The pendulum swings. What’s after 9mm?

[Tonto]

Use the fishing lure analogy. Flashy, wiggly, sinking, floating, bright, dull, noisy, quiet, articulated and on and on. The guns and calibers that come and go and come and go again are promoted by the industry trying to extract money from their market (us.). Look at the new red dots on semi autos, tricked out bolt guns. New and improved for the sale. 9, 40, 45 and just about everything else will work for most applications. Semi autos, revolvers, single shots all have their place. In the end, the industry writes about worms and 22’s about once a year. I like them all.

[Tokarev]

But unless the anatomy of bad guys changes, I suspect that the 9mm will remain with us.

The anatomy has changed over that time. The average height and weight have grown dramatically. A round that had been adequate 100 years ago may not be anymore.

[megasupermagnum]

If I have to throw out a guess, nothing significant will happen until a new firearm is invented. By that, I mean some other type of semi-auto. Once something other than the current tipping barrel (I consider the rotary a variation of the same), recoil operated semi auto pistol is invented, then things will change. Until then, 9mm luger is about as perfect as it gets in the current handguns we have. Yes, I get the irony of the cartridge originally coming out in a toggle action. My feeling is that the slide action pistols as we know them will change. I'm thinking a fixed frame, and moving internals. I also don't think this will happen for decades.

[dverna]

There will be nothing better than the 9mm for police duty in my lifetime.

What you or I use is immaterial.

BTW, history should not be ignored. After over 100 years, what caliber is still the most used?

[reddog81]

With the availability of primers these days I’d go with a flint lock.


Just kidding. I’ll hopefully be shooting the 100+ year old 9mm and 45ACP cartridges for the next couple decades. They get the job done. The current crop of 9mm carry guns are so small that if they go any smaller they’ll have to get rid of the grip or barrel.

[doghawg]

I prefer the accuracy, feel, and re-loading ease of the 38, 44, and 45 in revolvers ANY day! I rarely shoot my semi's in 9mm and 40 S&W any longer. Too difficult to get the load/length JUST right for the 9's. And accuracy is something to really wish for with those guns! Close up, they are OK but I like at least 40-60 yards.



banger

You need to try a Dan Wesson PM9.

[Finster101]

The loyal following of what works works Been carrying 1911 45 acp since 1972 Short , fat and slow will get the job done GW

We have never met. How do you know I'm short, fat and slow?

[fatelk]

The 9mm is really nothing special, other than the fact that it's pretty much the all-around right balance of size, weight, and power for most people under most circumstances. It's somehow disappointing for those of us who like .45 and the like, but there seems to be a mountain of evidence that the 9mm is as effective in most circumstances as the larger calibers (with modern ammo), and is easier for the average person to control.

Funny thing is that the same evidence seems to show that anything .380acp and up are about equally effective, though 357 mag is still the king. I find it interesting to read through the studies on stopping power and handgun ballistics. They show that statistically the .380 is plenty good enough and most gun uses are over with just a few rounds fired. This tells me that I'd be just as well off, on average, with a 2" J-frame .38 (with good bullets) or a little .380 LCP, as someone else with a 1911 or Glock 19 on their hip.

Yea, it seems counterintuitive, and I'm not saying that I entirely believe it, but it does make me wonder.

[Bmi48219]

The guns and calibers that come and go and come and go again are promoted by the industry trying to extract money from their market

I agree with Tonto, there are hundreds of pistol cartridges out there, of which 5 or 6 are accurate, powerful and shootable enough for 95% of situations encountered by LEO & SD shooters. For a “new” cartridge to be profitable it has to meet the requirements of accuracy, power and shootability, AND firearm manufacturers have to produce lots of reliable weapons that chamber it. That doesn’t mean firearm and ammo manufacturers are going to quit trying. They’re the only group with more at stake in the Second Amendment than us. Back in the 1870’s semi auto pistols were a novelty, pretty sure they outnumber revolvers now. How much of the popularity of Pistol Caliber Carbines results from the fact everyone already has pistols, rifles, shotguns, ARs and every other form of firearm? Marketing something NEW and desirable makes money.
In the short term I don’t see the ammo guys investing to produce a “new” cartridge when they can’t meet current ammo demand.
I believe the next change will be to case-less ammo. Or to separate ignitable gas propellant and projectile systems, like the butane powered nail guns in use now. Either way, reloading ammo becomes way harder to do and easier to track. When the DoD adopts case-less ammo Everyone Else will follow suit.

