I found all the 22lr we've been looking for [Archive]

oldred

03-04-2016, 09:59 AM

Fresh 22 ammo at a surplus store and people say the Gov has nothing to do with the shortage??????????
They could, at least rotate their stock, before declaring it surplus.

WE are the problem, not the Government or gougers!

I seriously doubt it is Government surplus, a great many things sold in Government "surplus" stores have nothing to do with the Government or surplus. Besides if the Government was behind the shortage like that silly conspiracy theory claims then why would it be for sale in a surplus store? The Government is NOT hoarding up 22 ammo!!!!!

Nor are the gougers the cause of the shortage or the STORE prices, I at first said the same thing until considering what other folks had to say about it, it really don't make much sense to blame the gougers when all is considered. The ammo hits the stores shelves and disappears in a short time, in minutes sometimes, but whether the "normal" customer buys from the store shelf or the gouger in the store parking lot that beat him to it the ammo ultimately still ends up in the same place -much of it (most) stashed in someone's closet! It makes no difference at all in supply and only affects prices if a person buys from a gouger because the only way the gougers could be causing the shortage is if they bought up all the ammo and just sit on it! The gougers move that ammo or they wouldn't be buying it, they buy for profit and there's no profit in keeping the stuff. We can point fingers at the Government or profit takers from now until doomsday and it won't change the real cause and that's THOSE OF US HOARDING THE STUFF!!!!! There are still MANY THOUSANDS (if not millions?) of people who will still grab up every round they can find even though they have thousands of rounds stashed away already and even with the ammo makers running 24/7 it's apparently going to take years to fill that vast demand from the untold thousands of people who are still trying to build a huge stash against the next shortage, the same people that before wouldn't buy more than than 50 or 100 rounds at a time! WE are the problem, those of us who are constantly looking for ammo, not the Government (who is not buying it up despite the silly theory) nor the gougers who simply step in between the stores and the customers as another middleman, whether directly from the store shelves or through the hands of a third party first the same amount of ammo is still manufactured and distributed to the buyers!

Here's what the NRA says about the situation,

http://www.americanrifleman.org/articles/2014/8/11/so-really-where-is-the-22-rimfire-ammo/

This is interesting too about all the new 22 firearms that have entered the market recently, these folks are adding to the demand also!

http://www.americanrifleman.org/articles/2014/10/1/ok-really-what-s-going-on-with-22-rimfire/

Sierra Bullets doesn't sell 22RF nor make bullets for them so they have nothing to gain or lose and they have this to say about the situation, just a quote as an example,

"You hear all kind of numbers about how many firearms owners are in the USA, but you hear 70-80 million quite often. So for the sake of us not arguing that number – let’s cut it to 35 million. Do you know a gun owner that does not own at least one firearm chambered in .22 LR? Do you know any that are not looking for .22 LR ammo or would at least buy some if they saw it for normal prices? How many would they buy when they found it? A lot – right? But again, just to keep the argument on the low end, let’s say they would all be satisfied with just a single 500 pack. 35 million multiplied by 500 .22 LR rounds for them all – is 17.5 BILLION rounds"

That's 17.5 BILLION rounds that would fly off the shelves if every 22 owner found and bought a 500 rd brick, how many of us would NOT buy that brick right now if we found it at a decent price? I mean REALLY???

In 2012 alone just Ruger sold almost 255,000 pistols and 68,000 revolvers so if every customer who bought one also bought just 100 rounds of ammo that's over 32 MILLION rounds right there and that's just Ruger customers!

No it ain't the Guberment nor the scum sucking gougers waiting at the Walmart counter, it's simply supply and demand! Ammo production has more than tripled but demand has increased many times more than that so it's still going to take some time to catch up. The problem is simply people buying up every round they find and until that stops the shortage is going to remain.

Tackleberry41

03-04-2016, 10:51 AM

I know the surplus place, they have always been high. And very likely he will sit on it a while. I walked into my LGS yesterday and there were stacks of bricks of ammo. Certainly not for 10 cents a rd. I have been stocking up on the CCI standard velocity, usually 50 or 100rd boxes at a time. They had 10 bricks of it on the shelf, plus regular CCI. A brick of the standard velocity stuff was $45, Im used to paying the extra for the better ammo, little under $5/50. This place never got into the gouging like others, they did break up the bulk pack so more people got it, kept some put away for when people bought a 22.

Bonz

03-04-2016, 11:04 AM

I've bought a bunch recently at 0.07 per round and that is the most I would pay. I went almost a year without any and if the everyday price hits 0.10 per round and stays there, I'll sell my .22 guns. I can buy copper plated bullets and reload 9mm for about 0.15 per round, a lot less per round if I cast...

oldred

03-04-2016, 12:05 PM

I have been stocking up on the CCI standard velocity

Exactly what I was saying and when you have MANY thousands of folks doing the same thing that's the problem but I am NOT in any way trying to knock you for doing so, IT'S THE SMART THING TO DO when you can find it! While that may sound like a contradiction it's not, "stocking up" by folks is what's causing the problem but until everyone has what they want that's going to continue regardless. A person could do the "right thing" and refrain from stocking up and chance getting left out I suppose but not many are going to do that! If I find any at a decent price I too will buy a brick or two even though I have a supply at home, I can keep my supply where it is and shoot the new stuff (or better yet rotate the stocks) without worry of shooting up my supply and not getting any more. "Stocking up" may be causing the shortage but in this day it's simply a fact of life, it may be the cause of the shortage but realistically the choice is to be a part of the cause of the problem or risk being left out altogether! Stock up if you can, within reason, and don't feel guilty because after a while the demand will be satisfied as the supplies people have reach the point where buying starts to slow and we are seeing signs this is happening now. Those who choose to "do the right thing" and fail to put away a supply might be doing their part to ease the shortage but they could also be those that are left without if another panic starts and that could happen at any time!

fecmech

03-08-2016, 03:37 PM

Was in Cabelas yesterday and bought 3 bricks of CCI Blaser, one for me and one each for a couple friends. It was priced at $27.99/500 which in today's world seems reasonable. I haven't shot hardly any .22 in the past few years, too darned expensive! Nice thing about Cabelas is their sales on S&B primers@$19.99 which is $18.99 with the GI discount. Cast .38's with Bullseye are about $15/"brick"+ a little work!

montana_charlie

03-08-2016, 04:11 PM

Lots of stuff but at 10¢ a round, it will probably sit there until it corrodes in the boxes! I find it on a regular basis now at <5¢.

banger
You find CCI Mini Mag at <5¢ ?
Where ?

Walkingwolf

03-08-2016, 04:34 PM

The local Walmart there are the same people every morning buying up all the 22lr ammo. Some of them local pawn, and gun shops where the mark up the ammo 100%. It is legal what they are doing, but it IS the gougers causing the problem. I have not bought 22 ammo in a long time. Up theirs! Most of my training now is with airsoft, very inexpensive, or pellet gun. I support that with centerfire practice. During the summer I was shooting 500 BBs a day costing about a buck. I break out the 22lr occasionally for small game, and varmints, but .22 pellets work fine most of the time.

I think I pay around 25 dollars for a 20 pound propane tank, which lasts forever. CO2 cartridges bought in lots cost .40 per cartridge. Premium 6mm BBs are around 20 dollars for 5000.

I am not going to get up every morning and stand around the sporting goods counter at Walmart. They can keep gouging, but hopefully the bottom drops out and they will be caught with their pants down.

John Boy

03-08-2016, 05:19 PM

http://www.gunbot.net/ammo/rimfire/22lr/
No rimfires under 9 cents and no shorts or Longs - NADA!

Walkingwolf

03-08-2016, 05:32 PM

http://www.gunbot.net/ammo/rimfire/22lr/
No rimfires under 9 cents and no shorts or Longs - NADA!

The hundred packs at Wally World are around 6 dollars, but you have to get them quickly. I have about 400 rounds left, and I will mostly sit on that until the bow breaks. Until then I enjoy the hell out of my airsoft pistols. Would hate to see the price of airsoft go up, but we could stick it to them very easy by just not buying 22lr. Let the gougers sit on it.

PerpetualStudent

03-09-2016, 12:03 AM

Here in WI I've not seen .22 for less than 24 cents round. I mean it's still cheaper than any other box of 50 rounds on the shelves but it's keeping me off the range with my rimfire.

kcajeel

03-09-2016, 05:41 PM

I'm not hoarding any more now than I ever did, and it still isn't coming down any. Just hang onto your butts. When Hillary gets in with her history and tactics we'll really have hell to pay.

wonderwolf

03-09-2016, 07:48 PM

Haven't seen any on 1st tier retail shelves in almost 9 months and that was .22 shorts only. See TONS of it at the shows in 2nd tier (price gougers) and see very little of it moving, seems like everybody and their brother wants to get in on the rimfire price gouging these days. I'll stick with loading .38spl and .357 mag for my bolt action and revolver...only costs me $.04 a round and packs more punch. Thinking of buying a Liberty Mystic X suppressor with the money I'm NOT spending on $50 per brick bulk pack .22LR.

oldred

03-09-2016, 08:48 PM

It IS the gougers causing the problem.

NO IT IS NOT THE GOUGERS!!!! It is US, WE who buy up every round we can find! It makes no difference if the person who ends up with the ammo buys it from the store shelf or the guy who beat them to it, the ammo still ends up in the same place. Do you honestly think ammo would sit on the shelf and be available if the gougers stopped buying it? Think about it, the SAME people who are willing to buy at inflated prices from gougers would scramble to buy every round they could if it was available cheaper at the stores! If people are paying gouger prices what makes you think they wouldn't buy just as much or even more if they could find it cheaper at a store?

