COVID-19 And what I know

[Teddy (punchie)]

First start by saying God Bless everyone.

First it a real killer, somewhere between 60 to 80 percent of people that are to the point they need help breathing are going to die.

40-60 percent of people are a-systematic. This means they will carry spread and not have any or much signs of the virus.

Somewhere around 20-40 percent will get sick and fight it at home.

Somewhere around 10-20 percent are going to get sick enough to need medical help. Of these are the people that will die. The people that go on breathing help are in trouble, numbers are all over the place but they are 50-80 percent are dying.

Treatments are out there, from plasma to anti inflammatory drugs for arthritis (medications) but this it still iffy and who is going to do what. All in who is caring for you.

Now to fact: 3-13-2020 I get a call dad is bad and maybe not going to make it. 82 years old (well is was 81 at the time) heart trouble, high blood pressure, sternum removed, stroke, and a whole list of other things. I get there he is laboring breathing 26 times a minute, blood oxygen is low, they have him on oxygen. He is starting to retain fluid, now he is heading down that congestive heart failure (one other thing he is fighting,illness). This is how the COVID-19 kills by wearing you down, how long can you fight breathing like that 20-30 times a minute.

Fact two Beaver Co. had no way to test my Dad. They didn't tell us this, they did say he tested for positive influenza A. COVID-19 test were not there for an other two to four days.

Fact three if you get sick, fight for your rights. They had my dad's records mixed and messed up. It was a miracle they didn't kill him.

Fact four his heart doctor call mom on Friday 4-24-2020 he had just got done fighting for his own life. After words he said he just doesn't understand how Ted is still here. He had it, systems matched his, within 12 hours or less after you start feeling bad (symptoms start) your in trouble. Breathing like your under stress and laboring to just breath. Temperature and the rest of the symptoms are for the 20-40 percent, that can fight it at home. But its a short time from I'm feeling kind of bad to I'm not doing good at all. Dad was fine 9:30 AM 3-13-2020 I called him, they had shut down visitors to nursing home he was in. 12:00 PM sister said dad was now complaining he was breathing fast and some coughing. By 4:30 he was in real trouble. This is just what the Heart Doctor Explained happened to him, within 4-6 hours he was in trouble. He just wanting to call and ask my mom what happened to Ted, as he was on the phone with her for a long time 20-30 minutes. Going over the records and was telling her that my dad had the COVID-19, its not the normal flu.

Be Safe, learn from this, and again God Bless !!

[dangitgriff]

Covid-19 mortality is comparable to the seasonal flu.
Covid-19 attacks the oxygen transferring efficiency of the air sacs in your lungs.
Ventilation of patients in critical condition from the effects of Covid-19 drives mortality up.
Low blood oxygen levels are an early indicator something is wrong. By the time Covid-19 positive people decide to go to the hospital presenting with flu-like symptoms, they are already critically ill.

R/Griff

[dtknowles]

Covid-19 mortality is comparable to the seasonal flu........

R/Griff

Who told you that and why would you repeat it without checking the data?

2018/19 USA flu season, 35 million symptomatic cases of the flu with 34 thousand deaths. For a whole year! Mortality rate is one death per thousand cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

So far in 2020 for COVID-19 in the USA not even a million confirmed cases and 55 thousand deaths. Mortality rate is 55 deaths per thousand cases.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=u.s.+covid-19+statistics&qs=SC&pq=u.s.+civud-19+&sk=SC4&sc=8-14&cvid=B7BADEE8255C4DD6B4A90C65A168F0FE&FORM=QBRE&sp=5&ghc=1

Lets just pretend that the number of Covid-19 cases are under reported by a factor of 10, COVID would still be 5 times deadlier than the Flu.

Tim

[rking22]

Hope you Dad pulls thru this. As of Friday noon, the CDC Certified deaths was 20,050. At the some time CNN was reporting 50,000. An RN is the one that pointed this out.

[dtknowles]

Hope you Dad pulls thru this. As of Friday noon, the CDC Certified deaths was 20,050. At the some time CNN was reporting 50,000. An RN is the one that pointed this out.

This is from the CDC's website

U.S. At A Glance
As of April 24, 2020
Total Cases - 895,766
Total Deaths - 50,439

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

How did the RN point this out to you? Did the RN just tell you or did the RN point you to a source and you checked it out for yourself? Did the RN tell you that they had access to non-public CDC data?

Too many people spread rumors and stories without checking them out.

Tim

[Springfield]

I'm not saying you are wrong, but comparing flu deaths/total population versus Covid deaths/number of people tested is comparing apples to oranges. Almost no one has been tested, compared to the total population.
I am glad your dad seems to be fighting it well. So far no one Iknow, in person or online has been sick, and I hope it stays that way.

[rancher1913]

the whuflu is not a flu. the normal flu numbers are for the year and are worldwide, the whuflu numbers are just for the last few months, never has the normal flu needed semitrailer morgue overflow. how many of you know somebody that died from the flu, now how many of you know somebody that has died from the whuflu. statistics lie, use your eyes.

[PNW_Steve]

Flu vaccine Covid-19....

Flu - 34k dead over a year vs Covid-19 that has killed over 50k in two months.

I get the idea that Covid-19 may be more dangerous than the flu.

[downzero]

Who told you that and why would you repeat it without checking the data?

2018/19 USA flu season, 35 million symptomatic cases of the flu with 34 thousand deaths. For a whole year! Mortality rate is one death per thousand cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

So far in 2020 for COVID-19 in the USA not even a million confirmed cases and 55 thousand deaths. Mortality rate is 55 deaths per thousand cases.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=u.s.+covid-19+statistics&qs=SC&pq=u.s.+civud-19+&sk=SC4&sc=8-14&cvid=B7BADEE8255C4DD6B4A90C65A168F0FE&FORM=QBRE&sp=5&ghc=1

Lets just pretend that the number of Covid-19 cases are under reported by a factor of 10, COVID would still be 5 times deadlier than the Flu.

Tim

Saying "for a whole year" for the flu makes no sense. Nobody is getting the flu in July. It is a seasonal illness!

[rancher1913]

our july is somebody else's december.

[MrWolf]

My understanding is the covid related deaths may be inflated as anyone with the virus is considered to have died from it no matter any other issues. If true then the percentages would be misstated. Luck to your father.

[Scrounge]

Who told you that and why would you repeat it without checking the data?

2018/19 USA flu season, 35 million symptomatic cases of the flu with 34 thousand deaths. For a whole year! Mortality rate is one death per thousand cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

So far in 2020 for COVID-19 in the USA not even a million confirmed cases and 55 thousand deaths. Mortality rate is 55 deaths per thousand cases.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=u.s.+covid-19+statistics&qs=SC&pq=u.s.+civud-19+&sk=SC4&sc=8-14&cvid=B7BADEE8255C4DD6B4A90C65A168F0FE&FORM=QBRE&sp=5&ghc=1

Lets just pretend that the number of Covid-19 cases are under reported by a factor of 10, COVID would still be 5 times deadlier than the Flu.

Tim

Yesterday, when I looked at the CDC stats for Flu, they said from 24K-62K deaths October 2019-April 2020.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

We're at about 50K deaths from Covid 19, also as of yesterday.

[rking22]

This is from the CDC's website

U.S. At A Glance
As of April 24, 2020
Total Cases - 895,766
Total Deaths - 50,439

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

How did the RN point this out to you? Did the RN just tell you or did the RN point you to a source and you checked it out for yourself? Did the RN tell you that they had access to non-public CDC data?

