Guessing Game- Everyone is Invited

[lightman]

Me and Biggin just finished smelting our latest lead haul and thought that we would celebrate by hosting a contest. Pictured below is Biggin's cut of the wheel weight ingots. Guess the number of ingots and win a prize!

https://i.imgur.com/gF9NGHK.jpg?1

Simply guess the number of ingots in the pile and post your guess in this thread. We'll run this until next Sunday Night, February 18th at 8:00 PM Central Standard Time. Thats our local time. The prize is a small flat rate box of ingots, postage paid, to any place that USPS Flat Rates ship to. You can choose either clip on weights or stick on weights. In the event of a tie, both contestants will get a box. Good Luck!

A clue; The pile of ingots is sitting on a standard 48 inch pallet on a 4 X 4 ft sheet of plywood and the top of the pile is 22 inches above the plywood.

[Steppapajon]

716
spj

[frkelly74]

997......

[Skunk1]

Lol, great game. I’ll give a go.

1663

[brewer12345]

2147 or so.

[Scott_In_OKC]

1751

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[Traffer]

2341....What did I win?

[KMac]

492...

[chutesnreloads]

1441....?

[sandman228]

I'm guessing 1205

[Pmg]

1851...

[MUSTANG]

I estimate 3972

[slim1836]

2550

Slim

[poppy42]

2750.....

[tigweldit]

I guess 1273.

[Reddirt62]

1202

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[NyFirefighter357]

My guess is 828

[ascast]

2106 total

[WebMonkey]

1436 is my guess

[Ateam]

901 message too short lengthen by five characters

[M-Tecs]

2819.....

[gtgeorge]

I'll play, 4826 is my WAg

[Skunk1]

Does my daughter get a guess? She just spent 15 minutes counting and came up with 1736. She probably came closer than me.

[Smoke4320]

All of them there i win :) :)
2977

[Michael J. Spangler]

1421
Awesome pic!

[Blanket]

1812 good number

[Tom W.]

2283... sounds good to me....

[rdwarrior]

My guess is 4592

[lightman]

Does my daughter get a guess? She just spent 15 minutes counting and came up with 1736. She probably came closer than me.
Ha Ha! She is more than welcome to play!

[Minerat]

1776 is my guess.

[MR45]

1378 bars

[autopilotmp]

1843 I was told there would be no math

[pete501]

3394 Exactly

[rancher1913]

my guess--------2000, just cause it looks like a ton.

[bbogue1]

My best guess based on the possible volume and that some are one size and some are another is 2787

[472x1B/A]

I'll say 1446

[Rooster]

2863 is my guess.

[BNE]

2557.

[coloraydo]

I'll guess 5140.

[D Crockett]

I am going to guess at 3000 that is what it looks like to me D Crockett

[MaryB]

3,100 after edit

[Lefty bullseye shooter]

3127 .

[Bodean98]

How about 4855???

[Omega]

3145 would be my guess, but no matter the #, that's a ton of lead!

[NikA]

I'd like to play; my guess is 3700.

[CastingFool]

my swag is 3200 ingots

[Jniedbalski]

1872 am I close

[Hickory]

1187 is my guess.

[Adam20]

3140 my guess

[jeepyj]

2342 ingots is my guess. Excellent fun, thank you - Tim

[OS OK]

1,940 of those little buggers...

[merlin101]

1372 Just a wild --- guess

[Mitch]

1198
great game

[PonchoHobbes]

1340 is my guess...

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[melloairman]

What a pile 4425

[trails4u]

I'm going with 2295.

[AZBronco]

555 ingots

[Hossfly]

Doing some math and looking like 2850 ingots just saying.

[OldBearHair]

996 ingots in that stack!

[35whelenshooter]

2200 ingots on the plywood

[Dpmsman]

I'm in with 776

[WILCO]

1776 is my guess.

Dang! Good thing I read this far.

Since I love the Spanish Mauser, my official guess is 1893.

[Rcmaveric]

4,224 ingots

[NyFirefighter357]

My daughter says 1,169

[John D]

I'll play.. 1776 in my guess

[modified5]

I'm shooting for 1854...
Thanks for the game!

[oneofsix]

2325

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[WJP]

4191.

