The pendulum swings. What’s after 9mm?

[shooting on a shoestring]

9mm is currently all the rage with police departments and it seems most civilians thinking self defense. And for a couple of good reasons. It’s cheap, easy to shoot and you can get lots of those little cartridges in a pistol.

Of course most of us remember when .40 S&W came out and displaced 9mm bc 40 had much better terminal performance. The FBI Miami shootout being a catalyst for the 10mm lite which morphed into .40 S&W. At that swing of the pendulum police departments were dumping 9mm guns cheap and 40’s were going for MSRP. Now guns in 40 are cheap and 9’s are full price.

Before the .40 S&W craze, the high capacity 9mm’s were the gun to have, displacing .357 Magnum revolvers, which displaced 38’s, which displaced 32’s…

So, I’d guess we’re about due for another swing away from 9mm to something else which will be perceived as a much better improvement. I’m wondering what that next thing might be.

A shift back to revolvers might be called for bc new shooters having less mechanical ability might do better with the simplicity of a revolver. Police departments wouldn’t have the problem of mag dumps in a suburban fight. Perhaps the bean counters could justify that revolvers use less ammunition and hence are cheaper (stupid but I said “bean counters”).

I could see an argument for moving to .327 Fed or .32 H&R. Heck what’s old might become new and the .38 Special might be the thing. Of course it would have to be touted as having some new bullet technology that makes it much more effective than 9mm.

What can y’all imagine as being the next hot thing?

[fastdadio]

I agree with your post. We've been watching the current trends flow one way or another back and forth for decades. I've learned a few things over the years. The more things change, the more they stay the same. I took advantage recently by picking up a nice police trade in high cap 9mm S&W mod 915 for low dough. Had it out yesterday, it's a fine shootin iron. But as I sit here on the porch watching the world go by, if the situation gets up close and ugly, I'm still reaching for my Colt 1911, and there's still no arguing with that one across the length of the porch.

[GhostHawk]

I can't speak for anyone else, but for myself I would much prefer shooting .32sw longs in a revolver compared to 9mm in a semi auto. But that is just me, YMMV.

[Froogal]

Before I bought my first semi-auto, I was seriously considering a .40 caliber, but then I noticed that 9mm ammo was everywhere, and the .40 caliber had to be hunted for, so I bought a 9mm.

Having said that, my go to for every day carry is a .38 special snubby.

[Larry Gibson]

I've lived through 3 different 9mm fads, crazes or whatever with the 40 short and weak thrown in since the 50's. I still prefer the 45 ACP......in a M1911 format.

[Baltimoreed]

Nostalgia is ok but I don’t think .38 special 158 gr round nose in 6 shot double action OP or M&P revolvers are ever coming back to a PD near you, Mayberry PD excepted of course.

[Mr Peabody]

I don't look to see the PD's move away from Glock or the 9mm.

[dverna]

9mm will be here for a very very long time. I have other calibers but the 9mm just works and works well. When I try to talk new self-defense gun owners into a revolver, I have not been successful. Too many other "experts" out there. And I understand new shooters, who are not skilled, wanting more rounds in the gun for spray and pray.

[Finster101]

Been carrying a .45 ACP 1911 for 30 plus years. I don't see that changing.

[Electrod47]

You know the Gyrojet was an absolute failure. But, it would not surprise me somebody somewhere is working on a similar platform right now.

[Baltimoreed]

Aren’t there precision guided munitions for 12 ga shotguns? Just a matter of making them smaller.

[35remington]

Whatever we are using now will seem dated and obsolete in 30 years and the way we currently hold and shoot pistols will be made fun of.

Doubt that? Google “FBI Crouch” “Weaver Stance” or 38 Special lead round nose.

We never settle on anything as a final answer and the role of “progress” sees change occurring more often over time.

Not saying one idea is “righter” than another. Just that we chase different and disparage the past. Welcome to the current way of doing things.

Who knows. The 9mm may get replaced by a saboted sub caliber round generating very high velocity in the future and the 9 will be chastised as being low velocity, incapable of penetrating soft armor and have too much recoil. Sound familiar?

The bell can toll for the nine, too. It has in the past, and it can again. It very likely will. Gotta have something new and mo betta to sell to keep the masses interested.

[memtb]

How about the 5.7x28! Low (OK almost no recoil) for the recoil timid, high capacity (for those that can’t hit their intended target), moderately light weight (minimal strength/conditioning required), relatively small grip size for all genders (even the imaginary ones) making it as politically acceptable as possible for those opposed to armed law enforcement! The future is here! :sad: memtb

[metricmonkeywrench]

How about a hard left into air/gas powered somewhere in the .25 to .40 range (round ball?) to appease the "high powered gun" or "guns of war" fearmongers.

[freakonaleash]

I have a couple 9mm's, I really don't care for them. 45 ACP works for me in semi auto and .44 special works for me in revolvers. Neither one has to be loaded all that hot to be effective.

[Battis]

Back in the 80s, there were 28 in my police academy class. We all had revolvers. Two of us had .357s - everyone else had .38s. At the range, it sounded like this: pop pop pop BOOOM pop. What are you shooting? I was asked. 1400 rounds later, my hand hurt. Then, in the 90s we switched to Sig Sauer .9mm (made in Germany at that time). After I left, they switched to .357 semi autos - now I think they're back to .9mm.
I'd like to see .45 acp for police.

[rintinglen]

I predict that the rule of the 9mm will be a long one. It does too many things right, and despite the myth of "4+," it is effective with good ammo when pointed straight. Now my last duty gun was a Sig 220 45 ACP, and I like it very much, but I have seen many new shooters struggling with more gun than they can handle. The 9mm does not present that problem, save for perhaps in some of the micro nine models. (Which would really be bears in a 40 or 45). 9mm's carry lots of ammo, reassuring to those who either can't shoot or think they're John Wicke. They are available in a wide variety of sizes to fit nearly any hand, ranging from duty weapons down to pocket sized. Something for everyone.

What comes next? Who knows: phasers? Lasers? Blasters? Hand flamers? Check Buck Rogers or Star Wars--those are as good a guess as any that I can make.

[Battis]

When I started as a cop, there were actually a few old timers carrying .38s with loops on their belts for extra rounds - no speed loaders.
That's a look you can't beat.

[yovinny]

This type talk always somehow reminds me of H&K announcing that all brass cased ammo would be obsolete by....
.
.
.
.
1990.... LOL...;)

[AZ Pete]

The 9mm parabellum has been more than adequate for its designed purpose since 1901. There have been fads (one of the county sheriff departments in Texas adopted the .41 Mag in my young adulthood). But unless the anatomy of bad guys changes, I suspect that the 9mm will remain with us.

[357Mag]

shooting -

Howdy !

I can't imagine the 9mm ever " going away .

The Vietnam experience showed the propensity for shooters to " spray N pray " under high stress /life threatening situations.
And, while that was more a military rifle use circumstance; the mind set ( for many ) did not go away. And that is just one example.

Comparative higher round count available 9mm semi-auto format and relatively benign recoil have endeared these guns to many.
Another thing: Guns that delivery higher amounts of energy also bring with that... higher recoil. For many shooters, that aspect is not attractive in a CCW gun, when " controllability " is certainly a valid consideration. That reality has worked against wide-spread acceptance of things like .38 Super, 10mm Auto, .41Mag, .357Mag et al. The .40 S & W and .45Gap are some examples of concerted efforts that were made to design useful self-defense cartridges that hit a good balance of " Accuracy - Power - Speed ".

So.... the 9mm pretty much won't be going " away ", at least in the civilian market ( IMHO ), as it can be perceived as less "abusive " to many.


