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Thread: Out of Control Cost Of Powder And Primers At LGS

  1. #21
    Boolit Master Bad Ass Wallace's Avatar
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    The powder, primer, boolit shortage is everywhere, people are advertising powder which retailed for $AU105 for $AU800 and getting it.

    https://usedguns.com.au/gun/459580/

    As licensed pistol shooters, we are required to attend up to 16 competition shoots every year but the authorities don't give us any leeway because of lack of ammunition or components.
    Hold Still Varmint; while I plugs Yer!

  2. #22
    Boolit Master

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    I know this isn't a popular opinion, but I predict <$50 primers and <$30 powder easily once supply catches up with demand. When/if the opposition party retakes the house this fall, panic should subside, demand will relax, and prices will fall. I've seen a number of these things (though never this bad), and that's how it always goes. I've seen primers a couple times in the last few months, small quantities at big box stores. They limit sales to two trays, and the price has been about $6/100. They go quick, but they're still making money at that price.

    There's a common misconception about market forces. Whether it's gas, groceries, or ammo, you hear people say "Now that they know we'll pay that much, prices will never go back down!"

    Fortunately that's not how it works. Yes, in times when demand is greater than supply, some WILL pay that much. When demand levels off and supply catches up, guess what: the shelves are full because on average people won't pay that much. So, prices come down to what buyers will pay. If prices fall below the cost of production, some manufacturers will go out of business, causing supply to decrease, causing prices to rise again.

  3. #23
    Boolit Master


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    Quote Originally Posted by fatelk View Post
    I know this isn't a popular opinion, but I predict <$50 primers and <$30 powder easily once supply catches up with demand. When/if the opposition party retakes the house this fall, panic should subside, demand will relax, and prices will fall. I've seen a number of these things (though never this bad), and that's how it always goes. I've seen primers a couple times in the last few months, small quantities at big box stores. They limit sales to two trays, and the price has been about $6/100. They go quick, but they're still making money at that price.

    There's a common misconception about market forces. Whether it's gas, groceries, or ammo, you hear people say "Now that they know we'll pay that much, prices will never go back down!"

    Fortunately that's not how it works. Yes, in times when demand is greater than supply, some WILL pay that much. When demand levels off and supply catches up, guess what: the shelves are full because on average people won't pay that much. So, prices come down to what buyers will pay. If prices fall below the cost of production, some manufacturers will go out of business, causing supply to decrease, causing prices to rise again.
    Right on. I've been saying this for years.

  4. #24
    Boolit Master Hannibal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fatelk View Post
    I know this isn't a popular opinion, but I predict <$50 primers and <$30 powder easily once supply catches up with demand. When/if the opposition party retakes the house this fall, panic should subside, demand will relax, and prices will fall. I've seen a number of these things (though never this bad), and that's how it always goes. I've seen primers a couple times in the last few months, small quantities at big box stores. They limit sales to two trays, and the price has been about $6/100. They go quick, but they're still making money at that price.

    There's a common misconception about market forces. Whether it's gas, groceries, or ammo, you hear people say "Now that they know we'll pay that much, prices will never go back down!"

    Fortunately that's not how it works. Yes, in times when demand is greater than supply, some WILL pay that much. When demand levels off and supply catches up, guess what: the shelves are full because on average people won't pay that much. So, prices come down to what buyers will pay. If prices fall below the cost of production, some manufacturers will go out of business, causing supply to decrease, causing prices to rise again.
    In a free market economy this is correct. However, we do not have that in the United States. The government manipulates the price of goods on a regular basis, sometimes unintentionally and sometimes on purpose.

  5. #25
    Boolit Master
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    above my pay grade to try and say how or why. all I know is what I see when I search through the internet and look at what different sellers price goods at and what happens in auctions. for example in the past year or so ago right here in the swap and sell section, someone was selling I think it was 357 mag brass once fired for $30/100= $300/1000 plus postage and it all got bought up but now starline has it and many others back in stock and new 357 mag brass is $167/1000 with free shipping. is this supply and demand? it wasn't all that long ago I watched people on gun broker bid a jug of imr4350 up to $800. so you can pay crazy prices from sellers that think they gonna get rich or you can just wait till the tried and true fair and square dealers get inventory back in stock.

  6. #26
    Boolit Master
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    This current component pickle I think has been worse and longer due to the perfect storm of an election cycle with unfavorable gun rights results, the pandemic and supply chain issues, social unrest and maybe even the war in Ukraine with its drain on matériel.

    My impression is that experienced reloaders that have gone through a few shortages stock up if they have the financial resources to do so, but this has been dragging on so long that some are now looking at the last dregs of what they have. New reloaders were caught unawares and are starved for supplies.

