A Message From Federal, CCI, Speer And Remington President Jason Vanderbrink On Ammo Demand
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIgv...ralpremiumammo
(Mods, if this is in the wrong place please move it)
A Message From Federal, CCI, Speer And Remington President Jason Vanderbrink On Ammo Demand
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIgv...ralpremiumammo
(Mods, if this is in the wrong place please move it)
I caught it about 20 minutes after it was posted on YT. I've heard directly from two different employees in the Anoka MN plant that they are busting their humps to make ammo and they're selling every single round of it. I think that ammo and some components will continue to be difficult to acquire for some time to come, possibly up to 4 years.
This guy is manufacturing, not distributing.
Let me chime in about distribution as I saw it.
Not 22lr but 1000w mercury light bulbs.
My rink had 40 1000w bulbs.
They would burn out.
They are 35 feet up over the ice.
My supplier would sell me 2 for $40 (1990's)
My supplier and our kids, we all played hockey.
He recommended we change all the bulbs
at the start of the season, before I made ice.
So he and my business manager sat down.
We bought a pallet of mercury bulbs for 50 cents each,
straight from Sylvania, drop shipped.
Dropped is a good word for it...
Sylvania got paid, not their problem.
So we had a thousand bulbs for $500 plus freight.
Less breakage in a pile of glass at the bottom.
Was my supplier hoarding lightbulbs?
He had five pallets waiting to sell at $20 a bulb;
they also left a trail of glass...
Did he sell them? Yes, he did.
Why would he sell bulbs for 50 cents?
OK, he made 10% a thousand nickels clear and
he was tired of skating in the dark.
My point is there are pallets of 22lr
waiting to be bought.
We just don't know the price yet.
Would you sell them cheap?
There is a CCI/Speer ammo factory about an hour away from me and I figured they would be clamoring for new employees. Nope.
They have two positions open; a journeyman electrician, or an Assembler. Assembler pay starts at $17 an hour and is graveyard shift and weekend work. The local McDonald's starts you at $14 an hour. A local electronic manufacturer starts their assemblers at $16 an hour and an extra $1.25 for Swing shift work with no graveyard or weekend work.
Maybe they are busting their humps, maybe they are not. MAYBE they should concentrate on distributing the product to stores and shops other than the big mega stores. Many of us do not have access to those big stores, but we still need ammo and reloading components.Quote:
Originally Posted by LaPoint
whatever they are producing I don't think mini mags will be back at Walmart for $7.99/100bx any time soon.
it will be like the last shortage, people learning when the shipments come in and fill the car with friends to buy up all they can to resell at the swap meet for 10x the price
If they aren't running shifts 24-7 they aren't doing it it right. I worked for Intel for years and that made best use of the fab and maximum production. If it requires an expansion, that is another ball of wax.
The owner of the LGS told me basically the same thing. He still gets ammo and primers in, but they go out the door as soon as it hits the shelves. He has over 400 guns on order but they sell as fast as they come in. If every new gun owner buys a couple boxes of ammo with the gun, there is no way the manufacturers can keep up with demand.
It is disturbing that so many people cannot comprehend the effects of high demand.
We repeatedly see shortages driven by high demand and some idiots will continue to put forth conspiracy theories to explain the shortages.
When everyone and their brother buys something, there will be a shortage. Ammunition, primers, powder, Toilet paper! It doesn't matter what is in demand or even why there is a demand.
The American economy is huge and the American population is huge. We have over 328 MILLION people. The United States Of America is the 3rd most populous nation on the planet! (only China and India have larger populations than the U.S.A.).
We saw the EXACT same scenario play out during the lead up to elections in 2008, after Sandy Hook, leading up to the 2012 election and the 2016 election. When millions upon millions of people buy larger quantities of some product than they normally do - THERE WILL BE A SHORTAGE. There's no need to resort to a bizarre conspiracy theory to explain the obvious.
Ammunition manufacturers are more than capable of meeting the consumer demands for ammunition during normal times, just like toilet paper manufacturers meet the normal demands for that product. When you are dealing with an enormous population, it doesn't take much to outstrip manufacturing and distribution systems.
There are now THREE threads going about the same thing.
http://castboolits.gunloads.com/show...42#post5063442
Can't find the second one but this is the third.
7,000,000 new gun owners, if they all wanted 1,000 rounds each, that's 7 BILLION rounds. Explains everything to me.
