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View Full Version : How to buy One Million Primers....



Texasflyboy
04-27-2009, 11:26 AM
With the scarcity of primers in today's market I thought it time to share with folks here my personal experience with buying 1,000,000 primers in 2000.

Why would anyone want to buy 1,000,000 primers you may well ask?

Well, it was because of a number of reasons:

1. Our little shooting group ran the numbers and decided our combined demand = 1,000,000 over 5-10 years of use or less. A million primers isn't a lot when you have three or four IPSC/IDPA shooters in your group. 1K or 2K per person per week in practice eats a lot of ammo rather quickly. And two members reloaded rifle ammo for their Class 3 toys. Standard load, but in volume. They used a lot of large rifle primers.

2. We all remembered the buying panic of 1994, and did not forget it. Rather, most of us still had its memory fresh in our minds. None of us wanted to ever be short of primers again.

3. We had enough folks and enough financial commitment to make it happen.

4. Running the numbers revealed we would enjoy a 20% price break vs. what we paid locally.

So we did it.

This is our personal experience. Your mileage may vary.

We started this project on or about March of 2000. Right after the Y2K mini-panic. Inventory levels were starting to return to normal and prices were dropping. We found a local commercial reloader who loaded for the local market and opened a dialogue with him. His yearly order from one of the major mfg's was xxx lbs of gunpowder and xxx,xxx of primers. We sat down with him and asked him if it would be in his interests to allow us to piggyback on his next commercial order for primers, also some of the powder. That day I discovered you can buy (not easily) W231 in 32 lb cardboard barrels. I had never seen one until that day.

He contacted two of the suppliers, and ultimately we went with Winchester. For two very easy to understand reasons, price and availability.

Now to the end of the story. It took well over 18 months from start to finish before we had our primers in hand. But we got them. The delivered price per 5,000 sleeve for large pistol was $58.65. That price included all our expenses, including shipping. Shipping was FOB Winchester's dock. It took two trips to get them all, because not all of the production was available at once. As I recall we picked up the small rifle and small pistol primers first, then the large rifle and large pistol next a few months later. The total price for the whole primer purchase was about $11,500.00 or so, split 8 different ways (Some took more, some took less).

What I know is this: There is no permanent shortage of primers today. Period.

What is going on is this:

Demand today for primers exceeds supply today. Supply of primers is relatively inelastic when compared to demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. When demand falls, prices fall.

There will be more primers on the market. Expect to wait at least 6 months to 1 year before they become *reasonably* available again. But they will be available. All of the mfg's have reasonable and justifiable restrictions on their ability to respond to a sudden surge in demand. This restriction is time based, not resource based. It takes TIME to meet demand, not necessarily resources.

I haven't had to buy primers or powder since that large purchase. It consumed my entire gun buying/gunshow budget for 1 year. I am still using those primers and powder today.

The moral of my tale is this: If you're concerned about primers or powder, bite the bullet the next time sanity returns to the market and stockpile a 10 year or more supply and insulate yourself from these temporary swings in demand.

Responding to a panic by feeding the herd mentality will only cost you your hard earned money. Prices for primers, and the supply thereof, will again be reasonable and available as mfg's respond to demand within their ability.

That's my advice.

JSnover
04-27-2009, 12:05 PM
Demand today for primers exceeds supply today. Supply of primers is relatively inelastic when compared to demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. When demand falls, prices fall.

There will be more primers on the market. Expect to wait at least 6 months to 1 year before they become *reasonably* available again. But they will be available. All of the mfg's have reasonable and justifiable restrictions on their ability to respond to a sudden surge in demand. This restriction is time based, not resource based. It takes TIME to meet demand, not necessarily resources.

I haven't had to buy primers or powder since that large purchase. It consumed my entire gun buying/gunshow budget for 1 year. I am still using those primers and powder today.

The moral of my tale is this: If you're concerned about primers or powder, bite the bullet the next time sanity returns to the market and stockpile a 10 year or more supply and insulate yourself from these temporary swings in demand.

