2021 US Firearm Sales ?

[Bmi48219]

I was wondering if there was any data on the quantities of various types of firearms purchased in 2020. Did a quick search with no answers. In fact the actual total number of firearms purchased varies from one article to another. Some say 23 million in 2020, some as high as 40 million.
But I did find this info on 2021, which states in the month of March 4.7 million firearms were purchased, just in March. Incidentally, Illinois lead the pack with 1,427,197 purchases, just in March.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/gun-sales-reach-record-4-7-million-here-s-every-state-ranked/ar-BB1fjBfO

Another point they made was: since 1998 there were 310 Million NICBCS applications file with about 1.5 million denials.
My thoughts are, if half of the 310 million checks were for USED firearms, that leaves 155 million more NEW firearms owned than were not in private hands prior to 1998. I’m winging it on this but I would have thought there had to be more than 200 million firearms in private hands prior to 1998.
Then again 308.5 million approved checks would seem to indicate 308.5 million firearm sales. Add those to whatever number of firearms were in private hands prior to 1998 and I’d think total US firearms would be in the 500 million range instead of the 430 million you see bouncing around in the statistics.
I guess it’s another rabbit hole. One things for sure. Those 4.7 million firearms purchased in March 2021 need to be fed. If each one needs 100 rounds the total ammo required for March 2021 sales is 470 Million rounds.
I think we’ll be waiting a while for primers.

[JRLesan]

NICS checks don't necessarily correspond to NEW gun sales...

[Bmi48219]

NICS checks don't necessarily correspond to NEW gun sales...
Yes and I assumed as much when I estimated that:
“if half of the 310 million checks were for USED firearms, that leaves 155 million more NEW firearms owned than were not in private hands prior to 1998”.

Where I’m heading is when people that have never owned a firearm purchase one (as reportedly 5 million people did last year) they will naturally purchase ammo to go with it.
So 5 million times 100 rounds each equals another 500,000,000 rounds coming out of the available supply.
If we knew the type & caliber of the firearms purchased over any given period we could better predict what cartridges would be in the shortest supply for the foreseeable future.

[Handloader109]

2021 isn't over. One or more of the industry magazines publish prior year sales by manufacturer a few months after the end of the year, I think March or April issue.
You won't find accurate data on 2021 till next year.
Sorry, your title is misleading. You can find 2020 data. I tossed that issue but I'll see if I can find anything online.

[nvbirdman]

Another thing to consider, in many states (my state up until about a year ago) a private sale did not require an NICS check.

[Bmi48219]

You won't find accurate data on 2021 till next year. Sorry, your title is misleading.

I don’t see the title, “2021 US Firearm Sales ?” as misleading. I am asking / commenting on 2021 firearms sales.
The linked article in post #1 was in part about the 4.7 million firearms recorded sold in March 2021. They stated:
“This makes it among the largest single month since sales figures started to be recorded in 1998.”
Although they don’t reference the source of that number, in other parts of the article they mention the NICS going into effect in 1998, and the FBI keeps track of NICS data. I therefore assume the FBI was their source. I would guess the FBI figure is accurate for permitted buyers since they track NICS applications and 4473’s. And yes, I realize person-to-person sales in states not requiring a background check will raise the 4.7 million number.
Anyone who has looked at a FBI / DOJ-UC Report knows these guys are big on slicing and dicing statistics. Their violent crime and homicide reports characterize victims and criminals by race, gender, age, shoe size and type / class of weapon.
With all the NICS applications & 4473’s on one database it should only require a keystroke to definitively state how many AR-15s, AKs, etc were 4473’d in March 2021.
We know the DOJ, FBI & BATF aren’t Pro 2A. With every socialist politician and lobbyist in the country foaming at the mouth to ban assault weapons you would think CNN, MSNBC etc would have a “FBI Assault Rifles Sold Today” odometer whirling away in the corner of the tv screen. What better way than a pending crime wave to justify hiring more FBI & BATF agents?
For myself, I’d just like to know how many billions of rounds more-or-less, the guys at Vista and Winchester have to make before they can start selling primers again.

[JRLesan]

4473's are retained by the dealer and only type of weapon (handgun, long gun, other) is transmitted to a NIC's examiner so a keystroke isn't going to work, Thank God...

[JSnover]

You asked for data for 2020 but the thread title was "2021"
When you couldn't find 2020, you went into 2021 which is incomplete since the year itself is incomplete.
Wait for the spring of 2022, you'll be able to find what you need for '21

[Bmi48219]

You asked for data for 2020 but the thread title was "2021"
21

Sorry, to clarify: the first sentence of original post (“ I was wondering if there was any data on the quantities of various types of firearms purchased in 2020) was meant to explain how/why I found the attached link. My intention was to fix a quantity of firearms purchased over a set period of time and use that figure to try to arrive at how national ammo requirements were affecting primer supplies. In the post text I noted the published disparities of total 2020 sales, implying that in the absence of a firm number, ammo and therefore primer demand would be impossible to quantify for 2020.
The attached link provides somewhat credible data for sales in early 2021 upon which I could / did guesstimate ammo/primer demand for that period of time.
The post title (2021 US Firearm Sales ?) would have made more sense had I left out all references to 2020 sales. Or titled the thread ‘Primer Availability Based Ammo Demands Resulting from 2021 US Firearm Sales’.
I apologize for the confusion.

[Handloader109]

I was not trying to disparage you. Just simply stating the title said 2021, and I read it as 2021 data. But anywho, I only found real 2019 data which actually showed a reduction from 2018 in total sales. Nics checks are an indication, but not real numbers. You can buy one, none or a dozen with one check. I've transferred multiple on one check and for that matter, there are thousands that require NO check in states where Concealed carry license allows it. So nics is really just an indicator. And right now for 2021, I think sales are going down. I see more guns available at distributor level and inventory is going back up. But that may be those manufacturers are just making more right now....
But none of this matters as far as primers are concerned.

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