Message from federal,CCI and Speer

[Digger]

Caught this a minute ago from the company ...
Link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIgvoJKovIg

[Rizzo]

Thanks for the link.
Merry Christmas.

[HP9MM]

Thank you for the video!

[Petrol & Powder]

http://castboolits.gunloads.com/showthread.php?414768-A-Message-From-Federal-CCI-Speer-And-Remington-President-Jason-Vanderbrink-On-Ammo

[TonyR]

I saw this too and wondered.

With it being a trend for ammo demand to go up during election years, do manufacturers not prepare for this and increase production or are they really at full capacity when it comes to production?

I’m in my late 20s and was in the military for most of Obama’s term, but did this same thing happen when he took office? Or even Clinton?

Makes me glad that I’m getting into reloading and casting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[quilbilly]

I saw this too and wondered.

With it being a trend for ammo demand to go up during election years, do manufacturers not prepare for this and increase production or are they really at full capacity when it comes to production?

I’m in my late 20s and was in the military for most of Obama’s term, but did this same thing happen when he took office? Or even Clinton?

Makes me glad that I’m getting into reloading and casting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
In a word, yes.

[Wally]

Wouldn't it have been a better and a more honest video, if they admitted they blew it yet again; greatly underestimated the demand for ammuntion and that they should have learned from previous shortages when O'Bama was coronated? And offered an apology to the millions of customers they have failed to serve due to their oversight with a promise to never let it ever happen again......I know, I am dreaming! The top managment should all resign out of shame

[Scrounge]

Wouldn't it have been a better and a more honest video, if they admitted they blew it yet again; greatly underestimated the demand for ammuntion and that they should have learned from previous shortages when O'Bama was coronated? And offered an apology to the millions of customers they have failed to serve due to their oversight with a promise to never let it ever happen again......I know, I am dreaming! The top managment should all resign out of shame

I'm thinking they deserve a pass on this, since about half of our economy shut down completely. I worked for an industrial laundry, got a letter showing I was essential personnel on March 31st, and terminated on April 3rd, along with most of my shift, since there wasn't enough business to keep us going. No restaurants, no machine shops, no mechanics, no oil fields operating. Even though firearms and ammo manufacturers were considered essential businesses, they have to have material and support to keep working. If all the machine shops are closed, and the mechanical contractors, how are they supposed to keep their equipment running? What are they supposed to run though the machines to make ammo, and components with? I know we were having trouble getting hydraulic fluid, and parts, for example. If you don't have what you need, you cannot keep running. It's real simple.

[Petrol & Powder]

Wouldn't it have been a better and a more honest video, if they admitted they blew it yet again; greatly underestimated the demand for ammuntion and that they should have learned from previous shortages when O'Bama was coronated? And offered an apology to the millions of customers they have failed to serve due to their oversight with a promise to never let it ever happen again......I know, I am dreaming! The top managment should all resign out of shame

What did they do wrong?

They didn't CAUSE the shortage, panic buying by fearful consumers created the shortage.

And by the way, corporations don't exist to "serve" their customers. Corporations (or any form of business) exist to..... make money.

It would be grossly irresponsible to the shareholders to fund huge factories that later sit idle. It would be unwise to purchase excess land, buildings, machinery and pay taxes on it while it sits idle. It would be fiscally irresponsible to hire large work forces only to lay them off 6 months or a year later.
You cannot pour millions upon millions of dollars into capital improvements for a short term demand.

Let's say you make a product that has a steady demand. You and your competitors routinely meet that demand and have some excess capacity to make even more than you normally can sell.
Then one day, panic buying drives the normal demand far beyond the average demand, exceeding even your wildest projections.
Do you pour millions upon millions of dollars into additional factories, machinery and people to meet a temporary demand that will dry up in a year? Do you saddle your shareholders with crushing debt that you will never be able to pay when the demand evaporates ?


For decades the manufacturing capacity for toilet paper was far larger than it needed to be. Then suddenly everyone panicked and purchased every roll of toilet paper in the country. We know what the demand for toilet normally is and for decades, we met that demand. It would be foolish to lay out enormous amounts of capital to meet a short term demand.

There will be ammunition and ammunition components available in the future just like there is toilet paper back on the shelves. Everyone just needs to take a deep breath.

