What are the odds?

[marlinman93]

Two rifles built consecutively on the Marlin Ballard line 147 years ago, and today reside in the same gun safe together?
I was discussing early first year JM Marlin Ballard oddities with a friend tonight, and as usual I ended up at my gun bench taking guns apart to check features. He had asked if I noticed the first year Ballards had an oddball breech block, and firing pin system. Honestly after nearly 4 decades of collecting Marlin Ballard rifles I hadn't noticed the difference in firing pins, and firing pin screws. So I dug out 5 first year 1875 Ballard rifles, and dropped the breech blocks out of all of them one at a time.
In the process of checking them, and wanting to see when changes might have been made, I checked serial numbers. To my surprise I noticed the first JM Marlin Ballard #4 Perfection I'd purchased over 35 years ago was #596, in a #4 Perfection model. Then got to my Ballard-Pope three barrel set, and to my great surprise it is #595, and was purchased by me maybe 5 years ago?
After 147 years these two that came down the line together are united again, and I never knew it until today! I thought this was pretty darn neat.

[stubshaft]

The odds must be astronomical! Those are some beautiful rifles you have there.

[M-Tecs]

Love your collection and thanks for posting.

[gnoahhh]

Well, I'll be.

[Rapier]

The chance of the consecutive numbered pair, same model, still being in collectable condition and ending up in the same hands is an added multiple in their rarity.

[ascast]

Clearly the fog of old age is clouding up your brain. You might should one or two of those rifles to me for safe keeping.

[MrWolf]

Beautiful and a great coincidence.

[45workhorse]

Jealous I am!
Do you take them out and shoot them?
One of these days, maybe I'll come across ONE.

[GARD72977]

As many Ballards as you have........

[marlinman93]

The chance of the consecutive numbered pair, same model, still being in collectable condition and ending up in the same hands is an added multiple in their rarity.

Well the condition of the cased Pope set is as I found it, but not so much on the #4 Ballard! The #4 was a real mess when I bought it, as the bore was ruined by some idiot stuffing a turned down '03 Springfield barrel in it, and rechambering it to .30-30. Then he went further by stamping the outside of the barrel with, ".30-30 Black Powder Only".
So no saving that .45-70 barrel, and I had to get a new barrel and have it contoured to match the to match the original. Same for the wood. It was all there, and had the correct numbers matching buttplate, but huge cracks in the buttstock and pieces missing from the forearm. So had to make new wood to fit it. But it was a whopping $225 back then, and being a very early Ballard built by Marlin from leftover Brown Mfg. parts, it was well worth saving.

[marlinman93]

Jealous I am!
Do you take them out and shoot them?
One of these days, maybe I'll come across ONE.

I shoot all of my old single shot rifles, and not just occasionally. They get shot at our local club range for fun, and in matches also. Nothing I own is a safe queen that doesn't see use. I've even taken deer with some of them and packed them around the hills if the weather was dry. I don't take them out hunting if it's rainy, as I avoid abusing them.

[marlinman93]

As many Ballards as you have........

Now I need to go through all my records, just to see if I've overlooked any others that might be the same. Doubt it, as that would be bordering on miracle status with about 40,000-50,000 Ballards made, and my collection is only 24 Ballard rifles.

[45workhorse]

I shoot all of my old single shot rifles, and not just occasionally. They get shot at our local club range for fun, and in matches also. Nothing I own is a safe queen that doesn't see use. I've even taken deer with some of them and packed them around the hills if the weather was dry. I don't take them out hunting if it's rainy, as I avoid abusing them.

Good deal!!!!
I don't have a safe queen either.
How did the barrel fit around the neck of Bubba the gunsmith

[garbler]

Odds and coincidence likely but if you find the same pair of hands worked and built both rifles then I believe we are talking Fate.

Rick

[fatnhappy]

statistically speaking:1

That's pretty amazing

[marlinman93]

Odds and coincidence likely but if you find the same pair of hands worked and built both rifles then I believe we are talking Fate.

Rick

Since Marlin firearms were all hand built, the odds some workers were involved in handling or building parts for both guns would be quite good. But that's over 150 years ago now so probably not going to ask workers which guns they worked on now.