The pendulum swings. What’s after 9mm?

[bisleyfan41]

The 9mm isn't going anywhere ever, not until guns are no longer using brass cased, self contained cartridges. No other chambering will replace it. The 10 tried and failed. The 40 tried and failed.. the 357 sig tried and failed. Glocks ain't going anywhere either....ever. They just aren't. Logistics, effectiveness, universal popularity and acceptance worldwide.

My choice in an auto is the 1911 45 and prefer revolvers above them. But I'm not a cop or a soldier. I have Glocks and 9s, just don’t prefer them. However, I know they work well and have clarity in the reality the 9 ain't going nowhere.

[Bigslug]

You bring up a good question by asking "What is the current 9mm not doing that we need done?"
I would like to see that addressed in this thread.

About all I can honestly see is that:

1. It's not a true long range round, but if that's really in the cards, most bring a rifle. I can kinda see a need for something that can be concealed AND has reach if you're tasked to be the covert security at an outdoor gathering. In that regard, a toasty .357 or 10mm might trump a 9mm's capacity and rate of fire, but this is likely to be a specialized auxiliary role, because at the "kissing distances" handguns are usually deployed at, the 9mm answers the questions better - - and the .357 or equivalent still presents the problem of "many folks won't be able to shoot it well".

2. If you're fighting other nation states and their players are wearing body armor, the PDW rounds like the 5.7x28 - or even the old KTW - start making sense over ANY of the traditional "lump o' lead" handgun rounds. Thing is, the U.S. hasn't entered a declared war in 80 years, and the Hague Convention only applies if the quarrel is between signatories. My info may be a couple years out of date, but it appeared that the U.S. had decided 147 grain 9mm HP's were perfectly legal to use against terrorism-practicing NGO's. One could also argue that if you're close enough to the fight that the need to punch armor is likely, carrying a 5.56mm M4 Carbine is not that big of a burden.

3. It isn't a mover of kinetic targets. This is a gamer point, but if the game is to move a bowling pin off a table or dislodge a steel plate from its hangers, then mass and momentum (rather than penetrating to the spine and organ-filled center of the Tootsie Pop) start to matter again. The question here is this: If it is becoming widely accepted that "knockdown power" is no longer a valid concept by which to measure handgun effectiveness, then how long are games based on knocking bits of junk down going to persist if they no longer present an attachment to what is understood as reality?

4. Hunting niches. While 9mm non-expander can penetrate a lot, if you're trying to break the opposite shoulder of an elk, the .44's and .454's are still better.

And really all any of that does is keep certain other things from going extinct, but it doesn't "swing the pendulum" away from the 9mm at all.

[HumptyDumpty]

My copy of Cartridges Of The World is filled with all manner of very interesting rounds, many of which still linger on with some of us more eccentric handloaders. With modern propellants, projectiles, and properly designed firearms, I think there are quite a few that would far outperform 9mm and it's contemporary competitors, without generating prohibitive levels of recoil. Penetration of barriers and body-armor, without sacrificing terminal performance in soft tissue and bone, is something that most common handguns struggle with, and I think a solution does already exist; somebody just needs to sit down and look at what has already been designed, pick a round, and develop a gun around it. A specific example is my 45 Super. I currently have it outfitted with a flat-bottomed firing pin stop, and the 460 Rowland V2 Recoil Damper, permitting the use of a standard 16-pound reaction spring. Felt recoil and most importantly to me, muzzle-flip, is comparable to 45 ACP+P. The difference is that I am sending a 120 grain Lehigh Defense Extreme Defender downrange at 1600 FPS. That round recently blew a half-inch hole in one side of a propane tank, and dented the other side. Retained weight was 116 Grains. I strongly suspect that this would go through a soft vest. If not, something with a better ballistic coefficient might. I've also extracted some promising ballistics from 7.62 Tokarev, and will be experimenting with 400 CorBon in a CCO 1911 soon, in an effort to reach some very specific performance parameters. I'm not saying any of these rounds is a contender for dethroning the 9mm, just that there is a great deal of untapped potential in the dustbins of cartridge history.

[Jtarm]

I think the Heinie Nine is here to stay.

[Jtarm]

I can't speak for anyone else, but for myself I would much prefer shooting .32sw longs in a revolver compared to 9mm in a semi auto. But that is just me, YMMV.

With the exception of stuff like full-house magnums out of an M&P 340, I’d rather shoot just about any revolver than any semi-auto.

Nothing against bottom feeders, they’re just not my thing.

[35remington]

I took a guess based in a similar fashion why the military dabbled in PDW’s over pistols…..they wanted some improved penetrative capabilities with controllability and improved wounding effects over a pistol round.

If and when the 9mm is replaced my guess is it will take that form and no I don’t think the 5.7 is it. More speed than it produces from a pistol length barrel is needed. Don’t know if we can get there but making a pistol more like a small caliber high velocity rifle would be the obvious thing except for current physical barriers.

And no. I don’t believe things stay the same. Human nature wants change whether they need it or not.

[Cosmic_Charlie]

I'm just fine carrying the nine though I often tote a model 60 in a shoulder rig. I don't see the 9 being replaced either.

[Daekar]

I don't see 9mm going anywhere. It just does the job well enough. I prefer .380, personally, but that's not going to suddenly replace its bigger brother.