With regards,
357Mag

[Onebigelf]

I most often carry one of 3 pistols. A 45 ACP Ruger 1911CMD, a 9mm High Power, or a 38sp S&W model 60. I've never found a need for anything else. I OWN lots of else, but I've never found a need for it ;-)

John

[1eyedjack]

The civilian market has always followed what our military uses. NATO has influenced our military also. What we carry when we serve becomes familiar & comfortable. Us old farts like the 1911 in .45ACP & .308 in whatever long guns. The .556 is fun to shoot & doesn't punish the shooter & the 9mm is the same way. Both are "economical" to shoot because of "surplus" ammo. There will be new , gee whiz products both in ammo & firearms but the old standbys will still be with us until the military adopts some thing new....or something old again because the rules changed again. Vietnam was close jungle warfare, the middle east has been open desert or urban warfare depending on mission & who knows what our politicians will see as a threat next....more than likely something that will put money in their pocket...

[Der Gebirgsjager]

I doubt if we'll see another big change any time soon.

The 9mm (originally developed before World War I !) has been around for a long time, and has great acceptance worldwide. Official cartridge use always seems to take into account the fact that they will be used by a mass of people ranging from naturally gifted shooters to those much less proficient. There are always the exceptions, such as lightweight females who shoot the .45 ACP well, but in actual practice most of those seem to prefer the 9mm. The 9mm has become sort of the peanut butter that spreads across the entire range of shooters from the very experienced, mildly proficient, and beginners; but which will deliver the goods ballistics-wise if the properly designed bullet can be placed in the proper location.

The round that failed to attract much following, and which fact really surprised me, is the .357 Sig. .45 ACP, my personal first choice, has always been criticized as being "too much" for some folks, so it goes without saying that the 10mm, .45 Colt, and .44 Mag. are likewise unsuitable for many. .38 Special and .357 Mag., while good choices, are for the most part restricted to revolvers (I know of the few exceptions, but rimmed cartridges generally don't design well into semi-autos), and most cartridges smaller than the 9mm like the .32 ACP and .380 Auto are kind of problematical. There isn't much room to be filled by a new cartridge other than for it to be new and novel, but the ballistics chart is pretty well crowded as it is.

Conclusion is, I think the 9mm will be with us until invention of the death ray.

DG

[Char-Gar]

1. The day of the police revolver is long gone and will never come back.

2. The day of the 40 S&W is also gone. It proved to hard for some women LEOs to handle.

3. I like the 1911 in 45 ACP but apart from a few crusty old officers who can buy and carry what they want, it too is gone.

4. Like it or not the plastic frame, hi-cap, striker fired 9mm is here to stay for a very long time. At least until the ray gun is issued. I don't like it, but nobody give a hoot what I think or like these days.

[oldsalt444]

"What comes next? Who knows: phasers? Lasers? Blasters? Hand flamers? Check Buck Rogers or Star Wars--those are as good a guess as any that I can make."


How about a broomhandle mauser in 30 Luger? That's what Han Solo used.

[poppy42]

How about the 5.7x28! Low (OK almost no recoil) for the recoil timid, high capacity (for those that can’t hit their intended target), moderately light weight (minimal strength/conditioning required), relatively small grip size for all genders (even the imaginary ones) making it as politically acceptable as possible for those opposed to armed law enforcement! The future is here! :sad: memtb

I looked into that caliber, RIA has a gun chamber in 9 mm comes with the barrel and whatever else is required to also shoot 5.7 x 28. Everything I seen or read tells me that besides over penetration, there is questions about stopping power, and reliability ( as in feed an function). I know there are those that tout the benefits of a lite super fast round. It has its place but I don’t ever see it replacing 9, .40, or 45 as a preferred round for law enforcement.

[poppy42]

1. The day of the police revolver is long gone and will never come back.

2. The day of the 40 S&W is also gone. It proved to hard for some women LEOs to handle.

3. I like the 1911 in 45 ACP but apart from a few crusty old officers who can buy and carry what they want, it too is gone.

4. Like it or not the plastic frame, hi-cap, striker fired 9mm is here to stay for a very long time. At least until the ray gun is issued. I don't like it, but nobody give a hoot what I think or like these days.

I seriously doubt that the law-enforcement community‘s decision to switch from 40 back to 9mm had little if anything to do with the ability of female officers being able to shoot it. Personally I think that’s one of those Internet myths. I believe the decision had more to do with cost, round count, ware and tear on the firearm ( most of not all of the 40’s I’ve had contact with are nothing more than 9 mm frames with the parts needed to accommodate the larger caliber), the so called advancement in ammunition, and the availability of said ammunition (9x19 is the most manufactured pistol caliber round in the world). As far as polymer framed handguns being here to stay you’re definitely spot on with that statement.

[Char-Gar]

I seriously doubt that the law-enforcement community‘s decision to switch from 40 back to 9mm had little if anything to do with the ability of female officers being able to shoot it. Personally I think that’s one of those Internet myths. .

I read the FBI report about that is why the FBI went back to the 9mm from the 40 S&W. I read it on a Law Enforcement blog. To many female agents had trouble qualifying with the 40. That at least is not a myth.

[bangerjim]

I prefer the accuracy, feel, and re-loading ease of the 38, 44, and 45 in revolvers ANY day! I rarely shoot my semi's in 9mm and 40 S&W any longer. Too difficult to get the load/length JUST right for the 9's. And accuracy is something to really wish for with those guns! Close up, they are OK but I like at least 40-60 yards.

Such a wide variation of boolit designs and weights and tons of powders and load data for the revolver rounds mentioned above!

"If ya' can't getter dun in 6 rounds, ya' might as well jes throw the gun at the target".

banger :guntootsmiley:

[dla]

9mm is currently all the rage with police departments and it seems most civilians thinking self defense. And for a couple of good reasons. It’s cheap, easy to shoot and you can get lots of those little cartridges in a pistol.

Of course most of us remember when .40 S&W came out and displaced 9mm bc 40 had much better terminal performance. The FBI Miami shootout being a catalyst for the 10mm lite which morphed into .40 S&W. At that swing of the pendulum police departments were dumping 9mm guns cheap and 40’s were going for MSRP. Now guns in 40 are cheap and 9’s are full price.

Before the .40 S&W craze, the high capacity 9mm’s were the gun to have, displacing .357 Magnum revolvers, which displaced 38’s, which displaced 32’s…

So, I’d guess we’re about due for another swing away from 9mm to something else which will be perceived as a much better improvement. I’m wondering what that next thing might be.

A shift back to revolvers might be called for bc new shooters having less mechanical ability might do better with the simplicity of a revolver. Police departments wouldn’t have the problem of mag dumps in a suburban fight. Perhaps the bean counters could justify that revolvers use less ammunition and hence are cheaper (stupid but I said “bean counters”).

I could see an argument for moving to .327 Fed or .32 H&R. Heck what’s old might become new and the .38 Special might be the thing. Of course it would have to be touted as having some new bullet technology that makes it much more effective than 9mm.

What can y’all imagine as being the next hot thing?
I think the 9mm man-boys will drive the market for some time, mainly because they like to play make-believe dress up more than actually shoot.
They like to talk about their trigger upgrades, higher capacity mag floorplates, optical sights, etc. - anything except actually shooting.
If they mature into actual shooters then we'll see a revival of other cartridges.
IMHO of course.

[shooting on a shoestring]

Yep the 9mm is old as 38 Special and both are a long ways from extinction.