Too many people spread rumors and stories without checking them out.

Tim

We saw that page, he selected the “certified” page link from the site, handed me his phone showing both the page you show, then the Certified page showing 20050 deaths. Right on the CDC site and yes I saw it with my own eyes. Don’t know if he has access at a deeper level than general public. I am only interested in the truth, that is not going to be found on the general media. I can get him to send me the link tomorrow if it is public, he is my son’s boss.

[dangitgriff]

Who told you that and why would you repeat it without checking the data?

2018/19 USA flu season, 35 million symptomatic cases of the flu with 34 thousand deaths. For a whole year! Mortality rate is one death per thousand cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

So far in 2020 for COVID-19 in the USA not even a million confirmed cases and 55 thousand deaths. Mortality rate is 55 deaths per thousand cases.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=u.s.+covid-19+statistics&qs=SC&pq=u.s.+civud-19+&sk=SC4&sc=8-14&cvid=B7BADEE8255C4DD6B4A90C65A168F0FE&FORM=QBRE&sp=5&ghc=1

Lets just pretend that the number of Covid-19 cases are under reported by a factor of 10, COVID would still be 5 times deadlier than the Flu.

Tim

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/04/no_author/flu-misinformation-and-coronavirus-fears-my-letter-to-dr-sanjay-gupta/

From Julian Rose at Global Research:
“The ‘gold standard’ in testing for COVID-19 is laboratory isolated/purified coronavirus particles free from any contaminants and particles that look like viruses but are not, that have been proven to be the cause of the syndrome known as COVID-19 and obtained by using proper viral isolation methods and controls (not the PCR that is currently being used or Serology /antibody tests which do not detect virus as such). PCR basically takes a sample of your cells and amplifies any DNA to look for ‘viral sequences’, i.e. bits of non-human DNA that seem to match parts of a known viral genome. The problem is the test is known not to work.”

1. According to data from the best-studied countries such as South Korea, Iceland, Germany and Denmark, the overall lethality of Covid19 is between 0.1% and 0.4% and thus up to twenty times lower than initially assumed by the WHO.
2. A study in Nature Medicine comes to a similar conclusion even for the Chinese city of Wuhan. The initially significantly higher values for Wuhan were obtained because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not recorded.
3. 50% to 80% of test-positive individuals remain symptom-free. Even among the 70 to 79 year old persons about 60% remain symptom-free, many more show only mild symptoms.
4. The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious previous illnesses. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality. Up to 60% of all Covid19-related deaths have occurred in particularly vulnerable nursing homes.
5. Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 have proven to be false upon closer inspection. Many of these people either did not die from Covid19 or they in fact had serious preconditions (such as undiagnosed leukaemia).
6. Normal overall mortality in the US is about 8000 people per day, in Germany about 2600 people and in Italy about 1800 people per day. Influenza mortality in the US is up to 80,000, in Germany and Italy up to 25,000, and in Switzerland up to 1500 people per winter.
7. Strongly increased death rates, as in northern Italy, can be influenced by additional risk factors such as very high air pollution and microbial contamination as well as a collapse in the care of the elderly and sick due to mass panic and lockdown measures.
8. In countries such as Italy and Spain, and to some extent Great Britain and the US, a serious overload of hospitals, notably by the flu, is not unusual. In addition, up to 15% of doctors and nurses currently have to self-quarantine, even if they develop no symptoms.
9. An important distinction concerns the question of whether people die with or indeed from coronaviruses. Autopsies show that in many cases the previous illnesses were an important or decisive factor, but the official figures usually do not reflect this.
10. Thus in order to assess the danger of the disease, the key indicator is not the often mentioned number of test-positive persons and deceased, but the number of persons who actually and unexpectedly develop or die of pneumonia.

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation:
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

R/Griff

[dtknowles]

We saw that page, he selected the “certified” page link from the site, handed me his phone showing both the page you show, then the Certified page showing 20050 deaths. Right on the CDC site and yes I saw it with my own eyes. Don’t know if he has access at a deeper level than general public. I am only interested in the truth, that is not going to be found on the general media. I can get him to send me the link tomorrow if it is public, he is my son’s boss.

I just spent some more time looking around the CDC website and did not find the Certified Page. Would like to see the link if you can get it shared.

Thanks for sharing more of the story.

We have solved the mystery of what CNN was reporting, the same thing CDC site was reporting. The total Covid deaths the states reported to the CDC. Even 20000 deaths make it more deadly than the flu.

The 55,000 number is the truth, it is the number of COVID 19 deaths reported by the states, DC, Guam, etc. Is it the true number of deaths over an above the deaths we would have without the virus? No, some of those people would have died anyway. Did all of them have COVID, not sure, States and hospitals have reasons to inflate the numbers.

Tim

[roadie]

What's with all the massive death counts being printed in this thread?

Do people not understand that the death counts are being manipulated and inflated? A large percentage of the so called Covid-19 deaths weren't caused by Covid-19.......they were caused by underlying health conditions. These people would have died from catching a bad cold, the majority are elderly patients........elderly people die easy.

I've seen reports of people 100 years old dying from Covid-19..............no, they didn't die from Covid-19, they died cause they're 100 years old.......the gullibility of people is simply unbelievable.

Others were obese, had heart conditions, high blood pressure, probably most with diabetes.......you get any half serious infection when you're in that state of health, there's an really good chance you're toast. Anyone from young to 70-90 years old is probably dead if they go into it that unhealthy.

The fact is, most people live a lifestyle that invites disease, then they catch even a bad cold, get pneumonia, and they don't have a chance.

But nope, everyone just grabs on to the "official" numbers and continue on in their blessed ignorance......easier to ignore the truth, than to face it and deal with it.

[rking22]

Tim, I looked as well and could not find the link. I didn’t pay attention to how it got it to come up. Came up when I asked about flu deaths this year to date. I think his point is the certified number removes the “head on collision but tested positive for virus antibodies”. Seems quite a few medical people feel there is some book cooking going on. He seemed to have substantial energy about the issue. I will see if I can get link tomorrow.

[dtknowles]

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/04/no_author/flu-misinformation-and-coronavirus-fears-my-letter-to-dr-sanjay-gupta/

From Julian Rose at Global Research:
“The ‘gold standard’ in testing for COVID-19 is laboratory isolated/purified coronavirus particles free from any contaminants and particles that look like viruses but are not, that have been proven to be the cause of the syndrome known as COVID-19 and obtained by using proper viral isolation methods and controls (not the PCR that is currently being used or Serology /antibody tests which do not detect virus as such). PCR basically takes a sample of your cells and amplifies any DNA to look for ‘viral sequences’, i.e. bits of non-human DNA that seem to match parts of a known viral genome. The problem is the test is known not to work.”

