It’s been what, 2 years now? I haven’t seen stocked powder and primers in 2 years. Does anyone know anything? Are brighter days coming?
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It’s been what, 2 years now? I haven’t seen stocked powder and primers in 2 years. Does anyone know anything? Are brighter days coming?
The issue now, is the supply chain a economy are about to collapse. If not for that, I would say we would see things freeing up soon. I expected this. I argued with several people here two years ago who said I was crazy when I said 2-3 years minimum. I've been buying up anything I can find, though spotty. In the last 6 months I've been able to get around 4,000 assorted primers, all at $5.50 per sleeve. It takes persistence and patience. Powder Valley has had a ever growing list of available powder. They have maybe 25 or so right now. Hang in there. Good luck.
Yea I've been seeing Powder Valley's emails, which is promising. My problem is I slept on primers and here I am...It's very frustrating. It's even further frustrating knowing where we could be had Trump been elected again and the Democrats were the same Democrats from the early 2000's. I truly believe Obama changed how the Democratic party believed and acted.
I’m seeing some powder and bullets in shops. What primers are out there are 3x pre pandemic prices. My personal thoughts are that companies only make money if they are selling their products. With the pandemic closings, give away gov’ment subsidies and people leaving their jobs? companies are having a hard time producing anything and then greedy reloaders who clean off the shelves as soon as they have anything on them rather than only buying what the need. All of the above are creating the lack of components. But reloading components will return. They will cost more but then everything will.
Greedy reloader is a misnomer. If one follows your logic; producers would dramatically expand production to keep those shelves full (despite Greedy Reloader); because that is how they make a profit. Following same logic; others will see empty shelves and say "I can make and sell that"; and they start filling the shelves, with greedy reloaders eventually being overwhelmed with product.
The above is a simplistic description of what has been termed "The Free Market". Why is it not working? The answer is because we do not have a FREE MARKET! We have allowed the Federal and State governments to incrementally invade our lives, privacy, and businesses over the last 100 years to where everything is regulated and controlled. Couple this with "Business/Government" partnerships (Seems to only happen with Mega Corporations), and we see tremendous impediments to entry into a market.
Any start up would have difficulty entering the market to compete in a "Free Market"; but nothing like what they encounter in today's Federal/State stranglehold on what used to be the "Free Market".
There is already a trend in that the cost will continue to rise and sooner or later shooting and reloading will become hobbies of those with well-lined pockets.
Maintain an "emergency stash" below which you could not tolerate to be without. Rotate new stock into and old stock out of that stash. Purchase wisely (easy to say, more difficult to do). Today's high price is offset - through averaging - with stock already in hand, which was purchased at a lower price. If today you purchase the same quantity as already on hand, your "realized cost" is exactly in the middle of the two. Prices will "eventually" fall, but it is doubtful they will fall far enough to regain the "prices in heaven" we will talk about as the "Good Old Days".
Lots of opinions on all of this, here is mine FWIW.
There are plenty of primers available. Go to GB and similar sites and if you have the cash, buy to your hearts desire.
Without doubt people contributed to this mess.by their willingness to pay whatever for products. This just encourages the high prices.
Powder in my area is plentiful. Sometimes I have to wait for R 10 to come in. I can't count how many times I have read a person's post about buying such a such powder and then asking what it's good for. Lots of powder bought up that will likely never be used.
Then there are the cries that manufacturers are price gouging. This may be true, I don't know. What I do know is that their input costs, like everyone’s has gone up significantly. Throw in Remingtons bankruptcy.
I was in several places lately and saw 22 ammo everywhere and prices have come down, supple way up. Remember when we couldn't find any 22 ammo?
I wonder at what point in the evolution of American Society did the generation "in their vigor" say in the 1940-60's say ""this is the new normal" or the generation in the years " of their vigor" 1980-2000's say "this is the new normal" etc etc etc. Re-Read Mustangs comment above: This is the ("our") new normal moment and it is here to stay. The "Why?" means little now, cause its the way it is. World economics Global politics effecting resources at all levels have moved on, whatever. We need to just suck it up and get busy how ever, where ever we can find the components we desire. We can still have it all, just now it's based on our tolerance for recreational expenditures.
Mfg prices on powder and primers is up ~30% over pre-covid. Due to the high demand there are a lot of people buying at mfg prices and reselling at double that. But, it is available.
CCI and Federal primers have both been showing up in the local Sportsman's. And in more quantity than pre-covid. They disappear faster because of those stocking up (like me :) ). I have bought 2400 CCI SR match primers in the last 2 months. Price is about $8.50/100 vs $5.50/100 pre-covid. Std primers were $6/100 .
