Just a little data

[Petrol & Powder]

The U.S. population is over 328 MILLION people. The U.S.A. is the 3rd most populous nation in the world. (only falling behind India and China).

No one really knows how many firearms are in private hands in the U.S.A. but one of the more credible research papers put the number at over 393 million guns in 2018. This is still only a best guess. We can look at the number of guns manufactured domestically plus the number of guns imported since 1968. We then add those numbers to what was believed to be in circulation before that, and come up with a baseline. It's not perfect but it's a start.

http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf

Since 2018, that number has been added to considerably. Manufacturing and importation alone is in the millions for the years after that study.
The sales of new guns in 2020 broke ALL records.

So when people start talking about bizarre conspiracy theories concerning ammunition and component shortages, take a moment to think about how big the numbers: 328 Million and 393 Million really are.

[rbuck351]

If everyone that thought they didn't have enough ammo for the long haul went out and bought a couple of boxes for those 400 million or so guns, it doesn't surprise me there is a ammo and component shortage.

Bidumb has surpassed Obummer by a good margin as being the worlds top gun and ammo salesman. The puppet master has spoken and Bidumb is marching to his orders.

[Burnt Fingers]

Those numbers are LOW. We've been told for 30 years there's over 300 million firearms in the US, they are correct, but the number is much higher than 300 million.

I'll hazard a guess and say close to HALF A BILLION firearms in the US.

[Petrol & Powder]

You'll get no argument from me that the estimate of 393 Million guns in the U.S., in 2018 may have been a little on the low side.

As for the current estimate, I doubt that it is a a half a billion (500 million) but I don't think a figure in the low 400's would be too far off.

[Land Owner]

Consider (strictly academic):

1.) 50% of the population (164M) have a gun: 164 million guns in the U.S.
2.) 5% of Conservatives (8.2M) have 10 guns: 82 million additional guns
3.) 0.5% of Conservatives (820T) have 50 guns: 41 million additional guns
4.) 0.05% of Conservatives (82T) have 200 guns: 16.4 million additional guns
5.) 0.005% of Conservatives (8.2T) have 500 guns: 4.1M additional guns
6.) 0.0005% of Conservatives (820) have 1000 guns: 0.820M additional guns
7.) Guns in Museums not considered: 0.0M additional guns
8.) 1 in 1,000 for Liberal gun owners in categories 2 thru 6 : 0.144M additional guns

Conclude that (academically and conservatively) there are OVER 308.5 Million guns in the hands of the We The People.

[Burnt Fingers]

Consider (strictly academic):

1.) 50% of the population (164M) have a gun: 164 million guns in the U.S.
2.) 5% of Conservatives (8.2M) have 10 guns: 82 million additional guns
3.) 0.5% of Conservatives (820T) have 50 guns: 41 million additional guns
4.) 0.05% of Conservatives (82T) have 200 guns: 16.4 million additional guns
5.) 0.005% of Conservatives (8.2T) have 500 guns: 4.1M additional guns
6.) 0.0005% of Conservatives (820) have 1000 guns: 0.820M additional guns
7.) Guns in Museums not considered: 0.0M additional guns
8.) 1 in 1,000 for Liberal gun owners in categories 2 thru 6 : 0.144M additional guns

Conclude that (academically and conservatively) there are OVER 308.5 Million guns in the hands of the We The People.

Ya failed basic math.

You're not removing the initial values from your equation.

IE: 1.) would be an additional 73 million guns since you already counted their first gun. It gets worse with each point you attempt to make.

[gwpercle]

I am getting the impression the wall is going to get built ... but not on the USA/Mexico Border .
The troops haven't left and the FBI warns of a "Credible Threat" of attack ... the troops will remain .
Too many guns and too much ammo out there for them to feel safe ?
Gary

[Petrol & Powder]

Let's keep this on track.

There are a LOT of guns in America. Probably in excess of 393 MILLION guns.

There are a LOT of people in America. Clearly in excess of 328 MILLION people (the 3rd most populous nation on the planet).

The demand for loaded ammunition, components, firearms is correspondingly high.

There's no need for bizarre conspiracy theories to explain shortages, the demand has simply outstripped the supply.

If in late 2019 you told someone that there would be a toilet paper shortage in the spring of 2020, they would have looked at you like you had three heads. But there WAS a toilet paper shortage in 2020. Not because we ran out of trees. Not because the government was buying up all the toilet paper. Not because the paper mills intentionally reduced production for some crazy illogical reason. But because people panicked and purchased EVERY single roll of toilet paper they could find.
That shortage was caused by consumers and consumers ALONE.

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

[Land Owner]

Ya failed basic math.

You're not removing the initial values from your equation.