But think what it looked like in 1980. The Browning Hi Power had been out for over 40 years. It was a very successful high capacity 9mm. Jacketed hollow points had been common for a couple of decades. No one in 1980 would have said “Hey, in 40 years people will think cops should carry plastic 9mm’s”.

In 1980 45 Colt was obsolete except for a few folks who wanted to shoot Great Grandad’s old SAA. 10mm and 32 H&R hadn’t made the scene yet. Glock? Whoever thought that’d be a gun name? .327? Never saw that one coming.

Yep I think in 10 years police trade in 9mm’s will be plentiful and cheap like Model 10’s once were. I just don’t have a guess what will push them out of favor again.

I do appreciate the ideas and opinions y’all are throwing out there. It’ll be fun to pull this old thread up in 10 years and have a chuckle.

[Winger Ed.]

Tupperware pistols chambered in 9mm will be around and in production long after all of us are gone.

[jonp]

SW just announced their M&P is going to be out in 10mm. 4 and 4.6in. I wouldnt be surprised to see some departments go that way but unless something really outshines 9mm with modern ammo I think that one will continue due to the increased female and non gun people in law enforcement.

But...let off a round of 357, 41Mag or 44Mag at the range and everyone going pop! with their 9's stops and looks much like when everyone is plinking away with their AR's and I pull the trigger on my .416.

[G W Wade]

Been carrying a .45 ACP 1911 for 30 plus years. I don't see that changing.
The loyal following of what works works Been carrying 1911 45 acp since 1972 Short , fat and slow will get the job done GW

[Froogal]

Is recoil really an issue? My SAA in .45 Colt with a 7 1/2" barrel produces far less recoil than my M&P Shield 9mm, but the Shield is much easier to conceal.

[MostlyLeverGuns]

Like AZ Pete, the 9 has been around a very long time, not all cops are shooters, training someone to be effective with a nine is easier and cheaper than the .40 or .45, maybe not 'THE GREATEST' stopper, but like the .38 Special, 'non-gunners' can learn to shoot it effectively, it is only HITS that stop a fight. I like the .40 in an ex-cop P226 SIG and I've carried a 1911 .45 more than anything else, but the 9 is easier AND CHEAPER to shoot.

[JohnH]

I certainly don't see a return of the service revolver. I've moved away from semi auto's for my daily plinkin' because I hate chasin' brass anymore. I went so far as to buy a Blackhawk with a 45 ACP cylinder so that I could use all the 45 ACP cases and bullet molds I got without having to bend over to pick up any brass. Guys my age (coming up hard on 63) and older all say the same thing when they see me at the range with my wheel guns, "I'm gonna get me a revolver again". One guy's been saying it near five years now. I take it he ain't sick and tired yet.

There is no question as to the superiority of the semi auto v revolver as a fighting tool. Yeah, I've heard it a before, "If you can't solve it in 2 or 3, 10 or 25 ain't gonna help." and in the same breath we'll defend 30 round mags for AR's saying, "You never know when you are going to have to deal with multiple attackers and misses and such, besides who is the government to tell me how many rounds I need for my rifle" Follow some self defense shootings on You Tube. When the lead starts flyin' there's lots of it in the air, and most folk don't wanna be stuck loadin' when they oughta be a shootzen.

I don't think there is gonna be anything after the 9 Parabellum. There is a reason it's ballistic twin 38 Special was the king of service calibers for the best part of 70 years, it was user friendly. Remember when Keith and Company tried to talk the world into the 41 Mag for a service revolver? A fe stepped up and went to 357 mag. Remember when Cooper and Company tried to talk the world into the 10 Auto? The FBI downloaded it and then shortened it to the 40 S&W. Why? Because most cops out there are not shooters nor shooting enthusiasts and most police work doesn't revolve around shooting skills, it revolves around people skills. One of the biggest complaints in the police world is about officers who don't or won't spend time at the range beyond what is required for the job. Those people are not going to bother learning how to handle something heavier and hotter and their departments aren't going to push them into either. Anyone who knows anything about handguns knows that handgun stopping power is a myth. You need the bad guy to stop now? Hit him with a 12 gauge, and even then there are cases where that didn't stop the fight at that moment. There is a reason Sheriff Grady Judd says, "Shoot 'em, and shoot 'em a lot"

What's after the 9mm? Considering that modern firearms and ammunition is a mature science, likely some kind of 40 to 100 kilowatt phaser.

[tazman]

I read the FBI report about that is why the FBI went back to the 9mm from the 40 S&W. I read it on a Law Enforcement blog. To many female agents had trouble qualifying with the 40. That at least is not a myth.

Two years ago, I spoke with a soldier who was home on leave and was practicing at our indoor range. He saw my Springfield Range Officer in 9mm and talked about it for a bit.
He said his job was in handgun range training/qualifications where he saw many different people trying to get qualified with various handguns. He said they kept a few 1911 pistols in 9mm in the armory because some of the women could not handle the recoil of the M9 in 9mm. The 1911 frame recoiled so little that the women who were having issues could handle it.
He also said that in the worst cases, where they really needed a female to qualify, he or another person would fire the targets and get them qualified.
After they got their qualification papers, those people carried the standard firearm that they could not qualify with.
While I don't like the sound of that, I can see it happening.

[tazman]

I prefer the accuracy, feel, and re-loading ease of the 38, 44, and 45 in revolvers ANY day! I rarely shoot my semi's in 9mm and 40 S&W any longer. Too difficult to get the load/length JUST right for the 9's. And accuracy is something to really wish for with those guns! Close up, they are OK but I like at least 40-60 yards.

Such a wide variation of boolit designs and weights and tons of powders and load data for the revolver rounds mentioned above!

"If ya' can't getter dun in 6 rounds, ya' might as well jes throw the gun at the target".

banger :guntootsmiley:

One of the reasons for the high capacity 9mm handguns in the military was the very real possibility of needing all that extra ammo in a firefight situation. That was also one of the reasons for the 556/223 round. All the extra ammo a person could carry for the same weight.
I don't have the experience to claim they were right or wrong.

[Tonto]

Use the fishing lure analogy. Flashy, wiggly, sinking, floating, bright, dull, noisy, quiet, articulated and on and on. The guns and calibers that come and go and come and go again are promoted by the industry trying to extract money from their market (us.). Look at the new red dots on semi autos, tricked out bolt guns. New and improved for the sale. 9, 40, 45 and just about everything else will work for most applications. Semi autos, revolvers, single shots all have their place. In the end, the industry writes about worms and 22’s about once a year. I like them all.

[Tokarev]

But unless the anatomy of bad guys changes, I suspect that the 9mm will remain with us.
The anatomy has changed over that time. The average height and weight have grown dramatically. A round that had been adequate 100 years ago may not be anymore.

[megasupermagnum]

If I have to throw out a guess, nothing significant will happen until a new firearm is invented. By that, I mean some other type of semi-auto. Once something other than the current tipping barrel (I consider the rotary a variation of the same), recoil operated semi auto pistol is invented, then things will change. Until then, 9mm luger is about as perfect as it gets in the current handguns we have. Yes, I get the irony of the cartridge originally coming out in a toggle action. My feeling is that the slide action pistols as we know them will change. I'm thinking a fixed frame, and moving internals. I also don't think this will happen for decades.

[dverna]

There will be nothing better than the 9mm for police duty in my lifetime.

What you or I use is immaterial.

BTW, history should not be ignored. After over 100 years, what caliber is still the most used?

[reddog81]

With the availability of primers these days I’d go with a flint lock.


Just kidding. I’ll hopefully be shooting the 100+ year old 9mm and 45ACP cartridges for the next couple decades. They get the job done. The current crop of 9mm carry guns are so small that if they go any smaller they’ll have to get rid of the grip or barrel.