Hodgdon also seems to be catching back up. If you aren't picky there is powder available. I am patient and wait for the powder that I want. It is working as my stockpile is increasing.
Hornady bullets are almost back to pre-covid levels as well, and not much higher in price (if any).
I have heard of at least one company start up for manufacturing primers here in the US. As long as the high demand lasts that might cause one or two others to try to overcome paperwork to start such an operation.
For those of you who are dependent on internet purchasing you are probably going to be suffering from the pricing issues longer. At least until the demand drops enough that the 'scalpers' can't make a good profit.
It does seem that stock is getting slightly better but the prices are still crazy. May be the new normal.
This is very true. A 300% profit increase in primers would be a signal to produce more and for others to get in on it. I check Ammoseek all the time and domestic primers are almost non-existent. There's a lot more than simple supply and demand going on here. We know our rulers don't like us having guns and ammo so maybe they found a way to keep most of use from having the means for self-protection.
I can only tell you a general trend that I'm aware of in manufacturing at the moment is that it is going to get worse this fall. Realize I am not in the ammo, or even firearms manufacturing, but the problems we face are shared by all manufacturers at the moment. We can't even get raw goods right now. I work in a printing factory, and the forecast is that we will not be able to get the rolls of paper needed for the jobs we could be getting. Employee wise, we can't hire any more good workers. I'm not aware of any industry at the moment that is any different. The positions are there, but there are no more skilled workers to be had. It's a good time to move up in a company though, they will train you.
I would not expect anything to change in the next few months. There's no way to increase production right now. Nobody can get the materials or skilled workers. I'm guessing they won't let someone make primers for production until they are certain they know what they are doing, and it's not a job easily automated from what I've seen. Just keep your fingers crossed elections go good this fall, things smooth out with the supply chain, and ammo demand slows this fall. Then maybe next spring things will be better. We also possibly have a new primer factory in Texas opening, but we all know the backstory there.
its simple economics with supply and demand. the manufactures use primers themselves to make ammo that is in demand, they only sell the extra and then to the highest bidder. as long as demand remains strong in the ammo end of things the supply of primers will remain low. i doubt we will ever see the 15 buck bricks of primers like a few years ago. it could get much worse so if you find primers at a cost you can stomach, better stock up.
I have seen more primers available but at scalper prices!
$9-10/100!
There never was a shortage of primers at those prices. At any point you could always buy primers for $100-$150 a thousand, but that's not a reasonable price to anyone except those who can't buy factory ammo. Everything is up about 30% right now from a few years ago, so I would expect at some point in the future primers will get below $50 a thousand again.
I don't consider 100$ per thousand scalping prices. 150 to 200$ per K probably is.
I have enough of everything I need to last me quite a while. But, as noted, everything is going to cost 2 to 4 times as much to replace.
So I have pretty much quit shooting powder burners. Air rifles at under 2 cents a shot, yeah I'll burn those to keep my eye sharp if needed.
.22mag price per round is almost back to where it was. I bought before the crunch at 24 cents per round. It is now available at 28 to 30 cents per round for the same brands and bullet weights. Considering that to reload to shoot would cost half of that just for primers. .22mag does not seem so bad a deal to me. And I can shoot with no time invested to replace. Just cash and patience to go find the good bargains.
Ghosthawk, too many people are unwilling to adapt like we have.
Folks do not need to use expensive primers and powders to get lots of trigger time and to stay proficient.
Friday, I shot 250 pellets for less than $4. I was shooting in a 13 mph wind and it was challenging and fun. If I had broken out the 1894 carbine, it would have cost $25 just for primers. Plus the work to cast, clean cases, and reload them. News flash....the paper could not tell the difference. And the darn air rifle is more accurate!!
I was one of those guys who shot over 300 rounds a week for years. Just not affordable now. I love to shoot and have adapted to enjoy my hobby. I see guys here talking about leaving the hobby. It is the only option left for folks who do not want to adapt and do not have deep pockets.
Guys like us will keep shooting until we are too crippled up or the Father brings us home. Keep on keeping on my friend!
For the time being I am shooting air rifles and pistol only. As far as I am concerned, the "scalper" can choke on their primers and powder. Air pellets are cheap compared to primers and powder. I can stay sharp with air rifles and pistols without breaking the bank or allowing the 'scalper" to get rich. my .02 anyway, james
This is the gospel. The root cause right now is that raw materials are nearly all being sourced where? Not here. It has become nearly impossible to produce anything in this country without being beholden to the international supply chain. This supply chain is a train wreck, whether intentionally or naturally, pick your conspiracy. Ultimately the government, both sides, have wrecked this country so bad for so long that we are quickly reaching a point of no return.