[WILCO]

I'll play.. 1776 in my guess

Already taken.

[lightman]

Already taken.

In the original post I stated that in the event of a tie both parties get a prize. I see no reason that multiple posters can't guess the same number.

[WILCO]

It's your world, I'm just swimming in it. :)

[lightman]

My best guess based on the possible volume and that some are one size and some are another is 2787

These were all cast from ingot molds that throw a nominal 1# ingot. While the volume of fill is not exact, they should be close. Possibly what you are seeing is that the bottoms and tops are not all turned the same direction. The tops are slightly wider than the bottom.

[wcp4570]

5600 is my guess

[lightman]

It's your world, I'm just swimming in it. :)

No problem Wilco, just trying to be as fair as possible. Now, if 50 members pick the same winning number thats seriously gonna get into Biggins stash! :cry:

[Bzcraig]

1492 cause that was important to a dude named Columbus.

[40-82 hiker]

I'm guessing 1650 and sticking to it. Unless I'm wrong... :veryconfu

[Bmp4510]

Me and Biggin just finished smelting our latest lead haul and thought that we would celebrate by hosting a contest. Pictured below is Biggin's cut of the wheel weight ingots. Guess the number of ingots and win a prize!

https://i.imgur.com/gF9NGHK.jpg?1

Simply guess the number of ingots in the pile and post your guess in this thread. We'll run this until next Sunday Night, February 18th at 8:00 PM Central Standard Time. Thats our local time. The prize is a small flat rate box of ingots, postage paid, to any place that USPS Flat Rates ship to. You can choose either clip on weights or stick on weights. In the event of a tie, both contestants will get a box. Good Luck!

A clue; The pile of ingots is sitting on a standard 48 inch pallet on a 4 X 4 ft sheet of plywood and the top of the pile is 22 inches above the plywood.

My guess is 1911


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[DGV]

1056 guess

[therealhitman]

I'll take 1894... a very good year.

[Bird]

2368 or there about.

[Crash_Corrigan]

Per my miscalculatin' there should be 2117 little bars.

Crash Corrigan

[Box13]

1309 ingots

[Traffer]

2342 ingots is my guess. Excellent fun, thank you - Tim

hey, I guessed 2341!

[sledgehammer001]

I'm going with 847. That's like window shopping for gun stuff!

[Point-Man]

I`ll go with 1,500

[JBinMN]

2200 is as close as I got by counting. Had to start over 3 times & then check to make sure I did not take someone elses count.
;)

LOL

Cool contest too! Thanks for the chance to win!
:)

[maxreloader]

2760 ingots on the pallet

[Cleatus]

770, but might be off by 1 or 2 ;)

[CASTER OF LEAD]

I guess there to be 1682 ingots in the picture.

[lightman]

Good guesses Guys! Keep them coming.

[Bookworm]

1960 is my guess, completely unencumbered by the thought process.

[sundog]

Two thousand nine hundred seventy one - 2,971

[imashooter2]

3216 ingots.

[desiko]

1885 ingots

[brass410]

more than I could lift when I was 20 yrs old, and certainly more than I'm gonna lift now that I'm not, probably 1822 give or take.

[Dusty Bannister]

I may as well get in this for 4,840 ingots if we are just guessing.
Dusty

[Wizwheel]

880
mj

[PhantomRider64]

3128,,,my guess.

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[William Yanda]

4,500 ingots=2 1/4 TONS

[jdfoxinc]

1280 +-.

[WardT]

1830 or 31 what ever it takes

[Ianagos]

I’d say maybe 2500. Just because I feel like you finish it off at an even number.

[marek313]

Lets see - 1477

[lightman]

I’d say maybe 2500. Just because I feel like you finish it off at an even number.

We did not have any numbers in mind, we just smelted everything that we had.

[jessdigs]

1373 is my guess


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[Ianagos]

We did not have any numbers in mind, we just smelted everything that we had.

Ah then I say 2317

[kevin c]

2212 is my guess.

[uncle joe]

4070


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[dondiego]

897 nuggets of fun!

[sukivel]

667


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[Skooterr]

2268..........

[LenH]

I am going with 2850.