Until we quite trying to place the blame somewhere else and stop trying to "lay in a supply for the next shortage" then the shortage will continue, gougers may drive up the price for those people who buy from them but they are NOT the cause of the problem! If people (like US) would not hoard up RF ammo then the gougers would not have a market. The bottom line is that production has about tripled but demand has risen more than tenfold and until that demand is satisfied the shortage is going to continue, it's not gougers causing the same people who before would buy a 100 round box at a time, or possibly a brick, to now try and "stock up" so as not to get caught without again. There are MANY thousands of these people, me included, and if we would stop doing that THEN AND ONLY THEN will the problem go away!

Buy it from the store or the guy in the parking lot who beat you to it but the end result is the same, the manufacturers produce the SAME EXACT NUMBER of rounds gougers or no gougers and the gougers are putting every one of the rounds they buy right into the closets of the hoarders! The only way the gougers would be the problem is if they bought it up and sat on it but it doesn't work that way, they can't eat the stuff and there's no profit in sitting on it so all they are is another middle man and nothing more!

The same numbers of rounds are manufactured and sold regardless, the problem is that for every box of ammo manufactured there are half a dozen or more buyers for it providing the opportunity for some to buy and sell for a profit but that doesn't change the supply or the demand. They simply couldn't do it if the market wasn't there, the gougers didn't create the problem -the problem created the gougers!

Walkingwolf

03-09-2016, 09:08 PM

NO IT IS NOT THE GOUGERS!!!! It is US, WE who buy up every round we can find! It makes no difference if the person who ends up with the ammo buys it from the store shelf or the guy who beat them to it, the ammo still ends up in the same place. Do you honestly think ammo would sit on the shelf and be available if the gougers stopped buying it? Think about it, the SAME people who are willing to buy at inflated prices from gougers would scramble to buy every round they could if it was available cheaper at the stores! If people are paying gouger prices what makes you think they wouldn't buy just as much or even more if they could find it cheaper at a store?

Until we quite trying to place the blame somewhere else and stop trying to "lay in a supply for the next shortage" then the shortage will continue, gougers may drive up the price for those people who buy from them but they are NOT the cause of the problem! If people (like US) would not hoard up RF ammo then the gougers would not have a market. The bottom line is that production has about tripled but demand has risen more than tenfold and until that demand is satisfied the shortage is going to continue, it's not gougers causing the same people who before would buy a 100 round box at a time, or possibly a brick, to now try and "stock up" so as not to get caught without again. There are MANY thousands of these people, me included, and if we would stop doing that THEN AND ONLY THEN will the problem go away!

Buy it from the store or the guy in the parking lot who beat you to it but the end result is the same, the manufacturers produce the SAME EXACT NUMBER of rounds gougers or no gougers and the gougers are putting every one of the rounds they buy right into the closets of the hoarders! The only way the gougers would be the problem is if they bought it up and sat on it but it doesn't work that way, they can't eat the stuff and there's no profit in sitting on it so all they are is another middle man and nothing more!

The same numbers of rounds are manufactured and sold regardless, the problem is that for every box of ammo that hits the shelves there are half a dozen or more buyers for it providing the opportunity for some to buy and sell for a profit but that doesn't change the supply or the demand. They simply couldn't do it if the market wasn't there, the gougers didn't create the problem -the problem created the gougers!

So I take it you buy, and resell ammo? IIRC selling ammo for a business requires a FFL, so most of the gougers are breaking the law.

I was wrong on the license, it is legal to be in the ammo business without a license. I was surprised to read that, but state laws may require a state license. And should a emergency be declared gouging is a crime.

odfairfaxsub

03-10-2016, 12:37 PM

He only makes claims to be like people who try to stock up on ammo to stock up. No where in that post did I read buys ammo and sells it. We need to calm the heck down.

Everyone is stressed that we can't buy a brick of ammo anymore to something we couldn't reload. So leave the guy alone. I'm w him. Every time I go to Walmart somebody bought the 3 box max and the guy after him (rinse and repeat) and there's none left.

oldred

03-10-2016, 03:42 PM

So I take it you buy, and resell ammo?

No I don't sell ammo although I have given a bunch of it away as Christmas gifts! If I was buying AND then re-selling I wouldn't be as much a part of the problem as I am now by keeping what I have, if I was selling it then it would be going back into the market.

I understand your line of thought about the gougers, they arrive early and buy it all up so no one else can get any and on the surface that seems to make sense until you really stop and think about it, I also can see the flaw with that too as I too was of the same opinion at first but discussion right here on this forum and others quickly got me to thinking otherwise. The statement that really made it clear to me was when one fella pointed out that a gouger is essentially just a guy at the head of the line who buys ammo and then turns right around and re-sells it to the people who were waiting in line behind him, the same amount of ammo was sold and it still ended up in someone's closet but it took a detour through a gougers hands first. The end result is exactly the same, if the gouger hadn't taken it all then the next 3 or 4 people who otherwise would have bought from the gouger would have taken it and the people still standing in line would still be left just as empty handed! A person buying ammo to resell may take it off the shelf but at the same time he prevents someone else from doing so even if it was still there because he sells it to someone who WOULD HAVE bought it off the same shelf if the first buyer hadn't beat him to it, either way the shelf is just as bare and the ammo ended up in the same place! I am NOT saying that's an alright thing to do, it's rotten to the core IMO but it's legal and from an economic standpoint just a business transaction no different than people who buy sale items at stores and re-sell on Ebay.

My point is not to defend the gougers but to dispel the myth that they are the problem when they are not, it's their customers that are causing the problem! If it weren't for the hoarders, and I have to admit I too have more 22 ammo than I would have had the panic not happened, then the gougers wouldn't have a market so they wouldn't be buying any. Untold thousands of people have WAAAAAAY more 22 RF ammo stashed away than they did a few years ago and most would buy more if they found it cheap, and that's only part of the problem. Most of us know at least a few people like this one, a classic "Bubba" type that I have mentioned here before that was showing me his stash he had in the trunk of his car. This guy had bought up every round he could find right at the beginning of the panic, that car trunk was loaded down because as he told me "Obama has outlawed it and there won't be anymore"! :roll: This was coming from a guy that probably won't shoot a box of ammo a year (if any at all) BUT multiply that idiot (because of the Obama statement) by a few thousand then add in all the many thousands of new gun owners who ran out and bought guns during the gun buying panic who now want ammo plus the untold thousands who are determined not to be caught without again and it becomes easy to see where all the ammo is going and it's not because of gougers! Until we admit that WE are the problem and stop the panic buying the "shortage" is going to continue but who among us is willing to be the first? Outlawing re-selling is not going to solve the problem since the same people are still trying to buy ammo regardless of who they buy it from. I don't like the gougers any more than you do but do you really want the Government stepping in and telling people they can't buy and re-sell a legal product and that only retail stores be allowed to? It would do nothing to help the shortage although it "might" result in slightly lower prices -or not- but sometimes a solution is worse than the problem it purports to solve.

bdicki

03-10-2016, 03:49 PM

I'll be the first.

oldred

03-10-2016, 04:30 PM

I'll be the first.

Well that's a start now all we have to do is convince a few hundred thousand more to do the same! :-P

Like anything else with a perceived value 22 ammo has taken on a kind of mystical attraction to a lot of folks, I for one now, since the panic started, have a very hard time passing up ammo whenever I find it even though realistically I know it's the right thing to do -it's almost as if it is some kind of rare jewelry! My "stash" is not all that big and I could shoot it all up in a fairly short time if I still shot as much as I did before the panic so I don't feel too guilty.

KCSO

03-10-2016, 04:53 PM

Cabela's local 24.95 per 500 and Walmart when you can get them about the same price. The price will drop when enough greedy people start getting worried.

oldred

03-10-2016, 05:02 PM

Cabela's local 24.95 per 500 and Walmart when you can get them about the same price. The price will drop when enough greedy people start getting worried.

That's what I'm hoping for, a reverse panic when/if ammo supplies return to any sense of normalcy on the store shelves, people may not sell what they have but they may stop buying to such a degree that the manufacturers find themselves facing a glutted market with sagging sales because there's so much ammo out there instead of the windfall they are experiencing now. This will of course lead to bargain prices IF it indeed becomes a reality, the election in November could be the wild card here however.

I have to hand it to the manufacturers however because except for manufacturing cost increases due to inflation and overtime costs of running the plants 24/7 they have pretty much held the line on prices, the high prices we see is almost entirely at the retail level. They could easily have taken advantage of the situation and did what what the oil companies did in the 70's, gouge us to the bone but they didn't!

ghh3rd

03-10-2016, 05:42 PM

oldred

03-10-2016, 10:09 PM

Someone at work has moonlighted at Walmart for quite a while. They told me that they know when .22 ammo comes in, and alert their friends before it's put on the shelves. Sometimes a casual conversation turns my stomach.

