first primers now powder all gone

[farmbif]

I guess I been asleep at the wheel.
I know what's been going on with primers, out of stock everywhere and scalpers on gun broker actually getting $250/1000
but just today realized there's no powder to be had either, none, all out of stock, powder Vally has only some alliant 50 available and a couple other super slow powders like some 8000, same story over at mid south and midway.
now I'm wondering just how much a pound of varget is worth to someone who just has to have some.
any thoughts on what things might be like after jan 20th.

[Dewey von]

I was on gunbroker looking at cap and ball revolvers and noticed reloading components being sold for outrageous prices. A 1 lb. can of Titegroup had been bidded up to $130.... really crazy.

[farmbif]

I think I just might have a bottle of titegroup, be more than happy to take $130 for it. might just be time to tidy up the reloading room.

[Uncle R.]

A month or so ago I picked up an 8 lb. jug of 4064 at a LGS because I was loading .30-06 cartridges for my boys to hunt deer with and my supply of that powder was kinda low. At that time he had NO primers of any type but still a modest selection of powders on his shelf.

His was the third shop I tried - the first two had no primers, very little powder, and no 4064 in stock.

I was looking at powder on-line just last night, trying to get a sense of where the market is heading. I found a couple of different fast "trap load" shotgun powders available at a couple of retailers. That was it. I didn't see any rifle powders in stock anywhere, or any powder that would be well suited to loading full-power "service" loads in 9mm or other pistols.

Everything I've seen over the past month or two indicates the shortage is getting wider and deeper. I'm more and more convinced that this ammo drought will be the worst yet - maybe since the 1940s.

And no, I wasn't around to see that one! My kids will tell you I'm old - but I ain't that old. :bigsmyl2:

I'm sure glad I found that jug of 4064 when I did. It's a very flexible powder, useful (if not ideal) in a wide range of cartridges. Eight pounds should keep my hunting rifles going for a long time.

A couple more points worth mentioning:

Shotshells for hunting - with 4, 5, or 6 shot for rabbits, squirrels, pheasant and the like - are getting pretty scarce. There may still be a few to be had in the stores but I don't expect that to last. Two or three boxes of high-brass #6 loads could keep a guy hunting for the pot for a long time.

Finally, last night in my internet searches I found j-words for rifles in about the same place powder was a month ago - picked-over and diminished stock but not completely gone. If you use j-words for any of your rifle loads you might want to think about that...

Uncle R.

[Yogi]

I held out to see about an 8lb. Jug of 4064, passing up the 1 lb jugs. Never got it and now wishing I had got the 1 lb jugs as now they too are gone. Lesson learned.

[Shawlerbrook]

It will get worse . Waiting to see what happens in Georgia and who Biden selects as AG.

[BJK]

This was all predictable, and yes, I expect it to get worse. It's happened before, except not with true lunatics maybe about to get into the Whitehouse. That will make it like nothing we've ever seen before. And it's been this way, though maybe not as bad as today, for quite some time. I lucked out due to timing more than anything else, and bought a LOT of powder a few months ago, primers before that. The powder wasn't easy to find but when I found it it wasn't in 1# cans but 8# at a time. It was more than I wanted to spend, but I sorta figured what was coming due to what I was seeing in my shopping. A few months before that it was black rifle components; anything low to medium end was gone and many high end components were as well.

I was wrong about one thing though. I told the folks at my LGS that "In a month those walls will be empty.". So far their suppliers have been able to keep up with the high volume sales that that tiny shop does. Not so ammo though, they were rationing it the last time I was there.

[reddog81]

I think I just might have a bottle of titegroup, be more than happy to take $130 for it. might just be time to tidy up the reloading room.

I've go an unopened 8 lbs jug and would be willing to let it go for the low price of $799.

[rbuck351]

I'm not at all surprised and not unprepared . I've been through several shortages and learned my lesson a long time ago.

[rockrat]

Think Brownells had H4350 and Varget last night. I am sure its all gone by now.

LGS has some powder. Surprised yesterday, they had one 1 lb container of 4759. $30. Still there.

[RogerDat]

No powder or no primers in stores and they sell for well over 5 or 6 times the retail price? Gee I wonder where the supply is going?

