More obsolete case sizes in our future

Everybody is aware of the overall ammo and brass shortages - it's nothing new. However, I'm starting to be concerned we will effectively be forced away from cartridges that were very common just a few short years ago. I'm talking about 30-30 and 30-40 Krag or even worse, 32-20, 38-40, 44-40, etc.

For example, I've loaded 30-30 for a long time and never had any issues obtaining brass - I'd buy a bag of 100 and those would last several years. My sons shoot 30-30 quite a bit and they lose a few cases here and there, with natural attrition doing the rest - but it was never a big deal to get another bag.

Now we are at a point where nobody is producing some of these sizes so of course, the old supply and demand rules kick in. I was surfing GunBroker the other day and saw 32-20 empties asking $4 each! There were no bids but I expect we may not be too far from that being the new norm.

Of course, the same shortage happened with domestic black powder (and we are hoping Goex will start back up soon), but the driver for that effort is military use - not market pressure. Cowboy action shooting revived a lot of the oldies but even that continuing hobby doesn't seem to be providing enough push for the manufacturers to run more. I'm sitting here wondering what calibers are consuming all of the demand and whether we have a snowball's chance of getting anyone to run a wider variety of sizes? I have a good supply of everything but that won't be the case ten years from now. It could be that my sons will inherit a bunch of pretty paperweights that can't be shot because no ammo is available...

32 Rem was last run in a production run of loaded ammo in 1964 by of all makers Winchester. Of late several makers have offered 30 Rem recently. As long as there is a sister/cousin cartridge and even a a demand of 15-20,000 pieces every couple of years it will continue to be made .

I doubt very much that 30-30 is in any danger of going away with 473 million 94 Winchesters to feed . 30-40 maybe but as long as there is a cumulative demand for 30-40, 303 , 9.3×64 , and 410 brass cases it's not likely to go completely away .

Funny that you should mention 32rem, I have been reading about people swaging it into cases for the 5.45mm

Greetings,

Time to visit the local Goon Show. Yes, it like going on a Treasure Hunt these days; but, you might just find some "Treasure".

At least you will be able to negotiate face to face.

Cheers,

Dave

This was very foreseeable prior to the first shortage many years ago and it is sad. Those of us savvy enough to see the writing on the wall took steps to ensure that components we would need in the future were acquired before they disappeared, became obsolete, or became unobtainable due to cost. We were called hoarders. Knowing things would only going to get worse I called it "I want to keep reloading/shooting and I want my kids to be able to do the same". No shortage of 30/32wcf nor 38/44-40 here!!

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Originally Posted by fc60

Greetings,

Time to visit the local Goon Show. Yes, it like going on a Treasure Hunt these days; but, you might just find some "Treasure".

At least you will be able to negotiate face to face.

Cheers,

Dave

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Have you tried recently to negotiate with someone selling at a gunshow? There is no negotiating like the old days. Prices are nuts and the sellers know that someone will come along and pay the price.

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Originally Posted by Kai

This was very foreseeable prior to the first shortage many years ago and it is sad. Those of us savvy enough to see the writing on the wall took steps to ensure that components we would need in the future were acquired before they disappeared, became obsolete, or became unobtainable due to cost. We were called hoarders. Knowing things would only going to get worse I called it "I want to keep reloading/shooting and I want my kids to be able to do the same". No shortage of 30/32wcf nor 38/44-40 here!!

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I don’t have a shortage right now either, but might be a different story 10, 15 or 20 years from now.

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Originally Posted by HWooldridge

I don’t have a shortage right now either, but might be a different story 10, 15 or 20 years from now.

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Only primers will be the issue.

Starline says they are going to make 32 WCF brass in the near future once they get caught up on brass that is more in demand. 38 WCF I don't know - might be a good idea to stock up if that's a caliber you use often. 44 WCF and 30 WCF I think I already own a lifetime supply. 30-40 Krag I don't own a rifle that uses it so it's a don't care.

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Originally Posted by HWooldridge

Now we are at a point where nobody is producing some of these sizes so of course, the old supply and demand rules kick in. ..

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If a company doesn't sell enough of something to be profitable-- they won't manufacture them either.

If they make a run of some obsolete cartridge, and it takes a few years to sell them,,,,, why bother?

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Originally Posted by Winger Ed.

If a company doesn't sell enough of something to be profitable-- they won't manufacture them either.

If they make a run of some obsolete cartridge, and it takes a few years to sell them,,,,, why bother?

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That makes sense with something like the 33 Winchester or 40-82, but there are a lot of people shooting 32-20 and 44-40. I read comments regularly that cowboy action shooters would use 32-20 as a historical cartridge but they can’t get ammo, so they fall back to 38 Special.