[Finster101]

Wally, I agree with you they should have seen this coming with lessons from recent history. I am unhappy with the way he actually seems to be angry about it.

Scrounge, I'm a dealership tech and we never shut down. Neither did our parts stores or uniform company. About the only people Florida considered "non-essential" were barbers, hair and nail salons and of course restaurants and bars.

[reddog81]

It’s kind of ironic how everyone thinks Federal should have seen this coming but at the same time they’re complaining because they can’t find supplies. If it was so obvious why didn’t you stock up ahead of time?

[Gewehr-Guy]

No , this current shortage is not the fault of the manufacturers, it lays all on the fault of the end user. If they were already a shooter, they should have already bought when the market prices were screaming to them to buy the excess inventory. The $8.00 a box 9mm ammo had to be nearing the price point where production would slow down, and eventually stop. Same thing when primers were $20 after the rebates.

That tells me that the dealers have all the supply they can afford, and have room to store, same for the distributors also. The manufacturer's main job is to manufacture, not store a four year supply so they can clean out the warehouse during an election year. I believe the consumer needs to realize that he has some responsibility in keeping the supply chain flowing smoothly, just as much as the manufacturer, distributor and the dealer. Remember also that all these business's can't store unlimited inventory because of cost, insurance,regulations and available space, so some of those issues fall on the end user.

[megasupermagnum]

Wally, I agree with you they should have seen this coming with lessons from recent history. I am unhappy with the way he actually seems to be angry about it.

Scrounge, I'm a dealership tech and we never shut down. Neither did our parts stores or uniform company. About the only people Florida considered "non-essential" were barbers, hair and nail salons and of course restaurants and bars.

How would you like it if you woke up every day to hundreds of messages from people on this forum telling you what a fool you are for having not invested $2000 into reloading? Then realize doing such would have no poor consequence to you if no surge had happened this year. Federal on the other hand could loose dearly if the surge they banked on did not pan out. His job is to direct the company to where they want to be business wise. He has no obligation to shooters to guarantee a perfect supply no matter what. I'm sure he wants Federal to make more ammo and components, to capitalize on the current situation. He is just a person, and he is being bombarded with hate mail, likely even death threats. That is enough to frustrate anybody.

[Scrounge]

Wally, I agree with you they should have seen this coming with lessons from recent history. I am unhappy with the way he actually seems to be angry about it.

Scrounge, I'm a dealership tech and we never shut down. Neither did our parts stores or uniform company. About the only people Florida considered "non-essential" were barbers, hair and nail salons and of course restaurants and bars.

I'm in the middle of the Oil Patch in Oklahoma, and just about everyone shut down here. Last couple of days I worked we washed out before the end of the shift. NO laundry left. We were averaging over 30,000lbs of laundry a day just a few days before that. There's usually 5K pound of laundry left at the end of my shift, just before the next "day" starts. 5-10 loads, usually. The machines hold a nominal 450lbs of laundry, but you're not supposed to mix types of fabric. Cotton shirts don't get washed with cotton-poly shirts, for example, so you'd do two separate loads. One of the energy companies we laundered for terminated every one of their worker, and left us with several hundred sets of uniforms in FR clothing. 7 shirts, & 7 pants per person. They actually let the production folks get some OT to get that lot ready, IIRC. Us maintenance guys didn't get overtime this past year or so, because of me. I got about $10K of OT in early to mid 2019, since we had two of our techs quit within a month of one another, and were having trouble finding replacements. Left me and the supervisor to do all the maintenance, and cover 3 shifts until late summer. Just got the maintenance shop fully manned again, and everyone trained, and BOOM! Wandered by late in May, and there are four techs and a waste water guy, two shifts, and two buildings to cover. One of the techs is doubling for supervisor, too. We'd had five techs, WW, and the supervisor, who spent a lot of his time doing maintenance. Those guys that are left are busy as a 1-legged man in a butt kicking contest. I'm glad I decided to retire, though it would have been nice to plan it before I walked out the door. Competition for jobs is fierce around here, and I could afford to retire. Bunch of my co-workers couldn't.