I really can't say where some primer components come from. Plus it's the ammo demand creating the reloading market shortage. For sure copper, steel, and lead are the main components, but who knows. It could be something as simple as a lack of nitrocellulose keeping them from meeting the powder demand. I just pulled that example out of thin air, I doubt that is really the cause. If any single component is short you can't complete any product.
Copper is mainly produced here in the USA as far as I can tell. Even with that example, maybe a piece of machinery goes down and all mining stops. We are having a heck of a time getting parts and machinery at our work. Even air conditioning units are over a year out for delivery. Many parts are months out. It's to the point most major repairs now go right to the machine shop. I know for sure everyone is hurting for parts. Even on domestic machinery, the places that build these things cant get skilled labor. CNC's only get you so far, at some point you need real machinists, and they are not easy to find.
Ultimately everything manufacturing is interwoven with multiple industries, and often many different countries. With the giant disruption we went through, it is going to be a while before things smooth out.
Good time to break out the Daisey Cal. 4.5mm Air Gun. Watch the BB's rainbow trajectory from muzzle to target. Make a set of Low, Medium, and High "sight ramps" from a piece of wood, e.g. clothes pin (see diagram); to elevate the rear sight and extend the effective range; no "holdover" guessing if the range is fixed. Learn the effective range for each "flat" in a sight ramp.
I "tuned" mine to a set of those ramps/flats/ranges and keep them with the rifle in a tiny plastic bag. Guesstimating the range to target becomes the GAME as marksmanship becomes quite sharp very quickly. It is FUN and cheap practice that keeps the mind sharp. You can still holdover and the ramp doesn't bend the sight elevator.
https://i.postimg.cc/RFVCbJC9/Sight-Elevators.jpg
James...exactomondo.
I have enough primers and powder to last a lifetime IF I do not waste them plinking. I sold primers and powder last year to buy some decent air guns. Guns that will provide years of trigger time for next to nothing.
All this hand wringing about costs makes little sense to me. Unless someone is a competitive shooter, do they really need to shoot thousands of rounds a year at paper and steel with CF rounds?
If magazine dumps are what people want, I do not feel empathy for them. In fact, getting them out of shooting is a good thing.
I have never shot a lot but have been setting aside powder, primers, lead for over 40 years. I now have enough components to shoot as much as I want for the rest of my days. Even at that I recently bought a 22 cal PCP and around 10/15 thousand pellets. At this point I don't care what happens to the price of components as I probably won't be buying any more. Other than pellets I haven't bought much of any ammo or components in the last 2 years. It has always made me wonder why few people save up for hard times. Has no one heard of the great depression or do they think it can't happen again? I thinks a lot of folks are about to learn a very hard lesson.
Home prices are currently outrageous nationwide. Out of curiosity I looked at home prices in the neighborhood where I bought my first house 30 years ago and prices are up 400%. That's in a part of town where I wouldn't want to live which was why I sold the house back then. A $45K house built in the mid 1960s is now a $180K house.
I certainly don't see how it can possibly be worth more than half that price.
"something as simple as a lack of nitrocellulose keeping them from meeting the powder demand." You might have pulled that one out of thin air but after I called Shooters World Powders, that is exactly what they told me. I was inquiring about Buffalo Rifle and they said the lack of notrocellulose was the reason they could not make any. I have seen a few Lbs of it since then but not much. As far as primers, what is the status on the new manufacturing company in Tx?
Long story short. This level of inflation is due to a weird series of events that has changed the world and country markets. It probably will slow a bit, but, not go back to pre-covid levels.
The current inflation trend started a while ago as companies started pulling out of China. They were tired of the Chinese taking Intellectual Property from them. Then the previous administration began a series of trade policies with China (and others) that caused prices to increase. Yes, the purpose was to increase US production, but, that production is a lot more expensive. Then COVID and the huge influx of government hand out money. At the same time production and supply were hurt drastically due to labor problems and quarantines. More price increases as demand surged past supply of most commodities.
COVID also caused a massive change in the work structure. Large numbers of jobs became remote. That meant a lot of folks could move from the expensive cities into rural areas. Housing prices in smaller towns started to go up. Then the lumber prices spiked and made it worse. Not enough construction crews meant higher prices.