1. According to data from the best-studied countries such as South Korea, Iceland, Germany and Denmark, the overall lethality of Covid19 is between 0.1% and 0.4% and thus up to twenty times lower than initially assumed by the WHO.
2. A study in Nature Medicine comes to a similar conclusion even for the Chinese city of Wuhan. The initially significantly higher values for Wuhan were obtained because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not recorded.
3. 50% to 80% of test-positive individuals remain symptom-free. Even among the 70 to 79 year old persons about 60% remain symptom-free, many more show only mild symptoms.
4. The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious previous illnesses. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality. Up to 60% of all Covid19-related deaths have occurred in particularly vulnerable nursing homes.
5. Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 have proven to be false upon closer inspection. Many of these people either did not die from Covid19 or they in fact had serious preconditions (such as undiagnosed leukaemia).
6. Normal overall mortality in the US is about 8000 people per day, in Germany about 2600 people and in Italy about 1800 people per day. Influenza mortality in the US is up to 80,000, in Germany and Italy up to 25,000, and in Switzerland up to 1500 people per winter.
7. Strongly increased death rates, as in northern Italy, can be influenced by additional risk factors such as very high air pollution and microbial contamination as well as a collapse in the care of the elderly and sick due to mass panic and lockdown measures.
8. In countries such as Italy and Spain, and to some extent Great Britain and the US, a serious overload of hospitals, notably by the flu, is not unusual. In addition, up to 15% of doctors and nurses currently have to self-quarantine, even if they develop no symptoms.
9. An important distinction concerns the question of whether people die with or indeed from coronaviruses. Autopsies show that in many cases the previous illnesses were an important or decisive factor, but the official figures usually do not reflect this.
10. Thus in order to assess the danger of the disease, the key indicator is not the often mentioned number of test-positive persons and deceased, but the number of persons who actually and unexpectedly develop or die of pneumonia.

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation:
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

R/Griff

The first link, from the LewRockwell site is opinion not science.

The stuff in between, you don't say were it came from or a link, just Julian Rose at Global Research:

This is what I found "Julian is an international activist, writer, broadcaster, organic farming pioneer and actor." not a doctor or scientist either.

And the piece from "The Hill" While I am not a fan of "The Hill" at least Dr. Scott W. Atlas is an MD. He is a radiologist not an epidemiologist but still close enough for me. It is an opinion piece but does reference some studies like:

"The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent." That is right from the story you linked.

So if we don't social distance and pass the virus to all of us then we should expect between 300,000 and 600,000 deaths in the USA. Do you see why we are trying to stop the spread of the disease.

The doctor goes on to say that we are handling this isolation wrong and we should only isolate people with existing medical conditions. I would be OK with that, I would just stay in isolation until they work out a vaccine or better treatment. The rest of you can mingle all you want.

Oh, by the way those numbers from the Stanford study are as much as twice the mortality of the Flu.

Tim

[Handloader109]

it is way overblown. statistics from at least two studies, one new York one Stanford show that 10 to 50 times the number of folks have already had the wuhan virus. So 10 to 50 million of us. and over 30 percent of the deaths nationwide are in nursing homes. And almost 100 percent have preexisting health problems. if you are healthy. it will most probably not even affect you at all. This isnt a pandemic, that would be 10 times the number dying. and this hide in your home is only slightly affective. have you not been to the grocery this month?

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

[Thundarstick]

I asked my wife (RN) once. Are there people who think if the doctor gives the rite medicine, or prescribes the rite treatment every time my loved one will live forever? She looked me dead in the eye and said, "yes, yes they ARE! ". This was after someone was telling us about how Dr X at hospital Y had KILLED his 91 year old father.

This SARS virus is real, it is killing a few people, nearly ALL the fatalities have multiple comorbid conditions that worked together to take that person's life. In my opinion, it has been blown completely out of proportion compared to the damage it has caused due to media fear mongering! I'd love to see the media beat the drum on a daily basis for every smoking, alcohol, or obesity related death! BTW, age factors into how likely one is to die of ANY cause, even driving (an auto crash took my Papa)(cancer took the other)! I'm told, statistically, once one passes 80 years old, the chance to see the next birthday is cut in half from the year before, e.t.c e.t.c, so you see the astronomical odds against reaching 100 years.

To the OP, I'm sincerely sorry. My mother in law died from pulmonary fibrosis (lungs just harden and stop working) it was heart breaking hearing her pray to God to end her battle and take her on.

[john.k]

Is claimed the virus is also taking young people with a condition like a stroke with a generalized effect.........I wonder if widespread use of ice has something to do with this......Those who dont know look at me funny,but I worked organizing young (u35s) guys on labour contracts,and had to be very aware of how a job could turn into a disaster (for us) when the lead contractor did their own drug testing......We would spend thousands on site inductions ,only to have 15 out of 20 refused entry to the site,and given 1 month suspensions.....Cops bust tons of ice every day,how much gets on the streets?...80%,90%?

[dangitgriff]

The first link, from the LewRockwell site is opinion not science.

The stuff in between, you don't say were it came from or a link, just Julian Rose at Global Research:

This is what I found "Julian is an international activist, writer, broadcaster, organic farming pioneer and actor." not a doctor or scientist either.

And the piece from "The Hill" While I am not a fan of "The Hill" at least Dr. Scott W. Atlas is an MD. He is a radiologist not an epidemiologist but still close enough for me. It is an opinion piece but does reference some studies like:

"The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent." That is right from the story you linked.

So if we don't social distance and pass the virus to all of us then we should expect between 300,000 and 600,000 deaths in the USA. Do you see why we are trying to stop the spread of the disease.

The doctor goes on to say that we are handling this isolation wrong and we should only isolate people with existing medical conditions. I would be OK with that, I would just stay in isolation until they work out a vaccine or better treatment. The rest of you can mingle all you want.

Oh, by the way those numbers from the Stanford study are as much as twice the mortality of the Flu.

Tim

You’ve missed the point.
Not one single “reputable” medical institution knows how many people have been infected with C-19. They couldn’t possibly know that. The only reason the mortality rate appears higher than the flu is because the “reputable” medical institutions (insert your favorite one here) are using the number of CONFIRMED C-19 cases, not the ESTIMATED number, as they do when determining flu mortality.
Additionally, over 80 percent (let’s just say the vast majority) of people who have died from C-19 had other health issues, called comorbidity factors, which calls into question whether those folks died FROM Covid-19, or died WITH Covid-19. There is a difference.
The U.S. has seen 80,000 flu deaths in a year. When Covid-19 deaths approach this number I will certainly worry in earnest. Until then, I’ll continue to believe nothing I hear from the mainstream media and only half of what I see on TV.
The government is using this Coronavirus outbreak as yet another opportunity to consolidate power and control into the hands of the wretched few in Washington, D.C., and the American people are falling for it once again hook, line and sinker. That’s what makes me sick.
R/Griff

[downzero]

our july is somebody else's december.

And those deaths can be found in some other country's data!


You’ve missed the point.
Not one single “reputable” medical institution knows how many people have been infected with C-19. They couldn’t possibly know that. The only reason the mortality rate appears higher than the flu is because the “reputable” medical institutions (insert your favorite one here) are using the number of CONFIRMED C-19 cases, not the ESTIMATED number, as they do when determining flu mortality.
Additionally, over 80 percent (let’s just say the vast majority) of people who have died from C-19 had other health issues, called comorbidity factors, which calls into question whether those folks died FROM Covid-19, or died WITH Covid-19. There is a difference.
The U.S. has seen 80,000 flu deaths in a year. When Covid-19 deaths approach this number I will certainly worry in earnest. Until then, I’ll continue to believe nothing I hear from the mainstream media and only half of what I see on TV.
The government is using this Coronavirus outbreak as yet another opportunity to consolidate power and control into the hands of the wretched few in Washington, D.C., and the American people are falling for it once again hook, line and sinker. That’s what makes me sick.
R/Griff

I've heard that over 90% actually had some other serious health condition, but I haven't seen the raw data.

[dangitgriff]

Perspective is sorely missing from this entire Covid-19 fiasco. A chart of the top ten leading causes of death of Americans:
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200427/465c9fcfdd9b78c28809a36d0507e9f2.jpg
R/Griff

[rancher1913]

this whuflu is not bad all over but where it is bad its very bad, stop looking at numbers and open your eyes. lots of people get it and dont even know it and lots get sick and die, unfortunately you dont get to pick which way your symptoms will go.