I'm sure a lot of that goes on and you can bet a bunch of it, probably most, is bought by re-sellers. This is a shame for sure and probably affects which buyer ultimately ends up with the ammo but it doesn't change the numbers, if the store employees' buddies weren't there to buy it up someone else would so in the end it has no effect on the shortage. I have found 22 ammo a couple of times at the local Wal-mart since the panic started and both times it was a three box limit for the 50 round boxes and a two box limit for the 100 round boxes, bricks simply weren't available then, but in any case it didn't last long until it was all gone. I know several people who have also been lucky enough to be there when they had some so at that particular store there must not be a lot of inside info given out but then who knows if sometimes maybe they do?

tazman

03-11-2016, 03:30 PM

Cabela's local 24.95 per 500 and Walmart when you can get them about the same price. The price will drop when enough greedy people start getting worried.

Wish there was a Cabela's closer. Nearest one is 250 miles away.
Still nothing at any Walmart in my area. Got some showing up at some local farm stores. Not cheap but not really gouging either.

DerekP Houston

03-11-2016, 03:35 PM

Wish there was a Cabela's closer. Nearest one is 250 miles away.
Still nothing at any Walmart in my area. Got some showing up at some local farm stores. Not cheap but not really gouging either.

Bass pro and Carters prices were a little higher than before the shortage but not too outrageous. I think Academy raised the bulk prices a tad but that could just be passed on from the manfacturer. I can understand a bit of flunctuation in price due to the market, but the prime offenders (Cheaper Than Dirt) are the ones who simply cancelled all orders and doubled the price on existing inventory. I waited out the worst of the shortage, and it is making a slow comeback here. I haven't even shot much since I started reloading during the panic buying of 2009, 38 spec or 9mm is more fun than a 22lr in my book

tazman

03-11-2016, 05:01 PM

Bass Pro lists decent prices but none is ever available. Closest store is 60 miles from me. I was there a couple of days ago and they had nothing in the store.
The local gun shop I go to when in that area had some 22lr but I refuse to pay the $10.99 for a 100 pack they were wanting. Still worth going there since their prices on guns are better than anywhere closer to me.

oldred

03-11-2016, 06:15 PM

but the prime offenders (Cheaper Than Dirt) are the ones who simply cancelled all orders and doubled the price on existing inventory.

Unfortunately (or maybe it is fortunate) because of the profanity filter I am not allowed to use the proper, and I do mean the PROPER, words to describe CTD on this forum! People complain about gougers waiting in line at Walmart but what those guys are doing pales in comparison to CTD, I will never ever send another cent to those scum! Not only are they shamelessly gouging with obscene pricing but they stooped to a new low recently with some of their Email ads, Boldly claiming (out-right lying!!!) that they had the LOWEST prices of anyone on 22 RF, the LOWEST???????? [smilie=b:

Then the ad showed several different brands of 22 RF at PRE-PANIC prices and when you clicked on them it would indeed take you to that product and did indeed have that price! HOWEVER, it was all "Out-of-Stock, No Backorder"! Of course they did have their usual grossly over-priced ammo and clearly the ad was nothing but a sucker gimmick playing the customer for being stupid! It wasn't false advertising as it was their old ads and technically they are just out-of-stock but obviously they never had any for that price and were just showing old ads that were still up on the site. I immediately put their site into the spam filter (they have no way to unsubscribe) so I would no longer get their almost daily ads and vowed never to buy from them again! I can just imagine the traffic to their site that one generated, I mean who wouldn't want to check out a claim for RF ammo at pre-panic prices? I was already PO'ed at them over the gouging but playing the customers for idiots was the last straw!

Earlwb

03-13-2016, 09:22 PM

I watched a guy at the local Walmart go wild and crazy when they would only sell him two boxes of .22's. The sign sticker on the display case said three boxes, but it was crossed out with a magic marker stating only two boxes. He got all wild and belligerent with the sales clerks. demanding to buy three boxes. They called their manager who appeared to call someone on the phone (I suspect he didn't call anyone, and faked the call) who told him it was only two boxes now. Boy did that guy get pissed. Anyway be belatedly bought the two boxes and left. Sheesh. There were only three large boxes of the 22's left in the case. He was trying real hard to scarf them all up.

The supply here tends to come and go. The stores get it in and it starts to move fairly quickly. I remember seeing several tubs of the Remington 22's on the table at Bass Pro Outdoor World, and while I was thinking about it and looking around at the stuff, they got sold off. I didn't think people would grab them that fast. That is a lot of shooting for me to go through a tub of 22's. It would take quite a while for me. I don't get to just go out and plink anymore. Civilization keeps moving in on my shooting areas.

Walkingwolf

03-13-2016, 09:40 PM

I buy very little 22lr, I have only 500 rounds total that will last me for years. I use 22lr for utility, I don't need that much. Let's meet in the middle and agree it is a combination of hoarders, and gougers causing problems for the average shooter.

As far as the cost of ammo, even at pre panic prices they did me a favor. I am very happy that we got into training with airsoft, and I tell as many people as I can when they complain they cannot shoot to look into it. Because it does not affect me so much does not make it right though. People in the gun community taking advantage of other people in the community is despicable.

I usually go to a high velocity pellet gun for most chores. Quit, accurate, and inexpensive. I took out a possum a couple weeks back with the pellet gun in the dark with just a flashlight held by my wife.

Teddy (punchie)

03-13-2016, 10:05 PM

Girls are not shooting 22's is all I say to everyone. If I can get some at a fairs price 5-7 cents then we will shoot 22. For now it shotguns and extra rifle ammo and turkey shoots.

May end up with an air gun that was talked about earlier.

oldred

03-13-2016, 10:24 PM

Let's meet in the middle and agree it is a combination of hoarders, and gougers causing problems for the average shooter

Meet anywhere you like and believe what you like but it's the people who are buying the ammo and sitting on it that is the problem, the "gouger" does not sit on it but simply sells to someone who otherwise would have bought it at the store. "X" number of rounds are manufactured and that same "X" number of rounds is sold to the consumer to either shoot or hoard depending on their reason for buying, the gouger as you call them is nothing more than another middleman. Anyway you want to look at it or anything you want to call it but the bottom line is that every single round the manufacturers are shipping ends up in the same place, either shot by the consumer or stored in their closet and that number of rounds available is NOT changed by someone buying it and turning right around and selling it to someone else! The problem is us, plain and simple, we are simply trying to buy more ammo than is being made and until we admit it and stop buying ammo to stash away for "lean times" this shortage is going to continue, trying to place the blame where it does not belong is not doing anyone any good! If every "gouger" in the country was barred from buying a single round of ammo it wouldn't change a thing except where some people buy it and there would still not be any more ammo available!

Think of it this way, there is only so much ammo divided up between "X" number of stores in any given area, let's say ten in this case, with each getting a certain allotment. Say another Bass Pro Shop opens up, the ammo earmarked for that area would then have to be divided among eleven stores instead of ten so each one will now have less ammo on the shelves BUT the SAME AMOUNT of ammo is going to be available! Your so-called gougers are no different than another store opening as far as affecting availability, while we might consider the gouger to be engaging in a shady low-life business he is NOT the cause of the problem because it still has no effect on how much ammo is available in the end!

WE are the problem and until WE, the consumer, stop trying to buy more ammo than is being made this shortage is going to continue whether the "gouger" is first in line at WalMart or not!

Walkingwolf

03-13-2016, 10:40 PM

Don't include me in your we, you want to take the blame that is fine. But I am neither gouging, or hoarding. You can believe whatever you wish, but in my book they are both scum.

I have the same 22lr ammo for 10 years, I did not buy into the BS in the first place. It is not right that these scum cause problems with those who have legitimate needs for at least some ammo.

oldred

03-14-2016, 10:05 AM

I have the same 22lr ammo for 10 years, I did not buy into the BS in the first place. It is not right that these scum cause problems with those who have legitimate needs for at least some ammo.

From what you say about your ammo situation then you are indeed not part of the problem in that respect but perpetuating the myth is another thing altogether. Buying ammo from someone who beat you to it at the store is absolutely no different from a supply/demand standpoint than if you gave your neighbor some money to pick up a box of ammo at the store for you, just like your "gouger" they buy it at the store and turn right around and hand it to you, from a supply perspective there is absolutely no difference.

Think about it, what came first the shortage or the "gougers"? Obviously there were no "gougers" at first, they came AFTER the shortage started when they saw an opportunity to make a dollar so without "gougers" how do you explain how the shortage started?

Quite obviously they did NOT cause the problem because until the shortage started there were no "gougers"! THE SAME THING THAT CAUSED THE PANIC IN THE FIRST PLACE HAS NOT CHANGED! It is still the same thing that is causing it to continue to this day, the RUMORS! Excess demand stated the shortage before the first "gouger" bought the first round and that demand has only recently started to die down any at all, take your pick,

The Government is hoarding it all up, I BETTER STOCK UP WHILE I CAN!

The gougers are buying it all up, I BETTER STOCK UP WHILE I CAN!

"They" are going to make it hard to get, I BETTER STOCK UP WHILE I CAN!

And the new one,

Hillary could get elected and if she does she will certainly try to restrict the sales of guns and ammo, I BETTER STOCK UP WHILE I CAN!!!!!

You can cry that silly "gouger" nonsense all you want but "I BETTER STOCK UP WHILE I CAN" is, and always has been, the problem from the start not some guy who jumps the line and then resells the same ammo to the guy standing behind him and that's all "gouging" amounts to. The "gougers" didn't even exist when this started so they obviously weren't the cause then nor are they now because nothing has changed except that the shortage has actually eased somewhat recently. You say you are not part of the problem and as far as hoarding ammo that's true but by supporting the real reason by repeating these rumors which did cause the shortage you are indeed being a part of it.

