Component Shortages

[Mike in MD]

Just wondering what the groups thoughts are on the component shortages. I've seen it happen about every 3 or 4 years here lately. This year is the worst so far. I saw a brick of 1000 S&B spp sell on Fleabay for over $300. When Covid hit, I saw people that I would bet were anti gun start buying guns. At first shotguns, but then any gun they could get.

Sorry got a little off track. Do we think primers will return any time soon? and at what price?

[trapper9260]

For what I seen and how things are I think it will take some time if they will be show up and as for price is like you seen now. That is how I think it will be now. Yes this is the worst I seen also.

[beechbum444]

You can sell primers on there ????

[farmbif]

seems some local independent gun shops around the country still have some supplies at normal prices, unfortunately it takes a lot of searching to find em.
someone reported yesterday gun show seller had primers at fairly reasonable price. ive got some Seller beloit primers I'd be more than happy to sell for $300/1000
it may take years once trump gets reelected for things to get back to normal. if for some oddball chance Biden gets elected there is no telling what might happen.
that primer sale on fleabay do you mean eBay or maybe gun broker , I would not think eBay would allow primers to be sold on their site.

[farmbif]

the crazy thing is, just a couple months ago before this shortage began you could get primers for $120-$150/5000, and some with rebates and stuff too, easily if you shopped around. this shortage sure did come on fast.

[Shawlerbrook]

I hope I am wrong, but if this election goes all D, I doubt if things will ever get back to normal. They will change the laws and regulations that will limit and tax things to the point that some will be impossible to buy in certain chains of commerce ( just study NYS and the SafeAct).

[jimlj]

I think the shortage is largely COVID related. Factories were shut down at the same time a buying frenzy started. I think election fears have a far smaller affect this time.
I hope it gets back to normal soon.

[kevin c]

I haven't seen $300/K, but on GB currently most auctions for SPP are closing over $100/K, and sometimes $150/K for the less common types like match primers or magnums. Like you said, that's three to six times the typical gun show and LGS prices of 8-9 months ago.

Panic buying, I think, with many folks initially concerned that CoVID is TEOTWAWKI, fears worsened by the riots, plus the typical election cycle buying "just in case".

The fear driven buying from first two will eventually die out. What happens with the shortages related to pre election buying depends on who wins and how.

[JimB..]

Dang, I just sold 5k, mix of SPP and LPP for $35/k locally to help someone out. Guess it’s time to stop that. If he flips them I’ll kick his ***.

Sure wish I could ship them, I’d be a seller for sure at $200/k

[Winger Ed.]

Supply will be back, but it'll take awhile.
The hoarding will continue making it take longer than normal.

Last time around when .22s dried up, and slowly came back onto the shelves- hoarding continued.

How many stories have we heard of when a small shipment came in, somebody bought them all.

There was a article in one of the gun comic books- the author and his buddy were in a store, and they'd just set
out a shelf full of .22s. His buddy bought 5K of them.
He told him, you haven't bought 5K .22s in your life, why do it now?
He only got a grumble for an answer, and now his buddy has more than a life time supply of .22s.

[Mike in MD]

Sorry I meant GB not EBAY. As far as shipping The seller listed shipping as actual cost. So i guess they could charge whatever they need to or want at that point. I thought about selling some but I don't have a hazmat license and no point in selling something I need if I'll need to replace them at a higher cost.

[monadnock#5]

At the same time as online, popular, high demand ammo zeroed out, the big online retailers started pushing reloading equipment. It's the perfect storm scenario. For all the laws, rules and regulations US manufacturers are saddled with, I'm looking to the Russians to get us out of this mess. And the election to go the right way.

[elmacgyver0]

If Trump wins, it was "panic buying".
If Biden wins, it was "reality buying".
All a matter of perspective.

