The Magnitude of the .22 ammo shortage

[MtGun44]

My job is engineering, which uses mathematics to try to get
understanding of problems and seek prediction and solutions.
This whole .22 ammo thing has been getting to be pretty weird
and I wanted to try to use a bit of math to try to wrap my head
around the size of the problem, at least approximately.

I put a few numbers down to try to get a grip on the scope of our problem, at least the .22 part of it.

Looks like we are pretty seriously screwed for quite a while.

Two online sources (no way to verify) indicate max TOTAL US production capacity at 1.5 billion rounds
per year of .22 ammo. Another sources says 2.5 billion rounds per year.

So, if it is 1.5 billion (1,500,000,000) ROUNDS per year, that is 4.1 million rounds per day.
If it is 2.5 billion (2,500,000,000) rounds per year, that is 6.8 million rounds per day. These
are two reported values for TOTAL US production of .22 ammo.

In ten box BRICKS of 500 rds, this works out to between about 8,200 to 13,700 bricks per
day.

OK, here is where it gets totally crazy. I have heard that there are about 170 million gun owners
in the country. Assuming this is somewhere near true, what if 1% of them decided that they
needed to put 5 bricks of .22 ammo away "for a rainy day" OVER A YEAR'S TIME. This
works out to 1.7 million times 5 bricks or 8.5 million bricks of ADDITIONAL DEMAND, above
the normal useage rate of ammo, over the next year.

8.5 million bricks works out to 23,288 BRICKS per day - JUST IN ADDITIONAL DEMAND,
on top of the normal demand for shooting.

If total production is between 8,200 bricks and 13,700 bricks per day, then the ADDITIONAL
demand caused by 1 gun owner out of 100 gun owners wanting to buy 5 bricks during
the next year will be between 2.8 and 1.7 times the TOTAL capacity of the system.

This is pretty grim because I think that the shortage is CAUSING more people to decide that
they want to stockpile "a few bricks" more than what they normally use. I have to assume
that the normal production levels are approximately matched to the normal consumption levels.
There haven't been huge warehouses of .22 ammo piling up in normal years, as far as I know,
so it makes sense that production capacity is about the same as normal use.

So normal consumption approximately equals normal production and we need an additional
1.7 to 2.8 times normal production if 1 gun owner out of 100 decides to stockpile 5 bricks
OVER THE NEXT YEAR. If it is 5 % that choose to add 5 bricks to inventory over the
next year, the ADDITIONAL production requirement jumps to 8.5 to 14.2 times current
production.

HOLY COW!! If these numbers are ANYWHERE NEAR realistic we are in for a LONG
shortage. Bringing a new line up is reported to take 18 months from the time the go
choice is made.

The longer it runs, the worse it will be, because the more people are inconvenienced and
scared by a long shortage, the more they will react by wanting to store some ammo
away to avoid running out in the future. As Pogo said, "We have met the enemy,
and he is us."

PLEASE correct my math if I have gone off the rails somewhere. I hope I have.

Bill

[btroj]

Sums it up pretty well.

[contender1]

The only thing wrong I see with your numbers is the number of gun owners. According to the NRA, there are between 80 million & 90 million gun owners in this country. Not 170 million. So, use that figure to calculate the shortage. But, you still get a pretty big backlog of ammo delivery. The absolute best way to STOP this insanity is for people to NOT buy any ammo from ANY source that is above normal costs.
Just look at wally world. When they have ammo, the cost hasn't risen. Talk to the manufacturers,, and they say the manufacturing costs have not risen a lot.
It's the gougers,,, pure & simple preying upon the fears of any ban etc.
The bans as proposed by our wonderful politicians caused MANY folks who are CASUAL gun owners to decide to get off the fence & invest in a few things.
Remember,, with 80-90 million gun owners,, yet only 4-5 million NRA members,, do the math. The 5 million are the most active & informed. Double that number (taking into account the non NRA members who are active,) & you have 10 million active gun owners, out of the say 90 million who fight all the time against gun laws.
By the politicians wanting to restrict our rights, it has caused a lot of folks to want something, that they should be able to have, yet are being told is bad for them. (Sounds like Prohibitation from the 20's).
Maybe this is the kind of sleeping bear giant we need at the polls during the next election?
So, if we convince our friends & neighbors who are casual gun owners, (the non active bunch) to NOT buy any ammo from the gougers, it will cause the gougers to stop raping folks on the price of ammo.
Don't get me wrong,, I'm all for capitalism, but there's making a fair profit, & there is raping a customer.
Besides,, it's a federal law that you are SUPPOSED to have a FFL to sell ammo commercially!

[historicfirearms]

Besides,, it's a federal law that you are SUPPOSED to have a FFL to sell ammo commercially!

not true

[Sasquatch-1]

I was in the local Walmart yesterday (5-10-13) talking with the sales lady at the sporting goods counter. She told me that she can't get any of the .22 when it comes in and she is working. Also told me that there is a group that gets informed when the ammo arrives, comes in and buys most all they can and resells at flea markets. I am sure the person doing the informing must be getting a slice of the pie. Maybe it's time for BATF to start checking flea markets.

[Jim]

[QUOTE=contender1;2210887.....Besides,, it's a federal law that you are SUPPOSED to have a FFL to sell ammo commercially![/QUOTE]

I'm curious, where'd you get that information? That's new to me.

I ask because there are three businesses that I know of around here that carry ammunition and I know for a fact they don't have FFLs. Seems to me that if a business were required to have an FFL to sell ammo, ATF would have caught up with these people by now.

If ATF required a business to have an FFL to sell ammo, wouldn't the business be required to show proof of an FFL to buy it wholesale with intent to resell? If that were the case, how are these businesses that I speak of getting this ammo?