[dangitgriff]

Well, Rancher, when was the last time the state and federal governments put the entire nation on lockdown and purposely destroyed our economy over the flu? Heart disease? Cancer?
The entire M.O. stinks to high heaven and we will be seeing financial repercussions for many years to come. The future of freedom is in danger while we cower inside our homes. This is the real threat, not the virus.
So sad to see this country once full of anti-big government sentiment just roll over and accept everything they are told by D.C. and our state legislatures.
R/Griff

[Handloader109]

Take Dangitgriff's chart, see way down at the bottom there were 2,813,503 Deaths in the United States in 2017. There were over 335,000,000 people in the US in 2017.
Death rate was 0.84 percent.
There have been 50,000 folks reported killed by the wuhan flu in roughly 2 months. Multiply by 6 for 300,000 folks dying in a year at the current rate. That would result in 0.09% death rate in the country as a whole. And a LARGE portion of the deaths from the prior causes will be included in those 300,000. (as they are now) especially the respiratory, diabetes, heart and kidney disease.
Will there be 300,000 reported by the year end? I doubt it. I'd expect roughly half that number at the rate we are going, maybe even less than 100,000.

This supposed 'pandemic' is WAY the hell overblown. And just look at the liberties YOU have given up to supposedly slow down, not stop or eliminate, just slow down the spread.
NOTHING that any of us is doing is really stopping the spread. It just slows it down.

Unless you are a hermit on the mountain and you never have contact with ANY human or other human touched items.

[rancher1913]

never said it was not overblown, just that you are playing with fire if you think this is no big thing. never gave up any moving around and doing things here, just use common sense when out and about. slowing this down until the medical community could get a grip on things is what the shut down was about, the medical people have found treatments that work and for that we should be thankful for.

[Rich/WIS]

For a good overview go to Worldometer USA. Currently they show just shy of one million cases in the US, with 175K resolved i.e either recovered or died. Of the resolved cases about 120K recovered and 55K (30%) died. Not an encouraging statistic. If the remainder of all the the people who have it survive (optimistic) then mortality is still about 5%. Age and co-morbidity issues are major factors in your chances for survival and swing the mortality rates into the 70% and beyond range. Whether Covid-19 or regular Flu what generally kills you are complications from other infections that your immune system can no longer fight off and/or the aggravation of existing conditions that interfere with your ability to transfer oxygen.

As far as mortality rates are concerned the rate may drop as more testing is done. There is good indication that a lot of people had it and recovered and never realized what they had. One study of a random sample of the population showed a large number with anti-bodies for Covid-19 indicating they had it and recovered, most of whom never realized it. One study concluded that the infection rate could be 20 to 50 times higher than expected, which would drop the mortality rate significantly.

This stuff is serious whether you want to believe it or not. While some treatments show promise if you get it there is no silver bullet. Any vaccine developed to protect the general population is probably months in the future. Take precautions and do your best to stay healthy. If you think you have it call your doctor immediately. If you wait until you are having breathing issue you've waited too long and your chance for recovery is less than good.

For reliable information suggest the Worldometer site for numbers and MedCram for no hype, no hysteria, by medical professionals who are dealing with this on a daily basis.

[blackthorn]

My understanding is the covid related deaths may be inflated as anyone with the virus is considered to have died from it no matter any other issues. If true then the percentages would be misstated. Luck to your father.

In my opinion, the above is simply an exercise in semantics. It is true that many of the people dying while they have Covid also had underlying serious conditions. But, in those cases I believe we have to apply the "BUT FOR" test. In other words, "but for" the Covid, would the person have survived beyond the date they died?? Perhaps we should be classifying those deaths as Covid related rather than Covid caused. As I said, semantics! Those folks are still dead.

[Springfield]

And, if we all stopped driving there would be no more automobile related deaths. But then we would all die from starvation as we have no money to pay for food. Life is dangerous, you can't hide from everything. I am 63 so technically in the be careful age zone. I have teenagers, so I take care of myself, and them. I am not on any medication, still go backpacking with my son. My health is my responsibility, nobody else's. Today I am taking some of my stimulus money and buying a small motorcycle so I can teach my kids how to drive a bike, plus how to drive a vehicle with a clutch. I know no one personally who has Covid, which tells me it isn't as bad as they would have you believe. I am not going to hide in my house until the Government tells me it is safe, because it is NEVER safe. IMHO

[dragon813gt]

how many of you know somebody that died from the flu, now how many of you know somebody that has died from the whuflu. statistics lie, use your eyes.

Do I win a prize since I can answer yes to both? A Great Aunt passed away from the flu around Thanksgiving. And an acquaintance, mid forties / marathon runner / no underlying conditions, passed away from COVID-19. But I do live close the largest hot spot in the country and I’m in the largest hot spot in PA.

As more antibody tests are performed you will see the mortality rate continue to shrink. An article on Friday said that a quarter to half a million people in Los Angeles have antibodies. They didn’t test that many. They based the numbers on testing they had actually performed and extrapolated. These numbers put the mortality rate closer to the seasonal flu.

Life is not w/out danger. This virus is simply a new danger. You cannot hide in your home and hope it will go away. You can hide in your home and wait for a vaccine if you wish. But there are plenty of people that are willing to risk infection and go about their lives as normal.

Do what you can to protect yourself. But don’t expect others to protect you. It was this way before the virus and no one seemed to care.

[downzero]

In my opinion, the above is simply an exercise in semantics. It is true that many of the people dying while they have Covid also had underlying serious conditions. But, in those cases I believe we have to apply the "BUT FOR" test. In other words, "but for" the Covid, would the person have survived beyond the date they died?? Perhaps we should be classifying those deaths as Covid related rather than Covid caused. As I said, semantics! Those folks are still dead.

Semantics is the linguistic school concerned with meaning. I'm not sure what type of claim you're trying to make here.

The real issue with counting every "positive" person as having died from COVID-19 is that other countries aren't using the same criteria, and therefore, the statistics are not comparable between countries.

[dtknowles]

Well, Rancher, when was the last time the state and federal governments put the entire nation on lockdown and purposely destroyed our economy over the flu? Heart disease? Cancer?
The entire M.O. stinks to high heaven and we will be seeing financial repercussions for many years to come. The future of freedom is in danger while we cower inside our homes. This is the real threat, not the virus.
So sad to see this country once full of anti-big government sentiment just roll over and accept everything they are told by D.C. and our state legislatures.
R/Griff

How would a lockdown cut cancer or heart disease deaths?

[shooterg]

I take COVID seriously as I'm high risk. But I take the regular flu seriously too, as that and the ensuing pneumonia coulda took me away from here a couple years back. Don't understand why so many are so willing to give up on living their lives because they're scared of dying .The media and others have scared people silly. Take care, but nobody gets out of dying ! And having government exceed it's bounds to control us absolutely fries me !
Sending a prayer up for the OP's Dad .