PerpetualStudent

03-14-2016, 04:07 PM

In general I agree with oldred, the problem is a shift in the average buyer from
"well I'm going to the range, better stop at walmart and pick up a brick of .22 to shoot too"
to
"well I'd better swing buy Walmart see if there's any .22 to add to my stash- maybe one day I'll have enough to shoot again"

I do question that the gougers aren't adding to demand. If they just turned and sold it at market value then they wouldn't add to demand. But I wonder how much product the gougers actually move vs how much they sit on waiting til someone will pay their price. If they keep an inventory, they are adding to demand.

It is worth saying that I'm getting uncomfortable with this argument. I started getting uncomfortable with it 6 years in to the panic. I had finally moved out of NYC went to buy a rimfire because I had missed shooting and I told myself "The panic can't last much longer, it's been 6 years, any month now I'll see .22 on the shelves again and I can afford to shoot regularly". It was a year and a half from that point that I actually took it to the range. And then it was only because a friend from out of state hooked me up with some ammo. I am seeing nice ammo on the shelves for 12 bucks a box at one specific retailer the last few months, usually with a limit, but cheap plinking ammo? No. I've not seen it in years. I haven't seen .22 at walmart for years either.

If we still had a brick for 12 bucks I'd shoot a brick every couple of months, probably sit on one or two boxes at home, and just rotate it. With Ammo availability the way it is and at the prices where they are? My .22 is staying at home and so am I. Hypothetically then, if supply caught up and I started doing that, I'd be adding to the demand more than I am right now. I just can't force myself to pay the same amount money for 1/10th the amount of ammo. So some agents are increasing demand- others are decreasing- I don't know what true demand is. I am becoming more convinced that even discounting the hoarders as temporary, production could increase safely I think there's enough demand from actual (and frustrated) shooters to warrant it.

smokeywolf

03-14-2016, 04:17 PM

I'll load and shoot 218 bee before would pay over $300.00 for a case of standard vel. 22 LR.

oldred

03-14-2016, 04:49 PM

If they just turned and sold it at market value then they wouldn't add to demand. But I wonder how much product the gougers actually move vs how much they sit on waiting til someone will pay their price. If they keep an inventory, they are adding to demand

Obviously they affect price, at least for those that buy from them, but if they weren't moving it they wouldn't be making any money so they wouldn't be buying it. As I pointed out earlier the shortage clearly started before the "gougers" even got involved and the very same reasons for it starting in the first place have not changed, rumor inspired wildly excessive demand started it and the very same rumor inspired wildly excessive demand is still very much alive and well, about the only thing that has changed is new rumors have been added! The excessive demand has not slacked off to any significant degree so unfortunately even if we could arrest the "gougers" and put them all in jail (I certainly wouldn't feel sorry for them!) the shelves will still remain just as bare for the average shooter as long as there are 10 buyers standing in line for every box of ammo currently produced. There's little disagreement that the "gougers" are a PITA in more ways than one but they are simply taking advantage of the situation that was there before they even got involved.

PerpetualStudent

03-14-2016, 05:00 PM

I'd just add to the "taking advantage of it" to also include "and making it worse" which, they have an incentive to do after all! They're making money by convincing people to buy from them. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they originated some of the rumors. My main quarrel with them is that their inventory is yet more demand when production already can't keep up.

The last time I saw one of them at a gun show they had 3000 rounds on the table (I imagine a bit more behind the table) waiting for the people willing to pay 60-80 bucks per 500.

I understand why factories haven't expanding beyond running at full capacity, nobody wants to have invested in infrastructure and then have demand die off. But don't you think after 8 years of demand, somebody would say "alright, we should expand our production of .22lr"?

On the bright side- it brought me here to learn about cat sneeze loads and casting generally. I'll be in the casting business for less than the cost of a thousand rounds of .22lr Also got me into shooting airgun in the house :-o and that's more trigger time than I'd be getting even with "normal" .22lr prices. Trying to look on the brightside. I just miss shooting .22 on a weekly basis

oldred

03-14-2016, 05:50 PM

The last time I saw one of them at a gun show they had 3000 rounds on the table (I imagine a bit more behind the table) waiting for the people willing to pay 60-80 bucks per 500

How does a gouger having it for sale as opposed to the hoarder hiding it in his closet contribute to the shortage? That would have to assume that if the gouger didn't buy it the next guy in line wouldn't either but as long as we have the demand we do that's not going to be the case, for every brick the gouger didn't buy there are still several more people waiting to hoard it up so it disappears just as quickly and the shelves remain just as bare! If the gouger get's it first it's at least available at a higher price, when the hoarders get it then it's simply GONE!

This is why they affect the price but not over-all availability, it has even been argued that the higher prices have even increased availability by discouraging hoarding, at least for those willing to pay the inflated prices, because most people who would buy every brick of ammo that WalMart has on the shelf at $24 a brick would buy very little at $60 a brick! It makes little difference to the guy staring at the empty shelf if the ammo was carried out by someone who intends to re-sell or just stick it in their closet it's still just as gone and there is absolutely no shortage of people waiting to stick it in their closets! Even higher priced ammo is better than no ammo and when people buy more because it's cheaper that only adds fuel to the fire. No matter who we point fingers at or who the first purchaser is at WalMart, or wherever, the bottom line is the ammo is either hoarded or shot by the end consumer and there is no arguing that there are far more buyers waiting than boxes of ammo to go around, as long as that situation remains the shelves are going to remain bare.

Earlwb

03-14-2016, 07:04 PM

Well I suppose there is always bows and arrows. They are pretty much reusable barring damage or loss or something. I have had a hankering to try my hand with a atlatl too. It would be pretty neat if they still had a pistol or rifle chambered for that little 5.7x28mm cartridge still. I know FN shows a pistol with it and there is a rifle chambered for it, but it doesn't appear to be stocked anywhere, so maybe they aren't making them now. My old 22 Hornet rifle still works though.

I suspect that the resellers are still going at it, buy low and sell high. I wonder how many of them are stuck sitting on their piles of 22's with no buyers.

PerpetualStudent

03-14-2016, 07:22 PM

How does a gouger having it for sale as opposed to the hoarder hiding it in his closet contribute to the shortage? That would have to assume that if the gouger didn't buy it the next guy in line wouldn't either

On the contrary. I'm not assuming that it wouldn't be bought. I'm saying the Gouger is another hoarder and a worse one because he's never going to hit a point where he's happy with his stash and will start shooting and buying. He is always going to buy all he can.

That gouger was sitting on 3k, probably 6k rounds, that were not moving. They were not in the hands of the guy looking to put 3k in his hole so he can get back to shooting. They were in the hands of a gouger trying to make a buck. He is effectively another store with an inventory. I'm saying that the inventory he has is in addition to the demand.

If he was moving all his product as rapidly as our grocery stores do- no backroom to speak of- then your argument would be entirely correct. But because each gouger has some amount of inventory they are in fact creating demand.

Again, I agree with you, that the average shooter is more of a cause for the shortage. But I do think that the average shooter is going to hit the point of "I've got enough in the hole" and stop being a hoover and just buy what he intends to shoot. The gougers don't have that. They will keep buying and sitting on it.

Without some sort of knowledge of how much inventory these resellers actually have- we're both just left with conjecture. I tend to think they have significant inventory and are selling above the "true" market prices. They're hoping that sitting on it will create scarcity and keep the "true" price at 60-80 for a brick.

oldred

03-14-2016, 09:00 PM

On the contrary. I'm not assuming that it wouldn't be bought. I'm saying the Gouger is another hoarder and a worse one because he's never going to hit a point where he's happy with his stash and will start shooting and buying. He is always going to buy all he can.

That gouger was sitting on 3k, probably 6k rounds, that were not moving. They were not in the hands of the guy looking to put 3k in his hole so he can get back to shooting. They were in the hands of a gouger trying to make a buck. He is effectively another store with an inventory. I'm saying that the inventory he has is in addition to the demand

Yes the gouger is another source of demand BUT what difference does that make when there are already more buyers than ammo to go around? We can reason that "yeah but it's more fairly distributed that way" and no one is arguing that point but it still makes no difference in the shortage, sure the gouger takes inventory off the shelf but there is always a line of hoarders waiting to take it if he doesn't so the end result is exactly the same, and besides the gouger is going to re-sell it while the hoarder takes it out forever! It all boils down to which is better, a gouger offering it for sale at an unfair price or a hoarder or legitimate shooter removing it forever? We are not talking about what's fair or not fair, that has no bearing on the CAUSE OF THE PROBLEM which is the subject here, the assumption is that the gouger at least contributes to the problem when he actually does not, he offers for sale ammo that someone else would take away for good! The shortage is simply supply and demand no matter who's buying it, gouger or not.