    All that being said, I have the feeling that even when supply chain and other issues are resolved and components finally get directed back to the reloading market, prices will stay high and availability still tight for a while because of pent up demand as those caught short swear “never again” and buy well beyond current need to create their own stockpiles.

    Afterwards, maybe as much as after the next presidential election, assuming no new jolts, availability may be back to normal. With inflation, though, I doubt we’ll ever see $25/K or $15/# again.
    Last edited by kevin c; 07-25-2022 at 12:07 AM.

  7. #27
    Boolit Buddy gc45's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fatelk View Post
    I know this isn't a popular opinion, but I predict <$50 primers and <$30 powder easily once supply catches up with demand. When/if the opposition party retakes the house this fall, panic should subside, demand will relax, and prices will fall. I've seen a number of these things (though never this bad), and that's how it always goes. I've seen primers a couple times in the last few months, small quantities at big box stores. They limit sales to two trays, and the price has been about $6/100. They go quick, but they're still making money at that price.

    There's a common misconception about market forces. Whether it's gas, groceries, or ammo, you hear people say "Now that they know we'll pay that much, prices will never go back down!"

    Fortunately that's not how it works. Yes, in times when demand is greater than supply, some WILL pay that much. When demand levels off and supply catches up, guess what: the shelves are full because on average people won't pay that much. So, prices come down to what buyers will pay. If prices fall below the cost of production, some manufacturers will go out of business, causing supply to decrease, causing prices to rise again.
    the

    I agree here. Many won't buy at current prices..My gun club has become a morgue most of the time where it used to be packed every day...I sort of don't mind either as the range had been taken over by all the AR-15 shooters firing as fast as possible seemed like. They show up in camo with 20 mags and with all their military garb on, why I don't know, but now with ammo prices going up they have really diminished and the range is more pleasant again..

  8. #28
    Boolit Master
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    Yep,the good old days,when someone would fire a round,check the target with their scope,maybe make a small adjustment,note the adjustment,then carefully lift another round from their box ,have a look see if anyone else was about to fire,then carefully chamber the round ,and so on.........how different to one of these nit wits showing you a target with holes all over the place,and say..."pretty good shooting ,eh ,old man."

  9. #29
    Boolit Buddy
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    Well Im really pleased to read the last two posts,as it makes what Im about to say seem not so radicle....
    there would be no shortages if people shot what they needed to do and werent simply mag dumping for the heck of it...
    Ive watched videos from good ol USA of folks shooting down drowns piloted across a feild for them to shoot,and blitzing cars with everything up to and including anti aircraft belt fed weapons.... all line up and let rip,using in minutes enough ammunition to feed a small country.
    Im not saying "thou shalt not waste ammunition' far from it...but its a bit on the nose to do so and then whinge there is not much left on shelves.
    we seeing the same thing here with prices ,some auctions online go to crazy prices...6.5mm projectiles are going for up to #2NZ per pill so close to dollar a round US...... crazy money...loaded rounds up to $7NZ for simple stuff and up to $20 for premium.......stuff that,my reloading keeps my price below dollar a round and luckily I have enough supplies to last for years.
    speaking of magdumping...Ive even seen guy cooking bacon on suppressor can buy mag dumping......must be wonderful for guy selling new barrels and amunition to see that...like the tyre guy listening to burnouts in carpark,all he hears is cha chinggg of cash register.

  10. #30
    Boolit Master
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    Funny you should mention that.....I live next to a Mc Donalds/Gas station,and since the high price of fuel hit ,the nightly street racing ,burnouts ,giant pickups blowing black smoke and flame ,even the drug dealers in their pimped convertibles have just about disappeared.......maybe one loud exhaust every couple of hours.....and with the deserted roads,the speed men are a sitting target for the cops.......one more modified car in the impound waiting the monthly visit of the shreader..........there is the real "gone in 30 seconds "....into scrap metal.

  11. #31
    Boolit Grand Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by fatelk View Post
    I know this isn't a popular opinion, but I predict <$50 primers and <$30 powder easily once supply catches up with demand. When/if the opposition party retakes the house this fall, panic should subside, demand will relax, and prices will fall. I've seen a number of these things (though never this bad), and that's how it always goes. I've seen primers a couple times in the last few months, small quantities at big box stores. They limit sales to two trays, and the price has been about $6/100. They go quick, but they're still making money at that price.

    There's a common misconception about market forces. Whether it's gas, groceries, or ammo, you hear people say "Now that they know we'll pay that much, prices will never go back down!"