[dtknowles]

And, if we all stopped driving there would be no more automobile related deaths. But then we would all die from starvation as we have no money to pay for food. Life is dangerous, you can't hide from everything. I am 63 so technically in the be careful age zone. I have teenagers, so I take care of myself, and them. I am not on any medication, still go backpacking with my son. My health is my responsibility, nobody else's. Today I am taking some of my stimulus money and buying a small motorcycle so I can teach my kids how to drive a bike, plus how to drive a vehicle with a clutch. I know no one personally who has Covid, which tells me it isn't as bad as they would have you believe. I am not going to hide in my house until the Government tells me it is safe, because it is NEVER safe. IMHO

I am not hiding in my house or waiting for the Government to tell me it is safe. I am social distancing and making my own decisions on what is safe and what is not. I see no point is going out and mingling with the public more than necessary which for me is about once a week. I did go to the post office to mail some packages that required I go to the counter but most packages can be mailed from the kiosk and hand sanitized deals with that.

It is actually not too bad working from home. I don't need this job, I love this job but if they forced me to go back to work before I thought it was smart, I would take vacation or quit. I have more than 10 weeks of unused vacation. Safe it a relative thing, yes, nothing is ever 100% safe but some things are riskier than others. It is a risk reward assessment that is personal for each of us. That is also why the government should use a light a hand as possible.

I like that the States are taking the lead on this instead of the Federal Government because each state's situation is different and even more different are individual cities. Death rates are much higher is some cities.

Tim

[john.k]

Basic fact is that lockdowns and control measures are to save the older population,and the young will have to pay ....but even if the country ignored the effect on its own population ,then there is the complete shutdown of international air travel and tourism ,with whatever effect that will have......If you want to see how the virus epidemic progresses without any measures to limit spread ,Brazil is that country.....Another factor is that whenever control measures are lifted ,will the virus epidemic be back to square one?..We have to assume there will be less susceptable population second time round ,but still plenty untouched by the first round ,but still high risk.....Question...can we let everyone over 60 die?....How much to pay to prevent it?

[Battis]

I spoke with a DR today and he told me that the overall average number of deaths in our state has not increased since last year. He also told me that the virus death totals are overblown, as we all know.
Want to save 40,000 - 50,000 lives per year, year after year? And save another 200,000 people per year from being injured and maimed? Close all the roads, ban all driving.

[dangitgriff]

I spoke with a DR today and he told me that the overall average number of deaths in our state has not increased since last year. He also told me that the virus death totals are overblown, as we all know.
Want to save 40,000 - 50,000 lives per year, year after year? And save another 200,000 people per year from being injured and maimed? Close all the roads, ban all driving.

...or the government could tax the hell out of sugar, corn syrup, processed foods, alcohol and tobacco products.
We’re so fat as a nation it’s literally killing us.
R/Griff

[dangitgriff]

How would a lockdown cut cancer or heart disease deaths?

I’m asking the exact same question about the current lockdown.
The gov’t will claim it worked and point to the lower-than-expected number of deaths.
There’s no way to know for certain and we Americans are too dumb and afraid to think critically for ourselves.

R/Griff

[Battis]

we Americans are too dumb and afraid to think critically for ourselves.

I don't agree with that. Some, maybe. I'm not into conspiracy theories, but there's a lot going on here that we don't know about.

[dangitgriff]

I don't agree with that. Some, maybe. I'm not into conspiracy theories, but there's a lot going on here that we don't know about.

I’ll quote Jim Quinn in an effort to be more clear:
“Using victims to create false heroes has now been elevated to an art form by politicians, the corporate media and mega-corporations to push whatever agenda supports their narrative. The propaganda machine is their most useful tool, as decades of dumbing down the public through government school indoctrination has created millions of pliable useful idiots who will believe anything presented by “experts” on the boob tube. The fear and panic created by politicians and the media about a virus only marginally more dangerous than the common flu is the perfect representation of this power over reality.”
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/04/jim-quinn/throttle-up/

[Battis]

I don't need Jim Quinn to lead me to "think critically." Of course people can act like sheep, of course some people like to be told what to think, and many people like to be afraid. Read STATE OF FEAR by Michael Creighton. It's the herd mentality. Say what you want about Donald Trump, but I believe that he is exactly what this country needs to survive. If he is part of some global conspiracy, well, then we're all screwed.

[Teddy (punchie)]

https://www.mygov.in/covid-19

Please open this and learn.

This is not this country's first fight with diseases. They are winning, doing a lot better then us. Plus one stop shopping, all the information is right there to be found one there main web page.

There death rate on the ones that get this is around .044 % this will climb as the 700-1000 people a day that are getting COVID-19 bodies wear down.

They are about a month or so behind us.

[Battis]

OK, I opened it but I'm not sure if it was worth the click.

[dragon813gt]

There death rate on the ones that get this is around .044 % this will climb as the 700-1000 people a day that are getting COVID-19 bodies wear down.


It will climb because more are dying. But it’s essentially a false number. They aren’t testing everyone. I can assure you that it will be like here. Recent tests have shown that a lot of people have antibodies already. We’re talking fifty fold what they’ve been reporting. This drops the mortality rate to low levels like the flu.

I’m not saying this virus isn’t dangerous. But it has to be kept in perspective. W/out testing we don’t know the real mortality rate. We will never know the true mortality rate because we haven’t done the testing in the past and we won’t test everyone in the future.

They throw out a high mortality rate figure to scare people. Fear is a powerful motivator. If you’re truly scared then stay home. I have a coworker who did this. Well I should say former coworker because they aren’t going to bring him back. But he is that scared that he’s staying home until he feels safe.

Pay attention to Sweden. Yes it has a small population which is scattered about in small villages. The numbers there are misleading as well. What they are doing is building up herd immunity. Right now we hear about how antibodies don’t mean you can’t be reinfected. They can’t prove that at this time but it’s a headline that gets your attention. They also haven’t proven that having antibodies does prevent reinfection. Sweden may have done their population a solid by letting them go about their daily lives and trusting them to do the right thing. Kind of like the US has done forever.

[Geraldo]

It's probably not worth posting because most of those who posted want to believe what they want to believe. Consider though, that it's not just about whether you live or die. You could be like this guy https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/26/health/coronavirus-patient-ventilator.html, who was healthy and spent 32 days on a ventilator. Even though it looks like he will get back to normal eventually, he's lost a lot of time in the hospital and recovery, and a pile of money on medical bills.

We know too little about this disease, including the number of strains or if some are more lethal than others, to make statements that it only kills X population. It makes people feel safer to say that only the old or unhealthy get sick/die, but it's not true.

[Battis]

As I said before, shut down the roads, and you'll save 40,000 - 50,00 lives per year, year after year. And when you finally reopen the roads, people will begin to die again. And even if you don't die in a car accident, you could be injured, maimed, crippled - I could find videos and stories of people who didn't die in car accidents but are messed up for life. Why, then, with this knowledge out there, do people still drive?

[Geraldo]

As I said before, shut down the roads, and you'll save 40,000 - 50,00 lives per year, year after year. And when you finally reopen the roads, people will begin to die again. And even if you don't die in a car accident, you could be injured, maimed, crippled - I could find videos and stories of people who didn't die in car accidents but are messed up for life. Why, then, with this knowledge out there, do people still drive?

Nice try, but it's a bad analogy. We've done a lot to reduce death and injury in car wrecks: seat belts, air bags, crush zones. To which you will no doubt say that the number of deaths in wrecks still numbers in the tens of thousands since we've mandated those features, while failing to note that there are far more cars on the road today.

[Battis]

Why is it a bad analogy? Death is death. Facts are facts. Numbers are numbers. I don't care what we've done to reduce death and injury - it still occurs. If dropping the speed limit to 55 MPH saved lives and gas, why has it been raised to 70+? If they can fly drones over a crowd to take people's temperatures, then they can disable text messaging while driving. So, 40,000 to 50,000 deaths from car accidents are acceptable...why? Because we've tried to reduce them? "Oh, we tried so we're covered." Naw.
You say it's a bad analogy because, apparently, it doesn't fit into your Corvid 19 mindset.

