Federal Ammunition Boss Delivers a State of the Ammo Nation Update

[MUSTANG]

Given the dearth of Primers on the market; perhaps the industry producers could sell their "Seconds" at 2019 prices to get rid of them in a productive manner that does not impact their production line sales.

[kevin c]

The occasional dud in a bulk pack of cheap .22’s doesn’t faze me, but I’m less sure I’d be willing to accept a bad centerfire round because of funky priming.

But maybe I’m just not desperate enough, since I have primers enough to meet my current needs.

[Cosmic_Charlie]

I did see some new production Remington primers at a Scheel's a few months back. Took that as a positive thing.

[Bmi48219]

Given the dearth of Primers on the market; perhaps the industry producers could sell their "Seconds" at 2019 prices to get rid of them in a productive manner that does not impact their production line sales.

A few months back one of the supply houses (Midway?) showed CCI ‘Blems’ primers at decent prices, of course they were Out Of Stock. I’ve heard of blemished bullets and brass but can’t imagine blem primers.

[jonp]

As of September, firearm sales are still 13.4 million units over 2018 sales at the same point, which is down from the 15 million over 2018 for 2020. So over the last two years, close to 28 million guns have been sold over 2018. Of that, 8.5 MILLION where first time buyers in 2020 alone. As of June of this year, close to 3.2 MILLION were first time buyers, so it's not hundreds of thousands of new gun owners, its close to 12 million. That is where all the ammunition is going.

Hundreds of thousands of people that might actually travel to the range on a regular basis. Millions will buy a gun, shoot it few boxes and that will be it.

[M-Tecs]

Since I retired I work part-time at a gunshop. The store policy is that if it's on the shelf the only limit is your pocket book. A large percentage of the first time buyers would also purchase 3 to 5 thousand rounds of ammo per firearm. That has slowed somewhat due to significant price increases for ammo but lots of first time purchasers are still buying ammo by the case.

[mjwcaster]

Artificial scarcity theory only works if the manufacturers get the profit increase, which in the firearms world they normally don’t.

Ive always thought the issue with ammo and ‘price gouging’ is that the wrong people profit.
The manufacturer and retailers still only make their few bucks off of a case of ammo while a flipper can make hundreds with little work and investment.
If the ammo manufacturers could sell cases of 9mm for $500 during panics they could afford to have secondary plants waiting offline just to fill in spikes in demand.

As far as large factory expansions, from an outsider that looks like a foolish investment during a temporary spike in demand.
The firearms world is cyclical.

Anyone else remember 2019?
Ammo every where at the lowest prices in 10+ years.
$180 cases of 9mm shipped, sales and rebates on everything.
CCI had 20% rebates, and their products were already on sale at retailers, discounted/free hazmat or shipping.

2017 was the year of oversupply on firearms. Over supply, lowered demand after the election, low prices and rebates galore.
The next few years prices were still nice and low, the era of $500 AR’s.

Basing your capital investments on short term spikes in demand is a great path towards bankruptcy during lulls in the market.

And historically there will be large downturns in the very volatile firearms market.

Now an investment strategy built around filling a warehouse with ammo during cheap times and selling during panics could work out well.
Imagine investing a few hundred K in 9mm at $150 a case in 2019 (we bought local at that price).
Then selling off at $500-800 per case just a year later.
If your crystal ball worked well it would have been a nice profit.

Just my thoughts.


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[gwpercle]

I see your lips moving but I'm not hearing a danged thing you are saying .

I'm tired of excuses of why we can't ... Do something

[armoredman]

$500 ARs?
https://palmettostatearmory.com/psa-...h-7779346.html It IS a daily deal, but they are running a LOT of Daily Deals, and some are actually cheaper. $125.99 for an FDE classic AR lower.
Then...
https://palmettostatearmory.com/psa-...e-7779344.html Another daily deal, the matching FDE carbine length gas system classic upper, complete with BCG and CH.
But need...
https://palmettostatearmory.com/troy...s-r0bt-00.html Troy fixed rear Battlesight.
Minus tax, shipping and receive fee for the lower, price tag is $484.43. Just add mags and ammo

[dverna]

Artificial scarcity theory only works if the manufacturers get the profit increase, which in the firearms world they normally don’t.

Ive always thought the issue with ammo and ‘price gouging’ is that the wrong people profit.
The manufacturer and retailers still only make their few bucks off of a case of ammo while a flipper can make hundreds with little work and investment.
If the ammo manufacturers could sell cases of 9mm for $500 during panics they could afford to have secondary plants waiting offline just to fill in spikes in demand.

As far as large factory expansions, from an outsider that looks like a foolish investment during a temporary spike in demand.
The firearms world is cyclical.

Anyone else remember 2019?
Ammo every where at the lowest prices in 10+ years.
$180 cases of 9mm shipped, sales and rebates on everything.
CCI had 20% rebates, and their products were already on sale at retailers, discounted/free hazmat or shipping.

2017 was the year of oversupply on firearms. Over supply, lowered demand after the election, low prices and rebates galore.
The next few years prices were still nice and low, the era of $500 AR’s.

Basing your capital investments on short term spikes in demand is a great path towards bankruptcy during lulls in the market.

And historically there will be large downturns in the very volatile firearms market.

Now an investment strategy built around filling a warehouse with ammo during cheap times and selling during panics could work out well.
Imagine investing a few hundred K in 9mm at $150 a case in 2019 (we bought local at that price).
Then selling off at $500-800 per case just a year later.
If your crystal ball worked well it would have been a nice profit.

Just my thoughts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

One of the best posts on the subject IMO.

Most will not understand (or want to understand) because they have been caught short and want someone to blame...when they caused their situation by not preparing. What's sad are those who have been around for years and seem to forget the cyclic nature of ammunition and component supply.

[Four-Sixty]

At the public range I use, attendance is way down. The Range Officer I talked to blamed it on ammo being hard to obtain. Attendance is down enough they're reducing staffing at the range to only the weekends now.

At some point, does the lack of capacity inhibit growth of the firearms hobby?

[jgstrug]

One of the best posts on the subject IMO.

Most will not understand (or want to understand) because they have been caught short and want someone to blame...when they caused their situation by not preparing. What's sad are those who have been around for years and seem to forget the cyclic nature of ammunition and component supply.

So much has been said about hoarding that people who had a reasonable one year supply a year ago should get a little understanding.

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[M-Tecs]

So much has been said about hoarding that people who had a reasonable one year supply a year ago should get a little understanding.

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Having been through various shortages through the years I recommend a 5 year supply to be comfortable and a 3 year supply as a minimum. I shoot competitively and a really real slow year I expend 5,000 rounds but most years that is double or triple so yes it is a major investment and it does require sacrifices. My first gunpowder shortage was in the mid-70's when the BATF planned on requiring tagnets in the powder.

[Iowa Fox]

Did you guys see the red powder coated bullets? Sure would like to see a vid on the process they use for their volume.