Texasflyboy
04-27-2009, 11:26 AM
With the scarcity of primers in today's market I thought it time to share with folks here my personal experience with buying 1,000,000 primers in 2000.
Why would anyone want to buy 1,000,000 primers you may well ask?
Well, it was because of a number of reasons:
1. Our little shooting group ran the numbers and decided our combined demand = 1,000,000 over 5-10 years of use or less. A million primers isn't a lot when you have three or four IPSC/IDPA shooters in your group. 1K or 2K per person per week in practice eats a lot of ammo rather quickly. And two members reloaded rifle ammo for their Class 3 toys. Standard load, but in volume. They used a lot of large rifle primers.
2. We all remembered the buying panic of 1994, and did not forget it. Rather, most of us still had its memory fresh in our minds. None of us wanted to ever be short of primers again.
3. We had enough folks and enough financial commitment to make it happen.
4. Running the numbers revealed we would enjoy a 20% price break vs. what we paid locally.
So we did it.
This is our personal experience. Your mileage may vary.
We started this project on or about March of 2000. Right after the Y2K mini-panic. Inventory levels were starting to return to normal and prices were dropping. We found a local commercial reloader who loaded for the local market and opened a dialogue with him. His yearly order from one of the major mfg's was xxx lbs of gunpowder and xxx,xxx of primers. We sat down with him and asked him if it would be in his interests to allow us to piggyback on his next commercial order for primers, also some of the powder. That day I discovered you can buy (not easily) W231 in 32 lb cardboard barrels. I had never seen one until that day.
He contacted two of the suppliers, and ultimately we went with Winchester. For two very easy to understand reasons, price and availability.
Now to the end of the story. It took well over 18 months from start to finish before we had our primers in hand. But we got them. The delivered price per 5,000 sleeve for large pistol was $58.65. That price included all our expenses, including shipping. Shipping was FOB Winchester's dock. It took two trips to get them all, because not all of the production was available at once. As I recall we picked up the small rifle and small pistol primers first, then the large rifle and large pistol next a few months later. The total price for the whole primer purchase was about $11,500.00 or so, split 8 different ways (Some took more, some took less).
What I know is this: There is no permanent shortage of primers today. Period.
What is going on is this:
Demand today for primers exceeds supply today. Supply of primers is relatively inelastic when compared to demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. When demand falls, prices fall.
There will be more primers on the market. Expect to wait at least 6 months to 1 year before they become *reasonably* available again. But they will be available. All of the mfg's have reasonable and justifiable restrictions on their ability to respond to a sudden surge in demand. This restriction is time based, not resource based. It takes TIME to meet demand, not necessarily resources.
I haven't had to buy primers or powder since that large purchase. It consumed my entire gun buying/gunshow budget for 1 year. I am still using those primers and powder today.
The moral of my tale is this: If you're concerned about primers or powder, bite the bullet the next time sanity returns to the market and stockpile a 10 year or more supply and insulate yourself from these temporary swings in demand.
Responding to a panic by feeding the herd mentality will only cost you your hard earned money. Prices for primers, and the supply thereof, will again be reasonable and available as mfg's respond to demand within their ability.
That's my advice.
Why would anyone want to buy 1,000,000 primers you may well ask?
Well, it was because of a number of reasons:
1. Our little shooting group ran the numbers and decided our combined demand = 1,000,000 over 5-10 years of use or less. A million primers isn't a lot when you have three or four IPSC/IDPA shooters in your group. 1K or 2K per person per week in practice eats a lot of ammo rather quickly. And two members reloaded rifle ammo for their Class 3 toys. Standard load, but in volume. They used a lot of large rifle primers.
2. We all remembered the buying panic of 1994, and did not forget it. Rather, most of us still had its memory fresh in our minds. None of us wanted to ever be short of primers again.
3. We had enough folks and enough financial commitment to make it happen.
4. Running the numbers revealed we would enjoy a 20% price break vs. what we paid locally.
So we did it.
This is our personal experience. Your mileage may vary.
We started this project on or about March of 2000. Right after the Y2K mini-panic. Inventory levels were starting to return to normal and prices were dropping. We found a local commercial reloader who loaded for the local market and opened a dialogue with him. His yearly order from one of the major mfg's was xxx lbs of gunpowder and xxx,xxx of primers. We sat down with him and asked him if it would be in his interests to allow us to piggyback on his next commercial order for primers, also some of the powder. That day I discovered you can buy (not easily) W231 in 32 lb cardboard barrels. I had never seen one until that day.
He contacted two of the suppliers, and ultimately we went with Winchester. For two very easy to understand reasons, price and availability.
Now to the end of the story. It took well over 18 months from start to finish before we had our primers in hand. But we got them. The delivered price per 5,000 sleeve for large pistol was $58.65. That price included all our expenses, including shipping. Shipping was FOB Winchester's dock. It took two trips to get them all, because not all of the production was available at once. As I recall we picked up the small rifle and small pistol primers first, then the large rifle and large pistol next a few months later. The total price for the whole primer purchase was about $11,500.00 or so, split 8 different ways (Some took more, some took less).
What I know is this: There is no permanent shortage of primers today. Period.
What is going on is this:
Demand today for primers exceeds supply today. Supply of primers is relatively inelastic when compared to demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. When demand falls, prices fall.
There will be more primers on the market. Expect to wait at least 6 months to 1 year before they become *reasonably* available again. But they will be available. All of the mfg's have reasonable and justifiable restrictions on their ability to respond to a sudden surge in demand. This restriction is time based, not resource based. It takes TIME to meet demand, not necessarily resources.
I haven't had to buy primers or powder since that large purchase. It consumed my entire gun buying/gunshow budget for 1 year. I am still using those primers and powder today.
The moral of my tale is this: If you're concerned about primers or powder, bite the bullet the next time sanity returns to the market and stockpile a 10 year or more supply and insulate yourself from these temporary swings in demand.
Responding to a panic by feeding the herd mentality will only cost you your hard earned money. Prices for primers, and the supply thereof, will again be reasonable and available as mfg's respond to demand within their ability.
That's my advice.