[dangitgriff]

Quarantining our healthy population should be a gigantic, flashing sign of tyranny to freedom-espousing American citizens.
Sadly, nope. Doesn’t even register.
R/Griff

[Battis]

I don't blame anyone for the initial quarantine, but, with the facts as we know them now, we should open up society again, or we'll never get it back. The one thing that I feared did not happen - they did not come for our guns.

[dtknowles]

Quarantining our healthy population should be a gigantic, flashing sign of tyranny to freedom-espousing American citizens.
Sadly, nope. Doesn’t even register.
R/Griff

What health people are under quarantine. Not me, I can go to the store and many places. I can even travel out of state. Not that I want to but I could still fly across the country for work or to visit family.

There is not quarantine. Non-essential business are closed or restricted. Large gatherings are prohibited. That is not a quarantine.

Tim

[dangitgriff]

Who gets to decide what businesses are essential or non-essential?
“Governments have no right or authority to tell us what business or other activity is ‘essential.’ Only in totalitarian states does the government claim this authority.” ~ Ron Paul

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/04/laurence-m-vance/all-businesses-matter/

[Walks]

My Wife thinks I had the chinese flu back in Feb/Mar. For about 3 weeks I was sick as a dog. Had most of the usual Flu symptoms and a bad sore throat. Antibiotics did no good, had 3 different cycles of them. Finally shook it off after 3 weeks of hardship. Never actually saw my DR. he just subscribed over the phone.
But looking back, the Wife really feels I had it. Daughter and Wife didn't catch it. But then they stayed well away from me.

One of the antibiotics was a Z-Pak, and I heard a DR. back east treated His chinese flu with a Z-Pak, along with a couple of other antibiotics.

And I know that some DR. treat patients with viral infections with antibiotics because the immune system is compromised while you're fighting the virus. And the antibiotics stave off other possible infections.

just saying

[dtknowles]

Who gets to decide what businesses are essential or non-essential?
“Governments have no right or authority to tell us what business or other activity is ‘essential.’ Only in totalitarian states does the government claim this authority.” ~ Ron Paul

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/04/laurence-m-vance/all-businesses-matter/

Maybe so but the USA has a precedent, they did it during WWII.

I think there is no doubt that some states have exceeded their legitimate and legal authority. There is a remedy for this, people harmed need to take them to court. If you can't show harm you have no standing to take them to court but certainly some businesses have been harmed and I think the case that some states have be arbitrary and capricious in their decisions is clear.

We also have a second remedy, the ballot box if a politician has exceeded their authority then vote them out of office. Some states even have recall provisions, you don't have to wait until the next election.

The third remedy is protests and civil disobedience. These have consequence of their own.

Tim

[Teddy (punchie)]

It will climb because more are dying. But it’s essentially a false number. They aren’t testing everyone. I can assure you that it will be like here. Recent tests have shown that a lot of people have antibodies already. We’re talking fifty fold what they’ve been reporting. This drops the mortality rate to low levels like the flu.

I’m not saying this virus isn’t dangerous. But it has to be kept in perspective. W/out testing we don’t know the real mortality rate. We will never know the true mortality rate because we haven’t done the testing in the past and we won’t test everyone in the future.

They throw out a high mortality rate figure to scare people. Fear is a powerful motivator. If you’re truly scared then stay home. I have a coworker who did this. Well I should say former coworker because they aren’t going to bring him back. But he is that scared that he’s staying home until he feels safe.

Pay attention to Sweden. Yes it has a small population which is scattered about in small villages. The numbers there are misleading as well. What they are doing is building up herd immunity. Right now we hear about how antibodies don’t mean you can’t be reinfected. They can’t prove that at this time but it’s a headline that gets your attention. They also haven’t proven that having antibodies does prevent reinfection. Sweden may have done their population a solid by letting them go about their daily lives and trusting them to do the right thing. Kind of like the US has done forever.

Sweden Stats : Are showing numbers running right around the rest of there Neighbors, % of cases to death is higher: 18926 tested with COVID-19 and 2274 dead. That's at 12 % of the people that have had it are dead. I don't call that a country I want to follow. They are higher then Poland, Austria, Ireland.

Remember we have a lot to learn about this Virus.

[jjnpg317]

During WW1 in 1918 and after the war in 1919, the USA was in another pandemic called the Spanish Flu. The Allies ( US/England/ France ) didn't carry much news of it because they didn't want Germany to know how it affected their armies. Spain was a netural and reported the pandemic, so that's why it was called the Spanish Flu. If I remember correctly, over 600,000 deaths in the US , and between 50 to 100 million worldwide.
Social distancing and other things like no crowds over 10-20 people together, events canceled, businesses closed, were used in 1918-1919 to try to keep the virus from spreading. The first reported case in the US was a soldier at Fort Riley, Kansas.

[roadie]

Sweden Stats : Are showing numbers running right around the rest of there Neighbors, % of cases to death is higher: 18926 tested with COVID-19 and 2274 dead. That's at 12 % of the people that have had it are dead. I don't call that a country I want to follow. They are higher then Poland, Austria, Ireland.

Remember we have a lot to learn about this Virus.



Is that 18,926 right, or a typo?

If it's right, that's not a whole lot of people considering Sweden has something like 10 million people. It must be a typo, cause Sweden hasn't enacted the same measures that most other countries have. With Sweden staying pretty much business as usual, the infection rate has to be quite high......I would expect in the millions.

I suppose we'll see fairly soon, as the incubation period of Covid-19 has been over for a while for a lot of Swedes. If the experts are right, Swedes will be dropping left, right, and center very soon.......Covid-19 is said to be incredibly infectious, and just as deadly.

Sweden has definitely set itself up as a test case for isolation.

[dtknowles]

Is that 18,926 right, or a typo?

If it's right, that's not a whole lot of people considering Sweden has something like 10 million people. It must be a typo, cause Sweden hasn't enacted the same measures that most other countries have. With Sweden staying pretty much business as usual, the infection rate has to be quite high......I would expect in the millions.

I suppose we'll see fairly soon, as the incubation period of Covid-19 has been over for a while for a lot of Swedes. If the experts are right, Swedes will be dropping left, right, and center very soon.......Covid-19 is said to be incredibly infectious, and just as deadly.

Sweden has definitely set itself up as a test case for isolation.

Just because the government has not ordered isolation does not mean that the people aren't doing some form of social distancing and other protections that smart people would. They have banned gatherings of more than 50 people and some other measures.

if 2,274 deaths is a real number and the total final number of deaths then in a population of 10 million that is 0.23 deaths per thousand or .023 percent of the population. If the USA had similar results then our total deaths would be more than 75,000. It would seem our restrictions are saving lives. To bad we would not do this voluntarily. It is too bad Sweden is not doing better voluntarily.

This years flu killed 14,000 people so far, 250,000 people were hospitalized and 26 million people had symptoms. That is for a flu season that started last fall and is pretty much over.

Tim

[dtknowles]

Quarantining our healthy population should be a gigantic, flashing sign of tyranny to freedom-espousing American citizens.
Sadly, nope. Doesn’t even register.
R/Griff

Does it seem like tyranny to you to order meat packing plants to stay open. Can we really order sick people to go to work? Or people to go to workplaces that are making them sick?

Yes, is seems we have more than enough tyranny to go around.

