September. . . that's the word according to

[Recluse]

Talked to the owner of a range/gun store I've been frequenting since my fed law enforcement days. I still cuss him for not handling reloading supplies anymore. Good thing we're friends. (We oughta be friends after all the hard-earned d'argent I've dropped in his cash register over the years on range time, guns, targets, supplies, guns, accessories, guns, books and the such.

He was telling me this evening after he'd closed up that his suppliers/wholesalers are all saying that by September/mid-September, we should be seeing the primer, powder and ammunition situation return to almost normal.

AND, he emphasized, that was also with the expectations that when the stuff does become available, there will be a HUGE buying spree.

Told him that was definitely good news and that I'd definitely believe it when I definitely saw it and definitely experienced it definitely firsthand.

He said I definitely sounded a little cynical.

Nonetheless, he's been through these things on many occasions before (supply shortages) and whenever he's told us what his folks are passing down the pike, it's almost always been gospel.

I can be an optmistic guy. But I'm still going to be cautiously optimistic. But right now, I'll take good news whenever it comes.

:coffee:

[geargnasher]

I will be cautiously cynical, or cynically optimistic, or whatever right there with youl. I still can't see this crunch ending overnight like that, not until fuel prices get over $4 a gallon again and the consumer focus changes to hoarding and buying up fuel!

Gear

[HeavyMetal]

This is what happened after the last shortage during the first gulf war.

You couldn't get primers to save your life, and yes I saw oppertunists then as well, then manufacturing caught up with Government demand and a ton of back orders came through and suddenly guys that hadn't had a single primer on the shelf had three pallet loads!

I found some pretty amazing deals in the first few months of that1 I bought 5000 small pistol for $55.00 out the door!

We'll see it again.

[Recluse]

I will be cautiously cynical, or cynically optimistic, or whatever right there with youl. I still can't see this crunch ending overnight like that, not until fuel prices get over $4 a gallon again and the consumer focus changes to hoarding and buying up fuel!

Gear

I hear you, but I--like many others here--have been through this before. Last time, it was almost like a spigot got turned back on again. One day, no primers or powder, and the next day, we were swimming in them.

Already seeing some signs that progress is being made. I talked with a guy I know at Midway. They got in a shipment of Winchester Large Pistol Primers two days ago--sold out in fifteen minutes almost on the dot, he said.

Good news bad news.

Midway is limiting purchases to 5K per order. That is a fair number, in my opinion. Other online retailers are purported to be doing the same when they receive shipments.

I am optimistic because it is an indicator of the market taking care of itself. The "etailers" realize that by "rationing" primers/powder, they are spreading the goods out more evenly. This strongly works to eliminate the "ladies of the evening who walk the alleys and trade favors for rocks of crack" among us. (Being polite--this is a family board)

At the same time, those who purchase between 1K and 5K of primers will have ample amounts to load and shoot until next shipments arrive. That number (5K) allows reloaders to both load and put back a couple of thousand for a rainy day.

AND at the same time, as Heavy Metal points out, those "ladies of the evening who walk the alleys" will see their market diminish rapidly. They can either learn to reload (not likely) or they can sell (at or below the going market rate) or they can sprinkle some Heinz 57 on those primers and choke them down.

I saw THAT as well after the last big primer scare/shortage. Same as I saw incredible deals on slightly to non-used reloading equipment. That's how I bought my Dillon 550--and paid $200 for it. The guy who'd bought it new never could figure out how to set it up, use it, etc. He wanted 9mm ammo and that was all. When the 9mm FMJ came back in hordes, he had no use whatsoever for the Dillon.

It's all about patience, biding one's time, and putting a little $$ back to be prepared.

:coffee:

[snaggdit]

I saw incredible deals on slightly to non-used reloading equipment.
It's all about patience, biding one's time, and putting a little $$ back to be prepared.

I'm all about that! Bring on the Star or Lyman sizer I need!

[Stick_man]

I have seen several signs that things are about to improve fairly soon. I think it is a combination of many things and for once I am supportive of many of the retailers positions on limiting purchases. (I never thought I'd be supportive of rationing). I think many hoarders are finding their storage filled to capacity, many others are finding their bank accounts emptied, many reloaders are fed up with the higher prices, and production has not dropped off. Combine those with reduced usage in Iraq and the military supplies being replenished a little and the need to cut back some on budgets, and the demand seems to be dropping ever so slightly.

