The pendulum swings. What’s after 9mm?

[shooting on a shoestring]

9mm is currently all the rage with police departments and it seems most civilians thinking self defense. And for a couple of good reasons. It’s cheap, easy to shoot and you can get lots of those little cartridges in a pistol.

Of course most of us remember when .40 S&W came out and displaced 9mm bc 40 had much better terminal performance. The FBI Miami shootout being a catalyst for the 10mm lite which morphed into .40 S&W. At that swing of the pendulum police departments were dumping 9mm guns cheap and 40’s were going for MSRP. Now guns in 40 are cheap and 9’s are full price.

Before the .40 S&W craze, the high capacity 9mm’s were the gun to have, displacing .357 Magnum revolvers, which displaced 38’s, which displaced 32’s…

So, I’d guess we’re about due for another swing away from 9mm to something else which will be perceived as a much better improvement. I’m wondering what that next thing might be.

A shift back to revolvers might be called for bc new shooters having less mechanical ability might do better with the simplicity of a revolver. Police departments wouldn’t have the problem of mag dumps in a suburban fight. Perhaps the bean counters could justify that revolvers use less ammunition and hence are cheaper (stupid but I said “bean counters”).

I could see an argument for moving to .327 Fed or .32 H&R. Heck what’s old might become new and the .38 Special might be the thing. Of course it would have to be touted as having some new bullet technology that makes it much more effective than 9mm.

What can y’all imagine as being the next hot thing?

[fastdadio]

I agree with your post. We've been watching the current trends flow one way or another back and forth for decades. I've learned a few things over the years. The more things change, the more they stay the same. I took advantage recently by picking up a nice police trade in high cap 9mm S&W mod 915 for low dough. Had it out yesterday, it's a fine shootin iron. But as I sit here on the porch watching the world go by, if the situation gets up close and ugly, I'm still reaching for my Colt 1911, and there's still no arguing with that one across the length of the porch.

[GhostHawk]

I can't speak for anyone else, but for myself I would much prefer shooting .32sw longs in a revolver compared to 9mm in a semi auto. But that is just me, YMMV.

[Froogal]

Before I bought my first semi-auto, I was seriously considering a .40 caliber, but then I noticed that 9mm ammo was everywhere, and the .40 caliber had to be hunted for, so I bought a 9mm.

Having said that, my go to for every day carry is a .38 special snubby.

[Larry Gibson]

I've lived through 3 different 9mm fads, crazes or whatever with the 40 short and weak thrown in since the 50's. I still prefer the 45 ACP......in a M1911 format.

[Baltimoreed]

Nostalgia is ok but I don’t think .38 special 158 gr round nose in 6 shot double action OP or M&P revolvers are ever coming back to a PD near you, Mayberry PD excepted of course.

[Mr Peabody]

I don't look to see the PD's move away from Glock or the 9mm.

[dverna]

9mm will be here for a very very long time. I have other calibers but the 9mm just works and works well. When I try to talk new self-defense gun owners into a revolver, I have not been successful. Too many other "experts" out there. And I understand new shooters, who are not skilled, wanting more rounds in the gun for spray and pray.

[Finster101]

Been carrying a .45 ACP 1911 for 30 plus years. I don't see that changing.

[Electrod47]

You know the Gyrojet was an absolute failure. But, it would not surprise me somebody somewhere is working on a similar platform right now.

[Baltimoreed]

Aren’t there precision guided munitions for 12 ga shotguns? Just a matter of making them smaller.

[35remington]

Whatever we are using now will seem dated and obsolete in 30 years and the way we currently hold and shoot pistols will be made fun of.

Doubt that? Google “FBI Crouch” “Weaver Stance” or 38 Special lead round nose.

We never settle on anything as a final answer and the role of “progress” sees change occurring more often over time.

Not saying one idea is “righter” than another. Just that we chase different and disparage the past. Welcome to the current way of doing things.

Who knows. The 9mm may get replaced by a saboted sub caliber round generating very high velocity in the future and the 9 will be chastised as being low velocity, incapable of penetrating soft armor and have too much recoil. Sound familiar?

The bell can toll for the nine, too. It has in the past, and it can again. It very likely will. Gotta have something new and mo betta to sell to keep the masses interested.

[memtb]

How about the 5.7x28! Low (OK almost no recoil) for the recoil timid, high capacity (for those that can’t hit their intended target), moderately light weight (minimal strength/conditioning required), relatively small grip size for all genders (even the imaginary ones) making it as politically acceptable as possible for those opposed to armed law enforcement! The future is here! memtb

[metricmonkeywrench]

How about a hard left into air/gas powered somewhere in the .25 to .40 range (round ball?) to appease the "high powered gun" or "guns of war" fearmongers.

[freakonaleash]

I have a couple 9mm's, I really don't care for them. 45 ACP works for me in semi auto and .44 special works for me in revolvers. Neither one has to be loaded all that hot to be effective.

[Battis]

Back in the 80s, there were 28 in my police academy class. We all had revolvers. Two of us had .357s - everyone else had .38s. At the range, it sounded like this: pop pop pop BOOOM pop. What are you shooting? I was asked. 1400 rounds later, my hand hurt. Then, in the 90s we switched to Sig Sauer .9mm (made in Germany at that time). After I left, they switched to .357 semi autos - now I think they're back to .9mm.
I'd like to see .45 acp for police.

[rintinglen]

I predict that the rule of the 9mm will be a long one. It does too many things right, and despite the myth of "4+," it is effective with good ammo when pointed straight. Now my last duty gun was a Sig 220 45 ACP, and I like it very much, but I have seen many new shooters struggling with more gun than they can handle. The 9mm does not present that problem, save for perhaps in some of the micro nine models. (Which would really be bears in a 40 or 45). 9mm's carry lots of ammo, reassuring to those who either can't shoot or think they're John Wicke. They are available in a wide variety of sizes to fit nearly any hand, ranging from duty weapons down to pocket sized. Something for everyone.

What comes next? Who knows: phasers? Lasers? Blasters? Hand flamers? Check Buck Rogers or Star Wars--those are as good a guess as any that I can make.

[Battis]

When I started as a cop, there were actually a few old timers carrying .38s with loops on their belts for extra rounds - no speed loaders.
That's a look you can't beat.

[yovinny]

This type talk always somehow reminds me of H&K announcing that all brass cased ammo would be obsolete by....
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1990.... LOL...

[AZ Pete]

The 9mm parabellum has been more than adequate for its designed purpose since 1901. There have been fads (one of the county sheriff departments in Texas adopted the .41 Mag in my young adulthood). But unless the anatomy of bad guys changes, I suspect that the 9mm will remain with us.