IE: 1.) would be an additional 73 million guns since you already counted their first gun. It gets worse with each point you attempt to make.

Your disappointment, in your assertion, is telling.

[Burnt Fingers]

Your disappointment, in your assertion, is telling.

Disappointment in the failure to understand basic math.

[10x]

The number of firearms possessed by members of the public in the USA has more than doubled since 1975
The homicide rate /100,000 in the USA is apparently dropping correlated to rising median age
The overall homicide rate in the USA has been dropping since 1975.

k

[Land Owner]

Disappointment in the failure to understand basic math.

I have to agree....you do NOT understand basic math.

[white eagle]

Those numbers are LOW. We've been told for 30 years there's over 300 million firearms in the US, they are correct, but the number is much higher than 300 million.

I'll hazard a guess and say close to HALF A BILLION firearms in the US.

Who owns only 1 gun?

[MUSTANG]

Who owns only 1 gun?


My wife's college friend who ordered an S&W revolver about 6 months ago and received it end of Jan. Lot's of new one gun owners who are concerned about the Large City Riots and it's violence spreading int their neighborhoods (not to mention the low lifespan's invading homes).

[Burnt Fingers]

I have to agree....you do NOT understand basic math.

Yeah, I understand basic math just fine.


Let's make it REALLY easy.

We have three people.

Joe, Larry and Bob each own one gun
Bob owns two guns
Larry owns three guns

This is the math used in post #5. You're adding up each line.

Line 1 = 3 guns
Line 2 = 4 guns
Line 3 = 3 guns
Total = 10 guns.

In reality it's

Larry owns three guns
Bob owns two guns
Joe owns one gun.

Line 1 = 3 guns
Line 2 = 2 guns
Line 3 = 1 gun.

You can't count something in a subset that's been previously counted in a super set.

The more subsets you add the further you get from the truth.

Let's take five people. a, b, c, d, and e.

a-e own one gun each 5 guns
b-e own two guns each 8 guns
c-e own four guns each 12 guns
d and e each own eight guns each 16 guns
e owns 16 guns

You then added each line and come up with 57 guns.

In reality

a owns 1
b owns 2
c owns 4
d owns 8
e owns 16

Which equals 31 guns.

The written language and math don't always play nice together.

Consider (strictly academic):

1.) 50% of the population (164M) have a gun: 164 million guns in the U.S.
2.) 5% of Conservatives (8.2M) have 10 guns: 82 million additional guns
3.) 0.5% of Conservatives (820T) have 50 guns: 41 million additional guns
4.) 0.05% of Conservatives (82T) have 200 guns: 16.4 million additional guns
5.) 0.005% of Conservatives (8.2T) have 500 guns: 4.1M additional guns
6.) 0.0005% of Conservatives (820) have 1000 guns: 0.820M additional guns
7.) Guns in Museums not considered: 0.0M additional guns
8.) 1 in 1,000 for Liberal gun owners in categories 2 thru 6 : 0.144M additional guns

Conclude that (academically and conservatively) there are OVER 308.5 Million guns in the hands of the We The People.

Let's break this down.

820 people have 1000 guns 820,000 guns
8,200-820 = 7,380 people have 500 guns 3,690,000 guns
82,000-8200 = 73,800 people have 200 guns 14,760,000 guns
820,000-82,000 = 738,000 people have 50 guns 36,900,000 guns
8,200,000-820,000 = 7,380,000 have 10 guns 73,800,000 guns
164,000,000 - 8,200,00 = 155,800,000 have one gun 155,800,000 guns

Total 285,770,000 guns.

If you had added additional to each sentence your math would be correct.

[toallmy]

Now I'm confused , and have a headache . I took off my shoes + got out a piece of paper and a pencil after some figuring I came to the conclusion everyone is just guessing .

[.45Cole]

So if I sign up for this "820T Conservatives" thing I'll get 50 guns? Asking for a friend. Oh, he just asked where the signup is.

[Land Owner]

Yeah, I understand basic math just fine.

Give it a rest Mate.

[Burnt Fingers]

Give it a rest Mate.

Why?

You can't refute the math you used????

[Petrol & Powder]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/us-handgun-long-gun-imports-surge-60-in-2020

[abunaitoo]

Any idea how many new ammo manufacturer since 1968????
Any idea how many there are now????

[Petrol & Powder]

Any idea how many new ammo manufacturer since 1968????
Any idea how many there are now????

No, but the collapse of the Soviet Union did open up new import sources.

The U.S. population in 1968 was 205.8 million. It's over 328 Million now.

There are a lot of variables at play. Larger population, a LOT of guns and ammo being manufactured domestically, a LOT of guns being imported, same true for ammunition, a huge surge in demand (absolutely unprecedented, we've never seen guns sales like this before).