Any way you cut it the gouger has those rounds available for sale and will move them, albeit at an unfair price, vs the hoarder who would stash them away forever and there are a heck of a lot more hoarders than gougers! Either way the shelves are just as bare just as quickly and it's due solely to excessive demand, if the gouger didn't do it then there are several hoarders waiting in line to do it for him! The flaw is thinking that if the gouger did not buy it to sell then that would leave more inventory on the shelves for the average shooter but all it actually does is shift from the gouger trying to sell it to another person stashing it away for good, In the end as long as the situation is as it is the gouger makes no difference! In a sense the gouger might actually not be as bad as another hoarder, who is the real problem, because the gouger at least returns the ammo to the market while the hoarder does not. That 3000 to 6000 rounds you saw would simply have been in someone's closet because it would have been snapped up by someone else just as quickly, whether they intended to shoot it or hoard it makes no difference it STILL would be sold out just as quickly either way! Is it more fair for a "legitimate" buyer to get this ammo than a greedy gouger or hoarder? No doubt about it and I never disagreed with that but regardless of whether or not the legitimate buyer or the gouger gets it there is NO DIFFERENCE in the supply, the shelves end up bare just as quickly! The point is that the gouger would make no difference in the amount of ammo you find in a store because ANY AND ALL ammo he leaves will be grabbed by legitimate buyers in the same time frame and while it may be getting distributed more fairly that way there is no way that's going to change the numbers of ammo supplied and sold, thus the gouger has NO effect on causing the problem, indeed they technically are actually helping the problem in a sense by offering what they get for sale instead of hiding it away forever.

I do think that the average shooter is going to hit the point of "I've got enough in the hole" and stop being a hoover and just buy what he intends to shoot

That is the only solution to the problem and the exact opposite situation is the sole cause of it in the first place, remember there were no gougers when this started and nothing has changed to alleviate that excessive demand.

"The gougers don't have that, They will keep buying and sitting on it"

No, actually they won't, why would they?

When it reaches the point as described above and the average shooter hits that point of "I've got enough" then the gougers' market will disappear and they will unload what they have and move on to something else, they can't make a profit once the shortage subsides because the average shooter has finally decided he has enough.

PerpetualStudent

03-14-2016, 10:09 PM

It's that last point that we have a legitimate disagreement. And to be clear we agree for the most part. I just think the Gouger's inventory is making a bad problem worse.

Think of it like this. Before the panic you had demand something like so:
".22 shot that month" + ".22 bought to be stored" = demand

A pretty efficient market had filled that nicely. New shooters came in but could build their reserve with little to no disturbance. A little less .22 was shot that month as the average shooter saw there wasn't .22 right then, no big deal. It'd be back. This time you don't shoot the .22, you will next time.

With the panic huge amounts of the demand were in the ".22 bought and stored", and we both agree, most shooters are looking to have their definition of "enough" in the hole and then get back to the buy and shoot pattern of old. Until that demand is filled, things aren't getting back to normal.

The Gougers are helping to keep the ".22 shot month" demand met by pricing at the "real" market value (I think probably above that). But. They are keeping the ".22 to be stored" demand from being filled because they are storing it in their inventories. That's a new demand on the ".22 to be stored". That's thousands of rounds in the hands of hundreds of people, who otherwise would not have bought it. Those are rounds that are not filling the demand of the normal shooter that would allow us to get back to normal.

You're quite right that the demand for ".22 to store" predated (and created) the gougers. The hard core paranoid people have filled their ".22 to store" but probably aren't shooting that much as it's too dear. The competitive shooters are still shooting, but they don't have the reserve they want. The average shooter isn't shooting or able to fill out the reserve he wants. The gougers are still buying and trying to sell at 60-80 bucks a brick.

And here is where we part ways. If you can still buy it from the store for 20 dollars a brick,you have no real overhead costs for your inventory, and you can sell it at least to the amateur competitive shooters at 60 a brick, why on earth would you stop? You keep buying it up and sitting on it, demand is still there. The amateur competitive shooters will let you grind out a steady enough profit, maybe after long enough more shooters will swallow hard and pay your price so that they can have a brick at home. So, you are making 200% gross profit and you can keep making that as long as you keep buying it up. They are delaying the demand from being filled. True eventually they'll decide they have enough money tied up in inventory but that day's a long way off.

I think they are tying up lots of it in their inventory, and that is keeping the average shooter from having "enough" in the hole (they want it but not at 60 a box), which in turn is keeping us from getting back to normal where most of the produced rounds in a month are shot that month.

oldred

03-15-2016, 09:40 AM

With the panic huge amounts of the demand were in the ".22 bought and stored", and we both agree, most shooters are looking to have their definition of "enough" in the hole and then get back to the buy and shoot pattern of old. Until that demand is filled, things aren't getting back to normal.

That's the kicker but there's still many times the demand vs production currently and there's little sign that has changed much at all.

The Gougers are helping to keep the ".22 shot month" demand met by pricing at the "real" market value (I think probably above that). But. They are keeping the ".22 to be stored" demand from being filled because they are storing it in their inventories. That's a new demand on the ".22 to be stored". That's thousands of rounds in the hands of hundreds of people, who otherwise would not have bought it. Those are rounds that are not filling the demand of the normal shooter that would allow us to get back to normal.

Thousands of rounds in the hands of hundreds vs the need for thousands of rounds in the hands of many thousands, highly likely to be hundreds of thousands! These "WalMart gougers" account for a drop in the bucket and they are at least selling what they have vs hiding it in a closet.

The fact people are willing to pay that $60+ per brick is proof that the demand is still there and is nowhere near being filled. Gougers control only a small percentage of the ammo bought, in this case I am talking about the guy who either jumps line or has inside information and buys all a store has to offer, that's what this thread is all about and not the true gougers like the overpriced merchants such as Cheaper-Than-Dirt. The guys who are doing that is what the myth is about, the idea that the stores get ammo in and these people buy it all up and if it weren't for them there would be ammo on the shelves, that's the myth and it is a myth! These people just can't get that much ammo! They can't get it in bulk form places like Midway or Cabellas and those places stay sold out too, it's mostly WalMart and other retail stores or even the aforementioned stores during one of the big sales.

That (gunshow) gouger was sitting on 3k, probably 6k rounds, that were not moving

That guy at the gunshow is indeed a true "gouger" by offering that ammo at absurd prices but where did he get it? Did he wait in line at Walmart and get into the ammo business? Most likely he was a gunshow merchant who sold ammo all along although he also most likely increased his inventory to take advantage of the shortage but I seriously doubt he got it from Walmart. He can't sit on it long without losing money and if he's not selling then he's not buying any more either! It's THOSE people at Walmart, etc, that are being blamed for the bare shelves and it's those people this discussion is about. Overpriced merchants may, or may not due to other considerations, contribute to the shortage continuing because of your reasoning that the ammo is sitting on the shelves when it otherwise would have satisfied the demand but I honestly don't think there is nearly enough ammo in inventory to fill the need, neither of us can offer anything but an opinion in that area but for certain these legitimate overpriced merchants account for the huge bulk of the "gouging" and they would have had ammo regardless! We could argue that "yeah but now they have a lot more on hand than they did before", but really do they? Where did they get it? Maybe they do, I can't say for sure they don't any more than you can show that they do have all this ammo they are sitting on but they are out for a profit and most likely they have close to what they did before and are demanding an excessive price for their stock-on-hand, they can't make money on ammo sitting in inventory no matter what they price it at! If they could move huge stocks of inventory at the high price and could get more to replace why would they stock a bloated inventory? If they had huge stocks and couldn't replace (the likely scenario) they are sitting on most of it and moving it slowly for a profit but they aren't taking any more from the market so in the end it's a wash.

Talking about gouging merchants is getting off-track anyway, it's the guy at Walmart, etc, that the myth is about. THOSE people simply don't control enough ammo to matter even if they did have a pile of it waiting on buyers, unlikely since they lose money by sitting on inventory but even if they did it's a drop in the bucket. As per your description of them "hundreds of them holding thousands of rounds", no disagreement there but they don't hold this ammo for long or they would lose money and besides that's only hundreds of them holding thousands of the 4.2 BILLION rounds produced each year! Forget about the merchants (I know, I brought up places like CTD), these people that the myth is about sell out of the trunk of their car, at flea markets and and yardsales but mostly they sell online but the point is they DO SELL! That means two things, they are moving the inventory and as long as people are willing to pay that price then the demand remains extremely high!

You're quite right that the demand for ".22 to store" predated (and created) the gougers. The hard core paranoid people have filled their ".22 to store" but probably aren't shooting that much as it's too dear. The competitive shooters are still shooting, but they don't have the reserve they want. The average shooter isn't shooting or able to fill out the reserve he wants. The gougers are still buying and trying to sell at 60-80 bucks a brick

There is absolutely no reason to think the hard core have gotten all they want, they "have filled their 22 store", what in the world would make you think that when the indications are just the opposite with long lines still forming anytime a big merchant has bulk inventory to sell? There is still a HUGE demand to be filled!

The same reason it started in the first place is the same reason it is still going on and showing little signs of improving because little has changed, the demand is nowhere near filled and the guy buying at Walmart that can still sell for $60 is proof of that, if the demand had died down he wouldn't have a market!

And here is where we part ways. If you can still buy it from the store for 20 dollars a brick,you have no real overhead costs for your inventory, and you can sell it at least to the amateur competitive shooters at 60 a brick, why on earth would you stop? You keep buying it up and sitting on it, demand is still there. The amateur competitive shooters will let you grind out a steady enough profit,

Are you kidding??? Remember this is after the average shooter has "gotten his fill", to quote the original statement,

"But I do think that the average shooter is going to hit the point of "I've got enough in the hole" and stop being a hoover and just buy what he intends to shoot. The gougers don't have that. They will keep buying and sitting on it"

Trying to be respectful but that's simply absurd! By that logic they would have been in business long before the panic started? If it's available at the store for $20 a brick why would ANYONE pay them $60????? I can assure you that when the average shooter get's "stocked up while he can", which is the sole reason for this shortage, the "gouger" sneaking to the head of line at Walmart will instantly become an extinct species!