    Fortunately that's not how it works. Yes, in times when demand is greater than supply, some WILL pay that much. When demand levels off and supply catches up, guess what: the shelves are full because on average people won't pay that much. So, prices come down to what buyers will pay. If prices fall below the cost of production, some manufacturers will go out of business, causing supply to decrease, causing prices to rise again.
    I tend to agree as well.

    It will take longer to reach the "new normal" because people have learned their lesson. Many folks will start building stock at $75/k and they will buy more when there is a "sale" at $60/k. Only a fool or a poor person will not have a decent safety stock after what has happened. Many folks will be tapped out after putting up 20k primers. Demand will plumet.

    Manufacturers will continue to run full out and prices will inch down. I think $50/k is very possible. "Hoarders" like me will wait it out. We are not the problem...we are not feeding the beast.
    Don Verna


  12. #32
    Boolit Grand Master

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    Quote Originally Posted by ACC View Post
    Why go to a gun shop that over prices everything? I haven't been in one in years. The last three guns I have bought was at Academy Sports. Prices cheaper than any gun shop around here.

    Some say if you buy from a gun shop and something goes wrong the gunsmith can fix it. I have bad news for any gun people around here. None of the gun shops in San Antonio have gunsmiths as of this writing except one. Only Dury's has a gunsmith. The way they are NOW working is that you pay to have them fix your gun THEN claim against the gun company. Just ask my BinL how well that works.

    ACC
    First time in the place. If they would have matched KY Gun and the FFL fee of, say, $25 for $610 id have walked out with it. BTW: powder had dust on it so no one was buying it
    I Am Descended From Men Who Would Not Be Ruled

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  13. #33
    Boolit Master FISH4BUGS's Avatar
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    This kind of stuff is exactly why I stocked up in 2019. I have almost enough to last me the rest of my days (if I can stay away from full auto mag dumps )
    Collector and shooter of guns and other items that require a tax stamp, Lead and brass scrounger. Never too much brass, lead or components in inventory! Always looking to win beauty contests with my reloads.

  14. #34
    Boolit Master


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  15. #35
    Boolit Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by fatelk View Post
    I know this isn't a popular opinion, but I predict <$50 primers and <$30 powder easily once supply catches up with demand. When/if the opposition party retakes the house this fall, panic should subside, demand will relax, and prices will fall. I've seen a number of these things (though never this bad), and that's how it always goes. I've seen primers a couple times in the last few months, small quantities at big box stores. They limit sales to two trays, and the price has been about $6/100. They go quick, but they're still making money at that price.

    There's a common misconception about market forces. Whether it's gas, groceries, or ammo, you hear people say "Now that they know we'll pay that much, prices will never go back down!"

    Fortunately that's not how it works. Yes, in times when demand is greater than supply, some WILL pay that much. When demand levels off and supply catches up, guess what: the shelves are full because on average people won't pay that much. So, prices come down to what buyers will pay. If prices fall below the cost of production, some manufacturers will go out of business, causing supply to decrease, causing prices to rise again.
    When .22 LR was impossible to find in 2013-2015 people said $75 to $100 per brick of 500 was the new price and would stay that way forever. I stocked up in 2018 when prices dropped back to $18 to $20. I checked Brownells a few times last week and every single time I looked they had pistol primers, rifle, or both in stock. I just looked right now and they have CCI and Remington. You can get small or large and pistol or rifle. Supply is finally starting to catch up. You can go to Zincpoint.com and buy 10,000 small pistol primers from Argentina for $770. You can go to CapitalCartridge.com and buy 5,000 Bosnian primers for $450. Once everyone is stocked up with what they think they "need" prices will have to come down. The panic buying is subsiding. Prices will come down eventually.

  16. #36
    Boolit Master Shawlerbrook's Avatar
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    I do hope those that are optimistic about the future supply and prices are correct. That said, I doubt that primers will ever be readily available for $50 or less per thousand. I do hope I am wrong, but raw materials and politics just will not let that happen.

  17. #37
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    I was able to buy CCI SPP for $8.99 per tray. Limited to two trays. IMR 4895 was $32 a pound. Lots of bullets available, but still no cases.

