There are a lot of variables that contribute to mipple wear. These include the material that the nipple is made from, the type and quantity of the powder charge and the projectile type and weight. A heavy powder charge shooting a large bullet will wear a nipple much faster than a light charge and a small round ball.
When I remove the nipple for cleaning after shooting I always check the flash hole at the bottom of the nipple. If it shows any noticable wear or enlargement it is replaced. I always try and keep a few new spares around.
just my thoughts .... Pete