That kind of reasoning is exactly the type of thing that is keeping this shortage alive,

Basically you're saying??? "I have no overhead by operating out of the trunk of my car so I get rich by going to Walmart and buying ammo and reselling it for three times what I paid for it? and on top of that there will be so many of us doing this and we will be buying so much ammo we will keep the shortage going"

Remember we were talking about the "gougers" continuing to buy once the average shooter fills his "SHTF inventory". All this assumes that these "gougers at Walmart are buying significant amounts of ammo (and sitting on it no less!!!) but that's not true in spite of what you apparently believe, there simply aren't that many of them and they can't get that much ammo! In spite of the BS rumors Walmart does NOT sell the bulk of it's ammo to these gougers and in fact sell out to people waiting in lines who buy at a limit. Sure these people do exist and they certainly do get inside info and get there early but the amounts of ammo these people can obtain makes up not only a small percentage of the ammo sold overall and they are NOT sitting on huge piles of it! These are just people like you and me except they saw a chance to make a buck, they are not big time business men controlling vast amounts on inventory.

Wow, your reasoning is exactly the type of thing that is keeping this shortage alive, it's the people waiting in line to buy the ammo that's the problem, "split hairs" if you like but these so called "gougers" are not sitting on ammo for years, they like any other merchant most likely have to keep some on hand between resupplies, although I suspect these small time entrepreneurs more often run out between buys, but the supply MUST keep flowing or they would be losing money!

This whole discussion started because of the myth, and yes it IS a myth, that those people jumping ahead at Walmart and similar places are the reason why people can't find ammo on the shelves but it's simply not true! The shelves were bare before they got involved and remain bare today for the same reason, for every round of ammo produced there are 10 people fighting to get it! That's the bottom line no matter how it's twisted it around.

PerpetualStudent

03-15-2016, 11:36 AM

I think we're mostly quibbling over minutae here.

My only point of contention is that the gougers who are sitting on an inventory that's not moving much (evidence its priced above its "true" market price) are making it worse. And they have an incentive to keep it that way. Without numbers of what kind of inventory they have it's just conjecture.

If you're right and these gun show gougers are not snapping up the ammo when it arrives, and instead it's the average shooter that's snapping it up- then we have nothing to quibble over. Then the ammo is working towards filling the average shooters stash. Which is good and will let us get back to normal.

If on the other hand gougers are getting significant amounts of the ammo when it arrives instead of the average shooter, then it's not filling that demand. Instead it's filling the new demand of the gougers' inventory. To that I add they have an incentive to sit on it and buy more even if it's not moving, they're not "losing money". They have money tied up in inventory but they're not losing it. They don't lose it until they sell below the price they acquired it. And if they can keep buying it up they can effectively keep an illusion of scarcity and that drives market price up. You do see this in small markets a fair bit. Halloween costumes are an odd but good example. If a certain costume is selling really well, some merchants will buy it from competitors, mark it up, and sell it to the public. The same number of costumes exist, but they can create a bottleneck and effectively control supply. It depends entirely on how effective they are at snapping up the stock. But there is always an incentive to make a bottleneck if you can.

I hope you're right. Really do. Sooner the average shooter fills his stash the sooner we can get back to normal. Not sure we can really convince each other at this point. No animosity here, and honestly I think we agree more than we disagree 8-)

BTW I said "hard core paranoid" not average shooter had his fill. The hard core paranoid pay the 60-80 bucks a brick. I think they are mainly out of the equation, I think the massive demand is mainly the average shooter who has gotten more paranoid. Well. I think the competitors want a better stash too. But the really paranoid people have paid for all they will at the 60 bucks a brick.

oldred

03-15-2016, 12:28 PM

What we're disagreeing about is two things, the gouger is not "sitting" on a hoard because they are in it to make money and no other reason, sitting on it is losing money no matter what they ask for it. Sure they stay a few bricks ahead but again that's a drop in the bucket considering the number of "Walmart Gougers", let's call them, so they are not sitting on a significant number of rounds, there's simply not enough of them and they can't get enough ammo for same reasons no one else can! Walmart and others like them only get a certain amount and contrary to what some want to believe the fact is that by far most of it is sold to those in line, I have been in line myself and seen it several times including recently, same thing at Bass-Pro, Cabellas, etc when they have bulk to sell. That's the whole point here, it's a myth that that there are a "bunch of guys at Wallmart" who get it ALL, that's simply not true although there are some that do indeed get more than their share, believe what you like but this is only a tiny part of the overall picture and contrary to the other assumption they are not sitting on piles of it for obvious reasons, if they had piles they couldn't sell they wouldn't still be buying! They are NOT going to buy ammo they can't sell, that just doesn't make sense. Every brick the gouger sells is another brick someone will not buy at Walmart, the over-all end situation is the same it's just that the gouger bought it first and then sold it to someone who otherwise would have bought at the counter, it's a wash in the end.

When the "gougers" completely stop buying then you can bet the shortage is about over and you can bet your bippy that as soon as ammo stats showing up on the shelf you will NOT see these "gougers" trying to buy more, they simply will no longer have a market for it! Say what you like but if every "Walmart gouger" in the country stopped buying today the shelves would still be just as bare and the ammo that some that sell it have in stock would just be in someone's stock, gougers or no gougers, stores gouging or not, store or gouger inventory or not, it's all splitting hairs! The whole bottom line is the hoarder creating the market from excessive buying because if it weren't for that the other things you are trying to blame it on wouldn't even exist! It's too many buyers vying for too little supply that started this in the first place and NOTHING has changed! The shortage was there before the "gougers" and would remain today without them, that should be obvious because the gougers were not even there in the beginning and did COULD NOT cause this shortage since they weren't there to cause it! They are NOT the reason it's still going on today because the "gougers" are totally dependent on the shortage, not the other way around, the shortage created them in the first place and without the shortage they wouldn't even have a market to sell to! Rumors are the root cause of the entire problem but unfortunately there are those that will insist some of the rumors are true, logic and common sense be damned, and as long as that continues the shortage will continue.

BTW I said "hard core paranoid" not average shooter had his fill. The hard core paranoid pay the 60-80 bucks a brick. I think they are mainly out of the equation, I think the massive demand is mainly the average shooter who has gotten more paranoid. Well. I think the competitors want a better stash too. But the really paranoid people have paid for all they will at the 60 bucks a brick

No you didn't you said the average shooter,

But I do think that the average shooter is going to hit the point of "I've got enough in the hole" and stop being a hoover and just buy what he intends to shoot. The gougers don't have that. They will keep buying and sitting on it

No they won't, they won't have a market!

Again that's splitting hairs about average shooter vs hardcore shooter, what defines what? Avarage or hardcore or whatever you want to call them those that are trying to "lay in a supply" are the problem and it makes no difference if they shoot them or hoard them, at least to the supply but those that are buying them to shoot are being more fair to everyone else. Still it makes no difference, when the demand slacks off and people stop the excessive buying, that will obviously happen as a whole and not in groups or categories, then the gougers will stop buying regardless, they simply won't have a market anymore!

PerpetualStudent

03-15-2016, 02:11 PM

You're misunderstanding those two posts.

Yes, I do think the average shooter will (but has not yet) hit that point. I think the hard core paranoid HAVE already hit their fill. At least at the current prices of 60 a brick.

When the average shooter has his fill the gougers will no longer be able to make a profit. At that point. And not before. Will they cease to have an incentive to buy all they can. See my point about creating an artificial bottleneck. As long as they can sell it at any sort of profit- they have an incentive to buy as much as they can. If they can control enough of the supply through their bottleneck- they can keep the prices up higher and delay the average shooter filling his reserve.

I really don't think we're making any progress here. Our disagreement is one we can't resolve. You think the ammo is being eaten mainly by the average shooters. I think gougers are a significant factor that delay recovery. We don't disagree on where the demand is coming from- mainly from the average shooter. We disagree on how much inventory the gougers have and whether they are being successful in making an artificial bottleneck.

I'm content to leave it at that.

oldred

03-15-2016, 04:04 PM

You're misunderstanding those two posts.

I am not misunderstanding at all, you clearly said

But I do think that the average shooter is going to hit the point of "I've got enough in the hole" and stop being a hoover and just buy what he intends to shoot. The gougers don't have that. They will keep buying and sitting on it,

But then you also said it the other way too!

Again, the gougers are NOT "sitting on it", they would not be gouging they would be hoarders if they did!

If they can control enough of the supply through their bottleneck- they can keep the prices up higher and delay the average shooter filling his reserve

Wow, you have some imagination there! The gougers aren't CONTROLLING anything! They are completely at the mercy of the shortage and when it disappears so will their market! They are nothing more than a small group of individuals, actually they arn't even a group but rather a few people like you and me, who are trying to take advantage of a situation to buy a small amount of ammo from stores (mostly WalMart according to the rumor mill) and what they manage to get is a small percentage of the ammo manufactured and sold in spite of what the rumors claim, these "WalMart gougers" CAN'T hold any significant supply at any one time, there are not THAT many of them nor can they buy that much -good grief how much ammo do you think Walmart sells? Then even at that they are selling what they buy right back into the market, you can scream sitting on it from now until doomsday but if they weren't selling it they wouldn't be making any money thus they wouldn't even be buying it.

