Hurricane Dorian is coming to Florida

[DukeInFlorida]

As many of you have likely already heard, a possible CAT 4 hurricane is coming our way here in Florida. Likely to come ashore perhaps Monday night/Tuesday morning. The prediction track and timing keeps changing. Currently, the track has it landing somewhere near the lower east coast of the state, but since the storm is also predicted to hook to the right (North) after making landfall, the entire state (with the exception of the panhandle) is at risk. At 120 miles in diameter, and the radius being 60 miles, and with the whole peninsula only 100 or so miles wide, the storm will affect almost everyone in the state.

We have many CB members living in Florida, including our owner, Robert. I ask for your prayers, positive thoughts, and best wishes for God's good graces to get us safely through this one.

I'm as prepared as I can be. And, I even have a plan B to get to a buddy's home an hour west of here, if they announce a mandatory evacuation. I'm only 1.5 miles from the coast, just south of Daytona Beach. I'm not sure how the next few days will go, internet will likely be down. I'd ask that those of you who are in Florida check in here, and let us all know that you are safe. If anyone close to me needs any assistance prepping for the last minute, let me know. I'd be happy to do what I can. God speed.

[Winger Ed.]

Good luck and stay safe.

With the wind headed your way, don't forget to nail down the dog.

[JBinMN]

Best wishes & prayers!

Be smart & do what is right to keep yourselves safe!

"Things" mean nothing, Survival & being safe does mean everything..

[Wayne Smith]

Less important than mileage from the coast is altitude. How many feet above mean sea level are you? Here at 23 ft above we are out of all the hurricane evacuation zones.

[Three44s]

God bless and prayers sent to all folks in Florida and with the unpredictability that seems to be an issue with this strengthing storm, the folks in Georgia as well.

Three44s

[Finster101]

Duke, you east coast boys be careful over there. So far the track shows my locale getting wind and rain but nothing too severe. I have lived here since before Andrew and have not left my home yet. I guess that will continue with Dorian. It's still a ways away. Going to Mom's in the morning to bring a few things inside so she feels better but she will probably end up staying with us for a couple of days. She is only about 20 minutes away so no real big deal. I think the lead up is sometimes almost as bad as the storm. Very little gas to be had here. Stupid things like bread and milk almost bare on the shelves. Lucky for me pork butt is on sale for $1.99, bought two. They will be smoking come early morning. Stay safe. I wish everyone the best of luck.

James

[WheelgunConvert]

Take a bunch of pictures of as much as you can and get them in the cloud for safe recovery. It’s a game changer when filing claims and losses.

Stay armed and stick to your action benchmarks for muster and evac.

Godspeed and good luck brothers

[popper]

You guys stay safe. SIL is recovering from cancer treatements in Palm Coast, they are staying this time.

[Tom W.]

I have a buddy who lives in Palm Coast. I told him to pack up and head here, but he's not sure if he wants to leave his house. It looks like the hurricane will go right up I 95 N. At least at last report. A cat 4 isn't anything to play with, and staying in the house ain't gonna help it hold together any better...I dunno what he's going to do.....

Y'all stay safe, whatever your choice is!

[shaper]

I was raised in central Florida, sat through a lot of hurricanes. scared to death with each of them. If you do have to evacuate , forget the interstate , find Hwy 27 , it will take you to the west side of the state. it is a seldom used 4 lane that will take you strait north. ad get you to safety.
stay safe friend.

[Wis Tom]

Prayers to all in harms way. I have only lived in Wis., my whole life, and have to deal with tornadoes and bad weather, where you get a couple of hours, if that, warning. I would think I would be exhausted by the time the hurricane got there, with worry, with this much time, as I tend to overthink, everything. Be safe.

[jonp]

Daughter is stationed in Gainesville. She decided to go up to Ft. Benning and ride out the rain there.

Hope all in Fl stay safe but i'll say this. I'm pretty sick of the week long non-stop "your all gonna die" hysteria every storm induces in the media. The fools clearing out the shelves of water get me, too. You have hurricane season every year. Buy some darn provisions and keep them handy. Keep your vehicle(s) topped off with gas. Have some food handy at all time including canned. Those buckets of dehydrated food that last 25yrs are very nice as emergency stuff.