[FISH4BUGS]

Wouldn't it have been a better and a more honest video, if they admitted they blew it yet again; greatly underestimated the demand for ammuntion and that they should have learned from previous shortages when O'Bama was coronated? And offered an apology to the millions of customers they have failed to serve due to their oversight with a promise to never let it ever happen again......I know, I am dreaming! The top managment should all resign out of shame

Maybe you should try running a manufacturing business some day. Sudden increases in demand for the end product causes demands on raw materials, and the whole thing stresses the entire supply chain.
Maybe you can forecast demand better than they can? Send them your resume'.

[FISH4BUGS]

It’s kind of ironic how everyone thinks Federal should have seen this coming but at the same time they’re complaining because they can’t find supplies. If it was so obvious why didn’t you stock up ahead of time?

Some learned our lesson the LAST time this happened. :)

[tinsnips]

Fish4Bugs I agree with you it is very hard to estimate demand. I have been doing it on a small bases for years it does not get any easier

[country gent]

Trying to guess the market swings is pretty hard to do. Do you increase production and warehouse storage in case, and end up having more expensive ammo ( overtime, rush orders increased maintenance) left to pay taxes on at the end of the year? Do you actually increase production by adding lines and personnel possibly buildings, to have have excess and lay offs if it dies off? Work with what you have pushing equipment and personnel to the limits risking major break downs and injuries ( when overtime goes up for extended periods so do injuries). I di believe that the ammo companies are doing what they can as best they can. No manufacturer wants to have unfilled sales in the stores and dealerships. Nor in this day can thy have large stocks of products sitting.

Now heres the kicker when theres ammo on the shelves and everyones happy no one thinks abut it or notices, but when its gone its the companies, government, or shops fault.

Increasing production isnt just turning the speed up on a line. Its also the testing of materials before use quality control before during and after production. Increase in shipping, whats good having product on the docks warehouse if you cant move it. Also on the other end is what good is ordering more materials if you cant get it t the plants or in them? There are lead times on everything from the taw materials to when it goes thru the lines and then getting it to the shops.

When they started taxing the materials on hand and in warehouses the companies went to JIT manufacturing ( just in time) which was meant to put items on the shelves as the customer wanted it. This has became JTL ( Just to late) manufacturing. All of this was implemented by the bean counters and share holders.

[am44mag]

This happens every 4 years. That's not a secret. If you aren't prepared when the election rolls around, then it's nobody's fault but your own.

[davidheart]

The shocker is a sitting president not being re-elected. I think that's how this mess was exasperated. It's been decades since a sitting president was not re-elected so in there defense not many of us expected this...

Also, yes this happened when Obama was president quite regularly.

[kevin c]

I thought most if not all the current shortages were happening well before November, and the same, as least for guns and shooting supplies, in prior years?

Lots of unexpected weird stuff last year, above and beyond what might be anticipated with the elections.

[monadnock#5]

"The best defense is a good offense." Ageless truth.

[Finster101]

To me this shortage is different. It would seem just based on the increased gun sales alone manufacturing should have been increased. Based on what I saw locally none of our shops have had an over abundance of supplies for some time. I haven't seen shelves completely full for a couple of years. I know the demand didn't just suddenly start in November.

[john.k]

Actually ,the demand did start quite suddenly......without going into the contentious details,riots,burning ,and calls to defund the police in various cities,'skeered a lotta people' who maybe never held a gun before ....I read that by Novemeber,US gunsales were up 72%,obviously be more for the whole year......It doesnt take a great increase in sales to cause shortages,if the increase is sustained......Then you have hoarding and profiteering ....and dont tell me there is no profiteering going on ,not to mention market manipulation.

[Brassmonkey]

Back in 2018 S&B claimed to produce 3 million rounds a day. 60% going to civilian market 40 to police and military 90% exported. That's over a billion rounds a year, sounds like a lot but spread around it's pretty thin.

[reddog81]

To me this shortage is different. It would seem just based on the increased gun sales alone manufacturing should have been increased. Based on what I saw locally none of our shops have had an over abundance of supplies for some time. I haven't seen shelves completely full for a couple of years. I know the demand didn't just suddenly start in November.

