VIRGEL has no way to guess the expanded diameter. You have to enter it yourself. It looks like I used 0.50" to peg penetration at 18" and maximize the "Defense Wound Mass." That might be about right for an XTP. But most others expand too much (in my humble and unbiased opinion) limiting penetration and wound mass. I just checked the Wolberg data (from the first issue of the Wound Ballistics Review) and it looks like early 1990's vintage Winchester 147 grainers averaged closer to 0.54" in actual autopsy measurement. That works out to a wound mass of 38 instead of 40 grams. But close enough for government work.
Thanks for trying VIRGEL. And I like the way you described it -- a neat toy. VIRGEL certainly isn't gospel. But it is a neat toy once you get the hang of running it.