[Wayne R. Scott]

1764 Shall be my guess.

[wyofool]

6760 give or take

[John Boy]

Has the actual ingot count been certified by the accounting firm of Price, Waterhouse & Coopers, CPA's? :popcorn:

[Biggin]

Has the actual ingot count been certified by the accounting firm of Price, Waterhouse & Coopers, CPA's? :popcorn:

No just a retired lineman and one that wishes he was!!!

[JMax]

2387 is my guess

[dirk]

Right at 913

[maggnutt]

5360 is my guess.

[lightman]

No just a retired lineman and one that wishes he was!!!

Yup, a Redneck and a Hillbilly!

[Dirtjumper895]

2518 dirtjumper895

[Joby]

1654 ingots.

[Cowboy_Dan]

Let's try a guess of 3250.

[Lloyd Smale]

3762 for a shot at it.

[Electric88]

I'll guess 1204

[lightman]

Wow, 7 pages, 124 replys and 1300+ views! Thanks for the response everyone! There are some really good guesses here. I hope those of you that posted about counting ingots from the picture were kidding! Keep them coming!

[flyer1]

1213 for the win

[pmer]

I'll guess at 4299 since Biggins was a good worker you were going to throw in a couple extra handfuls. But on the last day he partied the night before and was draggin around pretty bad so he got 4311.

[lightman]

I'll guess at 4299 since Biggins was a good worker you were going to throw in a couple extra handfuls. But on the last day he partied the night before and was draggin around pretty bad so he got 4311.

:razz: Dang, didn't know that you knew Biggin! :razz: That ladle work wears me out and he did do all of it, while I did the dumping and stacking. I like having young strong friends!

[Chill Wills]

1877

Math is our friend :razz:

[DxieLandMan]

2350 ingots

[retread]

1791 ingots

[Sawdust]

2824

V=x²h/3 (in³)
d=0.398 (lb/in³)
Θ=π/6
Φ=sinΘ

ß=V*d*Φ-1

[Chill Wills]

2824

V=x²h/3 (in³)
d=0.398 (lb/in³)
Θ=π/6
Φ=sinΘ

ß=V*d*Φ-1

d=0.398 (lb/in³) ?

You put that a lot higher than I did. Good Luck:bigsmyl2:

[Diadem]

My guess is 932

[OS OK]

2824

V=x²h/3 (in³)
d=0.398 (lb/in³)
Θ=π/6
Φ=sinΘ

ß=V*d*Φ-1

This post is a good example of what started me daydreaming in school...seeing all this GREEK on the chalkboard ;-)

[Sawdust]

d=density of wheel weights. (Pb/Sn/Sb = 95.5/0.5/4.0)

Was just following your idea that math is our friend.:razz:

[Sawdust]

This post is a good example of what started me daydreaming in school...seeing all this GREEK on the chalkboard ;-)

Just having a little fun with it:smile:

[Traffer]

d=0.398 (lb/in³) ?

You put that a lot higher than I did. Good Luck:bigsmyl2:

Wow Math is cool. I wish I would have learned more than adding and multiplying in school. Or remembered more than adding and multiplying.:razz:

[Baja_Traveler]

My Guess is 3,450

[KenT7021]

1968 is my guess.

[SNDBGGR1484]

My guess is 5927

[stubshaft]

883...

[Chill Wills]

d=density of wheel weights. (Pb/Sn/Sb = 95.5/0.5/4.0)

Was just following your idea that math is our friend.:razz:

10-4 on that!
Where we part is, I am (guessing) multiplying a factor for void space.
A little fun on a snowy Tuesday[smilie=p:

[vernm]

4,537 exactly

[rmark]

clearly it's 1200

[Sawdust]

10-4 on that!
Where we part is, I am (guessing) multiplying a factor for void space.

I also took a wild a$$ guess at the void space factor I used. I could probably get closer just throwing darts at a dart board.:oops:

[OS OK]

Just having a little fun with it:smile:


d=density of wheel weights. (Pb/Sn/Sb = 95.5/0.5/4.0)

Was just following your idea that math is our friend.:razz:

Me too...actually I really enjoyed the math, especially Geometry...3D math to me.