[doghawg]

I prefer the accuracy, feel, and re-loading ease of the 38, 44, and 45 in revolvers ANY day! I rarely shoot my semi's in 9mm and 40 S&W any longer. Too difficult to get the load/length JUST right for the 9's. And accuracy is something to really wish for with those guns! Close up, they are OK but I like at least 40-60 yards.



banger :guntootsmiley:

You need to try a Dan Wesson PM9.

[Finster101]

The loyal following of what works works Been carrying 1911 45 acp since 1972 Short , fat and slow will get the job done GW

We have never met. How do you know I'm short, fat and slow? :kidding:

[fatelk]

The 9mm is really nothing special, other than the fact that it's pretty much the all-around right balance of size, weight, and power for most people under most circumstances. It's somehow disappointing for those of us who like .45 and the like, but there seems to be a mountain of evidence that the 9mm is as effective in most circumstances as the larger calibers (with modern ammo), and is easier for the average person to control.

Funny thing is that the same evidence seems to show that anything .380acp and up are about equally effective, though 357 mag is still the king. I find it interesting to read through the studies on stopping power and handgun ballistics. They show that statistically the .380 is plenty good enough and most gun uses are over with just a few rounds fired. This tells me that I'd be just as well off, on average, with a 2" J-frame .38 (with good bullets) or a little .380 LCP, as someone else with a 1911 or Glock 19 on their hip.

Yea, it seems counterintuitive, and I'm not saying that I entirely believe it, but it does make me wonder.

[Bmi48219]

The guns and calibers that come and go and come and go again are promoted by the industry trying to extract money from their market

I agree with Tonto, there are hundreds of pistol cartridges out there, of which 5 or 6 are accurate, powerful and shootable enough for 95% of situations encountered by LEO & SD shooters. For a “new” cartridge to be profitable it has to meet the requirements of accuracy, power and shootability, AND firearm manufacturers have to produce lots of reliable weapons that chamber it. That doesn’t mean firearm and ammo manufacturers are going to quit trying. They’re the only group with more at stake in the Second Amendment than us. Back in the 1870’s semi auto pistols were a novelty, pretty sure they outnumber revolvers now. How much of the popularity of Pistol Caliber Carbines results from the fact everyone already has pistols, rifles, shotguns, ARs and every other form of firearm? Marketing something NEW and desirable makes money.
In the short term I don’t see the ammo guys investing to produce a “new” cartridge when they can’t meet current ammo demand.
I believe the next change will be to case-less ammo. Or to separate ignitable gas propellant and projectile systems, like the butane powered nail guns in use now. Either way, reloading ammo becomes way harder to do and easier to track. When the DoD adopts case-less ammo Everyone Else will follow suit.

[country gent]

As,someone has mentioned the gyro jet I will also interject the old daisy vl cartridge. Not that either of these would be brought back, but I expect here shortly the new big fad will be caseless ammo in some form. A 38 or 9 mm caliber with no case to deal with would aid reliability do away with the need for extractors and ejectors make for a smaller arm. The action could be sealed to outside elements.

[DDriller]

10mm is on it's way back up.

[ohen cepel]

I think 9mm will be on top for a long time unless there is another Miami type of failure using 9mm HP ammo. Not likely, but a high profile failure of the 9mm again may cost it some fans. It is a good balance for a handgun.

Yes, 10mm is coming back but not in the police world. Seems to be more for the non-wheel gun guys who stick to autos but want more power.

[megasupermagnum]

BTW, history should not be ignored. After over 100 years, what caliber is still the most used?

I'm just throwing out a guess, but 2 3/4" 12 gauge I'd assume?

[LaPoint]

I doubt that Law Enforcement will go away from semi-auto handguns for several reasons. They are easier to train non-shooters to shoot accurately. It takes more fine motor skill to reload a revolver, even using speed loaders or moon clips. Most people getting into law enforcement are no longer firearms people. Besides capacity, revolvers often can not be brought back into service in the field once a stoppage occurs from a squib load. Revolvers are a fine watch, mechanically speaking, whereas the latest fantastic plastic combat tupperware (striker fired composite frame semi-auto) is a sun dial. I started in the late '80s and was issued a S&W model 13, Shortly after that we were allowed to carry our own semi-auto and I carried a S&W 4506. Next was a Colt Combat Commander in .45 ACP. After that was a S&W Sigma in .40 S&W. Next it was a Glock 22C with night sights (.40 S&W). Last was a Glock 17 in 9MM.
The Colt Combat Commander empty, weighed the same as the Glock #17 with a full magazine. I love revolvers and still shoot them frequently. The Colt Combat Commander was my favorite to shoot but appreciated the reduced weight of the plastic handguns. Most Law Enforcement agencies aren't willing to spend the time and money to keep their people proficient with a single action semi-auto. I apologize in advance for the long winded rant.

[Bigslug]

9mm's hold lots of bullets without massive grips, unlike the .45.

9mm's don't wear out guns with undue speed, unlike the .40.

Most folks can reload a 9mm faster than a revolver.

The non-shooters can learn to shoot them passably without flinching.

They cost less to feed than "starts with a 4", or throws grainage above 200.

The terminal ballistics problem has been effectively solved - bigger isn't really enough better to offset the other perks.

The current rage seems to be offering a "NEW!" package to put it in, but I predict the Glock system with it's bombproof finish, easy serviceability, ease of use, and reasonable cost will outlast most of them. It - chambered in 9mm - really is the new 1911 in that regard, and it will probably have similar longevity.

[W.R.Buchanan]

I read the FBI report about that is why the FBI went back to the 9mm from the 40 S&W. I read it on a Law Enforcement blog. To many female agents had trouble qualifying with the 40. That at least is not a myth.

It's not a myth but it is an indication that their training is not all that. I have been to more than a dozen Pistol classes at Front Sight. When I started in 2006 nobody shot a 9MM. They all shot .40's in Glock 22's. I have seen way too many women outshoot me at that time with those guns and the reason why was better training from the start. They were taught a solid grip from the start and then sight alignment and trigger control in that order and they succeeded It is training that is far superior to the vast majority of Police Departments out there including the FBI which is supposed toe be the Ne Plus Ultra of firearms training. Seen too many cops in these classes that couldn't shoot worth a hoot.

Sure a 9MM in the same Pistol is easier to shoot but the fact that you have 2-3 more rounds on board is not going to save you when you have to make a shot, and can't do it because you can't shoot in the first place. They can't shoot under pressure becuase they haven't been trained under pressure. They can't even draw and hit a target under time pressure at 3,5,7,10,15 yards let alone farther. And making a head shot beyond 7 yards is out of the question. Please don't take that Hostage shot!!!

Lots has been said about the 9MM being superior because of better ammo and specifically bullets. However they always fail to realize that the ammo companies did the same things to .40 S&W and .45 ACP ammo as well and with handguns rounds, bigger is always better!

One or two well placed .40's or .45's is always better than 5 poorly placed 9mm's

And as far as "fight stoppers" go, every Police Cruiser in existence has a 12 ga. shotgun in it, but if the recoil of a .40 is too much then a shotgun is definitely going to be a problem.

I watched a Shotgun Qualification for "Coasties" at my range last summer and there wasn't one person who could run a pump action shotgun with any degree of proficiency! They had virtually no training and I got more in my first 2 Day Shotgun Class at Front Sight! Yet they still "qualified?" And they also got the snot beat out of them shooting 3"Mag Buckshot. The women got hurt big time so they are permanently scared of shotguns' now and when they have to board a ship where the occupants are armed and dangerous they will be at a serious disadvantage, and too scared to even pull the trigger..