When we get a storm predicted and people ask us what we are doing our answer is "not much, maybe clean the gutters"

https://www.lifestraw.com/products/lifestraw Keeping water on hand is good. These, though, are a great thing to have. We also have the water bottles. One straw will filter enough water for 4 or 5 years for one person and fit in your pocket. If the water is half-way clear you can drink right out of a mud puddle.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07FPHCWCV/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1 I bought one of these solar charges a few months ago and used it for 2 straight weeks at my camp. Powered my phones and kindles with no problem. Folds up in a small package, too.

https://www.amazon.com/ProTeam-Chlorine-Pure-Tabs-lb/dp/B008DZOUJG Do your research on this and get the right stuff. One bucket of tabs of the right one (this is just a picture of what I am talking about, I don't have this type) will purify millions of gallons of water with chlorine. You can buy individual tabs in foil packs at WalMart. This will make bleach for disinfectant and also give you water to drink. Just make sure nothing else is in it like algicides, coloring etc. DO YOUR HOMEWORK BEFORE BUYING AND USING

[jonp]

Take a bunch of pictures of as much as you can and get them in the cloud for safe recovery. It’s a game changer when filing claims and losses.

Stay armed and stick to your action benchmarks for muster and evac.

Godspeed and good luck brothers

Very Good Advice.

Also make sure your insurance is up to date, you have a correct list of valuables and serial numbers of all firearms. I have foam lined waterproof travel cases for all my handguns. Makes it easy to throw them in the car or truck for transport. They would be good for other things, too

[GhostHawk]

Get High and DRY I think this could be a bad one.

Will be praying for you all down there.

[Petrol & Powder]

Having lived in Florida many years ago I can say the hype is sometimes worse than the reality.

There's really no "high ground" in south Florida, it's about as flat as it can be, but if you're inland enough the storm surge will not be a danger.
Wind is the threat inland but if your house is well built, you can ride it out. The massive destruction seen after Hurricane Andrew was more due to the lax building codes and shoddy construction than the intensity of the storm (although Andrew was a massive cat 5 when it made landfall). Florida learned their lesson after Andrew and building codes were changed, stronger designs became more prevalent and people generally have more respect for the power of storms.

If you live where the storm surge or flooding is a possibility - GET OUT while you can. If you live in a structure that cannot withstand the wind - GET OUT while you can.

If you live in a strong house that can survive the wind and is unlikely to be affected by the storm surge, you can prepare and ride it out.

Hurricanes are common in the southeastern U.S., this isn't our first rodeo.

[Land Owner]

Hour to hour tracking. Hitting E. of Central FL, S. of Central FL, now skirting the coast. Only time will tell and the media's non-stop h***, fire, and brimstone doesn't help. This year's "crop" of FB memes are quite good and break the tension (representative sample):

https://i.imgur.com/lK3hx2A.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/IB1Er1E.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/wIDX7uZ.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/WobaCPQ.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/in9ZCz2.jpg

[Wis Tom]

It looks like, for now, that it has turned north, and maybe heading up the coast.

[lightman]

Prayers for everyone in the path of this storm. You'all batten down the hatches! Good Luck!

[Love Life]

Went and bought extra smokes and beer.

[DukeInFlorida]

I'm a whopping 45 feet above normal sea level. No flooding with any of the previous storms, so not expecting flooding this time. I have my home pretty well battened down this time (every time), so the only worry is from flying objects (neighbor's roofs, etc).

I'm half way between I 95 and the ocean, with the Intercoastal being a mile from here. So, I especially liked the meme with the spaghetti lines (we're rooting for you, little buddy). Thanks for posting that.

Time will tell how it's gonna go. I'm ready for all eventualities. Good luck to everyone in harms way.

[dangitgriff]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190831/31622cb9efafd0ce9267f1e59ee3495c.jpg

[Finster101]

Well, looking like we might dodge the boolet on this one. Let's hope for that "right turn Clyde" .

[gwpercle]

Another hurricane season and more hurricanes !
I was trying to remember some of the ones I've actually rode out , been near or had direct experiences with .... a few more than I thought .