People are going to lurk to purchase supply as it becomes available on retail sites for the simple reason that the resale value is immensely profitable. That removal of retail supply makes it difficult for consumers to get supplies at "normal" prices which encourages them to pay the premium prices being charged at auction sites. If you walked into a store and saw limit two containers of any powder per day would you buy the couple of pounds you need? An eight pound jug and one pound of some other powder? Or two eight pound jugs of anything good?

We are the market, the supply is available at a finite rate, and the efficiency of just in time delivery removes the need for large stockpiles. Once the supply chain gets overwhelmed and available supply sucked off the shelves the supply won't keep up until we simply don't have room or money to buy more. I was going to buy a box of LRP to bring my inventory up a bit to recognize another LRP caliber was now being loaded for. I checked at a couple or three stores. When I saw the short supply at first store I am darn sure I would have bought two boxes not one if they didn't have a limit of 500.

It doesn't matter what causes the initial surge that overwhelms a supply element, once started it just has to run its course. A mass shooting, an election, a bill proposed in congress, a fire in a powder plant, or a pandemic sure to bring about the apocalypse. Once we start all going for the limited stock on hand.... it always ends the same way. Internet just insures we all hear the stories or shop at the same stores.

I recall after Sandy Hook watching the press I was looking at sell out from a dozen available while I double checked the model number to make sure it was the right one. You couldn't find a hand gun or 12 gauge pump shotgun when the pandemic hit in early spring. Our sport doesn't have the inventory to absorb a sudden increase in people all over thinking home defense and need to make own ammo because civilization is going to fall apart. Follow that with an upcoming election, follow that with a Democratic win.... Surprised primers aren't being sold individually the way AP 5.56 ammo was for a bit. Forget how much a stripper was going for at gun show but better than a buck a round.

Reminds me I want to help grandson pay off his student loan, think I will sell a box of 223 ammo, 300 loose primers, and a rusty old die :-) Pretty sure I can retire to someplace tropical with ocean breeze if I can just figure out where the heck I put those Lee wack-a-mole loaders. Oh wait I bought those for my own post apocalypse survival, how can I sell them? Maybe I could haul those MEC and Pacific presses in my Mad Max buggy!

:bigsmyl2:

[downzero]

Things will be back, it just takes a while to catch up. Stock up when you can and stack it deep and you'll never be out. I will be 80 before I run out of things to shoot, even if I don't have the materials to shoot exactly what I want.

[JonB_in_Glencoe]

I guess I been asleep at the wheel.
I know what's been going on with primers, out of stock everywhere and scalpers on gun broker actually getting $250/1000
but just today realized there's no powder to be had either, none, all out of stock, powder Vally has only some alliant 50 available and a couple other super slow powders like some 8000, same story over at mid south and midway.
now I'm wondering just how much a pound of varget is worth to someone who just has to have some.
any thoughts on what things might be like after jan 20th.

Varget was getting scarce (in my area) three months ago.
I went to a local gun Show in September, I usually have a table there, but didn't want one this year. One vendor (who I know) that usually only sells gun cleaning stuff, surprisingly had some "vintage" primers on his table for inflated prices, he also had 3 soda bottles with powder in them, hand written label said "Varget one pound $50". I looked at other vendors tables with powder and none of them had any Varget.

After Jan 20 ???
It'll be worse, Biden will likely announce his desire to Ban the scary black rifles. Have you looked at AR-15 clones lately? The lowest priced guns that were $399 in 2019 are now $700. When Biden starts talking about them, they'll be $1500 or more. A great investment ;)

[thxmrgarand]

My grandfather, a fellow who lived in three different centuries (I only knew him in two, and I came along with he was about 54) and was healthy in every way right to the last, had to pay $20 for a box of 30-30 ammo during WWII. He was hiring laborers right before WWII for $5 per day, but once WWII was under way wages quickly became confused and rose, as demand for labor began to markedly increase. (He was too old for WWII but logged a lot of yellow birch that went to Garand stocks as his grandson later logged yellow birch that went to a mill that made M14 stocks. Three of the old guy's sons carried Garands from France to Germany however.) It's my belief that reloading ammo was not very widely practiced until after WWII. If Biden appointments that touch on the Second Amendment issues go the way of recent appointments that will impact natural resources industries such as mining, forest management, and petroleum then we may well see people begin to hide their guns. We could also see some states parse themselves out as Second Amendment sanctuary states, and what is the new normal could devolve from there. The passing away of RBG, and subsequent replacement by the Trump Administration and the US Senate, could allow a Bill of Rights bridge to a better time. The two Senate races that conclude early next month are an important benchmark. This is all very new, and the future is always uncertain.