[Greg S]

Same story every election cycle, just this time a dose of Civil thrown in for good measure. I saw it coming before OB was elected and a friend and I stocked up on powder and primers before they went stupid. Now I've got a nice cushion and buy once a year to replace what I've used and forsee using in the next year at good prices, not pa ic pricing. Buy it cheap and stack it deep.

I got caught short on .224 75 Amax's on OB's second election for shooting 223 long range. Had a stash of 77s and a friend send 200 80s HPBT match to try which flew better than the 77s in a 1-9 twist. Go figure...

[bakerjw]

I bought 10,000 SPP for $700.00. Not a bad deal for these times though.

[dverna]

I feel sorry for those who are too poor to plan ahead and prepare for tough times. I know one family like that, and I will insure they have ammunition to hunt and defend themselves with.

Those who take expensive vacations, drive new vehicles, or have a dozen or more weapons etc etc I have little compassion for. Choices have consequences.

But to answer the question, no one knows what will happen as there are too many unknowns. So far, every shortage has eventually ended and prices got back to acceptable levels. There is no assurance that will happen, but I believe it will. I am considering selling 100k primers at the local gun show if prices stay over $75/1000.

[brewer12345]

I expect things will be tight for a long time regardless of the election outcome. Lots of social unrest, uncertainty, millions of new gun owners, etc. and that is before we even consider that it is an election year. Primers in particular will be tough since the manufacturers would rather sell loaded ammo than components.

Powder still seems sort of available, aside from certain flavors. Watching an auction for 2 pounds of Varget. Last I looked the bidding was up to $100 plus $60 shipping with more than a week to go.

[JonB_in_Glencoe]

I was at a local gunshow yesterday.
I am low on CCI LPP. so I looked around, one dealer had them for $40/k, so I bought 1k.
another dealer had some vintage "staynless" Winchester LPP, $2 per 100, I bought all he had.
I also stumbled on seven square cans "half-pounders" of Alcan powder for $5 each...that was sweet :)
Four tables down, another dealer had a couple of the same half-pounders priced at $35 each :shock:
lastly, I did see some vendors trying to sell primers for $65 to $75 per 1k.

[M-Tecs]

Even if the election goes well its going to get worse before it get better for component.

Covid slowed the supply chain and Covid and the Riots increased demand greatly. That lead to the current shortages.

The second wave is starting to hit every sector not just firearms, ammo and components. Covid slowed the supple chains for everything and manufactures of almost any product are facing a raw material/supply shortages. A couple of notable exception like popcorn. No movies theaters so there is a 111 million pounds of unsold and unpopped corn.

[elmacgyver0]

If Biden wins and is true to his word you won't need any components.

[la5676]

If Biden wins and is true to his word you won't need any components.

Loaded ammo only, right.:-(

[tommag]

I haven't seen lube grooves advertised lately.

[kevin c]

Dverna, most folks can only wish they could sell 100K primers and still be comfortable with what's left over.

Interesting that, in my action shooting club with over a hundred regularly competing members and half again as many repeat customer but non member sign ups for our bimonthly matches, there are only two active casters. All of a sudden I've got a half dozen people asking if I'll show them how to cast, including one who has thought about enough to ask if I can provide him with alloy. Others have asked if I'll cast bullets they can buy from me. The answer to everything but the last was, "Sure".

[Chad5005]

its slim pickings around here,we'll still find a 1k or 2 primers here and there at pre gouging prices and powders arent bad here or online,i think best case weve got about 6 months and worst case couple years or the new prices of 150 bucks a thousand for primers and 75 a pound for powder

[samari46]

I went through my stash and found commercial hard cast bullets I didn't even know I had or forgot about. Which was a nice surprise. At this point in time wouldn't even think about selling any primers nor powder or components because who knows how long the prices now being quoted here would come down to affordable levels. Might be a long time. But will start casting up a bunch of bullets for my moisins since they are a lot of fun to shoot.. And my '06 as well as 30-30. And yes will have to get a few new molds. Which in and of itself isn't a bad thing. really wondering how well my Canadian Centennial rifle with the 26" long barrel will shoot with cast. I've shot it a few times with some Monarch 170 grain ammo and shot pretty good. Way less recoil than it's little brother the Canadian Centennial carbine with the 20" barrel. Frank

[bakerjw]

I just poked out to Midway to look at powder. Most of the common ones are available and Shooters World is running at good prices. Their HazMat fees aren't ridiculous ($12.00 last time I ordered) and free shipping. Tax is kind of a pain but my last order of 5# still came in at $25.00/pound.