The manufactures produce and distribute 4.2 billion rounds of ammo annually and you think a handful of clowns with inside info at WalMart, etc are going to bottleneck enough of that production to maintain the shortage? Can't you see the absurdity of that?

First you claimed the AVERAGE shooter (see quote) would finally get "their fill" but the gougers would still be buying (and sitting on it, again see quote) which makes zero sense because once the shooters "get their fill" WalMart would again have ammo to sell and NO ONE is going to be paying $60 a brick anymore so where is the market?

BUT now you are trying to say,

When the average shooter has his fill the gougers will no longer be able to make a profit

Which is it, that or this?

I do think that the average shooter is going to hit the point of "I've got enough in the hole" and stop being a hoover and just buy what he intends to shoot. The gougers don't have that. They will keep buying and sitting on it,

You say the average shooter will "get his fill" and the gougers will keep buying and also say when the average shooter has his fill the gougers will no longer make a profit so if they are no longer making a profit why in the dickens would they still buy?

You are trying to support your reasoning with nonsense like the "hardcore" shooters will "get their fill" while the "average" shooter will still be looking for it, or do you mean the other way around since you have claimed it both ways (again see the above quote). You seem to think there are two totally different groups of shooters out there and one will get satisfied and be happy while the "gouger will still have a market for the other group who will still be trying to buy unavailable ammo???????

You are trying to say that after the shooters (whichever "group") have their SHTF stocks satisfied then the hoarders are going to corner the supply and hold all the ammo to keep prices up, GET REAL MAN!! This is a few unorganized individuals we are talking about, as has been repeatedly pointed out, this has from the start been about the silly claim that the gougers who jump the line at places like Walmart are the cause of the shortage or at least a major contributor to it. Even if they could manage to grab 100% of the stores' supplies after the panic subsides it would take an army of them to control all the ammo being distributed to retailers like WalMart and that doesn't even include the online retailers!

The gougers sucking up the Walmart, etc, supply are going to bottle-neck the market after everyone gets stocked up and keep the shortage alive????? Yeah right!

If you believe that kind of nonsense then you're right, there's no point in discussing it.

DerekP Houston

03-15-2016, 04:21 PM

You think the ammo is being eaten mainly by the average shooters. I think gougers are a significant factor that delay recovery. We don't disagree on where the demand is coming from- mainly from the average shooter. We disagree on how much inventory the gougers have and whether they are being successful in making an artificial bottleneck.

I have to say, I'll believe average shooters are using 22lr again when I see it in the range bucket or on the floor. I can find plenty of any handgun caliber and 223 all around my regular indoor ranges but don't see .22lr shells in the buckets in the qty I used to. I'll fess up and admit I'm part of the problem, I still buy a brick every now and then if I see it on the shelf. I don't make any trips to the stores/LGS any more though unless its for a different reason.

PerpetualStudent

03-15-2016, 04:34 PM

Walkingwolf

03-15-2016, 04:38 PM

Here is the problem with his theory that gougers are not the problem, but hoarders are. How many gougers does he think are out there that buy one box of ammo at a time. To be in business would mean inventory, at least enough to meet demand. I don't think most shooters need a middle man between them and Walmart to buy ammo, they would probably prefer to do that on their own.

oldred

03-15-2016, 04:44 PM

I'm part of the problem, I still buy a brick every now and then if I see it on the shelf.

You, like so many others, are not so much a part of the problem as you are simply caught up in it. Sure folks could just say that they no longer want to be a part of the shortage and will no longer buy ammo but then the ones that do would almost certainly be left out if/when the shortage starts again -which it could do at any time! The problem is much bigger than folks like yourself who simply want ammo and (Wisely!) want to keep some back as a buffer but with any luck we might see a snowball effect as ammo supplies trickle back onto the shelves, my hope is that as people start seeing it they will no longer feel the urgency to buy more and even shoot up some of what they have rather than replace each brick they use. This could result in sagging sales for the ammo manufacturers and a bargain at the sporting goods counter, sounds good anyway so I am going to keep my fingers crossed! :smile:

oldred

03-15-2016, 05:24 PM

Here is the problem with his theory that gougers are not the problem, but hoarders are. How many gougers does he think are out there that buy one box of ammo at a time.

I might ask you the same thing, just how many "gougers" do YOU think it would take at WalMart and how many bricks would they have to hold (which they don't even do, they DO move it!) to make even a small dent in that 4.2 BILLION rounds of ammo produced and sold by the manufacturers, and that doesn't even include any that's imported! That is so ridiculous it's almost funny that anyone would even think such a thing! It is simply absurd to believe that a few, relative to the total number of buyers, individuals using inside info and jumping the line and buying ammo to resell at Walmart (and others) is going to have any effect on that massive amount of ammo being sold, it's simply nonsense! Sure some of them will have a few bricks on hand, just as some will sell out between buys after all they can't get all THAT much where they are getting it, but just how much ammo does Walmart have available? How many bricks do you think it takes to bottle neck over 4 BILLION rounds?????

And the "gougers" don't get anywhere near ALL of it anyway, no matter what you want to think!

4.2 BILLION rounds of ammo manufactured and sold annually and "Bubba" and his buddies are getting inside info at Walmart (etc) to "buy it all up" and that amount of ammo is going to create a shortage from that 4.2 BILLION rounds???? OK-AAAAY!

Walkingwolf

03-15-2016, 05:32 PM

oldred

03-15-2016, 05:44 PM

I've tried very hard to be clear here. You may be getting too frustrated to get my meaning. I don't think I've contradicted myself at all.

The second quote in your last post. In the context of its entirety (and at this point we've both typed essays) was saying "individuals ( which each have their own "enough" measure) will hit that and stop buying." I didn't type because it's so self evident that there is going to be variation in when they hit that. I may have enough before you do. Even though we may both be "Average" shooters and have the same amount of ammo. One by one, the average shooters will get enough and stop hoarding. The Gougers on the other hand will have an incentive until they cannot sell for any profit. That means. Until all the prospective customers are sated.

There's no contradiction there. If you want to keep cherry picking what look contradictions then no one can stop you. I think anyone reading over this thread will see that I have tried present a coherent argument and identify specific points of our disagreement -- while noting our actual points of agreement.

There's no point in letting this devolve further. You may have the last word if you wish, I'm done.

More so than contradictions is the sort of reasoning you keep posting, your claim that gougers from places like Walmart are "sitting on" enough ammo to bottleneck that 4.2 billion annual production when such an idea is absurd to the point of almost being funny! That's the kind of thing I am talking about, just the very idea that a bunch of "Bubbas" with inside info at Walmart could bottleneck the entire nation's 22 ammo supply, spin it any way you like but THAT is what you have been asserting! There is simply no logic in the idea that "gougers" are buying ammo and "sitting on it", there is no profit in doing that so why would they? The very idea of the gouger as was the start of this is the person at Walmart and other places with inside info jumping line and beating others to the ammo so they can resell it, just how many of these people do you think there are? How many bricks would they have to be "sitting on"? Do some math here!

oldred

03-15-2016, 05:50 PM

We don't need the middle man? Do you buy the fuel for your vehicle from somebody selling it out of cans? How about your groceries? Gougers could not be in business if they did not buy as much(hoard) as they can, they are parasites. I am really baffled at how hard you defend them.

I am not trying to defend the gougers and I think I made that clear more than once, not that it matters to you apparently. I am simply addressing the absurd notion that a bunch of clowns jumping line at Walmart is holding hostage an entire Nations 22 ammo supply, that is exactly what you guys are claiming, ridiculous as it is.

tazman

03-15-2016, 09:02 PM

oldred

03-16-2016, 08:47 AM

I don't really care who is buying all the 22 ammo. I just want to know where and when I can go buy some to shoot in my 22 pistol and rifle. I won't be buying it online as the state of Illinois has made it very difficult to do without jumping through a bunch of hoops.
Arguing about who is controlling the supply is counter-productive without more clear facts.
Even if it could be proven without a doubt that some specific group of people is buying all the ammo ahead of retail sales and holding it "hostage" there would be little if anything you/we could do about it.
The only option I see is to wait it out and hope things get better.
I have been fortunate that every time I start to run low, I find a brick or two to get me by.

It's very slowly getting better but it apparently is still going to be a while before this thing returns to anything resembling "normal", in fact we may never see "normal" as we once knew it because shooters buying habits have probably changed forever. No one can find 22 LR because everyone is looking for 22 LR and until the fear of not being able to find it goes away this is going to continue, that's why repeating and insisting on myths is so harmful, it stokes the fear and prolongs the frustration for folks like you who simply want some ammo!

odfairfaxsub

03-16-2016, 09:52 AM

Well I just bought my federal automag off gb for 7 cent a piece. 3500 rounds. Not bad that's w shipping. I've been hawk eyeing everywhere I can for deals they can be had

tazman

03-16-2016, 04:12 PM

Well I just bought my federal automag off gb for 7 cent a piece. 3500 rounds. Not bad that's w shipping. I've been hawk eyeing everywhere I can for deals they can be had

That's a good price. Here they are available but a 8 cents and up. Still better than things were a year ago.

oldred

03-16-2016, 04:46 PM

That's a good price. Here they are available but a 8 cents and up. Still better than things were a year ago.