What really makes me puke is the actual "Root Cause" (don't you just hate that term now?) for swallowing the 9MM pill. The Ammo is cheaper!

So theoretically they can train more. Except that doesn't seem to happen, and since they are fielding an inferior weapon with less stopping power, more of them will get killed in the end. Like to see the FBI Stats for that comparison. Officer Deaths while carrying 9MM vs .40 S&W. and # of shots fired per Kill.

A perfect example of what I'm talking about in "lack of training," was the Woman Cop with 27 years on the force, that got so caught up in the heat of the moment that she drew her Glock instead of her Taser and killed that kid while screaming Taser, taser, taser. She got convicted of 1st and 2nd Degree Manslaughter today and will be going to jail soon. Her lack of training was so obvious it was pathetic, and yet her Department probably "Thought" that she was trained very well? The operative word being "THOUGHT!!!" Cuz they didn't know either!

What really makes me puke is the actual "Root Cause" (don't you just hate that term now?) for swallowing the 9MM pill.

The Ammo is cheaper! Period!!!

My .02

Randy

[jonp]

...and too scared to even pull the trigger..

Adrenalin eats recoil

[762 shooter]

Carried and competed with a 1911 45 ACP for many years.

One day I had two of my pistols on the bench in front of me.

Colt 1911 7+1 and a Glock 43X 15+1.

I said, "Self, which one would would you give your opponent in a gunfight?"

People always say that no one ever wishes they had a smaller caliber in an altercation.

I can guarantee you that no one on this planet has ever said that they wish they had less ammo.

Given the current state of excellent bullet tech, a 9mm is not much different than an 11.5mm.

[Tazman1602]

I've lived through 3 different 9mm fads, crazes or whatever with the 40 short and weak thrown in since the 50's. I still prefer the 45 ACP......in a M1911 format.

^^^^^^^^^ THIS all day long for me.

Art

[Thumbcocker]

In the civilian realm at least, the fact is that the market is saturated. Anyone who really wants a gun has at least one. Guns are durable goods. They last a long time. Few guns are ever worn out.

So how do gun makers sell more guns? By convincing the buying public that their perfectly serviceable gun is no longer good. A fixed sight .38 special revolver is vastly inferior to a fixed sight polymer frame 9mm firing a cartridge that, for all practical purposes, is a ballastic twin to the .38 special. Go ahead and pick nits if you like, I am speaking generally here.

The buyer must be convinced that there is something wrong with the gun that they already have in order for more guns to be sold in a sodden market.

[Tokarev]

So how do gun makers sell more guns? By convincing the buying public that their perfectly serviceable gun is no longer good.

Or by teaming up with the government for a gun ban/confiscation/forced capacity modification with a subsequent lifting of that ban.

[dverna]

What LEO's carry is of limited consideration for me. The reasons I have gone away from the .45 and .40 to the 9mm:

1. I want one caliber that both I and my fiancé can shoot effectively
2. I am getting older and that is not preventable
3. I prefer a semi-auto for self defense

I shoot the 9mm well. Scored "Distinguished" on the four day Handgun course at Frontsight the first time (3% success rate IIRC). I shoot the .40 well too, but the 9mm recoils less and many of the drills are easier with less recoil so I put a 9mm barrel in the G22 for the course...plus had to use factory ammunition at Frontsight and 9mm was cheaper.

It was after that course that I decided to keep the 9mm barrel in the G22. Part of it was confidence. I shot well under a bit of stress. But the advance in ammunition was important too. I use Gold Dots for carry and they seem to test well.

I have a buddy who will be buying my last two .45 Kimbers when he gets the money. Nice guns but they do not have a use any longer.

[Texas by God]

Regardless of what the police do; I'm glad that the .40 came along- I finally have an 8 shot 38-40 that fits in my back pocket- it just looks like a Shield 40[emoji16]

Sent from my SM-A716U using Tapatalk

[Noah Zark]

I see an eventual shift to phased plasma rifles in the 40 watt range.

Noah

[Gray Fox]

It doesn't help that in the defund the police environment and even legitimate budget crunches the first thing bean counters cut is ammo costs and range training time. Many, if not most, small to medium sized departments no longer have their own ranges. Many have been closed because of housing encroachment and OSHA/EPA regulations. Want to shut down a range, just build a school next to it. They must rent local indoor range time if that is available. GF

[Bigslug]

In the civilian realm at least, the fact is that the market is saturated. Anyone who really wants a gun has at least one. Guns are durable goods. They last a long time. Few guns are ever worn out.

So how do gun makers sell more guns? By convincing the buying public that their perfectly serviceable gun is no longer good. A fixed sight .38 special revolver is vastly inferior to a fixed sight polymer frame 9mm firing a cartridge that, for all practical purposes, is a ballastic twin to the .38 special. Go ahead and pick nits if you like, I am speaking generally here.

The buyer must be convinced that there is something wrong with the gun that they already have in order for more guns to be sold in a sodden market.

:goodpost:

Yep. . .

The INITIAL transition from revolvers to 9mm's in the '80's made sense - - EXCEPT for the fact we were running on this flawed notion that light-for-caliber, high-speed, rapidly-expanding projectiles that didn't penetrate worth a damn was a good idea. . .

A lot of agencies and private individuals were running nearly brand new 9mm's - to the point of saturation and a sagging market.

Ironically, the terminal effect problems of the old 9mm's were pretty much solved by the time what I have come to call the ".40 Swindle & Whitewash" gained it's traction. More than a couple of gun manufacturers are guilty of working to convince us we needed replacement guns, when all we really needed was replacement ammo. Since they were going to sell ammo anyway, those manufacturers had no qualms about being complicit.

It took about 25 years for the big players to recognize that in the switch to .40, they had been "sold a bridge". The tunnel that a modern 9mm duty load makes in gelatin looks almost EXACTLY like the one you'll get with a .44 round ball out of a Colt 1860 Army - what worked then, works now.

Since the overwhelming consensus seems to be that the 9mm cartridge is a tool that works, the current Kool Aid seems to be adapting the ergonomics of the 1911 to the round, while boosting the capacity with a double stack mag.

The poster child for this current trend is the Staccato, which will likely have all of the advantages and disadvantages hugely expensive, hand-fitted, match-tuned 1911's are known for. Give it a few years, and others will take the basic concept and make it less Ferrari and more Humvee -- hopefully cheaper and more readily field-repaired.

[Jbiker]

I was kind of thinking that the way thing's are going , standard equipment ,( for your local LEO'S ) will soon be the good old (illegal in MASS ) wrist rocket with .50 cal lead balls !!!! don't know for sure , but thing's seem to really be going into the ****ter on all side's !!! LOL

[shooting on a shoestring]

Wrist rocket and 50 cal lead balls…ummm that still sounds pretty wicked!
I’m pretty sure I could hold off a dozen looters with a wrist rocket and a bag of marbles.

[johnsonian09]

I shoot 50 cal round balls with my slingshot. Not a wrist rocket. Just my own handmade slingshot. Made from wood. And bands from Amazon. Shoots straight thru 3/4inch ply at 5 yards or so...works great on backyard cottontail up to large racoons. a wrist rocket can definitely do better.

I read an article some time ago that Mexican police kept selling their guns to gangsters awhile back and so they started issuing wrist rockets and marbles. i imagine once you get proficient you can go thru a skull or two on a man.

While I love my revolvers they are beauty pieces and woods guns. I carry a sig in 9mm most days. Because capacity vs multiple 2 legged varmints prowling town at night.