I am all set on brass and pretty well set on primers that I use, I am now just looking for some good powder at a reasonable price.

[geargnasher]

I expect history to repeat itself, too, but I remember that our economy was in much better shape in the past and the laws of supply and demand change when you throw in astronomical inflation, the value of the dollar plummeting, everyone being in hoc to the government or intities controlled by it.

Things are starting to loosen a bit, just like some sage person posted a few months ago on a 'primer shortage' thread that if we'd quit panic-posting about shortages people might just quit panic-buying. It seems that the impulse may be dwindling as our sensationalist media shifts the masses focus onto things like swine flu and North Korea and the collapse of our automotive manufacturing industry. But I worry about another run on everything if the current supreme court candidate gets confirmed. Never a dull moment anymore huh?

Gear

[Slow Elk 45/70]

Let US Pray.....[smilie=1:

[Bass Ackward]

I think we have a new dynamic taking shape. And it is there for those that can read the signs.

For decades, ammunition companies have had slow going because they had contracts to produce for the government that caused excess equipment sit idle. For the last 15 years or so, demand for factory ammo has been increasing. This means better times for them as they put you off, cause where else you going to go? Gotchya!

Put yourself in their shoes. If you owned the business would you expand your building and buy new equipment if you thought things were going to go back as they were and ruin a good thing? Especially just so you could cut your own throat by selling primers to a group who cares nothing for your bread and butter. That's plain dumb if it was in any other industry huh? So are they going to expand? :grin:

Who is the enemy here? The signs are all around you every time you see a "newbie question". The signs have been there for a long time. LEE added new equipment to double mold making capacity and they are STILL behind on orders and it is getting worse, not better. Custom mold makers are popping up every day. Ever see that before? Used mold prices on ebay going for new. THAT's the train coming down the tracks. Future demand for your precious resources.

We have met the enemy and it is us. Don't kid yourself. For every person caught short now, that is your future hoarder. Been there, done that.

[Rick N Bama]

For every person caught short now, that is your future hoarder. Been there, done that.

I agree with you for if & when primers again become available, I will be stocking up!

Rick

[Shiloh]

Midway has an estimated delivery date of November for small rifle primers.
I am good gor a while, but have been concentrationg on shooting a lot of the primers I am more flush on.

Shiloh

[mike in co]

september would be nice...but i think the end of the yr...dec/jan is more likely....



i do see more ammo on the market...in spurts than in the past.


mike in co...off to another gun show...

[Cloudpeak]

I just received some primers from our club's group buy that I ordered the first of the year. 5000 large Winchester pistol primers ($23.38/1000) and 10,000 CCI small pistol primers ($22.40/1000). I've never loaded CCI SPP so hope they work as well as Winchester. Anyway, that should last me awhile:-D

[Down South]

As I have posted the same thing in several threads involving the component shortage, I believe that we will be seeing primers available by years end in quantity. I can’t back this up with facts of any kind. It’s just a gut feeling. I think the hoarding is slowing down. As mentioned above we probably will be seeing good deals on slightly used or new reloading equipment that was bought by folks who will think that they no longer need it.

I think there are a lot of new reloaders & casters out there that will drop out when things lighten up. Where in the heck are all the moulds going? To new reloaders/casters or people who just wanted a few moulds in case the new administration put a band on ammo. Same thing with primers, powder and reloading equipment.

And of course you have the opportunists who bought up all of the reloading stuff that they could to make a buck reselling on Ebay, GB or the like. I think a lot of these people are sitting on stock piles of stuff that they will not be able to get rid of at the inflated prices they were wishing to acquire.

[markinalpine]

...buying primers last summer well before the election. Since I am a tightwad, and can't stand the idea of paying the HAZMAT fee on a small purchase, I bought 5000 of ever size primer I use, along with a substantial amount of powder, from Natchez, since they don't double HAZMAT you for mixed powder/primer orders, up to the 70 Lb. limit, and I was only up to about 40 on that order.

I have been seeing powder available at many of the on-line dealers. Not every type, but many varieties.