Let's face it - part of the problem is GUBERMENT. The Ammunition industry is heavily regulated. The Ammunition Industry enjoys the fact that "Barriers to Entry" are exceptionally high. They (ammo Industry and the Yarvards {Yale/Harvard/Etc.. MBA's}) enjoy a GUBERMENT protected status; Billy Bob may have the technical ability to stand up a Powder;Bullet, Ammo factory, BUT Billy Bob does not have the contacts, political support, and Lawyers to compete. The BIG BOY's in all industry are notorious for finding ways to keep the "Start Ups" from getting a foot hold. In good times the New Entry keeps the prices lower as they are trying to establish themselves, in the "Bad Times"; the Big Boy's do not want their margins affected. Business (Including the Powder/Primer/Ball/Ammo businesses) are self protecting if and when possible; for me that's OK - But; as a free market person I hate it when the small guy is shut out, and that is what is present in today's Political/Business environment. The GUBERMENT IS NOT OUR FRIEND; it is our competitor at best and our advisory at its worst. Does not matter if it's the Ammo, Poultry, Grain, IT, Defense industry, or......
Wolf ammo importers learned how to increase the price of their ammo back around 2001 or so. At the time the 7.62x39 was around $69 on sale to $99 at most places. 223 ammo was about $15 higher. So they mentioned that the ammo should be selling for a lot more. They sat on the ammo and refused to ship it out unless the price was $169/1k for 762 and $189 for 223. The price has gone up ever since.
The ammo companies may be shipping but the wholesalers are not. They did this same bull with the 22rf ammo last time. Same as the component makers. They stated higher material cost but copper and brass and lead were all on the down slide so that made no sense.
I have NO use for conspiracy theories.
It isn't a conspiracy, it's just simple supply, demand, and business as usual. I have to believe somebody out there has an awful lot of 22lr. Good as gold. There is a utube of the guy in Montana making a million rounds every eight hours. A big palletfull, shrinkwrapped. I just bought the last box of 800 in Green Valley for $65, we are moving the younglings from bb gun to 22lr. Whatta world.
Wasn't Remington mostly shut down during their bankruptcy? Didn't think they would be up to full production until 2021.
Vista Outdoors is the parent company that owns Federal and CCI. Vista purchased Remington Ammunition and they are operating the plants at full capacity.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWolf
https://looserounds.com/2020/11/26/p...-anokas-vista/
Consumers are simply purchasing ammunition faster than it can be produced and distributed.
From another article published by the Star Tribune on 11/25/20:
"....Metz said that Vista’s ammunition plants in Anoka and Lewiston, Idaho, are operating at full steam while it tries to fill a year’s worth of ammunition back orders worth $1 billion......."
There's no evidence that wholesalers are are failing to ship ammunition.Quote:
Originally Posted by tomme boy
In fact, there are multiple accounts of retailers receiving shipments of ammunition and simply placing the entire pallet full of ammunition on the floor of the store. Customers are purchasing cases of ammunition directly from the pallets and the retailers don't even need to place the items on the shelves; the customers will unload the pallets for them in minutes.
There's nothing mysterious occurring here. The industry is capable of meeting the needs of consumers during times of normal demand. When the demand is extraordinarily high (like it is now) the demand outstrips the supply.
When you have tens of millions of people (or maybe hundreds of millions) purchasing ammunition, the demand will quickly outstrip the supply. We need not to create bizarre explanations for the shortages. The explanation is very simple - people are purchasing ammunition faster than it can be produced and distributed.
P&P nailed it. If all ammo company's are making it as fast as they can, it wouldn't take too long to fill all available warehouses with it. I doubt there is any company who can produce very long without selling and stay in operation. There are no distributors who can buy very long without selling. There are no retailers who can keep it in inventory very long.Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrol & Powder
How many of us contribute to the problem? I likely have more 22lr than I will shoot in the rest of my life, but since it is not on the shelves I think I need more. I likely have enough small pistol and small rifle primers to last me for several years, but since there are none on the shelves I will buy any that show up and make them unobtainium for the next guy.
Forty pallets, a ton each, would fit nicely in a conex, and where else can you get a 100% return on investment? Another distribution holdup I saw was late 70's when #2 oil was trying to sell for $1 a gallon. New England burned firewood instead of oil, the tanks at Chelsea Creek were full, and the barges kept coming. Did Exxon lower the price? No. The barges went to England, where people would buy #2 at any price. Then all the barges were in England, Chelsea needed oil, was a barge shortage. Business as usual. One December Friday the Cape Cod canal got a bargeful of gasoline stuck in a blowing Northeaster. Boston ran out of gasoline until Monday. Nobody noticed, unless they were out of gas. Just-in-time sourcing can fail rapidly.
When I got divorced and moved back up to Idaho, I worked for a small ammo company that was started during the Obama election shortage. It had established itself as a quality manufacturer of defensive ammo, PNW Arms.
I did quality control inspection and it was a fun job, but the business owners decided to instead of continuing to produce high quality ammo, start marketing their automated reloading equipment. That venture failed miserably and they went out of business within a few months.
Had they just stuck to creating quality ammo and held on a couple of more years, they would be swimming in money today.