    Ammo shelves are full, but prices are still up about 50%. Blazer Brass 9mm, which was about $12 a box a couple of years ago, is now $18. The only ammo I've purchased the last two years has been 5.56 since I have a couple of firearms in it and don't reload for it.
    "Luck don't live out here. Wolves don't kill the unlucky deer; they kill the weak ones..." Jeremy Renner in Wind River

  18. #38
    Boolit Master

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    Quote Originally Posted by reddog81 View Post
    When .22 LR was impossible to find in 2013-2015 people said $75 to $100 per brick of 500 was the new price and would stay that way forever. I stocked up in 2018 when prices dropped back to $18 to $20.
    Same here. I'm set for a decade for .22 LR, even with kids who like to go tot he range with me. I don't stock up like some of you all do, but for my purposes, I have a LOT. I didn't quite do that with primers, even though I saw them at gun shows here and there for as low as $100/5k. I know the local fire marshal personally, and am aware of local storage ordinances, so I didn't want to go nuts. It wasn't until later that I realized I could have stored them in a friend's shop out of town. Oh, well. I'm not into competition or high-volume shooting in general, so I'm still fine for the near future. Barring highly unusual circumstances, and assuming that the (R) party regains congress this fall, I expect that we'll have another reprieve, for at least a little while.

    I fully expect prices to drop, but how fast and how far is the question, like dverna says. This panic/shortage has been the worst and longest yet, so there are millions of us just waiting to buy when prices fall to whatever price each of us is comfortable with. It may take some time to fill all the shelves and find a nice supply/demand equilibrium again.

    Speaking of high-volume shooting, it's interesting how the firearm culture has changed over the decades. When I was young it was primarily about hunting. The only guys that I ever saw shooting huge quantities were the machine gun guys, typically well-off professionals (doctors, lawyers, etc.) who could afford such things. I have nothing against ARs and such, did the "mag-dump" thing myself when I was younger, but I do often wish that it wasn't ALL about tactical, all the time now.

    Quote Originally Posted by john.k View Post
    Yep,the good old days,when someone would fire a round,check the target with their scope,maybe make a small adjustment,note the adjustment,then carefully lift another round from their box ,have a look see if anyone else was about to fire,then carefully chamber the round ,and so on.........how different to one of these nit wits showing you a target with holes all over the place,and say..."pretty good shooting ,eh ,old man."
    Funny story- I was at the rifle range a while back, and there was a guy there with a new AR. He and I were the only ones there, and he was clearly enjoying "sighting in" his new toy, but also clearly had no idea what he was doing.

    Personally I would have removed the upper and BCG, and bore sighted so the first round at least hit the target. I'd have had it on paper at 100 yards on the first shot. If it's was a reasonably quality rifle, it would be sighted in with a small handful of rounds.

    What he did was fire a 30 round magazine, look carefully at the buckshot-size 25 yard group, tinker with his red dot sight a little, then blast off another 30 rounds. I didn't know him, and he wasn't asking for help so I generally minded my own business, other than saying hi and offering a hand if he could use it, which was politely declined. After a while, the ground was littered with brass, he proclaimed his rifle "sighted in", and he left with a big smile on his face. I picked up the empties he left behind, and as I recall it was something like 450 rounds.

    Another short story- about 20 years ago I took a coworker shooting. He was a young guy who just got out of the Marines. I brought several different rifles, including a Colt AR15. In my bag of ammo I had a pouch with three 30-rnd magazines. We got set up and he started with the AR, put in a mag- BLAM,BLAM,BLAM... empty. Before I could even say anything, he swaps it out and empties the second one, and then the third, not really even hitting much. He then looked at me and asked for more mags! I didn't know what to say, other than something about how I wasn't the Marine Corps and didn't have an unlimited supply. I think maybe he sincerely didn't know how much ammo costs. I never offered to take him shooting again; he never even offered to help pay for some ammo. Nowadays I never bring full magazine like that. Ninety rounds of store-bought ammo costs more than I typically spend on my wife on a date!

  19. #39
    Boolit Buddy ACC's Avatar
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    You could always go across the border into Mexico and get really cheap primers and powder. The last time I was there in April spp were 40 pesos ( about 8 bucks at the current rate) per 1000. Now getting them across the border will be a trick although I have known folks to do it.

    They also have brass and bullets.

    You would have to go to a major city not just a border town. Monterey, Matamoros, Mexico City. Some town like those.

    ACC

  20. #40
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    Seems if there were a reasonable supply of $8 per thousand primers in Mexico they would be being imported. If we can import from Bosnia, Mexico shouldn’t be a problem.
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Abbreviations used in Reloading

BP Bronze Point IMR Improved Military Rifle PTD Pointed
BR Bench Rest M Magnum RN Round Nose
BT Boat Tail PL Power-Lokt SP Soft Point
C Compressed Charge PR Primer SPCL Soft Point "Core-Lokt"
HP Hollow Point PSPCL Pointed Soft Point "Core Lokt" C.O.L. Cartridge Overall Length
PSP Pointed Soft Point Spz Spitzer Point SBT Spitzer Boat Tail
LRN Lead Round Nose LWC Lead Wad Cutter LSWC Lead Semi Wad Cutter
GC Gas Check