And don't forget, all the primer manufacturers also make ammunition, as far as I know. I'm sure they are maximizing their profits by putting all they primers into cartridges. The reloading/handloading community is small compared to the panicked ammunition buyers, hoarders, and greedy profiteers.

Anybody into flintlocks yet? :kidding:

Mark :coffee:

[runfiverun]

with all the new guy's getting into this stuff, the demand will stay up i think it's good.
if they have to up their output to keep up , fine.
i just wonder with 2 more outfits producing primers since the last go round how did things get so bad this time.
the numbers of shooters and reloaders were supposed to be waaay down.
so who bought all this stuff?
if things relax the prices should still be the same as they were before.
at least [so far ] the word i have been getting is the primer prices from the manufacturers havent gone up.
it's the retailers who have upped the prices especially on match type stuff.

[soldierbilly1]

The Rifleman this month in the Tech Q & A section, indicated primer mfrs are slow to add lines, buy equip, hire folks, etc. due to some 'possible changes in future legislation.' In other words, Democrats out the Wazoo. makin' the world safe for all of us.
Isnt that just great? Its not all bad, we will restock, but I think maybe the end of the year.
billyboy

[jack19512]

We have met the enemy and it is us. Don't kid yourself. For every person caught short now, that is your future hoarder. Been there, done that.








When you say it like that "hoarder" really sounds like a really bad word. But one thing is for sure, if I hadn't "stocked up" which really sounds better to me and I think is more accurate for my case anyway there is for sure a couple of things I wouldn't be doing right now.

1. Reloading, no powder, no primers = no reloading.
2. Wouldn't have the need to be casting my own boolits. No powder, no primers = no shooting.

So given the opportunity I will "stock up" again. I would advise everyone else to do the same. It's totally your decision. :)

[462]

jack19512, your definitions are very apropos to the current situation. We, as casters, reloaders and shooters are more apt to reasonably stock up on supplies to fit our present and future needs, based on what we can afford at the time. On the other hand, hoarders are those who buy out of fear and panic rather than reason or need, and are willing to pay ridiculously inflated prices, in the process. And, possibly paying with plastic.

This current supply shortage will pass. Supply, demand and pricing will reach their equilibrium point, as it always does. The hoarders will be left holding their tens-of-thousands of primers and hundreds of pounds of powder, which cost them many times more than the prices of the new and plentiful supply. Perhaps, in an effort to raise some much needed cash -- because they used their credit cards to pay those inflated prices -- they will be selling their stash for less than market prices. A perfect example of poetic justice.

[Recluse]

I think we have a new dynamic taking shape. And it is there for those that can read the signs.

Put yourself in their shoes. If you owned the business would you expand your building and buy new equipment if you thought things were going to go back as they were and ruin a good thing? Especially just so you could cut your own throat by selling primers to a group who cares nothing for your bread and butter. That's plain dumb if it was in any other industry huh? So are they going to expand? :grin:

Well, yes and no.

I've been talking to a few marketing folks at Winchester and Remington, and we've had some very interesting, insightful discussions.

On the surface, your analysis would seem dead-on 100% correct. "Why concentrate on making components rather than finished ammunition?"

And that's the million-primer question so many are asking. Here's the answer.

Those of us who reload go through more components--FAR MORE--than does the casual shooter who may shoot a box or two of ammo a month, at tops. And that is pistol ammo I'm talking about--not rifle ammo, which would be even less.

As I told the lady at Winchester, it was nothing for me to regular shoot close to a thousand rounds of (reloaded) ammunition per month before the primer/powder shortage. With a number of my pistol loads, I prefer Winchester primers and W231 powder. Prior to casting, I used to prefer Winchester jacketed bullets--and still buy them in bulk for my .223 loads.

So, as I explained, my shooting preferences create a bigger demand for Winchester products than does the casual 50-100 rounds a month shooter. And, Winchester (et al) make their money on volume sales rather than individual sales (obviously) when it comes to ammo and components.

As it was explained to me, first order was to fill gov't contracts/needs. Second order was to fill wholesaler (which flows to retailer) needs for public consumption. Third order was to fill component needs to online suppliers (Midway, Midsouth, Grafs, Powder Valley, et al) and brick & mortar stores who also dealt/deal in reloading supplies.