[country gent]

As,someone has mentioned the gyro jet I will also interject the old daisy vl cartridge. Not that either of these would be brought back, but I expect here shortly the new big fad will be caseless ammo in some form. A 38 or 9 mm caliber with no case to deal with would aid reliability do away with the need for extractors and ejectors make for a smaller arm. The action could be sealed to outside elements.

[DDriller]

10mm is on it's way back up.

[ohen cepel]

I think 9mm will be on top for a long time unless there is another Miami type of failure using 9mm HP ammo. Not likely, but a high profile failure of the 9mm again may cost it some fans. It is a good balance for a handgun.

Yes, 10mm is coming back but not in the police world. Seems to be more for the non-wheel gun guys who stick to autos but want more power.

[megasupermagnum]

BTW, history should not be ignored. After over 100 years, what caliber is still the most used?

I'm just throwing out a guess, but 2 3/4" 12 gauge I'd assume?

[LaPoint]

I doubt that Law Enforcement will go away from semi-auto handguns for several reasons. They are easier to train non-shooters to shoot accurately. It takes more fine motor skill to reload a revolver, even using speed loaders or moon clips. Most people getting into law enforcement are no longer firearms people. Besides capacity, revolvers often can not be brought back into service in the field once a stoppage occurs from a squib load. Revolvers are a fine watch, mechanically speaking, whereas the latest fantastic plastic combat tupperware (striker fired composite frame semi-auto) is a sun dial. I started in the late '80s and was issued a S&W model 13, Shortly after that we were allowed to carry our own semi-auto and I carried a S&W 4506. Next was a Colt Combat Commander in .45 ACP. After that was a S&W Sigma in .40 S&W. Next it was a Glock 22C with night sights (.40 S&W). Last was a Glock 17 in 9MM.
The Colt Combat Commander empty, weighed the same as the Glock #17 with a full magazine. I love revolvers and still shoot them frequently. The Colt Combat Commander was my favorite to shoot but appreciated the reduced weight of the plastic handguns. Most Law Enforcement agencies aren't willing to spend the time and money to keep their people proficient with a single action semi-auto. I apologize in advance for the long winded rant.

[Bigslug]

9mm's hold lots of bullets without massive grips, unlike the .45.

9mm's don't wear out guns with undue speed, unlike the .40.

Most folks can reload a 9mm faster than a revolver.

The non-shooters can learn to shoot them passably without flinching.

They cost less to feed than "starts with a 4", or throws grainage above 200.

The terminal ballistics problem has been effectively solved - bigger isn't really enough better to offset the other perks.

The current rage seems to be offering a "NEW!" package to put it in, but I predict the Glock system with it's bombproof finish, easy serviceability, ease of use, and reasonable cost will outlast most of them. It - chambered in 9mm - really is the new 1911 in that regard, and it will probably have similar longevity.

[W.R.Buchanan]

I read the FBI report about that is why the FBI went back to the 9mm from the 40 S&W. I read it on a Law Enforcement blog. To many female agents had trouble qualifying with the 40. That at least is not a myth.

It's not a myth but it is an indication that their training is not all that. I have been to more than a dozen Pistol classes at Front Sight. When I started in 2006 nobody shot a 9MM. They all shot .40's in Glock 22's. I have seen way too many women outshoot me at that time with those guns and the reason why was better training from the start. They were taught a solid grip from the start and then sight alignment and trigger control in that order and they succeeded It is training that is far superior to the vast majority of Police Departments out there including the FBI which is supposed toe be the Ne Plus Ultra of firearms training. Seen too many cops in these classes that couldn't shoot worth a hoot.