1957 Audrey . Dead cows in the trees 20' off the ground . The storm surge wiped everything except two buildings in Cameron La. off the map. The smell from all the drowned cattle has never left my memory .

1965 Betsy . Came up the Mississippi River, through New Orleans and then to Baton Rouge . We went out during the eye... the sound of total silence after hours of howling winds was unreal .

1969 Camile . I was working in Waveland Miss . , went home to Baton Rouge to my parents house .
The Miss. Gulf Coast and Waveland were decimated by the tidal surges . Boats were in the trees , ships and barges were miles inland . Bad killer storm .

1992 Andrew . Rode it out in Baton Rouge . Not bad .

2005 Katrina . Rode it out in Baton Rouge with wife and her family from New Orleans . This was a big bad storm too .
New Orleans hit hard when a barge caused levees to break . Lots of flood damage ...to this day you can still see it .

2005 Rita . Not too bad , hit just to our west as cat 3 and quickly lost steam , Baton Rouge is 90 miles inland ....But still another hurricane right after Katrina's cat 5...yowzer !

2008 Gustave . This one was a bad one for Baton Rouge, it had been dry , the big oak trees were stressed and when Gustave hit the number of trees that fell was unreal . Cut limbs and tree trunks would be stacked 12 feet high on each side of the streets .
I live near a street named Hundred Oaks , the street sign was gone , someone made a temporary sign for the crews to get around...Hundred had been crossed out and Two was written in its place, it sure seemed as every oak tree in town had been uprooted ...that many fallen trees was also a strange sight to see . Disposal of the tree waste and getting power restored took a long time !!!

2008 Ike ...Right after Gustave and its destruction here comes Ike ! We got lucky and it tracked west to Galveston Texas , no damage but a lot of scare.

2012 Isaac . Came in as a cat 1 , was a lot of rain and wind by the time it got inland...no damage .

2019 Barry , Got lucky again , made landfall as a cat 1 , weakened to a tropical depression and all we got was a little wind and a little rain....no biggie .

I've had enough hurricanes , if I never experience another that's fine .

What I've learned cat 1 to cat 3 .... hunker down
Cat. 4 and especially Cat 5...... leave, get outta dodge , pack up and go somewhere else .
Coastal areas and Cat 4-5 hurricanes are Dangerous , do not stay .
Nothing can stop a 20' wall of water...they may be able to control Global Warming but "They" ain't stopping no hurricane tidal surge or wind speeds of 175 mph ...no way shape or form .
I'm not sure "they" can do anything about the earth's warming and cooling cycles like "they" claim they can .
Gary

[woodbutcher]

:cry: Every time I see forecasts like now for Fl,it just yanks my pucker string.Born and raised in Vero Beach,Fl and lived there from 1945 to 1985.Family has lived there since 1916.Yep we`ve seen more than our share.Wishing all in the path the very best for a safe outcome.God bless all.
Leo

[jonp]

Looks like all of the storm tracks taking it straight across Florida that we've been beat over the head with for the last week are most likely not correct. Latest projection is for it to swing north and follow the coast up through North Carolina as a Cat 1 staying just offshore the entire time. Still not good but not the destruction of a Cat 4 going straight across into the Gulf. Probably.

[Finster101]

Looks like all of the storm tracks taking it straight across Florida that we've been beat over the head with for the last week are most likely not correct. Latest projection is for it to swing north and follow the coast up through North Carolina as a Cat 1 staying just offshore the entire time. Still not good but not the destruction of a Cat 4 going straight across into the Gulf. Probably.


The problem the weather people have is they are darned if the do and darned if they don't with the storm track. It's the local and national media that really like to stir it up in to a frenzy.

[Hickory]

Ohio don't have any hurricanes, what we do have is something more concentrated and short lived without a lot of rain, we have tornados.
Tornados can be worse or not as bad as a hurricane, it depends on if you get hit or not.
To me, living in Florida is like being a homeless person who gets beat up almost every weekend buy a drunken bum who you don't even know.

[jonp]

The problem the weather people have is they are darned if the do and darned if they don't with the storm track. It's the local and national media that really like to stir it up in to a frenzy.