[dverna]

Just saw on GB, 5 lbs of Unique for $415 plus $45 shipping. Has 28 bids and 28 minutes left.

[No_1]

Just saw on GB, 5 lbs of Unique for $415 plus $45 shipping. Has 28 bids and 28 minutes left.

It’s getting crazy out there again. Hopefully y’all have been slowly storing away since the last time this happened and if you haven’t now is not the time to buy.

[Uncle R.]

<SNIP>
It doesn't matter what causes the initial surge that overwhelms a supply element, once started it just has to run its course. A mass shooting, an election, a bill proposed in congress, a fire in a powder plant, or a pandemic sure to bring about the apocalypse. Once we start all going for the limited stock on hand.... it always ends the same way. Internet just insures we all hear the stories or shop at the same stores.
<SNIP>


Exactly.
Well stated!

It's as predictable as sunrise.
If the supply chain is disrupted - by any cause or for any reason - people try to secure their future supply by stocking up. Demand increases, and the feedback loop that results insures the shortages will continue until everyone has all they can use, afford or store.

It's just human nature, and wishing or complaining won't change a thing.

The speculation and "price gouging" that inevitably result from shortages are a normal free market response to scarcity, and help to not only ensure that product remains available, but also to direct the supply to those who need it most.

Uncle R.

[GregLaROCHE]

Buy what you can when you can. Don’t let people be able to say “I told you so”, when there’s nothing available.

[perotter]

I was at a shop one day when ammo first started getting in short supply. A guy came in and ordered 128 lbs of the same powder. Likely more powder is being stockpiled than shot up in the last few months.

[David2011]

Some of us learned from previous shortages. I will count myself in that number.

[RogerDat]

I was at a shop one day when ammo first started getting in short supply. A guy came in and ordered 128 lbs of the same powder. Likely more powder is being stockpiled than shot up in the last few months.

This is exactly what I was talking about. He bought at retail very likely with the knowledge he could sell off any "surplus" for a healthy profit. Thus the other people showing up may find none in stock which will encourage them to scramble around and either buy extra due to the difficulty of securing what they needed for themselves buy more to resell the "extra".

Those of us who recall the gas shortages in the 70's know that you could only buy gas on odd dates if your license plate ended in an odd number, or even numbered dates if you had an even plate number. After the shortage some researchers realized that gasoline consumption based on miles driven went down not up and overall production and gasoline sales remained above a fairly static consumption BUT much of that production was in all the tanks getting topped off every other day or stored in our garage or trunk in gas cans. We thought there was a shortage so the we "over bought" and the amount of fuel available was plenty to meet demand it just wasn't at the gas station to be purchased. We by doing what was best for ourselves as individuals made our collective situation worse because of course with every gas station that sold out prices rose on the remaining supplies. Prompting more purchases because the "smart move" was to stockpile more since it was essential and in short supply.

Sound familiar?

[MUSTANG]

This is exactly what I was talking about. He bought at retail very likely with the knowledge he could sell off any "surplus" for a healthy profit. Thus the other people showing up may find none in stock which will encourage them to scramble around and either buy extra due to the difficulty of securing what they needed for themselves buy more to resell the "extra".

Those of us who recall the gas shortages in the 70's know that you could only buy gas on odd dates if your license plate ended in an odd number, or even numbered dates if you had an even plate number. After the shortage some researchers realized that gasoline consumption based on miles driven went down not up and overall production and gasoline sales remained above a fairly static consumption BUT much of that production was in all the tanks getting topped off every other day or stored in our garage or trunk in gas cans. We thought there was a shortage so the we "over bought" and the amount of fuel available was plenty to meet demand it just wasn't at the gas station to be purchased. We by doing what was best for ourselves as individuals made our collective situation worse because of course with every gas station that sold out prices rose on the remaining supplies. Prompting more purchases because the "smart move" was to stockpile more since it was essential and in short supply.

Sound familiar?