Sure a 9MM in the same Pistol is easier to shoot but the fact that you have 2-3 more rounds on board is not going to save you when you have to make a shot, and can't do it because you can't shoot in the first place. They can't shoot under pressure becuase they haven't been trained under pressure. They can't even draw and hit a target under time pressure at 3,5,7,10,15 yards let alone farther. And making a head shot beyond 7 yards is out of the question. Please don't take that Hostage shot!!!

Lots has been said about the 9MM being superior because of better ammo and specifically bullets. However they always fail to realize that the ammo companies did the same things to .40 S&W and .45 ACP ammo as well and with handguns rounds, bigger is always better!

One or two well placed .40's or .45's is always better than 5 poorly placed 9mm's

And as far as "fight stoppers" go, every Police Cruiser in existence has a 12 ga. shotgun in it, but if the recoil of a .40 is too much then a shotgun is definitely going to be a problem.

I watched a Shotgun Qualification for "Coasties" at my range last summer and there wasn't one person who could run a pump action shotgun with any degree of proficiency! They had virtually no training and I got more in my first 2 Day Shotgun Class at Front Sight! Yet they still "qualified?" And they also got the snot beat out of them shooting 3"Mag Buckshot. The women got hurt big time so they are permanently scared of shotguns' now and when they have to board a ship where the occupants are armed and dangerous they will be at a serious disadvantage, and too scared to even pull the trigger..

What really makes me puke is the actual "Root Cause" (don't you just hate that term now?) for swallowing the 9MM pill. The Ammo is cheaper!

So theoretically they can train more. Except that doesn't seem to happen, and since they are fielding an inferior weapon with less stopping power, more of them will get killed in the end. Like to see the FBI Stats for that comparison. Officer Deaths while carrying 9MM vs .40 S&W. and # of shots fired per Kill.

A perfect example of what I'm talking about in "lack of training," was the Woman Cop with 27 years on the force, that got so caught up in the heat of the moment that she drew her Glock instead of her Taser and killed that kid while screaming Taser, taser, taser. She got convicted of 1st and 2nd Degree Manslaughter today and will be going to jail soon. Her lack of training was so obvious it was pathetic, and yet her Department probably "Thought" that she was trained very well? The operative word being "THOUGHT!!!" Cuz they didn't know either!

What really makes me puke is the actual "Root Cause" (don't you just hate that term now?) for swallowing the 9MM pill.

The Ammo is cheaper! Period!!!

My .02

Randy

[jonp]

...and too scared to even pull the trigger..

Adrenalin eats recoil

[762 shooter]

Carried and competed with a 1911 45 ACP for many years.

One day I had two of my pistols on the bench in front of me.

Colt 1911 7+1 and a Glock 43X 15+1.

I said, "Self, which one would would you give your opponent in a gunfight?"

People always say that no one ever wishes they had a smaller caliber in an altercation.

I can guarantee you that no one on this planet has ever said that they wish they had less ammo.

Given the current state of excellent bullet tech, a 9mm is not much different than an 11.5mm.

[Tazman1602]

I've lived through 3 different 9mm fads, crazes or whatever with the 40 short and weak thrown in since the 50's. I still prefer the 45 ACP......in a M1911 format.

^^^^^^^^^ THIS all day long for me.

Art

[Thumbcocker]

In the civilian realm at least, the fact is that the market is saturated. Anyone who really wants a gun has at least one. Guns are durable goods. They last a long time. Few guns are ever worn out.

So how do gun makers sell more guns? By convincing the buying public that their perfectly serviceable gun is no longer good. A fixed sight .38 special revolver is vastly inferior to a fixed sight polymer frame 9mm firing a cartridge that, for all practical purposes, is a ballastic twin to the .38 special. Go ahead and pick nits if you like, I am speaking generally here.

The buyer must be convinced that there is something wrong with the gun that they already have in order for more guns to be sold in a sodden market.