I think you are absolutely correct in this.

In any case in the legendary words of Shep Smith "Your all going to die...and your kids are going to die, too"

[Shawlerbrook]

Be safe and prepared no matter what the “experts” say. Wish some of the rain would make it up to Central NYS ( been very dry) but looks to make a hard right at N.C.

[dangitgriff]

Ohio don't have any hurricanes, what we do have is something more concentrated and short lived without a lot of rain, we have tornados.
Tornados can be worse or not as bad as a hurricane, it depends on if you get hit or not.
To me, living in Florida is like being a homeless person who gets beat up almost every weekend buy a drunken bum who you don't even know.

Don’t forget the Grassman. Ohio has those as well.
We have Cubans, yankees and lot lizards down here in Florida. Very bad situation. I’ll take a hurricane any day!
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190901/6e6f81104a5f0289166d668e95121fc8.jpg

[jsizemore]

Don’t forget the Grassman. Ohio has those as well.
We have Cubans, yankees and lot lizards down here in Florida. Very bad situation. I’ll take a hurricane any day!
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190901/6e6f81104a5f0289166d668e95121fc8.jpg

This and the heat are the reason I left Fla. Hurricane would leave when it was done. The others acted like they were at home.

[RogerDat]

The problem the weather people have is they are darned if the do and darned if they don't with the storm track. It's the local and national media that really like to stir it up in to a frenzy. My new weatherman hero is Al Roker. "It could get to a category 4 by when it reaches landfall, or could get weaker. We just don't know." Honest that eh?

I guess if you send a whole crew to the state and it turns out they were just covering a hard rainstorm it could be embarrassing. Yes the hype and drama aspect of reporting annoys those of us who grew up with news that was based on just the 5 W's. If it is a hurricane only an idiot would go out in it to be on camera, if it isn't a hurricane why are you standing in the rain?

I live in Michigan, on a well, have a generator and I still have the water containers I could fill and store. What is it about the little clear plastic water bottles? Are they some sort of religious talisman? Because I just don't get it. Couple of 6 gallon water "jerry" cans are cheap and reusable. Not like this is the last hurricane gonna visit the area. Collapsible 5 gallon water cubes are like maybe $10 so I have to wonder do folks not value the time they spend standing in line?

Even 2 liter soda pop bottles are good refillable water containers. Having a couple of weeks worth of canned goods on hand is cheap and easy and you can eat those as you go and replace in your weekly shopping.

I have a friend in the area but inland. Asked him what he was doing to get ready. He said moved the vehicles all into the garage. He already keeps a few fuel cans full, supplies on hand and has wood for the big windows already cut and stored. Seems reasonable to me. We don't head up north without bug spray in skeeter season because, well you know what you need to stay comfortable so you just do it.

Still without flooding you wouldn't get to see reporter broadcasting from a boat as two guys in waders walk by sort of spoiling the illusion of massive flooding. Humor is where you find it.

[Markopolo]

prayers sent that the thing would hook up and spin out into the ocean!!!!

[Finster101]

I'm in pretty good shape here. Not on the water. I have been here long enough that when we built this house 3 years ago hurricane windows, doors and a 22kw standby generator with a buried propane tank were nonnegotiable items. We also opted for a gas stove, dryer and water heater. That eliminated any need for load shedding on the generator. It has already paid for itself with Irma. No power for 10 days. The only difference in our life was hearing the hum of the generator.

[kens]

the newest update from NHC.NOAA comes out at 11am.
they already called the baro pressure down to 27.23, thats pretty intense.
Bahamas is gonna get flattened.

edit:
I just looked in the hurricane archives,
a baro pressure of 27.23 is tied with the 4th lowest pressure ever recorded.
Andrew hit with a 27.23 baro

[dangitgriff]

I'm in pretty good shape here. Not on the water. I have been here long enough that when we built this house 3 years ago hurricane windows, doors and a 22kw standby generator with a buried propane tank were nonnegotiable items. We also opted for a gas stove, dryer and water heater. That eliminated any need for load shedding on the generator. It has already paid for itself with Irma. No power for 10 days. The only difference in our life was hearing the hum of the generator.