Tim

[dangitgriff]

Does it seem like tyranny to you to order meat packing plants to stay open. Can we really order sick people to go to work? Or people to go to workplaces that are making them sick?

Yes, is seems we have more than enough tyranny to go around.

Tim

You miss the point.
There is a huge difference between voluntary actions and actions coerced by government.
Voluntary actions = free society.
R/Griff

[MrWolf]

If you are sick don't go to work. You are not being forced at gun point. National Guard could fill in vacancies if needed. I agree with the President. Keeping our people fed is kinda important.

[Geraldo]

Why is it a bad analogy?

It's a bad analogy because what quarantine and other measures do is reduce, not eliminate, illness and death. The same as seatbelts reduce death in cars.

I would suggest reading science and not politics. From the beginning, epidemiologists have said that if mitigation and suppression work, it will look like we did this for nothing. NYC shows what happens without adequate suppression, which is hospitals overloaded with Covid19 patients. That's bad news for the guy who had a heart attack during that time. It's also disastrous for the local and state economy.

The hard truth is that there was no good answer. If we had done nothing, there would be more cities and towns with NYC type stats, and we'd have possibly worse economic repercussions. We did something, and the health care system stayed above water in most places, and we are trying to manage the economic consequences, to include re-opening. In other words, we get some measure of control of our circumstances. The other hard truth is that neither the virus nor the economic damage are over, and they may not be for a long time, as in years.

[dangitgriff]

The hard truth is what the Federal and state governments have done (and are still doing) is blatantly un-Constitutional.
Full stop.
It’s precisely because most people think what our government is doing is okay that we are in such a terrible place now—enjoying a free trial of communism.
R/Griff

[dtknowles]

You miss the point.
There is a huge difference between voluntary actions and actions coerced by government.
Voluntary actions = free society.
R/Griff

I don't confuse them at all.

Didn't the government just order meat packing plants to stay open when they voluntarily closed to protect their workers.

Tim

[dtknowles]

If you are sick don't go to work. You are not being forced at gun point. National Guard could fill in vacancies if needed. I agree with the President. Keeping our people fed is kinda important.

I did not see anything about staffing the meat packing plants with the national guard. It certainly is not about people starving. You can be fine eating beans and rice or noodles and sauce or bread and cheese for a few weeks or months.

Tim

[Battis]

It's a bad analogy because...
So, you accept 40,000 to 50,000 deaths per year, plus 200,000 injuries, from car accidents because at least we're trying to prevent them, even though they still occur? Yet, if we completely banned driving and shut down all the roads, all those lives would be saved. But, you would not accept deaths from a virus that might occur if we open businesses, schools, etc? That makes no sense. And, numbers are science, not politics.

[dragon813gt]

Sweden Stats : Are showing numbers running right around the rest of there Neighbors, % of cases to death is higher: 18926 tested with COVID-19 and 2274 dead. That's at 12 % of the people that have had it are dead. I don't call that a country I want to follow. They are higher then Poland, Austria, Ireland.

Remember we have a lot to learn about this Virus.

Why is this so hard for people to understand? Those reported numbers aren’t the full sorry. They are simply the numbers from people that have been tested. They have not tested everyone to know the true numbers. You can extrapolate from the tests done in LA County that Sweden has a high percentage of people that have antibodies. This means they had it and got over it. Those numbers need to be added to the total case number to get the true mortality rate. When you do this the mortality rate decreases.

As an example LA County has 20,976 confirmed cases w/ 1,000 deaths for a mortality rate of 4.7%. W/ the antibody testing the low end estimate for people that have recovered is 250,000. This puts the mortality rate at 0.4%. The high end of the estimate is 500,000 people have had it and recovered. This puts the mortality rate at 0.2%.

The reported numbers aren’t the full story because it doesn’t account for the people that had it and never knew they did. The numbers being reported are meant to keep you in fear. I realize they reported numbers are hard and not estimates. But there’s lots of shenanigans and padded numbers. One county in PA had ten cases added to their total over night but the morgues have no records of these deaths by COVID-19.

If you want to self quarantine go ahead. The rest of us are willing to roll the dice and let life play out as normal.

[bangerjim]

Just read an article that some virologists on this stuff say it will be with humankind for years to come. There are now 30 documented variants of it. The stuff on the east coast is from Italy and Europe. The stuff on the west coast is from China. All of it started in China, but migrated and mutated thru different paths to reach our shores.

And it was also said that this hope that summer temps will kill it is just wishful thinking. The scientists say it takes 56°C (133F) for a period to effectively kill it. Surfaces in direct sun can get that hot, especially here in AZ! But many places it will never get that hot, even in your car.

Bottom line: we need a cure and a vaccine ASAP! Or we will be fighting this thing for years without them.

bangerjim

[rking22]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm


Above is link to CDC certified data. Interesting info, the “expected deaths%” is deaths in the 2020 period compared to average of 3 prior years. I think the number being notably lower than the estimated number is data lag due to review and classification as well as reporting lag from states. New York City has 2 times the number deaths this year period vs average of prior 3, much higher than anywhere else, like 2 times higher. Other data shows all causes and flu too. Heavy reading. Seems to be public link, 33,000 now.

[dtknowles]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm


Above is link to CDC certified data. Interesting info, the “expected deaths%” is deaths in the 2020 period compared to average of 3 prior years. I think the number being notably lower than the estimated number is data lag due to review and classification as well as reporting lag from states. New York City has 2 times the number deaths this year period vs average of prior 3, much higher than anywhere else, like 2 times higher. Other data shows all causes and flu too. Heavy reading. Seems to be public link, 33,000 now.

Thanks for the link. Good stuff.

Tim

[dtknowles]

Why is this so hard for people to understand? Those reported numbers aren’t the full sorry. …………… This puts the mortality rate at 0.2%. ………..If you want to self quarantine go ahead. The rest of us are willing to roll the dice and let life play out as normal.

It is wise to be skeptical, especially of numbers. That said, taken with a grain of salt the numbers can be helpful in understanding what is going on.

What do you consider normal and do you really expect to find the old normal anywhere. We are entering a new normal.

If the mortality rate is like your low number of 0.2% and everybody gets infected because we end social distancing before we have a cure or vaccine then over half a million people in the USA would die. The price of herd immunity if it could be achieved by exposure to the virus is half a million Americans. Maybe that is what you are hoping for, survival of the fittest since the virus mostly kills the weak, the old, the sick, minorities, those living in crowded cities and the disadvantaged.

Tim

[popper]

#1 - medical industry is like defense industry, it's about $.
#2 it's an infectious disease. Keep it away and you won't get it! Wear a mask around others so they won't get it from YOU.
#3 cures are about $. Give us $ so we can 'cure' you.
#4 Medical 'staff' is exactly that - staff admin. They are the ones talking and the media regurgitates what they want.
#5 NOBODY paid any attention to info coming out of China and Asian countries when it first started. NOBODY actually took any action until Trump shut down the airline and cruise ships entry! Even though the CDC wrote policy to handle the event (2014) NOBODY was ready.
NOBODY thought to prevent the spread in old folks home, va housing, trains, buses and work spaces. LEAVE it to the FED to solve the problem. How ya liking that?
As she says, can't fix stupid (or greedy).

[dtknowles]

Get this, I went to my Primary Care Dr. today. He told me that the hospital is laying off staff because all they have for patients are COVID patients and a few other ICU patients. We are a COVID hot spot in a hot spot state but we still have many empty beds and laid-off nurses and such. While we are supposedly in a lock-down everything but schools, salons, bars, restaurants, and movie theaters seem to be open. Hardly anyone wears a mask. Pretty much all the restaurants are doing take-out. The line at Canes is out to the highway all the time.