Current administration has done nothing to help any of this. Don't know if they don't care or if no one knows how to change it. The Fed could increase lending rates, but, that might lead to worse effects. And, actions taken in other parts of the world are having a large effect as well.
China's issues with COVID variants is causing manufacturing problems as well. They have shut down factories or gone to much smaller production rates. Just look at what one little item did to the world economy, computer processing chips. The automotive industry has been crippled. Yes, this mfg could be moved to other countries, but, it takes time and prices will probably go up due to higher labor rates.
Ammunition prices? Just not important enough for anyone to try to control it.
I went in my usual store to purchase components looking for 2400 and some primers. They had 2 types of powder at 60$ a pound and primers were 12$ a sleeve. Don't believe I'll be going back.
It will get better if and when the President, Congress , and Senate are not controlled by the kind of morons that control it now. This happens every time they take over, nothing new . This is however the worst it's been ,but this bunch is the worst we have ever been forced to deal with so that should not be a surprise to anyone. Delete away !
PS: Who was in office the last time that gas got so high you couldn't afford it ? Bush gas prices $1-$2 range , Osama $4-$5 range and higher, Trump $2-$3 range , prices of everything else follows. Sniff was in office for only a very short time before gas prices started to climb. For the record , I am not a Trump fan but I will vote for him again if forced to , and we will lose again most likely.
Brownell's has been sending e-mails that they have primers every now and then. 2K max as $85/m. I bought a can of Ramshot Enforcer powder at Bass Pro in Colorado Springs a couple months back. They had like a dozen cans on the shelf, limit of one. Another Ramshot powder too, but I cannot remember what flavor. Seeing lots of loaded ammo on shelves, so I think we may see powder and primers picking up before the snow flies.
Inflation:
The Federal Reserve has printed money like toilet paper for a long time, but they went into overdrive when Biden was installed.
BIDEN'S WAR ON ENERGY ... started day 1 in office.
Double the price of transportation fuel and guess what gets more expensive? EVERYTHING!
This was deliberate.
Nice to see some common sense in some posts here. One thing about the high prices of components...if they were priced at $40/thousand or per pound of powder now, those that need them would likely not be able to find any before the hoarders and resellers grabbed them and were reselling for double/triple that. But it still sounds like many people are buying whatever/whenever they can find at these prices, that will keep this going and going. And whoever thinks we need another primer manufacturing plant....maybe they can finance if and then close down in a few years when the demand is gone again. If you enjoy this HOBBY, you should have had the supplies to do it before this mess started. Maybe some will need new hobbies if they don't like where things are currently. Prices will not go back to where they were and why would anyone expect them to? They will come down... after the orders for loaded ammo are satisfied and the remaining handloaders have 2 lifetimes supply of everything they need.
Vista Outdoor owns most all of the companies that members on this forum use on a regular basis. On Jan 3, 2020 Vista was trading for about $7 a share, peaking out around Nov 2021 at $45 a share, currently at about $29. I think that they make more per primer selling finished ammo than in bulk to a guy who rolls their own. Ammo is on the shelves in increasing amounts- and profits are starting to drop a bit, as soon as the shelves are full of ammo, the components will start to arrive. Powder is showing up in some places, but scalpers know that it is not as easy to sell powder as primers- a more universal component, not to mention smaller and easier to transport. The factories are cranking out product on a profit driven priority, with increasing labor and materials and shipping cost, they need to make money to stay in business. If your LGS is gouging you, that is not the industries problem but a local one. If your LGS is moving less product he has to charge more to keep the lights on.
I shoot idpa & I am as instructor & still also take a class now & then. 8000rds a year of cf ammo isnt very much. You run thru your primer supply quickly.
Ammo is coming back where prices are almost at prepandemic for common 9mm & 223. The issue is we dont make the primary components for powder & primers. That is almost entirely outsourced to other countries. Fix that, not likely, then we fix the primer/powder problem.
Does anyone think that the President, the Senate and the Congress really cares about the price or availability of powder, primers, bullets,etc. Just like what they did to the petroleum industry, what’s happening with shooting supplies brings joy to their hearts. As long as their body guards have bullets and guns they could care less about the unwashed masses. Not saying they did this on purpose, but they definitely are thrilled it happened.
I can't understand why you think voting would matter. Trump banned bump stocks, Reagan supported gun bans and so did Bush. So far Biden hasn't done much except supposedly banning Russian ammo. I think it's very foolish to think any of these worthless power seeking idiots are on your side. The NRA hasn't put up much of a fight either. I guess they don't want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.