Analysis is partially correct. Prior to the gas shortage much of the population in the US kept a minimal amount of gasoline in their car tanks. This was driven by culture where cash was short (for some it was reality; never knew we were poor until I went into the USMC). Gas was cheap in Texas at the time, but it was still a significant amount of cash sitting in the car/pickup gas tank. We often would collect change from friends to put enough gas into a vehicle to go to the Drive In. Much of the population shifted their Gas Patterns after the Gas Lines; keeping more fuel in the Car/Pickup. This cultural shift resulted in permanent change for many; I still fill any vehicle that is down more than 1/4 from full. I also have 1000 Gallon Propane Tanks at the houses instead of 500 gallon propane tanks that are standard for the same reason.

I am betting that we will see this same trend occurs with ammunition and components when we come out of this shortage (If we do come out of the shortage, and do not instead see rise of an Authoritarian Government/attacks on the 2nd Amendment and buying and selling of Ammo & components etc..; or worse tremendous Social Strife).

[perotter]

This is exactly what I was talking about. He bought at retail very likely with the knowledge he could sell off any "surplus" for a healthy profit. Thus the other people showing up may find none in stock which will encourage them to scramble around and either buy extra due to the difficulty of securing what they needed for themselves buy more to resell the "extra".

Those of us who recall the gas shortages in the 70's know that you could only buy gas on odd dates if your license plate ended in an odd number, or even numbered dates if you had an even plate number. After the shortage some researchers realized that gasoline consumption based on miles driven went down not up and overall production and gasoline sales remained above a fairly static consumption BUT much of that production was in all the tanks getting topped off every other day or stored in our garage or trunk in gas cans. We thought there was a shortage so the we "over bought" and the amount of fuel available was plenty to meet demand it just wasn't at the gas station to be purchased. We by doing what was best for ourselves as individuals made our collective situation worse because of course with every gas station that sold out prices rose on the remaining supplies. Prompting more purchases because the "smart move" was to stockpile more since it was essential and in short supply.

Sound familiar?

Yup. When I overheard that happening, after a moment of 'wow' my next thought was I should 8 to 16 lbs of powder. But having a good personal stock and being able to DIY it, my calmer thoughts prevailed and didn't buy any.

But in a couple of previous weeks I happened to be in Fleet Farm when ammo came in. I did buy several boxes of 9mm in case a couple of young guys I know hadn't found any for their newly and first purchase of a pistol. As they had found some, I am still sitting on that.

At the time that gas shortage, I lived on the farm in an important ag area. So we had unlimited gasoline and diesel any time we wanted it. I don't think even the people who lived in the small towns there were on the odd/even plan.

[GregLaROCHE]

I don’t mean to imply we should start hoarding great quantities, but it makes sense to have a reserve and a healthy one at that. I buy most of my gun stuff online. Unless there is free shipping, I always add some powder or primers to the order, if available, to bring down the average cost of the shipping. With time I have built up a stock, so I don’t worry as much as some do about shortages. In the long term if laws and regulations change, then we’re all up the creek.

[bdicki]

Midway has powder.
https://www.midwayusa.com/smokeless-powder/br?cid=17586

[dverna]

Midway has powder.
https://www.midwayusa.com/smokeless-powder/br?cid=17586

Decent prices too!!! I would stock up if I needed anything. Even if you have no primers now, it makes sense to have powder on the shelf.

[trails4u]

Midway and a few others have consistently had powders throughout.... Maybe not everything you WANT, but I've seen enough to not be completely panicked about it.

ammoseek.com and other search sites like it are your friend...…...

[rbuck351]

I was in a LGS today that had quite a bit of powder on the shelf for the small store it is. I didn't take inventory of what powders they have but I remember a few. They have universal, bluedot, hp38, tightgroup and quite a few others including some rifle powders. I didn't check prices as I have no need for more powder. Just guessing but they must have 75 to 100lbs in stock. They have two flats of 50 bmg primers but very little ammo.

[TXGunNut]

My first “shortage” was probably 25 years ago, bought a .22 revolver so I could practice my PPC shooting during a primer “shortage“. Never again. I don’t have a huge stockpile but at this point I hope I live long enough to shoot it all up. Loaned a thousand primers to a friend and you’d think I’d given him a new pickup.

Mike

[bob208]

I have jest started to use primers from the chiton scare of the 90's .powder ihave been buying so much. at auctions . bp I have two unopened kegs.