I've been assured by both Winchester and Remington that they have ZERO intentions of sticking it to the reloader segment of their consumer base. As I reminded them--and they heartily agreed--it would be suicidal. Both brands also manufacture firearms. Stiff me and I'll spend extra avoiding your brand--plus I'll buy an oxygen tank to give me extra breath to badmouth you.

In addition, reloaders are proven to be far more brand loyal than the casual shooter who shops for ammo simply by price. Reloaders purchase and consume far more than do the casual shooters.

But in an interesting positioning argument, the lady from Winchester brought up a valid point: Reloaders come from casual shooters for whom the "reloading bug" has bitten. Casual shooters do not come from the longtime reloaders. Therefore, best to have plentiful ammunition to keep the casual shooters interested in the sport, able to practice, etc.

After all, how many of us began reloading when someone who reloads showed us how much more we could shoot for the same amount of money--or less?

I think we just need to ride this one, and as Bass Ackwards wisely points out, learn our lessons. But I seriously doubt the component manufacturers will limit production/output thinking that not to do so would be cutting their own throats.

:coffee:

[fredj338]

SInce that last primer shortage, I have always maintained a 10K min. mixed primers for my reloading. I imagine after this one, others will too. SO the demnad will continue. That's pretty optimistic IMO. I just got my completed B.O. of 10K primers from Graf's ordered the end of March. It is going to take manuf. until Sept. just to fill B.O. I see this continuing until the end of the year. As long as the current ragtag admin. in DC doesn't throw out some antigun leg. That could fuel the stockpiling further, maybe to the 2010 elections.

[jonk]

If it is September, or even January, I'm set. Otherwise I see myself having trouble by this time next year.

[Rocky Raab]

If the current shortage/backorder situation is caused by a massive buying rush, how will know in September when this buying rush ends and the next one starts? What will be the difference?

This whole thing has MANY interwoven causes, all of which have been discussed to death. The shortage will end when the panic ends, pure and simple. Some of the demand will go away as orders are indeed filled. More will disappear when lots of new reloaders simply give up trying to get stuff.

Things may never get back to the way they were, though.

[Recluse]

The shortage will end when the panic ends, pure and simple.

Or, the panic will end when the shortage ends, pure and simple. :)


Things may never get back to the way they were, though.

I'm afraid you're 100% correct there.

:coffee:

[fredj338]

Or, the panic will end when the shortage ends, pure and simple. :)



I'm afraid you're 100% correct there.

:coffee:
No, I think we'll be fine after this all settles down. It did in 93-94, it will again. You can only spend so much on stuff you don't over buying of ammo & components. I just won't be so optimistic that it will be anytime before the end of the year.

[looseprojectile]

I may have posted on this earlier.
I am recovering from the gunshow on Saturday and Sunday. Bought nothing.
One vendor had 9mm hollow point jacketed bullets priced at $27.50 per hundred.
Last week I bought Winchester white box bulk pack 9mm ammo which includes bullets for $19.97 per hundred. My point is, don't get too panicky in your buying, shop around.
I have great friends and contacts that, so far, have kept me supplied with components. I hope that I can regulate my stash to ride out the shortages.

Life is good

[fatnhappy]

This is what happened after the last shortage during the first gulf war.



I'm firmly of the opinion that it had nothing to do with the gulf war, in the same vein that the current shortage has nothing to do with the gulf war.
We've been involved in continuous combat for almost 8 years, but didn't have a primer shortage until the last 8 months. The first shortage occured during the Clinton administration. Pure and simple, the increased demand is driven by the civilian sector reading the political winds of Washington.

[JW6108]

This was asked in the Technical Q&A section of July's American Rifleman. For those of you that aren't members, I'll pass a little along.

"...it appears to be a simple problem with supply and demand, with demand reaching record levels and far exceeding supply and production capacity of both primers and ammunition."

"Military demand is up with some makers, but not radically so if compared with 2007 and 2008."

"Production has been expanded everywhere possible, but conservatively. Major firms have been hesitant to purchase new, previously unplanned tooling or add permanent employees out of uncertainty over future legislative issues...."

"...it's difficult, if not impossible, to quickly and radically increase primer production due to the nature of primer manufacturing."

"The surging demand for .380 ACP caught forecasters at the ammunition companies flat-footed."

"How deep is the current demand for ammunition and primers, and how long will it last? No one knows."