All retail shelves were full during 2019. Prices started dropping 2017, continued dropping in 2018, and by 2019 I was getting regular emails on sales and rebates because retailers were having trouble moving anything. I stocked up Federal and Winchester primers in 2019 at $21 per thousand, 9mm under $10 per box for US made brass cases, 300 blackout brass, etc.

[Burnt Fingers]

Wouldn't it have been a better and a more honest video, if they admitted they blew it yet again; greatly underestimated the demand for ammuntion and that they should have learned from previous shortages when O'Bama was coronated? And offered an apology to the millions of customers they have failed to serve due to their oversight with a promise to never let it ever happen again......I know, I am dreaming! The top managment should all resign out of shame

The whole system is set up to have a 30-60 day supply in the system. Adding manufacturing capacity costs a LOT of money.

Let's take 22 LR. It takes 2-3 years to build a new facility and get the equipment. Then it takes about two years to train the employees. After that it takes 7-10 years to break even on the investment. At a minimum you're looking at 11 years before you make a penny.

No company wants to pay taxes on excess inventory.

How could any company see a RECORD year for gun sales. A year unprecedented in scope, all those new gun owners needed ammo. Add in the CCP virus closures and you have a perfect storm.

I'm guessing you've never owned or even really worked in the retail business.

[brewer12345]

The whole system is set up to have a 30-60 day supply in the system. Adding manufacturing capacity costs a LOT of money.

Let's take 22 LR. It takes 2-3 years to build a new facility and get the equipment. Then it takes about two years to train the employees. After that it takes 7-10 years to break even on the investment. At a minimum you're looking at 11 years before you make a penny.


That is the crux of the issue. Add in the fact that all of these manufacturers were severely hurting 2016-2019 just trying to break even and they had zero incentive or ability to add capacity heading into where we are now.

[reddog81]

That is the crux of the issue. Add in the fact that all of these manufacturers were severely hurting 2016-2019 just trying to break even and they had zero incentive or ability to add capacity heading into where we are now.

Yep, They would have bankrupted themselves adding capacity if demand had continued to drop. It's much easier for me to stock up on supplies than to expect manufacturers to ramp up production to meet the highest possible demand scenario.

[Wally]

That's what angered me...the fellow in the clip seemed angry that we were angry at them. Typical corporate flunky. I knew a year ago there'd be ammo & component shortages...I did stock up. I was hoping that this time there'd be no shortages. However it is now the worst shortage ever. I do get it...these conglomerates don't care about their customers....they care about profits. Sadly the company who produced the video bought up other competitors which has stifled competition. I believe this has made things worse.. Kind of amazes me that some are sympathetic with these corporations.. God help us! I wonder if they feel the same about Big Pharma?



Wally, I agree with you they should have seen this coming with lessons from recent history. I am unhappy with the way he actually seems to be angry about it.

Scrounge, I'm a dealership tech and we never shut down. Neither did our parts stores or uniform company. About the only people Florida considered "non-essential" were barbers, hair and nail salons and of course restaurants and bars.

[reddog81]

Pointing out the obvious has nothing to do with being sympathetic to conglomerates.

Anyone who "knew" this was going to happen should have emptied their bank account, 401K, IRA, took out HELOC loans against the equity on their house and bought all the primers you could have. Every $100K in primers would now be worth at least $1 million.

[snowwolfe]

Back in 2018 S&B claimed to produce 3 million rounds a day. 60% going to civilian market 40 to police and military 90% exported. That's over a billion rounds a year, sounds like a lot but spread around it's pretty thin.

40+60+90=190%

[Finster101]

As I stated in my earlier post, the shelves were seldom full here. I have stopped by my local Bass Pro when in the area and several times there were no small pistol primers. I would usually pick some up if there were. I think it could be somewhat regional. There aren't that many places near me that sell reloading supplies. I get most of my stuff online so I tend to buy in bulk.

[Wally]

I looked at that YT clip again featuring Federal's President Jason Vanderbrink.... As I noticed the first time I viewed it the manufacturing plant looks quite old & "tired". Seems the bean counters have done little to upgrade to a more modern operation....they are far more interested in buyouts and stifling their competition.

As for my investing in ammo and components to make a profit ....that's not something that I care to do, as I think it is unethical.