I think police are going to carry whatever gives the best capacity for multiple targets.

Like that new..thing?
I think its a keltec- a p90 pistol with a compact 50rd mag. Police dont conceal carry so a big gun like that for the capacity, shooting rifle bullets... Hmm ugly imho but could be effective? Never jumped down that rabbit hole tho.

Sent from my SM-J337VPP using Tapatalk

[waylonrocks]

The scale of economy favors the 9mm to such a degree that nothing else even comes close. As has been stated, it is the gold standard for a host of practical reasons. So many people have one in their possession now that I doubt that the pendulum will ever swing away from it unless people use some new technology other than a firearm. Humans are always searching for a better way to kill one another....

[Forrest r]

Between the low cost and ease of use, the 9mm isn't going anywhere soon.

When the military adopts something else, the private sector will take notice. This is when things would change.

[Bigslug]

Another consideration for why the 9mm will stick around is that it's now getting loaded into compacts that are not a lot bigger than many .380's - and they're locked breech guns that deliver less bite to the hand than those old blowbacks. It's not going to TOTALLY displace the smallest pocket rockets, but it's already taking a big chunk out of that segment. For example, unless you're in one of those caliber-restricting countries that doesn't allow ownership of military cartridges, who in their right mind would choose a Beretta 84/Browning BDA over a Glock 43X/48 or Sig P365?

The other angle I'm looking at it from:

293601
293602

If you take the non-expanding path - as I did with this wheelweight 135gr. NOE/Ranch Dog - it has the ability to penetrate A LOT. This was nine milk jugs with a launch speed of 1030 fps, and it technically delivered more penetration than my 230 grain LBT .45, which stayed in the ninth jug, but didn't do the cute, poke-through-the-back trick.:lol: I set up the same shot with a 147 grain FMJ - the nine jugs I had didn't stop it. So, with the change of a magazine, it goes from urban "social worker" to a credible defense against large creatures on four legs.

9mm seems to be morphing into something like a handgun version of the .30-06: for the things you need a handgun for, it can do a great many of them passably well if you load it right. When we thought it was all about foot-pounds, the .357 Magnum - with it's .38 downgrade option - held the versatility title. With that concept generally out and a desire for capacity generally in, I'm not so sure that will hold.

[shooting on a shoestring]

So I see there’s a bunch of folks that think the 9mm will always be in vogue for the reasons I put forth in the first post. It’s cheap, easy to shoot and you can get lots of them in a pistol.

But…those reasons were present the last time the pendulum swung away from 9mm. And those reasons will be present when the pendulum swings away from 9mm again. They are are good compelling reasons and have been for over a hundred years.

I’m pretty sure it was sometime in the late 60’s when I first heard the line “…but with modern bullet technology the (insert whatever caliber was being shown to the prospective buyer) is much better than it used to be, so that’s plenty powerful now days.” I say the late 60’s because that’s when Dad started letting me go to gun shops with him. So…I’m going to bet that line will stay in use as long as people are trying to sell guns. It seems to work.

I own 9mm pistols, have carried them and will in the future regardless of what’s in or out of vogue. But same can be said for all the other calibers I own and carry. 9mm is good. It’s hot right now but it’ll cool off again when the next hot thing comes along. I also think that next hot thing will be driven by politics or planned obsolescence rather than it being discovered that 9mm is a bad cartridge.

[shooting on a shoestring]

Shout out to Metricmonkeywrench in post #14 and Jbiker post #67.
Y’all might be on target.

Larry Gibson post #5…Amen.

[charlie b]

Still interesting that the more popular semi-auto rounds were developed and fielded over 100yrs ago :) All those 'fancy' magnums are the 'new kids'. :)

I still have a 9 and a .45. The 9 is what I keep in the car, with 3 mags. The .45 is technically the wife's pistol so it is in the house most of the time.

We do have a .357. It is my plinking gun. Fun to shoot at all power levels and I don't have to chase brass around :)

So, I kinda agree with shoestring, '....that next hot thing will be driven by politics or planned obsolescence rather than it being discovered that 9mm is a bad cartridge.'

PS I still remember talking to a Brit SAS soldier about the effectiveness of the 9mm. He said it never failed him. But, he still kept his Sykes Fairbairn knife at the bedside. Silent and lethal. :)

[rbuck351]

Modern ammo has improved the performance of the 9mm to make it an adequate man stopper. Modern ammo has also improved the 45acp to change it from an adequate man stopper to a really good man stopper.

I use four different loads in my Ballister Molina 45 acp. 1. most used is my light load of a 230gr TC at 860fps 2. is my bunny hunting load of that bullet at 920 fps 3. is a 205gr swc at 1050 fps in case I need speed more that weight. 4. is Gold Dots for legal reasons if forced to use it for self defense.

I don't mind the recoil of the 45 acp and it costs me very little more to load 45 than 9mm. My wife shoots one of her two 9mms. I believe one shot the most potent round they can shoot well.

[blueeyephil]

I agree with most that it will take a political decision to push 9mm out of the lime light. If military catridiges were banned, I'd expect the 40 S&W to be popular again. 9mm has too many things going for it. Not much in the way of down side. No, not as powerful as 40 S&W or 45 ACP, but effectiveness is too close to really worry about. And you get the capacity bonus in an easy to handle platform. If restricted to 10 rounds and no hollow point, I'd probably pick a 45, but in a free state, 9mm is good.

My wife used to carry an 80's Charter Arms 32 H&R snubby but I finally converted her to a S&W M&P Shield EZ in 9mm. However for folks that want to carry a snubby, I'll recommend a 327 Federal. It holds 6 rounds and can be downloaded to 32 HR Mag or 32 Long. I have a Ruger LCR and carry it on the farm a lot with 32 H&R rounds. But would use the 327 for social situations. It's a dream to carry in a IWB holster. A bit better than my S&W Shield in 9mm. I've carried both but that LCR is an easier carry.

For recoil sensitive ladies and older folk I think the 32 H&R is a good choice. About the same performance as a 380 ACP, but less recoil comparing a 380 LCP to a LCR with 32 H&R. Too bad the 32 H&R is not popular and the ammo so hard to find.

But if you want an auto, 9mm for the forseeable future for most.

Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk

[Bigslug]

So I see there’s a bunch of folks that think the 9mm will always be in vogue for the reasons I put forth in the first post. It’s cheap, easy to shoot and you can get lots of them in a pistol.

But…those reasons were present the last time the pendulum swung away from 9mm. And those reasons will be present when the pendulum swings away from 9mm again. They are are good compelling reasons and have been for over a hundred years.


What I think is different now. . .

The 10mm to .40 "process" bit the FBI squarely on the ass, but the result was some hard looking at the differences between what actually worked in the field and what didn't, followed by a repeatable process (the gel testing protocols) that allows replication and refinement of the stuff that worked. Considering the places we've been in the past - like seeing how far a cadaver on a hook would swing when shot - we've got more well-considered science applied to the matter now than we ever have - and it currently points pretty firmly at the 9mm as the way forward.

The requirement to hack people up in battle arguably reached its technological peak with the Japanese swords of the 1600's, and it took some pretty significant advances in firearms to take them off the field. Much like with swords, we've had about a thousand years to study and refine firearms, terminal ballistics, and small arms training and tactics. I think that the 9x19mm, coupled with a bullet chosen for the task at hand is getting close to that katana level of hard-to-displace refinement.

On this thread, we've seen the notions of marketing ("The Customer is Often an IDIOTIC MONKEY Swayed by Shiny Objects"), and planned obsolescence ("We'd rather make ourselves look good by buying cheap now, get ourselves promoted, and leave replacement for the next poor slob than do it right") put forth. If we want to know how that's going to swing the pendulum, we have to first ask (#1), What is the 9x19 NOT doing for us?, and (#2) What is the valid counter-argument?