Somebody mentioned 'void space'...I took that into consideration and used 40% when I did a volumetric/weight computation...I wonder what percentages you other fellas used?

[Sawdust]

Me too...actually I really enjoyed the math, especially Geometry...3D math to me.


Somebody mentioned 'void space'...I took that into consideration and used 40% when I did a volumetric/weight computation...I wonder what percentages you other fellas used?

50%..

[LeroyvdH]

1337
Can't win I'm Canadian... But I want to play along..
Nice gesture and some fun..
Thanks Leroy

[skeettx]

2121
Mike

[rockrat]

1515 ingots

[Brassduck]

1551ingots

[MaryB]

Area of pyramid x weight of lead per square foot x 50% fudge factor for spaces...

[triggerhappy243]

2789 is my guess.

[43PU]

I’m gonna say 1889

[craneman]

Im guessing 2872!

[EDG]

1370 looks good

[Teemu]

Hmm.. 2870

[Mark2215]

2913 is my guess

[FredBuddy]

2222 for me.

[uncle joe]

50%..I used 70% solid


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[RGrosz]

Just got back to work and the interweb. My guess will be 1908, sorry if someone guessed it already didn't read through 162 guesses.
Rob

[lwknight]

Looks like 1680 pounds so I'm guessing 1598 ingots.

[Flailguy]

997 ingots

[glockfan]

3267 .that must be it lol.

[lightman]

1337
Can't win I'm Canadian... But I want to play along..
Nice gesture and some fun..
Thanks Leroy

I apologize for leaving you guys out. Thanks for understanding. I wish shipping between our two countries was more affordable.

[LeroyvdH]

I don't even want to think what that would cost.
Leroy

[ghh3rd]

A whole bunch times 2

[starnbar]

I will go with 1157

[guje55]

24445


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[etherwalker]

5000

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[Yodogsandman]

My guess 1257

[BigBore45]

2835....

[RAK2018]

My guess is 3284

[MyFlatline]

2309 is my WAG

[lightman]

I'm overwhelmed by the response to this! Thanks to everyone for participating! I really like the ones where the Daughters are able to get involved! Perhaps running it for a full week was a little long but I wanted everyone to have the opportunity to read it. Keep the guesses coming and Good Luck!

[djgoings]

559 bars

[Rich22]

going to try 3439

[Djones]

2968 ingots is my guess

[alfloyd]

1576
That is my guess.

Lafaun

[Lloyd Smale]

so when are we going to here the answer????

[lightman]

The game will time out at 8:00 PM Central Standard Time this Sunday night. I'll announce the winner as soon after 8:00 as I can review everyones guesses.

[fast ronnie]

842 Might as well join the club!

[beechbum444]

2337 ingots

[woodbutcher]

[smilie=s: 2501
Good luck.Have fun.Be safe.
Leo

[Tritium]

1776 ingots

[bowfin]

Using fake math, I come up with 2,356...

[Minerat]

1776 ingots

Tritium

Haha I beat you, got 1776 in post #30.[smilie=w: I'll share (halvies) if we win you pay postage from my place to yours.

[ak_rob]

2857 ingots

[corbinace]

3168 for me.

[lightman]

Tritium

Haha I beat you, got 1776 in post #30.[smilie=w: I'll share (halvies) if we win you pay postage from my place to yours.

I'll send both of you a box if that is the winning number. Biggin won't mind, will ya Biggin?

[Roy Acuffff]

4318

Roy

[Minerat]

Thanks Biggin!

[bumpo628]

My guess is 3370

[reddog81]

I'll go with 2018

[fordfan]

2500 ingots

[Went2kck]

984 ingots

[mold maker]

1557 Hope you have a pallet jack.

[Finster101]

2159 I got as good a chance as playing lotto.

[kevin c]

2159 I got as good a chance as playing lotto.

Better with Lightman and Biggin by a lot.

[tinsnips]

3002 ingots

[Biggin]

I appreciate everyone playing along in today's world I'm glad to know there are still like minded individuals out there . It's like us linemen we have to stick together.

[jsn]

2,222 is my guess.