What I don’t understand is why Starline apparently has plenty of 5 in 1 brass in stock but nobody can backorder 44-40 or 38-40. It’s the same basic thing, aside from longer length and larger primer hole in the blanks.

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Originally Posted by Winger Ed.

If a company doesn't sell enough of something to be profitable-- they won't manufacture them either.

If they make a run of some obsolete cartridge, and it takes a few years to sell them,,,,, why bother?

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Actually, that paradigm has shifted. Very little expansion of manufacturing capacity is happening so production lines are focusing on the most profitable items. They can make a profit off the less common stuff, but they make bigger profit of the stuff in the highest demand. Like others have said, they might start making the less common stuff but only after they fill all the orders they have for the everyday stuff.

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Originally Posted by HWooldridge

That makes sense with something like the 33 Winchester or 40-82, but there are a lot of people shooting 32-20 and 44-40. I read comments regularly that cowboy action shooters would use 32-20 as a historical cartridge but they can’t get ammo, so they fall back to 38 Special.

What I don’t understand is why Starline apparently has plenty of 5 in 1 brass in stock but nobody can backorder 44-40 or 38-40. It’s the same basic thing, aside from longer length and larger primer hole in the blanks.

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I wonder maybe the 5 in 1 is new old stock, dusty stuff that was sitting on the shelf for a long time.

Tim

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Originally Posted by HWooldridge

What I don’t understand is why Starline apparently has plenty of 5 in 1 brass in stock but nobody can backorder 44-40 or 38-40. It’s the same basic thing, aside from longer length and larger primer hole in the blanks.

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When they go to the time and expense of setting up a production run, it might have to be for thousands of pounds of a given item.
If they don't discontinue something of little demand, it just has to get in line behind more profitable things.

Being the 'same basic thing' is sort of like when someone tells you, "All ya gotta do........".
It's never easy, quick, or simple.

the 30-30 was king in michigan untill the .450 and .350 took over. i had this same discussion last year on a different forum. It has been basically non-existent since the summer of 2020 but, i’m starting to see a lot of full racks of 30-30 ammo again. price isn’t to bad either $22-$24 a box depending on where you go.


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Originally Posted by Winger Ed.

When they go to the time and expense of setting up a production run, it might have to be for thousands of pounds of a given item.
If they don't discontinue something of little demand, it just has to get in line behind more profitable things.

Being the 'same basic thing' is sort of like when someone tells you, "All ya gotta do........".
It's never easy, quick, or simple.

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Yeah, I’ve worked in manufacturing management for the last 40 years so I understand setups. Still a mystery…

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Originally Posted by dtknowles

I wonder maybe the 5 in 1 is new old stock, dusty stuff that was sitting on the shelf for a long time.

Tim

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Exactly right. Starline tools up and makes X quantity. That's why they have other obscure hard to find calibers in stock. They simply have not sold the last production run yet.

I have wondered this for years about Starline, is it likely that Starline makes brass for other companies?

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Originally Posted by deces

I have wondered this for years about Starline, is it likely that Starline makes brass for other companies?

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Good question.

A look at their factory and employee parking lot on Google Earth might give an idea about how big their production capacity is.

Get what you can when you can. If I see a deal think about it. Then call buddies and see if they are interested. As time goes on I seem to be the only one looking ahead, I guess I grew up that way. I was not poor but had to make due with what I did get.

My "salvation" has been a company in Hollywood, Maryland, named "Quality Cartridge Compny" (https://qual-cart.com/index.html). I'm getting ;) kind of old, and many of my few firearms are even older, and for years the calibres I cast for, reload, and shoot are never available either in store shelves or mail-order! Quality apparently recognized the need -- and manufactures quite a few obsolete (to many ;)) calibre cases. Buffalo Arms also purveys some, as well as Graf & Sons, albeit many of Graf's are in fact Quality Cartridge products.
... A source I found, use, and have never had a bad experience with! The only "down" side is on occasion one must wait a few months until they run another batch of the calibre you elected... but this is but a very minor issues.
geo

I like the old time hard to find cal rifles. But I can’t help but wonder with the proliferation of “new” cartridges in the past 10 years of so how many of those will go by the wayside and someone will be trying to find cases for the 6.5 Creedosuper foo Wanger? A name I made up but feel free to use it.

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Originally Posted by HWooldridge

That makes sense with something like the 33 Winchester or 40-82, but there are a lot of people shooting 32-20 and 44-40. I read comments regularly that cowboy action shooters would use 32-20 as a historical cartridge but they can’t get ammo, so they fall back to 38 Special.

What I don’t understand is why Starline apparently has plenty of 5 in 1 brass in stock but nobody can backorder 44-40 or 38-40. It’s the same basic thing, aside from longer length and larger primer hole in the blanks.