That’s the plan for our new house, as well, when we rebuild here in the Keys. Except we will be 8 feet above ground and 12 feet above mean sea level. Big Pine Key saw 5-8 feet above ground level (9-12 feet AMSL) when Irma rolled through.

[jonp]

the newest update from NHC.NOAA comes out at 11am.
they already called the baro pressure down to 27.23, thats pretty intense.
Bahamas is gonna get flattened.

edit:
I just looked in the hurricane archives,
a baro pressure of 27.23 is tied with the 4th lowest pressure ever recorded.
Andrew hit with a 27.23 baro

I just saw a reading of 913mb or 26.96 in. It has a ways to go before matching the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 @ 892mb not to mention Wilma @ 882mb

[kens]

I just saw a reading of 913mb or 26.96 in

if you go thru the archives, that is the 3rd lowest ever recorded, ever.......

[shdwlkr]

I have a daughter in the area just below Orlando the high point in that part of the state. I worry more about a granddaughter in the the coast guard in Miami going to be a busy time for those folks. Prayers that all in Florida make it through this one

[JBinMN]

I just saw a reading of 913mb or 26.96 in. It has a ways to go before matching the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 @ 892mb not to mention Wilma @ 882mb


if you go thru the archives, that is the 3rd lowest ever recorded, ever.......

Here is a link to the latest at 1100 EDT:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/301754.shtml

Be safe!

[jonp]

Dang! Down to 911mb. Bet it drops some more. What a storm. Company has 25 or so trailers down towards Wilmington. Bet we start pulling them to high ground Tues like we did the last hurricane. I was the last man out and first back in that time. Bet I get the honor again

[Hickory]

Just talked to my sister who lives in Jacksonville, Florida and she said there's a little wind and rain, but tomorrow will tell the true story.
This isn't her first hurricane.

[Finster101]

Just talked to my sister who lives in Jacksonville, Florida and she said there's a little wind and rain, but tomorrow will tell the true story.
This isn't her first hurricane.

Yep! The turn is SUPPOSED to happen tonight. If everything in my life had gone the way it was supposed to...….well

[Land Owner]

Hunkering down on the mainland 15.75 miles due west of the Cape of Florida. There are two barrier islands and two water bodies from the neighborhood to the ocean shoreline. Shuttering windows and doors this morning. Have hurricane snacks and promise not to eat them too soon. The further out to sea the eye remains will be the Tale of the Tape for wind damage on the mainland. Just downgraded to Cat 4 is a good trend. Eyewall restructuring is an indication of weakening too. Flooding is not a risk for this neighborhood. Will report conditions periodically for as long as power is on.


https://i.postimg.cc/XvcM3zdm/13.jpg

[Finster101]

Good luck to you. I know it ain't no fun. On a side note; I wonder how many "Pine Island"s there are in the state of Florida?

[MrWolf]

Good luck to you. I know it ain't no fun. On a side note; I wonder how many "Pine Island"s there are in the state of Florida?

Never though of that. I sold my place on Pine Island a few years back when my divorce started. My Pine Island was on west coast just above Sanibal island (sp)?

[gpidaho]

One of my girls lives in South Daytona. Hoping for the best. Storm shutters are up. I don't think they are leaving. It's a whole different spot than here in Idaho. Gp

[Denver]

I have 2 daughters and their families in SW Florida (Naples). Praying for the storm to make a turn North or weaken before making landfall.

D

[Love Life]

Dorian gave the Bahamas the biznass.

[jsizemore]

5pm and Dorian is parked in the North bay of Grand Bahama. Started at Cat 5 and now 4. All day at 140 mph winds.

[snowwolfe]

The one "good" thing about a hurricane is you have plenty of notice it is coming. You can board up, stock supplies, or evacuate if necessary. Even a tornado can offer some warning. An earthquake on the other hand comes out of no where and can smash buildings and fell trees and powerlines within minutes.

[Land Owner]

@Finster101 & @ Mr. Wolf...there is a Pine Island on Merritt Island (E. Central FL). That is the only other of which I know.

@Denver...Naples (on the opposite side of the state) "should be" fine this time if the modeling track is adhered to by the storm, which seems to have a mind of its own.

https://www.noaa.gov/stories/4-hurri...-state-in-2004


4 hurricanes in 6 weeks? It happened to one state in 2004.