If the military adopts a high velocity round like the 22TCM or 5.7 or that sub-5mm round that H&K was pushing, I can see the market shifting a bit, but those would be brutal in CCW guns, I think.

[JimB..]

Apparently some hope it’ll be 30 Super

[FergusonTO35]

I could see revolvers coming back on a limited scale, especially in light of bad press created by spray and pray incidents. A seven shot .357 with a load tailored to strike a neat balance between power and easy to shoot would be an ideal choice.

[Tokarev]

9x21 and 9x23 make a lot of sense. Too bad not many manufacturers are willing to experiment with them.

[megasupermagnum]

I could see revolvers coming back on a limited scale, especially in light of bad press created by spray and pray incidents. A seven shot .357 with a load tailored to strike a neat balance between power and easy to shoot would be an ideal choice.

The biggest detriment to revolvers at this point is tradition. Anytime someone tries to innovate with a revolver, the shooting community cries out about how ugly it is, or how unnecessary. Personally I think Ruger is heading the right direction with the LCR. People today want modularity. A revolver with a tool-less removable firing control group would be the way to go. Along with that, I'd like to see more revolvers with removable barrels, which would definitely give a leg up over semi-autos in that you could choose a 2", 4", 6", or longer barrel with nothing else effected. Revolvers already handle neglect perfectly, but they don't handle abuse like a semi-auto will. I think a system to rotate the cylinder that wasn't so exposed would help tremendously. Finally, I think a revolver with the barrel on the bottom of the frame, and a vent rib on top like a Chiappa Rhino, although not so cartoonish, would be a good thing. There's always been a debate over bore axis, well a revolver like that blows even the lowest semi-auto out of the water. Maybe it's just my wishful thinking, but I think 327 federal is the perfect duty round for a revolver, and it's performance is about centered between 9mm luger, and 357 magnum. I think something SP101 or K frame size, that holds 7 rounds would be a great choice. You could probably get 8 rounds in a GP100 size gun.

[mcdaniel.mac]

Duty revolvers aren't coming back. Go watch a police range and see how they shoot with a 9mm, a heavier trigger isn't going to help anything, not will more recoil.

IMO "revolvers are simpler" is a myth. A semiautomatic is an engine, a revolver is a clock, and they both have complex moving parts and wear patterns. The "my grandpappy was shooting this here wheelgun for 50 years without a failure" is typically a story told about a gun that is shot less than a box per month over those years, and never hard. Revolvers have exposed critical areas that can allow objects to interfere with the cylinder operation, and whereas when an auto fails it's usually "tap rack bang" a revolver had two failure modes: pull the trigger again, or throw it because it's not firing until it gets to a gunsmith.

Ah, but inexperienced shooters! Yeah give em a 12lb trigger pull and tell me they do better. Reloading? Shoving rounds in a cylinder even with a speed loader is slower and clumsier than a magazine change until you get to expert levels of practice. Maintenance? See above. Aiming is the same. Recoil, usually stiffer in a wheelgun, or you're downloading to 9mm levels again. There's two things a wheelgun does that an auto doesn't: you can more easily cheat yourself by loading light practice rounds and ensure you're unprepared for real recoil, and you can cock the hammer for nice slow aimed shots. Problem being, if you manually cock the hammer under stress, now you have to decock it under stress. For an unexperienced shooter, that's an ND waiting to happen. The only upside is how quickly you can unload and clear a revolver, one motion instead of remembering to drop the magazine first and then clear the chamber.

I have high hopes for the .30 super carry, I like the math for it. It won't solve our police problems though, those come from bad training and bad mindset ("war on the streets, go kill bad guys") not from having 15 in the gun instead of 6.

For new shooters, they're gonna be safer with something like an S&W Shield EZ every time. Fewer bad habits to learn, easier to shoot.

[Bigslug]

This .30 Super Carry is slinging down some interesting marketing: "Almost 9mm performance, with two more rounds to solve the problem that you couldn't solve with a gun that already held TEN OR MORE".

This seems like they're trying to create a need in people's minds that does not currently/actually exist. If it's not the dumbest thing to be introduced in years, it's certainly being introduced at the dumbest possible time - due to both the current ascendance of the 9mm's popularity, and the current shortage of ammo for everything.

[ddixie884]

What he said............

Like

[rintinglen]

This .30 Super Carry is slinging down some interesting marketing: "Almost 9mm performance, with two more rounds to solve the problem that you couldn't solve with a gun that already held TEN OR MORE".

This seems like they're trying to create a need in people's minds that does not currently/actually exist. If it's not the dumbest thing to be introduced in years, it's certainly being introduced at the dumbest possible time - due to both the current ascendance of the 9mm's popularity, and the current shortage of ammo for everything.

I absolutely concur. This is 9mm federal rides again, a cartridge designed for a niche so small that there is no room for it to stand. 7.62 x 25 light.

[Oyeboten]

The .32 ACP, .380 ACP, and 9 mm P-'08, and .45 ACP have held up well these last 114 to 122 or so Years.

As has .38 Special these last 124 years...

[Tazman1602]

.45 ACP………because shooting twice is silly…..

Art

[Fernando]

.45 ACP………because shooting twice is silly…..

Art

Exactly

[gwpercle]

.45 ACP………because shooting twice is silly…..

Art

Art ... Lets Drink to that !
Gary