Given all the permutations of things that have been tried (many of them functional duplicates), the next revolution is probably going to take something that doesn't currently exist.

[tazman]

You bring up a good question by asking "What is the current 9mm not doing that we need done?"
I would like to see that addressed in this thread.

[jonp]

In the civilian realm at least, the fact is that the market is saturated. Anyone who really wants a gun has at least one. Guns are durable goods. They last a long time. Few guns are ever worn out.

So how do gun makers sell more guns? By convincing the buying public that their perfectly serviceable gun is no longer good. A fixed sight .38 special revolver is vastly inferior to a fixed sight polymer frame 9mm firing a cartridge that, for all practical purposes, is a ballastic twin to the .38 special. Go ahead and pick nits if you like, I am speaking generally here.

The buyer must be convinced that there is something wrong with the gun that they already have in order for more guns to be sold in a sodden market.


I see an eventual shift to phased plasma rifles in the 40 watt range.

Noah

Only what you see, pal

[bisleyfan41]

The 9mm isn't going anywhere ever, not until guns are no longer using brass cased, self contained cartridges. No other chambering will replace it. The 10 tried and failed. The 40 tried and failed.. the 357 sig tried and failed. Glocks ain't going anywhere either....ever. They just aren't. Logistics, effectiveness, universal popularity and acceptance worldwide.

My choice in an auto is the 1911 45 and prefer revolvers above them. But I'm not a cop or a soldier. I have Glocks and 9s, just don’t prefer them. However, I know they work well and have clarity in the reality the 9 ain't going nowhere.

[Bigslug]

You bring up a good question by asking "What is the current 9mm not doing that we need done?"
I would like to see that addressed in this thread.

About all I can honestly see is that:

1. It's not a true long range round, but if that's really in the cards, most bring a rifle. I can kinda see a need for something that can be concealed AND has reach if you're tasked to be the covert security at an outdoor gathering. In that regard, a toasty .357 or 10mm might trump a 9mm's capacity and rate of fire, but this is likely to be a specialized auxiliary role, because at the "kissing distances" handguns are usually deployed at, the 9mm answers the questions better - - and the .357 or equivalent still presents the problem of "many folks won't be able to shoot it well".

2. If you're fighting other nation states and their players are wearing body armor, the PDW rounds like the 5.7x28 - or even the old KTW - start making sense over ANY of the traditional "lump o' lead" handgun rounds. Thing is, the U.S. hasn't entered a declared war in 80 years, and the Hague Convention only applies if the quarrel is between signatories. My info may be a couple years out of date, but it appeared that the U.S. had decided 147 grain 9mm HP's were perfectly legal to use against terrorism-practicing NGO's. One could also argue that if you're close enough to the fight that the need to punch armor is likely, carrying a 5.56mm M4 Carbine is not that big of a burden.

3. It isn't a mover of kinetic targets. This is a gamer point, but if the game is to move a bowling pin off a table or dislodge a steel plate from its hangers, then mass and momentum (rather than penetrating to the spine and organ-filled center of the Tootsie Pop) start to matter again. The question here is this: If it is becoming widely accepted that "knockdown power" is no longer a valid concept by which to measure handgun effectiveness, then how long are games based on knocking bits of junk down going to persist if they no longer present an attachment to what is understood as reality?

4. Hunting niches. While 9mm non-expander can penetrate a lot, if you're trying to break the opposite shoulder of an elk, the .44's and .454's are still better.

And really all any of that does is keep certain other things from going extinct, but it doesn't "swing the pendulum" away from the 9mm at all.

[HumptyDumpty]

My copy of Cartridges Of The World is filled with all manner of very interesting rounds, many of which still linger on with some of us more eccentric handloaders. With modern propellants, projectiles, and properly designed firearms, I think there are quite a few that would far outperform 9mm and it's contemporary competitors, without generating prohibitive levels of recoil. Penetration of barriers and body-armor, without sacrificing terminal performance in soft tissue and bone, is something that most common handguns struggle with, and I think a solution does already exist; somebody just needs to sit down and look at what has already been designed, pick a round, and develop a gun around it. A specific example is my 45 Super. I currently have it outfitted with a flat-bottomed firing pin stop, and the 460 Rowland V2 Recoil Damper, permitting the use of a standard 16-pound reaction spring. Felt recoil and most importantly to me, muzzle-flip, is comparable to 45 ACP+P. The difference is that I am sending a 120 grain Lehigh Defense Extreme Defender downrange at 1600 FPS. That round recently blew a half-inch hole in one side of a propane tank, and dented the other side. Retained weight was 116 Grains. I strongly suspect that this would go through a soft vest. If not, something with a better ballistic coefficient might. I've also extracted some promising ballistics from 7.62 Tokarev, and will be experimenting with 400 CorBon in a CCO 1911 soon, in an effort to reach some very specific performance parameters. I'm not saying any of these rounds is a contender for dethroning the 9mm, just that there is a great deal of untapped potential in the dustbins of cartridge history.

[Jtarm]

I think the Heinie Nine is here to stay.

[Jtarm]

I can't speak for anyone else, but for myself I would much prefer shooting .32sw longs in a revolver compared to 9mm in a semi auto. But that is just me, YMMV.

With the exception of stuff like full-house magnums out of an M&P 340, I’d rather shoot just about any revolver than any semi-auto.

Nothing against bottom feeders, they’re just not my thing.

[35remington]

I took a guess based in a similar fashion why the military dabbled in PDW’s over pistols…..they wanted some improved penetrative capabilities with controllability and improved wounding effects over a pistol round.

If and when the 9mm is replaced my guess is it will take that form and no I don’t think the 5.7 is it. More speed than it produces from a pistol length barrel is needed. Don’t know if we can get there but making a pistol more like a small caliber high velocity rifle would be the obvious thing except for current physical barriers.

And no. I don’t believe things stay the same. Human nature wants change whether they need it or not.

[Cosmic_Charlie]

I'm just fine carrying the nine though I often tote a model 60 in a shoulder rig. I don't see the 9 being replaced either.

[Daekar]

I don't see 9mm going anywhere. It just does the job well enough. I prefer .380, personally, but that's not going to suddenly replace its bigger brother.

If the military adopts a high velocity round like the 22TCM or 5.7 or that sub-5mm round that H&K was pushing, I can see the market shifting a bit, but those would be brutal in CCW guns, I think.

[JimB..]

Apparently some hope it’ll be 30 Super

[FergusonTO35]

I could see revolvers coming back on a limited scale, especially in light of bad press created by spray and pray incidents. A seven shot .357 with a load tailored to strike a neat balance between power and easy to shoot would be an ideal choice.

[Tokarev]

9x21 and 9x23 make a lot of sense. Too bad not many manufacturers are willing to experiment with them.

[megasupermagnum]

I could see revolvers coming back on a limited scale, especially in light of bad press created by spray and pray incidents. A seven shot .357 with a load tailored to strike a neat balance between power and easy to shoot would be an ideal choice.