Something's not matchin' up here.

[btroj]

Time for the ATF to start checking on flea markets? Really?

Stop buying ammo at other than "normal" prices?

I love all these "solutions" to a panic. What we need to do Isit back, relax, and wait.

More government intervention is NOT the answer. How many little mom and pop places sell ammo at gun shows? I know I have purchased much Aguila 22 ammo from one in the Omaha area in the past.

If you don't have ammo and want to shoot then you can pay the price or not shoot. Pretty simple really.

[MtGun44]

OK, I stand corrected on the number of gun owners, but that doesn't change the
basic problem much.

If the system is set up to pretty much have capacity equal to normal amount that
is shot each year and even a small percentage of gun owners decide to "stock up",
this can suck the system dry and cause shortages. Once the shortages start,
there are people that can't get ammo for a while and they decide to "put a few
bricks aside" the next chance they get. This makes it a good bit worse.

I am one of the people that wants to have some extra in stock, so I know the
psychology.

This all feeds and extends the shortage. I think that this .22 shortage is going
to last a while.

I hope I'm wrong.

Bill

[WILCO]

As Pogo said, "We have met the enemy,
and he is us."

I disagree with that statement Bill. It ignores the fact that there are many new shooters to the firearms world. Many of these folks have purchased rimfire rifles and pistols, as it's the most common cartridge for beginners and, for a time, was the most economical choice for anyone starting out. We don't have a supply issue, it's a demand situation. Membership to my shooting club is at an all time high. Last week, I took a family of five out to the range. Out of the five, one is a reloader, one is a new gun owner after 30 years of not owning any and the other three are new shooters looking for firearms and ammo! Many folks are waking up to the economical and political reality
that are nation is facing. It's not a simple "Billy Bob Horton is hoarding ammo at Walmart" scenario. Demand for firearms and ammuntion is up and it isn't coming down anytime soon. Nice work on the math by the way.

[Blammer]

I think the overseas production of 22LR will help out.

[oldtrucks]

It's been mentioned in a similar thread that there are non gun owners buying ammo just to buy. Some of them want to be gun owners and fear they won't be able to get ammo, others are buying and reselling for the profit. With those kind of variables in play it's difficult to define the problem

[Vly]

The one positive moderating trend is usage appears to be decreasing. I know the 22RF shooting activity at my range has slacked off. When a brick is selling for $75, the mag dumps from the 10/22 shooters with the 25 and 50 rd magazines becomes much less.

[Love Life]

So when do we get free stuff? We were all promised free stuff...

On a serious note. Supply has not kept pace with demand on both the manufacturing side of the house and the reselling side of the house. People are still willing to pay to play. It's just the way things are.

Yes the "evil gouger guys" may be helping the problem, but the "Wahhhhhh!!!!! I can't buy my ammo, or buy ammo to resell myself is being caused by the evil gouger guys!!! WAHHHHHHHH" don't help either.

[Thumbcocker]

I am surprised that there is not more foreign .22 rimfire coming in. Any country that has any firearms in private hands probably manufactures .22's.

[dragon813gt]

I am surprised that there is not more foreign .22 rimfire coming in. Any country that has any firearms in private hands probably manufactures .22's.

This is where conspiracy theories enter the debate. Why aren't the imports here in large numbers? 22 was starting to dry up last summer. The Newtown tragedy just made things worse. So is the government preventing the imported ammo from coming in? I've dealt w/ customs on plenty of occasions. They are like any other government agency and run at their own sluggish pace. I've heard all type of rumors as to where all the imported ammo is. If someone could manage to get a container of 22lr shipped over they would be able to retire off the profits.

[35isit]

On average I shoot maybe 3 bricks of "plinking .22s" a year. But I shoot 2 bricks plus of foriegn higher grade target ammo per year. I can't find it by the brick anywhere. I can buy it 2 boxes at a time occasionally. If the foreign manufacturers were going to ease the situation, wouldn't we be seeing that ammo on the shelves?

On a side note. I was asked by a fellow club member if I had any ammo to sell. He didn't need it to shoot. Said it sold like hot cakes on the internet and he had sold all he had and was looking for more. He didn't care what kind.

[10 ga]

I think the overseas production of 22LR will help out.

I have shot plenty of imported stuff:
Wolf = Russian
Aguila = Mexican
Armscor = Phillipine
Lapua = Europe
Eley = Europe
(I hope I haven't placed them wrong)

And I'm sure that there are others I don't recognize.
And if the china businessmen smell $50 bricks then they'll be in the business too.

The imports won't save us but can mitigate the harshness of the short supply.

And I'm not paying gouged RF prices, just shooting the ML with cast PRB and reloading more. Slower rate of fire but plenty of fun to be had.

Best, 10

[snaketail]

Bass Pro, Phoenix - yesterday (5/10) - Remington Thunderbolt on the shelves. Maybe the worm his turning.

[MtGun44]

When I quoted Pogo (young guys will have NO idea!) I mean ALL shooters, new and
old are "us". The shortage causes a desired to "put a bit away" - which is perfectly
logical, but it will make the shortage run longer. Not pointing fingers, but it is a
bit irritating that the "entrepreneurs" have injected themselves as another layer
in the system which raises prices.

All that said, I am not yet worried, I have enough .22 ammo to last for a while and
amazngly enough, I have an ammo factory in my basement!

Bill

[willie_pete]

This is just a speculative bubble and will end like they have all ended. The first one is generally considered to have happened in 1637. The "Tulip Bubble" is an interesting read.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

The last biggest one was probably the "Dot Com" bubble ot the current housing bubble. They all end the same way with prices returning to pre-mania levels. Just wait them out.

WP