Originally Posted by
atfsux
Those of us who have been at this a while have lived long enough to see how things go up or down in value as availability changes.
In the 90s 5.45x39 rifles were expensive and so was the ammo because they were "exotic". But as we entered the 2000s (and especially after the expiration of the AWB in 2004), suddenly there was a flood of 5.45x39 guns and ammo as the former combloc countries tried to turn their surplus into cash. AK kits were just $100 at one point. While the cost of 5.56Nato ammo went up because we were expending so much of it on the battlefield, 5.45x39 was the cheapest option then. That's when I built my Polish Tantal, so I could blast away nearly as cheaply as we used to in the 90s with 7.62x39 when cheap Chinese ammo was just 8 cents a round. (Those were the days, baby!)
But was always bummed that there were never any components available for loading 5.45x39, so I started looking 5.56Nato AKs. I had a Chinese one, but those had gone up in value so much, I didn't want to shoot it. I finally plunked down the far too large a chunk of change ($775) to buy an Arsenal SLR106F, because as cheap as 5.45x39 was in 2007, I could still load 5.56 cheaper, by just a hair. 5.45 AK74s sold for just a little bit more than the hard-to-find 5.56 models because factory 5.56 was more expensive. The vast majority of AKs were still 7.62x39 partly because people liked the larger bullet, but also there was such a crap ton of surplus ammo for them across the globe, costs were low.
But now how the tides have turned.
The GWOT ended, and so did the rate of 5.56 consumption in the field. Production had caught up and stockpiles had been replenished, so it was affordable again. Sanctions on Russia had made sourcing 5.45x39 more difficult, therefor more expensive. (Same with 7.62x54R to a lesser extent.)
But then came the 2nd invasion of Ukraine, and NATO kicked into overdrive to back the Ukies. Now every European ammo fabricator prioritized production and delivery for the war effort. Anyone previously fabricating 5.45x39, 7.62x39 or 7.62x54R ceased nearly all domestic sales and diverted to Kiev. And all of this just as the ammo panic buying shortages from the pandemic were beginning to abate. Even die hard 7.62 AK guys were starting to seriously consider 5.56 models, and in fact been since the Russian sanctions had caused problems for a few years already.
So now, my Bulgarian 5.56 AK is worth over $2000 (according to Gunbroker), while my kit-built Polish Tantal will barely bring $1200.
But nothing stays the same.
The war in Ukraine will end. And as they convert fully over to Nato weaponry, all the former Russian stuff will be eventually surplussed out. 5.45 AK74 kits will one day be dirt cheap again, and all that 5.45 ammo will be on the market,...cheap. One of the first industries Ukraine will be able to use to bring in cash after the war will be firing up the ammo production lines at UKROP to export everything they're not stockpiling for themselves. Not within 5 years, mind you, or perhaps even 10. Even if the Russians retreated tomorrow, it will take many years of massive spending to bring Ukraine's military back up to where it needs to be for the next attempt. And when that happens, suddenly AK74 kits and ammo will make it all affordable again. 7.62x39 and 7.62x54R will recover long before that.
AKs used to be dirt cheap when the parts were easily obtained as surplus or made by cheap eastern bloc labor on original tooling. American manufacturers are only now finally beginning to figure out the appropriate bits that can be made with cheap automation and which still require manned forging and machining steps. This means American AKs are now finally approaching the reliability and durability of the originals,...but at prices reflecting the cost of American labor; which is why ARs are so affordable compared to AKs now.
When the ammo supply of 5.45 returns, you'll be happy you held onto your rifle. I'm certainly keeping mine.