[DGV]

about 1017

[billyb]

1143 because that is my federal refund amount

[zymguy]

4999 i went back to your photo thread for clues :veryconfu

[lightman]

4999 i went back to your photo thread for clues :veryconfu

Thats a good idea but remember that was Biggin's cut of the score, not the total. Me and 2 other friends also got a piece of this score, although somewhat smaller pieces. There were also a few buckets of stick on weights that we kept separate. It would have been pretty cool to have that whole score in a pile but due to the way it was split up that would not have been practical.

[AnotherNew1]

2018 just a guess

[inspector_17]

546 is my guess

[pmer]

I appreciate everyone playing along in today's world I'm glad to know there are still like minded individuals out there . It's like us linemen we have to stick together.

Biggin?... I didn't know there was a real Biggin LOL! Well... I didn't mean anything by you partying all night before the last day of smelting. [smilie=p:

Is there a smiley for back pedaling?

[MOA]

1551 my guess

[lightman]

Biggin?... I didn't know there was a real Biggin LOL! Well... I didn't mean anything by you partying all night before the last day of smelting. [smilie=p:

Is there a smiley for back pedaling?

No offense taken, but yeah He's real. He's the furry guy in my smelting picture thread.

[shell70634]

2461. How many did YOU keep? How long did it take to smelt?

[Four-Sixty]

6,142

[maxreloader]

Gettin' close! :guntootsmiley:

[mozeppa]

588 is my guess

[Hickory]

It's 8:03 now it's a waiting game.

[rmark]

tick, tock, the clock hands move so slowly

[skeettx]

Central time :) 30 more minutes, yeeeee hawwww

[lightman]

Well, I'm sitting here watching the clock on my computer screen and I'll call time. I'll consult with my partner in crime in a minute and announce our winner.

[lightman]

After reviewing all of the guesses we have a WINNER! Congratulations Sundog! There are 2970 ingots in that pile and Sundog guessed 2971, missing it by 1. Djones was the next closest with 2968 and Smoke 4320 guessed 2977 way back on the first day. Congratulations Sundog! I'll be sending you a PM for an address to mail the prize. We did not mention a second place but I think we should send Djones a prize for being so close. Thanks Guys!

[Dirtjumper895]

Congrats fellas! Those were some good guesses.

[Biggin]

Thank you all very much for playing congratulations to Sundog!! Djones we'll send you something to!!!

[45workhorse]

Dang, to late to guess. And 2971 was my guess:bigsmyl2:

Congrats to the winners

[lightman]

Just a word on how we arrived at that number. As we poured the ingots we dumped them onto odd size sheets of plywood to cool and arranged them in even rows. A day would have as many as 7 or 8 stacks of these sheets. At the end of the day we counted them and dumped them on the pallet, writing these numbers on a pad. At the end of the job I added them all up using the calculator on my phone. We got the same number 2 times in a row and also a 3rd time using a calculator with a printed tape, so we're confident with these numbers. You can see these sheets in my smelting picture thread.

Watching your guesses was fun and interesting. I looks like some of you used famous dates, a few used the model numbers of famous rifles and some of you did it mathematically.

[Hossfly]

Wow that would make bout 90,000, 45 cail boolits.

[poppy42]

Hey I’m happy just to be almost close at 2750! Congrats to the winner !

[Hossfly]

Me to at 2850 I thought I had that one congrats Sundog��

[rmark]

I was a total failure at 1200, I was hoping the style points would bring up my score :)

[lightman]

2461. How many did YOU keep? How long did it take to smelt?

I didn't mean to ignore you, I just didn't want to give away too many clues this close to the end and after so many had already posted guesses. I kept all of the stick on weights, about 700# and 350# of clip ons. A couple of other friends accounted for a few hundred more. We worked parts of 6 days but several of those were only partial days. We had 1 slow day getting set up and a short day at the end, storing everything away and cleaning up. There were always 2 of us working and usually at least 1 more helping. We worked pretty steady but we didn't drive ourselves too hard.

[lightman]

I was a total failure at 1200, I was hoping the style points would bring up my score :)

:razz: Biggin was glad some of you guys were wrong! I'm thinking that one 24K guess was a typo! Biggin would have been happy! :razz: A few of the guys that stopped by in person missed it too! Thanks for playing!

[glockfan]

that was an entertaining pole. congrat to the winner.