Now the primer thing... Primers will not hit the reloading market again until the ammunition manufacturers get caught up with demand. Bullets are still whacky as can be too. But, that is how I found this place.

[Froogal]

I just poked out to Midway to look at powder. Most of the common ones are available and Shooters World is running at good prices. Their HazMat fees aren't ridiculous ($12.00 last time I ordered) and free shipping. Tax is kind of a pain but my last order of 5# still came in at $25.00/pound.

Now the primer thing... Primers will not hit the reloading market again until the ammunition manufacturers get caught up with demand. Bullets are still whacky as can be too. But, that is how I found this place.

I check Midway nearly everyday. The price of primers has NOT gone up, but other than some #11 caps and shotshell primers, there are NONE available.

[elmacgyver0]

I check Midway nearly everyday. The price of primers has NOT gone up, but other than some #11 caps and shotshell primers, there are NONE available.

Reminds me of the old saying:
"You can sell eggs for 5 cents a dozen all week long...as long as you don't have any eggs."

[JoeJames]

I reload small quantities of 32 S&W Long, 38 Special, 44 Special, and 308. I thought I was in good shape, and then thought I was almost out of Bullseye. I called my local gun shop thinking that perhaps Bullseye was not as sought after as regular rifle powder. No, they were plumb out of Bullseye, and none of their suppliers had it either. I was wrong on that theory. But I kept looking around in my storage and found a I did have a goodly supply of Bullseye. But it did bring home the scarcity many are faced with. After that I did a careful inventory of all powder I had on hand.

[bedbugbilly]

Let's see . . . giant increase in gun sales (any wonder???) . . . . Covid virus affecting production facilities . . . . . an "civil unrest" . . . . not to mention those that "hoard" . . all contribute to the situation.

Dust your flintlocks off boys . . . . . . . and keep your powder dry!

[dverna]

Dverna, most folks can only wish they could sell 100K primers and still be comfortable with what's left over.
.

LOL...being old helps a lot. I used to load 20k rounds a year so planned accordingly. Turned 70 recently and I have a lifetime supply. My son is a disappointment when it comes to reloading and politics. Offered to give him one of my Dillon 550's or 1050's but he did not want to reload, so sold both presses to members here. I enable him and load ammunition for him at no cost...so I am part of the "problem". He might get into reloading when I pass on...maybe not.

In any case, my risk is so low that taking a profit on 100k primers is attractive if I can triple my initial investment. My stock was $18-25/1000. IMHO, the only reason prices are high is due to demand. Material cost increases are not driving up prices. But demand is not infinite. Most people will be happy when they have 10-20k primers put away and stop buying. Then, I expect prices to come back down. When they get to $30/1000 I will stock back up and wait for the next cycle. The unknown is regulatory changes if Biden wins such as taxes on components, and/or banning of internet and/or cross state sales of components. But that adds value to what we have in inventory.

In fact, it is the only reason for me NOT to sell 100k primers. A 25% tax on primers would immediately increase their value over and above the current demand driver that has made prices ridiculous.

One last thought. Democrats will eventually control our government. It is not a mater of if, but when. Even with a pro 2nd amendment SCOTUS, the government will enact laws that impact our right to keep and bear arms. Taxing is a back door strategy to accomplish that goal. It is a win-win for them. More revenue for them, and an attack on our rights.