Responding to a panic by feeding the herd mentality will only cost you your hard earned money. Prices for primers, and the supply thereof, will again be reasonable and available as mfg's respond to demand within their ability.

That's my advice.

Greta post! No conspiracy theories, no whining.
I did the same thing (on a smaller scale) and I expect to be able to shoot and reload through the shortage.

mtgrs737
04-27-2009, 12:15 PM
I am a stockpiler and have all I need for the next 10 years or more. The best thing is I bought most of my primers at $6 to $7 a thousand, so that makes me smile. I am in the process of stockpiling wheel weight lead and a bit more powder and brass so the future looks bright for this hobby.

jonk
04-27-2009, 03:02 PM
I agree with the idea of wanting a long time supply, but disagree with one thing- if everyone followed your advice and laid in say 200,000 each the primer shortage would continue a lot longer.

EOD3
04-27-2009, 10:01 PM
I would like to recommend anyone with a similar plan check your local fire regulations. As quantities increase, storage and hazard signage requirements get more difficult to comply with. I don't remember the numbers and/or poundage limits but it doesn't take too long to reach "Explosive A" requirements. Trust me, you don't want to get involved with that level of BS.

only1asterisk
04-27-2009, 10:07 PM
I would like to recommend anyone with a similar plan check your local fire regulations. As quantities increase, storage and hazard signage requirements get more difficult to comply with. I don't remember the numbers and/or poundage limits but it doesn't take too long to reach "Explosive A" requirements. Trust me, you don't want to get involved with that level of BS.

This is true in many places. The nation association of pains in the ass have a suggested code that a great many local .govs have adopted. The number of primers before you start having to deal with BS is ridiculously low.

Catshooter
04-28-2009, 12:44 AM
I agree with the idea of wanting a long time supply, but disagree with one thing- if everyone followed your advice and laid in say 200,000 each the primer shortage would continue a lot longer.

Do you honestly think that will/would/could happen?

The man's advice is incredibly sensible and very soundly reasoned out.

You can't get a room full of people to agree on the time even if they were all looking and the same clock!

A small percentage of the people make things happen.

A small percentage of the people watch things happen.

The vast majority of the people stand around and wonder, what happend?


Cat

JDFuchs
04-28-2009, 01:15 AM
I agree with the idea of wanting a long time supply, but disagree with one thing- if everyone followed your advice and laid in say 200,000 each the primer shortage would continue a lot longer.

If people waited till primers and or powder were on sale to put in there huge orders, a small discount would add up with numbers like 200k, It would not add to any shortage situation since there would be at least a small surplus. Then since they don't need to resupply till a sale after the shortage there is that much less of a rush on them when there in short supply.

Slow Elk 45/70
04-28-2009, 01:59 AM
TexFlyBoy, good post, bottom line, Don't wait for a crisis to buy what you need on hand for your usage for a couple of years, it all stores well, and lasts for years.

No conspearecy, Yet....Just supply and demand.

Lloyd Smale
04-28-2009, 06:28 AM
sure hope your right and you can believe im going to take your advice and make sure i never get into this situation again. It would be strike 3 for me. probem was at the end of the first shortage i still had kids at home and couldnt afford to buy big and then just kind of figured it wouldnt happen again. this one came so fast it caught me with my pants down. NEVER AGAIN!

jmorris
04-28-2009, 09:47 AM
The moral of my tale is this: If you're concerned about primers or powder, bite the bullet the next time sanity returns to the market and stockpile a 10 year or more supply and insulate yourself from these temporary swings in demand.

Thats what folks are doing (even more in many cases) and thus the shortage.

I do however agree, It was only a few years ago that I went through my last of '94 pre AWB primers.

With some of the prices I've seen them selling for I have thought about selling some of the stock I currently have. With the profits I've seen you could buy at least 3 times what you sold when things get back to normal.