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It must be a regional thing, but for the 10-12 years I shot CAS all over Michigan, I never saw a .32-20 or .44-40 being used. Certainly, none of the competitive shooters would shoot those calibers.

Maybe the crowd you run in uses calibers like that but that is not where the market is or ever will be. You are correct in assuming you need to stock when you can as they will be both hard to find and expensive down the road.

I would not be worried about .30/30 cases. There may be a short term lack of supply in your area, but that should not last. A search on Ammoseek shows it available from multiple sources.

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Originally Posted by dverna

It must be a regional thing, but for the 10-12 years I shot CAS all over Michigan, I never saw a .32-20 or .44-40 being used. Certainly, none of the competitive shooters would shoot those calibers.

Maybe the crowd you run in uses calibers like that but that is not where the market is or ever will be. You are correct in assuming you need to stock when you can as they will be both hard to find and expensive down the road.

I would not be worried about .30/30 cases. There may be a short term lack of supply in your area, but that should not last. A search on Ammoseek shows it available from multiple sources.

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This may be a chicken vs egg situation on the 32-20. It’s a historically correct cartridge and has little to no recoil (and cost effective to reload if you can find brass). One might assume it’s a perfect choice for CAS, but people find that 38 Special is better just because it’s so much easier to acquire. The 32-20 naturally disappears because it’s too rare to shoot.

I bought a 32-20 Marlin 1894 in the 1970’s that was very accurate but the chamber was so eroded that it split cases on the first shot. Ammo was much cheaper then, and available - so I hunted with it, but finally sold off because I couldn’t reload the brass. Years later, I found a Savage 23 in pristine shape and my interest in the 32-20 returned. I have enough brass to hunt with but there’s no way I could afford to shoot CAS with the caliber now.

Deleted, my mistake.

I do think that some calibers will disappear from the normal commercial markets. But many of the others still guns out there chambered for that are still in need of ammo.
The ammo industry is starting to transition from a sellers market back to buyers market, one that transition of complete, the possibility of a major manufacturer during a run of 32 win spl or 44-40 might be more likely to happen.
things that seem really dead are things like 25 and 32 rimfires for example.

How many chamberings were supposed to bury the 30-30; I count the 307Win and the 308 Marlin Express, just for starters. Dead as doornails, with the 30-30 cartridge still made in quantity by all the major manufacturers.

The people that are sucking wind (& should have known better), are the ones that bought modern rifles chambered in instant-orphans like the WSSM's, the 308 Marlin, or the 450 Marlin (dumbest idea ever, with that oversized belt).

I'd rather work to feed an older 'obsolete' chambering w/ hard-to-find brass (like 257 Roberts :-)) than one of those new stinkers - brass for those will most likely /never/ be made again.

I doubt even the youngest forum members will see the 30-30 go obsolete but some of those others for sure are going to remain relatively hard to find. Right now being that we are just coming out of a severe shortage of all things "Gun", it seems worse that it really is. These cycles always come and go but you can tell supply is catching up because of all the "Free Shipping", "Free HaxMat" "Ammo discount" sales I see in my email In-Box weekly. Prices will continue to fall if people will hold out and buy the bare minimum they need to keep shooting and stop being so pessimistic about "The New Normal". Of course prices won't go back to what they were before the Great China Virus Plague but nobody expects that - we always have a price increase every year and I think it's obvious that we are slowly easing back towards those prices for powder, bullets, brass and hopefully eventually primers.

The number one thing you can do to fight inflated gun prices is keeping Democrats out of the White House. And only buy guns when Republicans are in power AND buy enough to last through two cycles of Gun Hating Democrats when they do get elected.

I'm thankful for Starline myself because they are our best hope for these old cartridges. I can't imagine not having a 32-20 to plink with. I have something like 1,000 cases so am good for a nice long while. Also managed to get 500 Starline 32 Winchester Special cases last fall - unfired - from an individual on Gunbroker who sold them at a fair price. That is one where getting a large quantity of unfired brass is not easy.

Agree that a bunch of these new cartridges that gun companies keep insisting on introducing will go obsolete in short order. So many of them do nothing that an existing cartridge won't do. You could say that they are the solution to a problem that doesn't exist.

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Originally Posted by dverna

It must be a regional thing, but for the 10-12 years I shot CAS all over Michigan, I never saw a .32-20 or .44-40 being used. Certainly, none of the competitive shooters would shoot those calibers.

Maybe the crowd you run in uses calibers like that but that is not where the market is or ever will be. You are correct in assuming you need to stock when you can as they will be both hard to find and expensive down the road.

I would not be worried about .30/30 cases. There may be a short term lack of supply in your area, but that should not last. A search on Ammoseek shows it available from multiple sources.

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I shoot with N.C.O.W.S. The 32-20 and 44-40 are both very popular. I myself would be shooting 44-40 IF I could find some brass.