[Petrol & Powder]

I looked at that YT clip again featuring Federal's President Jason Vanderbrink.... As I noticed the first time I viewed it the manufacturing plant looks quite old & "tired". Seems the bean counters have done little to upgrade to a more modern operation....they are far more interested in buyouts and stifling their competition.

…....

".....Seems the bean counters have done little to upgrade to a more modern operation....." What their "bean counters" were doing was making a profit for their shareholders without incurring a huge debt for new shinny equipment in a Taj Mahal facility. Sorry it doesn't meet your expectations but I don't think they are worried about what the interior of their factory looks like.
And I bet their employees would prefer a steady paycheck over a pretty new facility and layoffs when the demand doesn't pay for all of that debt.

And there was no comment about "buyouts and stifling their competition", so I have NO idea where that comes from.

[megasupermagnum]

That's what angered me...the fellow in the clip seemed angry that we were angry at them. Typical corporate flunky. I knew a year ago there'd be ammo & component shortages...I did stock up. I was hoping that this time there'd be no shortages. However it is now the worst shortage ever. I do get it...these conglomerates don't care about their customers....they care about profits. Sadly the company who produced the video bought up other competitors which has stifled competition. I believe this has made things worse.. Kind of amazes me that some are sympathetic with these corporations.. God help us! I wonder if they feel the same about Big Pharma?

Oh, give me a break! I don't know the exact year I started reloading, sometime early in Bush Jr's presidency maybe 2003ish. in that time, there has been shortages of some kind every few years, usually election years. This 2020 shortage was worse than 2004 and 2016, but nowhere near 2008 or 2012. For goodness sakes, 2008 primers were gone, and a good supply didn't start coming back until 2015ish. Anyone remember the 22lr shortage, or are we that forgetful?

As it stands currently, common calibers like 9mm and 223 remington are very hard to come by. Other calibers are there. All local stores I've been to have had plenty of other non-nato calibers including 12 gauge. From what I can see, there is no shortage of rimfire at all, local stores have a normal amount of 22lr. Smokeless powder is out there. I don't have an entire wall to choose from, but there is a decent selection you shouldn't be hurting that bad. Yes, primers are currently unobtanium. I really doubt we are going to see an Obama style shortage. Primers have only been gone 7-8 months now. I see no reason we won't see supplies beginning to pick up already by summer.

Get used to it, there is going to be another shortage, and there always will be. From what I hear, this is no different than what happened during the Bill Clinton shortages.

[reddog81]

What their "bean counters" were doing was making a profit for their shareholders without incurring a huge debt for new shinny equipment in a Taj Mahal facility.

Apparently making money of selling ammo and components is unethical, so good luck having a rational argument with someone using that logic.

[brewer12345]

As for my investing in ammo and components to make a profit ....that's not something that I care to do, as I think it is unethical.

Just curious: why?

[Wally]

I am not greedy....

[Wally]

And there was no comment about "buyouts and stifling their competition", so I have NO idea where that comes from.

Vista Outdoors has bought out...Federal, CCI, & now Remington

[farmbif]

well at least the guy behind the counter at local Walmart now knows I aint crazy when I would buy up all the Winchester 555 boxes for $17 every time I would see them there starting about a year and half ago.

[Petrol & Powder]

And there was no comment about "buyouts and stifling their competition", so I have NO idea where that comes from.

Vista Outdoors has bought out...Federal, CCI, & now Remington



Let me get this right, when Remington goes bankrupt (from taking on too much debt) and Vista Outdoors acquires additional manufacturing capacity and employs people that would have lost their jobs - You perceive that as something wrong or greedy?

How dare they continue to operate those facilities, produce ammunition and employ those people.....
(and in case you miss the purple font, I was being sarcastic with that last line)

[FISH4BUGS]

I think the problem here is that some here got caught flat footed and component short.
THEY are p'od because they think they should be able to go to their LGS and buy whatever they need whenever they need it....planning be damned.
Probably the same group that has only three days worth of food in the house.
Remember the children's fable of the grasshopper and the ant? :)

[Petrol & Powder]

FISH4BUGS, you are correct. They are mad because they can't get what they want and it cannot possibly be their fault.

Somehow the manufacturer, not the consumer, must hold the blame.