The biggest detriment to revolvers at this point is tradition. Anytime someone tries to innovate with a revolver, the shooting community cries out about how ugly it is, or how unnecessary. Personally I think Ruger is heading the right direction with the LCR. People today want modularity. A revolver with a tool-less removable firing control group would be the way to go. Along with that, I'd like to see more revolvers with removable barrels, which would definitely give a leg up over semi-autos in that you could choose a 2", 4", 6", or longer barrel with nothing else effected. Revolvers already handle neglect perfectly, but they don't handle abuse like a semi-auto will. I think a system to rotate the cylinder that wasn't so exposed would help tremendously. Finally, I think a revolver with the barrel on the bottom of the frame, and a vent rib on top like a Chiappa Rhino, although not so cartoonish, would be a good thing. There's always been a debate over bore axis, well a revolver like that blows even the lowest semi-auto out of the water. Maybe it's just my wishful thinking, but I think 327 federal is the perfect duty round for a revolver, and it's performance is about centered between 9mm luger, and 357 magnum. I think something SP101 or K frame size, that holds 7 rounds would be a great choice. You could probably get 8 rounds in a GP100 size gun.

[mcdaniel.mac]

Duty revolvers aren't coming back. Go watch a police range and see how they shoot with a 9mm, a heavier trigger isn't going to help anything, not will more recoil.

IMO "revolvers are simpler" is a myth. A semiautomatic is an engine, a revolver is a clock, and they both have complex moving parts and wear patterns. The "my grandpappy was shooting this here wheelgun for 50 years without a failure" is typically a story told about a gun that is shot less than a box per month over those years, and never hard. Revolvers have exposed critical areas that can allow objects to interfere with the cylinder operation, and whereas when an auto fails it's usually "tap rack bang" a revolver had two failure modes: pull the trigger again, or throw it because it's not firing until it gets to a gunsmith.

Ah, but inexperienced shooters! Yeah give em a 12lb trigger pull and tell me they do better. Reloading? Shoving rounds in a cylinder even with a speed loader is slower and clumsier than a magazine change until you get to expert levels of practice. Maintenance? See above. Aiming is the same. Recoil, usually stiffer in a wheelgun, or you're downloading to 9mm levels again. There's two things a wheelgun does that an auto doesn't: you can more easily cheat yourself by loading light practice rounds and ensure you're unprepared for real recoil, and you can cock the hammer for nice slow aimed shots. Problem being, if you manually cock the hammer under stress, now you have to decock it under stress. For an unexperienced shooter, that's an ND waiting to happen. The only upside is how quickly you can unload and clear a revolver, one motion instead of remembering to drop the magazine first and then clear the chamber.

I have high hopes for the .30 super carry, I like the math for it. It won't solve our police problems though, those come from bad training and bad mindset ("war on the streets, go kill bad guys") not from having 15 in the gun instead of 6.

For new shooters, they're gonna be safer with something like an S&W Shield EZ every time. Fewer bad habits to learn, easier to shoot.

[Bigslug]

This .30 Super Carry is slinging down some interesting marketing: "Almost 9mm performance, with two more rounds to solve the problem that you couldn't solve with a gun that already held TEN OR MORE".

This seems like they're trying to create a need in people's minds that does not currently/actually exist. If it's not the dumbest thing to be introduced in years, it's certainly being introduced at the dumbest possible time - due to both the current ascendance of the 9mm's popularity, and the current shortage of ammo for everything.

[ddixie884]

What he said............

Like

[rintinglen]

This .30 Super Carry is slinging down some interesting marketing: "Almost 9mm performance, with two more rounds to solve the problem that you couldn't solve with a gun that already held TEN OR MORE".

This seems like they're trying to create a need in people's minds that does not currently/actually exist. If it's not the dumbest thing to be introduced in years, it's certainly being introduced at the dumbest possible time - due to both the current ascendance of the 9mm's popularity, and the current shortage of ammo for everything.

I absolutely concur. This is 9mm federal rides again, a cartridge designed for a niche so small that there is no room for it to stand. 7.62 x 25 light.

[Oyeboten]

The .32 ACP, .380 ACP, and 9 mm P-'08, and .45 ACP have held up well these last 114 to 122 or so Years.

As has .38 Special these last 124 years...

[Tazman1602]

.45 ACP………because shooting twice is silly…..

Art

[Fernando]

.45 ACP………because shooting twice is silly…..

Art

:drinks: Exactly

[gwpercle]

.45 ACP………because shooting twice is silly…..

Art

Art ... Lets Drink to that ! :drinks:
Gary

[Tokarev]

The .32 ACP, .380 ACP, and 9 mm P-'08, and .45 ACP have held up well these last 114 to 122 or so Years.

As has .38 Special these last 124 years...

Over those years, the average height has increased, and the average weight has nearly doubled. These calibers may no longer have the necessary stopping power. They do kill but not nearly as effective as when they had been developed.

[Ithaca Gunner]

All personal likes/dislikes aside, they're probably going to stay with a 9mm size handgun, regardless of actual caliber or cartridge. Who knows, it might be the .22 TCM or something similar.

[bisleyfan41]

Over those years, the average height has increased, and the average weight has nearly doubled. These calibers may no longer have the necessary stopping power. They do kill but not nearly as effective as when they had been developed.

So the 9 and 45 (let alone the others) no longer have the necessary stopping power???? Not nearly as effective?????? Um.....OK

[reddog81]

Over those years, the average height has increased, and the average weight has nearly doubled. These calibers may no longer have the necessary stopping power. They do kill but not nearly as effective as when they had been developed.

Yeah, but how much of that extra weight is extra fat? A 175# bricklayer is a more formidable opponent than 250# video game player. I'd wager the current ammo selection does a better job stopping people compared to the ammo selection and population 100 years ago.

[Tokarev]

So the 9 and 45 (let alone the others) no longer have the necessary stopping power???? Not nearly as effective?????? Um.....OK

32acp, 380acp and 38spcl had been sufficient 100 years ago. Now, they are barely adequate against a 250lb opponent on meth.

[Daekar]

32acp, 380acp and 38spcl had been sufficient 100 years ago. Now, they are barely adequate against a 250lb opponent on meth.

To be fair, even 44mag is barely adequate in that application if your criteria is an immediate stop. Those cartridges are still very capable in most circumstances.

[megasupermagnum]

32acp, 380acp and 38spcl had been sufficient 100 years ago. Now, they are barely adequate against a 250lb opponent on meth.

They are just as adequate, it's just that someone on a drug like meth or PCP doesn't feel things the same way. I'd argue a 32 acp is going to be MORE effective against such a person than a 500 S&W magnum. The only surefire way to stop them is a spine or head/neck hit. That's why a shotgun and #2 buck sits next to my bed, not a handgun.

[tazman]

Over those years, the average height has increased, and the average weight has nearly doubled. These calibers may no longer have the necessary stopping power. They do kill but not nearly as effective as when they had been developed.

Yes, the average size of people has increased and there are things like drugs in their system to consider.

By the same token, ammunition that is currently available is far better than it was back then also. The new hollow points are a far superior round than the old lead or full metal jacket bullets these guns were originally fed.
I think the better preforming ammunition has kept them just as capable as they were way back when.

[Oyeboten]

Over those years, the average height has increased, and the average weight has nearly doubled. These calibers may no longer have the necessary stopping power. They do kill but not nearly as effective as when they had been developed.

"...have held up well" was in reference to their continuous popularity since their initial debut.


I was not making any claims or comparisons about "Stopping Power".

[dverna]

Stay away from the Golden Corral, I see a lot of huge people going in those places.

[FergusonTO35]

Stay away from the Golden Corral, I see a lot of huge people going in those places.

Truer words never spoken.

[fn1889m]

One nice consequence of the initial shift to 9 mm semi autos for police departments, and among the general public, is that it put a lot of really nice Smith and Wesson revolvers into the used market at very good prices. I bought a Smith and Wesson Model 27 (5 inch!), a Model 66, and a Model 686, for about $250 apiece in the early 90s.