Are you insinuating that the current shortage is caused by investors purchasing large quantities of ammunition at the highest possible prices, storing it (perhaps in shipping containers) and waiting for the price to DROP so that they can sell it for a loss?Quote:
Originally Posted by .429&H110
Because if that's your theory, you don't have a very good grasp on how investing works.
The current shortage is the result of a massive consumer demand. It is THAT SIMPLE. There are no secret warehouses (or Conex boxes) full of ammunition. There is no conspiracy.
Come on bro.Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrol & Powder
Everybody loves a good conspiracy theory.:bigsmyl2:
i do notQuote:
Originally Posted by winger ed.
They do not intend to sell it. Not at a profit. Not at a loss. Their only intent is to keep it from us, and eventually use it against us. If you think otherwise, open your eyes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrol & Powder
Who is "They" ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Froogal
They is me and you. If I could buy a pallet of 22lr at wholesale, why would I sell it cheap? C'mon this is America. I would sell anything for what a motivated buyer would pay a motivated seller. That is the real estate rule. Across the street an 1100 square foot town house is asking $199k. Probably settle at $189k. A bargain. A thing is only worth what you are willing to pay for it. Next year that townhouse will be flipped for $220k. A lot of people really want to live here. For me, I need to live somewhere, I am not moving, and I am not in the 22lr foodchain. Another 2000 rounds would be nice, the girls are eating it up.
That would only work IF you had purchased the massive amounts of ammunition back when it was cheap & available.
Large purchases in the past would not result in CURRENT shortages.
Let's put this in another perspective.
For your entire adult life you have been able to walk into just about any store and purchase toilet paper.
If it was a large store, there would even be a selection of brands and packaging sizes available, all for roughly the same cost for what you were buying.
Then one day back in May of 2020, everybody and their brother started buying huge amounts of toilet paper. Suddenly there wasn't toilet paper on the shelves.
The shortage wasn't due to the "government" buying up the toilet paper.
The shortage wasn't due to investors trying to corner the toilet paper market.
The shortage wasn't due to "They" squirreling toilet paper away in secret warehouses and Conex boxes.
The shortage wasn't due to a sudden lack of pulp wood.
The shortage wasn't due to the paper mills shutting down or a transportation problem.
THE SHORTAGE WAS DUE TO A MASSIVE INCREASE IN CONSUMER DEMAND.
There's no need to create some bizarre theory or complicated explanation for the shortage. Nor was there a vast CONSPIRACY to deprive Americans of TOILET PAPER!
The current ammunition shortage is no different than the previous ammunition shortages we've experienced recently. The conspiracy theories remain the fantasies of idiots but the cause remains simple demand higher than supply.
OK, you convinced me.
There is no hoarding or profiteering.
Y'all have any idea where I can get some 22lr?
Around here an open box is an empty box.
Scheels IA City. $14.99 for the 100 round plastic container. Today.
Not current but about 8 years ago, there was a gun show going on in Carlsbad, NM. I went to Walmart for something and while I was there another customer bought every box of .300 Win Mag they had; more than most people would want to shoot in a year of something with that much recoil. After he left the clerk told me that he bought like that all the time. He eliminated the supply to run up the price. According to the clerk he was a gun show reseller.
The gooberment is hoarding it, because they know something is coming.
I posted the first one which had the most hits...GONE.Quote:
Originally Posted by downzero
I heard the Lizard people are buying up all the ammo. The need the nitrates in the powder for essential vitamins for their smooth scaly skin, the brass for jewelry, and they use the lead to weigh themselves down so they can more efficiently lay low.
That's exactly what I was thinking. Those darn Lizard people. You just can't trust 'em. Almost as bad a the mole people in mines.Quote:
Originally Posted by kenton
And Jeffrey Epstien killed himself......
I saw Elvis buy the last brick of primers at a Las Vegas LGS....
Not that difficult folks. Production and raw material went down due to Covid 19. Demand went way up do to Covid. People stuck at home reloaded brass due to boredom and the went to the range more for the same reason. Most of the outdoor sports products have been in short supple since the start of Covid. Fishing tackle is a prime example. Now throw in the riots and politics that accounted for all time sales records including 8 million new gunowners you had the makings of a perfect storm.
I have no doubt there is hoarding for profit on a small time bases but the idea that the manufactures are doing is is baseless. First price increases by the manufactures have been non-existent to modest at worst. Also the manufactures are reluctant to radially increase manufacturing capabilities based on past experience of the sales slumps that always follow panic buying.
The more unrealistic the prices become the greater the need to turn your inventory over quickly or you will get burned. Best example is the Hunt Brothers and the Silver market.
Warehouses full of unicorns is more realistic than warehouses of ammo just setting awaiting higher prices.
Sure, most stores I've checked here in central MN have at least some 22lr, as well as other rimfires. The local bait shop here has around 500 rounds on the shelf of 22lr, about what they always have.Quote:
Originally Posted by .429&H110