Tim

[elmacgyver0]

The problem with closing packing plants is they buy the animals from the farmers.
When there is no one buying animals the farmers can not afford to feed them.
The farmer end up killing the animals because they can not feed them.
When and if the packing plants open again there will no longer be animals to buy.
A steer or hog does not grow overnight.
So I hope you like ramen noodles because if the plants close you will be eating them for a long time.

[Thundarstick]

Get this, I went to my Primary Care Dr. today. He told me that the hospital is laying off staff because all they have for patients are COVID patients and a few other ICU patients. We are a COVID hot spot in a hot spot state but we still have many empty beds and laid-off nurses and such. While we are supposedly in a lock-down everything but schools, salons, bars, restaurants, and movie theaters seem to be open. Hardly anyone wears a mask. Pretty much all the restaurants are doing take-out. The line at Canes is out to the highway all the time.

Tim

I've been saying hospitals are going bankrupt to anyone that will listen. The small hospital I work at has "furloughed" 20 employees and all other hours have been cut drastically! No one wants to believe it. The news media has people convinced we are over run with covid patents, and it just isn't so!

[dtknowles]

The problem with closing packing plants is they buy the animals from the farmers.
When there is no one buying animals the farmers can not afford to feed them.
The farmer end up killing the animals because they can not feed them.
When and if the packing plants open again there will no longer be animals to buy.
A steer or hog does not grow overnight.
So I hope you like ramen noodles because if the plants close you will be eating them for a long time.

I don't have a problem eating less meat so that meat packing plant workers don't have to work in unsafe working conditions. Only 20% of plants have outbreaks. They should not open until they can either screen workers for the virus or social distance the workers and provide them with masks. My work place is contact tracing, requiring masks and social distancing when possible. Shutting down the plants should have only been a stop gap until better practices could be implemented.

There are farmers and there are pig and chicken factories, and cattle feed lots. I doubt that "real farmers" are killing their livestock. It is not like you have to feed cattle this time of year most places they can graze.

Tim

[Teddy (punchie)]

I've been saying hospitals are going bankrupt to anyone that will listen. The small hospital I work at has "furloughed" 20 employees and all other hours have been cut drastically! No one wants to believe it. The news media has people convinced we are over run with covid patents, and it just isn't so!

I have said it before, county run, state backed. Years ago we had them all and costs were high but not 1/3 of your income; maybe higher for some. My employer is telling me it cost them $17,000 plus for my medical insurance. Out of my own pocket about 500 more. These for profit hospitals are burning us and so is insurance industry. Think about what it costs a small business. We baled hay. I use to hire helpers, paid them well 10.00 cash. As I got more money and a family I started to worry about being sued. There's not enough stable cash flow to sir port carrying insurance. We (family) farmed for well over 40 years lot of young people. We are done baling, cheaper to buy it.

[dtknowles]

If you are sick don't go to work. You are not being forced at gun point. National Guard could fill in vacancies if needed. I agree with the President. Keeping our people fed is kinda important.

They are being threatened with the loss of their unemployment benefits and they don't have sick leave.

Tim

[dtknowles]

So, you accept 40,000 to 50,000 deaths per year, plus 200,000 injuries, from car accidents because at least we're trying to prevent them, even though they still occur? Yet, if we completely banned driving and shut down all the roads, all those lives would be saved. But, you would not accept deaths from a virus that might occur if we open businesses, schools, etc? That makes no sense. And, numbers are science, not politics.

It might be stupid that we accept all those car accidents deaths.

"the reduction of traffic during lockdown has had another pretty obvious side effect: a drastic drop in the number of accidents. In California, where traffic has fallen by between 20% and 55%, there have been around 450 accidents each day, compared to the usual level of 1,128."

People do not use their freedom wisely.

Tim

[dangitgriff]

It’s none of the government’s business how people “use” their freedom. That’s what I take issue with.
There will be lawsuits filed in every state for abuse of power and unconstitutional actions.

[dragon813gt]

If the mortality rate is like your low number of 0.2% and everybody gets infected because we end social distancing before we have a cure or vaccine then over half a million people in the USA would die. The price of herd immunity if it could be achieved by exposure to the virus is half a million Americans. Maybe that is what you are hoping for, survival of the fittest since the virus mostly kills the weak, the old, the sick, minorities, those living in crowded cities and the disadvantaged.

Tim

This is how’s it’s worked since humans have been around. And as bad as it sounds forcing the 99.8% to suffer so the 0.2% “survive” is ridiculous. I don’t want to die. I don’t want anyone I know to die. But I accept death as a fact of life. This is something previous generations knew a lot better than us. You can die at any moment and no one gets out alive.

A vaccine is a pipe dream. Even if they do make one it will be rushed through. There’s a reason vaccines take a decade plus to be approved. Lots of potential long term issues w/ a rushed vaccine. I’m not anti vaccine but I want nothing to do w/ this potential one if it’s rushed through.

All we have done is kicked the proverbial can down the road when it comes to herd immunity. We have potentially killed the economy. At a minimum it’s going to take a long time to recover. And we have hurt almost all hospitals financially. Expect a lot of bankruptcies and mergers. A one size fits all approach was a bad idea and we are going to be living w/ the repercussions for the rest of our lives.

[dangitgriff]

Germany’s economists are estimating at least eight years to recover from the government’s forced shutdown of their economy.
As more data starts flowing in for the 2Q reports, it’s not looking good for us here in the States, either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the new hyper-bubble the Fed is now inflating burst and take the markets even lower than the March bottom.
Say goodbye to your pensions!
R/Griff

[dtknowles]

This is how’s it’s worked since humans have been around. And as bad as it sounds forcing the 99.8% to suffer so the 0.2% “survive” is ridiculous.…...

Is it ridiculous for all of us to suffer some to help a few of us survive? We should not be forced but we should do it voluntarily.

If the government did not force business and schools to close don't you think many of them would have closed anyway. Schools closed before the government order the lockdown.

If you believe that the government does not have the authority to shutdown businesses then I guess you believe the government does not have the authority to force them to stay open either.

Tim

[elmacgyver0]

If everything is shut down and no one is producing food a lot more people will die and not from the virus.
I know!
Let them eat cake!

[dtknowles]

Germany’s economists are estimating at least eight years to recover from the government’s forced shutdown of their economy.
As more data starts flowing in for the 2Q reports, it’s not looking good for us here in the States, either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the new hyper-bubble the Fed is now inflating burst and take the markets even lower than the March bottom.
Say goodbye to your pensions!
R/Griff

I have been predicting a recession since before the declaration of the pandemic. I think we will see at least a 30% drop from here and maybe more. I am almost 100% in cash and gold and have been for more than a year. The pandemic did not cause the recession it just triggered it. The economy was due for a recession.

Regarding a recovery. There will be a recovery and it will be uneven with some sectors never recovering.

My pension will likely be fine for what that is worth. It is from one of the biggest defense contractors on the planet. I say for what it is worth because it is a fix payment and does not adjust with inflation so its real value will decrease pretty quickly especially if inflation ramps up and I think that is a given at this point.

The economy was already in trouble and the pandemic was going to be damaging even if governments did not shut down the economies. China was the first economy to shutdown, it is not like the U.S. made up the shutdown idea. Many countries shutdown before we did. Countries that did not shutdown are not doing all that much better than the U.S. Some countries that shutdown fast and hard are doing better than the U.S.

Tim