August 26, 2019

Florida, officially known as the “Sunshine State,” was dubbed the “Plywood State” by media after it was battered by four hurricanes in only six weeks during the 2004 hurricane season. Nearly every square inch of Florida felt the impacts from at least one of those four storms.

NOAA’s 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook called for an active hurricane season, and it was – 15 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes – Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne – took aim at Florida in quick succession. Each one was different, yet each served as a reminder of what these storms can bring to those living or vacationing in hurricane-prone areas.
Been here and done that. Now Dorian.

Will there be anything left of the Grand Bahama Island? Dorian STALLED and has churned there for MORE than 30 hours at a wind speed OVER 140 mph (down slightly from 185 mph) with gusts at its height over 220 mph. Someone there REALLY pissed off God. This storm's fury is unimaginable...pray for the inhabitants there. They have had enough. Coast Guard is "on the ground" there. I thought it was inundated by storm surge and there wasn't much, if any, ground left.

[kens]

@Finster101 & @ Mr. Wolf...there is a Pine Island on Merritt Island (E. Central FL). That is the only other of which I know.

@Denver...Naples (on the opposite side of the state) "should be" fine this time if the modeling track is adhered to by the storm, which seems to have a mind of its own.

https://www.noaa.gov/stories/4-hurri...-state-in-2004



Will there be anything left of the Grand Bahama Island? Dorian STALLED and has churned there for MORE than 30 hours at a wind speed OVER 140 mph (down slightly from 185 mph) with gusts at its height over 220 mph. Someone there REALLY pissed off God. This storm's fury is unimaginable...pray for the inhabitants there. They have had enough. Coast Guard is "on the ground" there. I thought it was inundated by storm surge and there wasn't much, if any, ground left.

I dont think they really got 140mph winds tho.
The hurricane hunter aircraft measure winds aloft, then they take that number and run with it. that wind speed aloft is not that on the ground.
The weather station on the ground, on west end point never saw actual hurricane force winds, and it is only 15 mile from the so-called 'Cat-5 eye'
Keep in mind that IF they actually had 150mph winds, there would be nothing left, no plants, no trees, no buildings, not even remnant of concrete structures.
I saw a few photo from social media that looked like a mullet shack with the roof tore up, just like a run of the mill hurricane, maybe a Cat-1.
The big problem for Bahamas is time and high water. That storm is spending so much time in one place, it going to tear it up very bad.
May God help them.

[JBinMN]

As a crewchief, I have traveled in a CH46E helicopter at over 150 MPH & with the crew door open, an M60 sticking out an open window on the port side & an M2 on the starboard side with an open window and the cargo hatch in the rear opened & there was no issues with sticking your hand or helmeted head & your shoulders out of the upper half of the crew door. I did it on more than one occasion.



Boeing Vertol CH-46 Sea Knight

Performance

Maximum speed: 144 kn (166 mph, 267 km/h) at sea level
Cruise speed: 143 kn (165 mph, 265 km/h) maximum at sea level

I am in disbelief with a statement that winds of that speed would make everything go away down to bare earth. I don't think so.

I am not arguing, just stating actual personal experience.

I have been thru a couple of hurricanes when I was on the East coast(N & S Carolinas coast - MCAS New River & MCRD PI), and I know it was a helluva experience, so I do have a little bit of personal experience with that as well. I think you are a bit off on the description of the winds effect on objects, that you may want to reconsider in your thinking.
;)

[Wis Tom]

This has forgotten it's way. Amazing that it just quit moving. At least it is weakening as it sits. I guess that is good for Florida and the east coast, I think?

[dangitgriff]

Category 5 into Babamas...
Category 2 out.
Yeah, I’ll take it.

[2wheelDuke]

We dodged a huge bullet down our way. The Bahamas really got it bad. Local Coast Guard units are over there helping with rescue efforts. There's tons of local relief efforts underway. Hopefully they're able to receive it soon, because they don't have much of anything left.

[DukeInFlorida]

Hurricane passed 100 miles offshore. No water or wind damage. All is well here.