[Minerat]

Thanks lightman& Biggins that was fun to watch. What a haul!

[JBinMN]

Outstanding to you fellers who put on the contest! & Congrats to the winner(s)!
:)

:drinks:

Now ya have to start casting all them boolits, since the "easy work" is done.
;)
LOL

Thanks again for the fun!
:)

[BigBore45]

Dang I was at 2835. Way off. Lol maybe I have more in my pile than I think. Lmao

[catmasher]

1467 wf

[MaryB]

Dang after doing the math I wasn't that far off! I should have subtracted a couple inches for the bare pallet edges!

[DW475]

That was one heck of a lead haul!!

[bbogue1]

Fun, Congrats to the winners. I missed it by 194. so close and yet so far. Great contest, thanks.

[sundog]

Thanks, Lightman! This was fun watching all the responses. PM coming atcha.

[Djones]

Thanks a lot guys for this fun game and the prize will go to good use!

Here is how I calculated my answer:

Given:
pallet width of 48"
pyramid height of 22"
The digital picture

Find:
How many ingots

Solution:
Using my reloading calipers, I measured the height of the pyramid on the screen. This allowed me to estimate the size of the ingots. I estimated the size of one ingot to be 3.1584 in^3. Then I took a swag at the stacking factor and estimated the volume one ingot takes up when stacked to be 5 in ^3.

I estimated the volume of the pyramid to be 14842.67 in^3

Then divided 5 into 14842.67 and got 2968.534 ingots. It looks like I was a little off on a few of my estimates and I should have rounded up to 2969 for a tie with Sundog.

Thanks again for the fun puzzle.

David Jones

[lightman]

Oh Yeah, Your math had a big flaw! You was way Off!:razz: I mean, you was off 2 whole ingots!:razz:

Really, it was a great guess! Your method was interesting and I only ask out of idle curiosity. The ingots were cast from 9 different Lyman and Lyman style molds. Each had a nominal weight of 1 pound but they were not poured exactly. And they were just tossed onto the plywood to form a pyramid. Any that fell off were tossed back on. Strictly random.

But, it was a fun game! Biggin and I Thank everyone for playing. Everybody else is welcome to share your method too!

[sundog]

My estimate was done thusly: divide the pyramid into layers and made an estimate (by looking at the pic) of what was on the bottom layer and went up to the stack height reducing the layer count to zero, added the layer counts, and that was it. Scientific, mathematical, SWAG!

The lucky guess was more than likely the starting number on the bottom layer.

[William Yanda]

"some of you did it mathematically."
That describes me. I counted the ingots on one side, cubed it and divided by two. Got me just a little light.

[D Crockett]

I am going to have to go over my math and find out why I missed it by only 30 ingots but that is one nice pile of lead you have there happy casting you will not run out for a while D Crockett

[woodbutcher]

[smilie=s: Hi Lightman.Thanks for a neat guessing game.Now,you need a wrist brace for when you start casting those sweet silver slugs.
Good luck.Have fun.Be safe.
Leo

[Biggin]

Thanks y'all!!

[lightman]

[smilie=s: Hi Lightman.Thanks for a neat guessing game.Now,you need a wrist brace for when you start casting those sweet silver slugs.
Good luck.Have fun.Be safe.
Leo

Your Welcome, everyone seemed to enjoy it! My wrist did get tired of handling those ingot molds! I've smelted lead for years but this was the largest amount that I have done at once. Biggin and another buddy ran the ladle while I dumped the molds. I guess I dumped every mold full that we did. I used a pair of channel lock pliers to grasp the tab on the ingot mold and my wrist would begin to tire out at around the 1000# mark each day. We ran 9 molds and that had them pretty spread out. I can't stand or stoop for long periods of time so I sit on a stool to do this. It would have been easier if we had a pair of vice grips for each mold. Someone that can stand for that long would have had less fatigue too. I really grew to appreciate the one Lee mold that we used with its built in handle.

Casting does not tire me out as much. I don't use anything bigger than a 4 cavity mold so the weight is not too bad. Really looking forward to using some of this!

[MaryB]

Maybe bolt an angle iron handle onto each mold with a wood block in it to provide grip area and cooler handling?