That's another thing that worries me, that price may just be the new "normal"! Nearly 5 years of obscenely high prices and people thinking they are getting a bargain (actually they are, considering the situation) if they find ammo at 30% to 40% or even more of the pre-panic prices. Unless there is real sagging of sales due to a glutted market from all the stashed away ammo prices aren't likely to drop, or at least very much if they do because as long as it's selling even at the pre-panic levels there is no incentive to drop prices. Figuring in the inflation factor along with that and that 7 or 8 cents may become the cheapest ammo we can find, I sure hope that's wrong and sagging sales may indeed become a reality driving the price down but all we can do is wait and see.

$9.99 bricks at WallyWorld may be a thing of the past but with any luck it might get back down close to that, let's hope so!

Earlwb

03-16-2016, 05:01 PM

I lament the days, as a kid, when I could buy .22's just about everywhere. At the time the local 7-11 store was selling them even. I think I remember at the time that the 22 shorts were going for like 49 cents, the 22 longs for 59 cents and 69 cents got you 22 long rifles. Plus they had sales from time to time too. The CCI mini mags when they came out were all the rage and worked really well too. But even then they were cheaper than heck at the time. But today the prices are shocking to say the least. Dove season was impressive as the 7-11 store would have a tall pyramid of shotgun shells in their boxes on the floor to sell too. Heck they even had a few boxes of the common big game cartridges to sell too, stuff like 30-30, 30-06, etc.

tazman

03-16-2016, 06:33 PM

That's another thing that worries me, that price may just be the new "normal"! Nearly 5 years of obscenely high prices and people thinking they are getting a bargain (actually they are, considering the situation) if they find ammo at 30% to 40% or even more of the pre-panic prices. Unless there is real sagging of sales due to a glutted market from all the stashed away ammo prices aren't likely to drop, or at least very much if they do because as long as it's selling even at the pre-panic levels there is no incentive to drop prices. Figuring in the inflation factor along with that and that 7 or 8 cents may become the cheapest ammo we can find, I sure hope that's wrong and sagging sales may indeed become a reality driving the price down but all we can do is wait and see.

$9.99 bricks at WallyWorld may be a thing of the past but with any luck it might get back down close to that, let's hope so!

In this area $9.99 bricks were a lot longer than 5 years ago. Before Obama, bricks were near $20. If you figure inflation for that length of time, prices would probably be near $30 a brick for the cheap stuff. There are reports of prices in that range now when you can find it at the right stores.

prsman23

03-16-2016, 06:54 PM

Back I remember 14 years ago here in Southern Illinois 500 rounds of Winchester white box cost 14.99. Can't remember how long ago it must have been for 9.99.

DerekP Houston

03-16-2016, 06:54 PM

In this area $9.99 bricks were a lot longer than 5 years ago. Before Obama, bricks were near $20. If you figure inflation for that length of time, prices would probably be near $30 a brick for the cheap stuff. There are reports of prices in that range now when you can find it at the right stores.

That is inline with my memory, I started stocking up pre-obama and it was already 19.99 for the blue box @ walmart. It was much easier to find though! Academy and Walmart have stayed pretty well at the same prices even during the shortage. Gander mountain is a bit higher, but that was the case before hand as well. Last box of remington was ~6c a round iirc.

oldred

03-16-2016, 07:56 PM

Just prior to Sandy Hook the local WalMart here in Tn had a stack of the econo Federal stuff for $9.99 a brick and I picked up ONE for my son! Not two weeks later there was not a single 22 RF round to be had for love nor money.

rbuck351

03-18-2016, 03:49 AM

Well, I'm #2 I have quit buying 22 as I have plenty for my limited use. I still buy a pound of powder or a brick of primers if the price is right and if 22 get down to $20 per brick I will probably buy a couple of cases. I have always liked the older small cartridges like 22H, 25/20, 32/20 and such and have several. At 5cent per rd for 22lr these are cheaper to shoot and more fun. I have a 32cal flint lock that I can shoot all day for a few dollars. When I decide to plink with a 22lr, 1 box of 50rds will last a couple of trips to the range. I have never been one to burn through a brick just for the noise. Demand is caused by the end used. The end user has decided that if he wants to shoot 22lr he better have a stash on his own shelf. Until all the end users have their own safety level on their own shelf, the shortage will continue. Gougers probably add a little to that time frame but I wouldn't think it would be a lot. I think we are on the edge of change whether for good or bad will be apparent soon I think. I am a hoarder but I don't buy when the prices are high.

Earlwb

03-18-2016, 08:32 AM

Maybe it is some kind of a mental disease or something. People just get to hoarding the stuff and can't stop, they just keep getting more and more and making their pile of hoarded ammo ever larger.

This guy here overdoes it too. He stated that this pile shown in the video is only a small part of his hoard. He probably is equivalent to 10 to 20 hoarders hanging on to the stuff. His plea seems to be to get people to stop buying as much ammo, so he can buy more for himself. He even stated that he thinks it is a good investment. That might be true if people keep going crazy and buying at high prices.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5TpPpRLfS0

Of course in a similar vein, you ought to see the magazine hoarders. Some people have like 100 AR mags and they don't even own a AR rifle. Sheesh. Every time the news mentions another assault rifle restriction or ban, they run out and buy more mags for their hoard.

oldred

03-18-2016, 12:32 PM

Gougers probably add a little to that time frame but I wouldn't think it would be a lot

You're more right than you might think when you say "I wouldn't think it would be a lot". First let's look at the rumor being discussed here, "we can't get 22 ammo because the same two or three guys are getting a heads up on it and buying it to sell (the so-called WalMart gougers"). So far it has ranged from "they are the cause" to "they are part of the cause", just a couple of minutes with a calculator puts this in perspective.

The manufacturers are running 24 hours a day 7 days a week cranking out every round they can, this is a windfall for them, so now there are 4,200,000,000 (four billion two hundred million) rounds of ammo being produced annually right now not even including imported ammo, so let's look at what it takes for the store line jumper/gougers to bottleneck that 4.2 billion rounds of ammo as has been suggested. It would take ONE MILLION of our WalMartians averaging for a year "sitting" on 2 bricks of this ammo to control less than 25%, that would still leave 75% on the shelves. Ok I hear some screaming they would be "sitting on" more than two bricks! But would they? After all the whole idea behind them buying it is resell, if they can't sell it why would they be buying if they are just buying it for "gouging" stock?

Ok then let's say these guys are "sitting on" ten times that much or TWENTY bricks each, 10,000 rounds for each and every one of them, now we "ONLY" need 1/10 0f that million or 100,000 of these low life "gougers" stealing all our ammo!

Now there are 3,407 WalMart Supercenters, 647 Sam's Clubs, 470 Discount centers in the USA for a total of 4524 stores that those "gougers" can buy from so that's 22.1 "gougers" for each and every store BUT that does not even factor in that nearly 1/4 of those stores don't even sell ammo! So basically we would have ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND of these "gougers" averaging over 22 "gougers" per store "sitting on" 20 Bricks each (remember they buy this stuff to RESELL, not sit on!) just to bottleneck less than 25% of the available ammo!

The more a person looks at this the more absurd it becomes and while a person can technically argue that every brick a "gouger" holds is that much of a contribution it's the perspective that counts. Obviously there are not 100,000 of these clowns, over 22 for every single store, sitting on 20 bricks EACH (10,000 rounds) controlling less than 25% and leaving 75% on the shelves, very obviously nowhere near 75% of the supply is on shelves anywhere! As comically ridiculous as the numbers are for controlling only less than 25% of the ammo think what it would take to keep the shelves stripped ahead of the rest of the line?

The bottom line is that looking at the total amount of ammo vs the guys with the inside info beating the rest of us to the head of line then quite obviously that is only a tiny percentage of what's sold and even at that they DO resell it right back into the market, that's why they buy the darn stuff in the first place! Every brick a "gouger" sells is a brick that person who bought it won't be buying at Walmart, etc, so that much of it is a wash. Now does anyone actually believe there are 100,000 of these Walmart line jumping cheaters out there sitting on 20 Bricks EACH? And even at that it would only control less than 25% of available stock! Looking at it realistically the very idea that these store line jumpers are the problem is almost beyond absurd!

So yeah while someone can technically argue that the "gougers" are adding to the problem when you look at the actual amount they can logically control vs what's available from the manufactures it's a trivial amount, just as we could also technically say that if all these "gougers" ganged up on a pier and took a whiz it would contribute to the depth of the ocean!

oldred

03-18-2016, 12:39 PM

Maybe it is some kind of a mental disease or something

It certainly is a mental thing, as the famous quote goes "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself", in this case the reason we can't buy ammo is because we are trying to buy up all the ammo faster than it's being produced -based on fear! Unfounded rumors that place the blame everywhere but where it really belongs only stokes this fear, not until we realize that it's going to take all of us to accept the fact that we are simply buying too much too fast will this problem go away. Where is all the ammo going now? That's easy, the small amounts that end up on shelves at a reasonable price simply disappear in to peoples' stash as fast as the clerk can ring them up but the bulk of it is millions upon millions of rounds that places like Midway, Cabellas, etc have back-ordered for people and this gets sent out without ever reaching a shelf in the first place.

Walkingwolf

03-18-2016, 12:58 PM

rbuck351

03-18-2016, 06:20 PM

I have been to several gun shows the last few years and when goomba was first elected and all the ammo dissappeared, 22lr could be found stacked on a few tables at $80 to $110 per brick and was selling. Now there are a few tables with a few bricks each and the price is $40 to $50 per brick and not selling very fast. I think most of the gougers have all they want to speculate on and many of the desperate "I just want to take my kid shooting" type folks have found a brick or someone has given them one. Now that the gougers have all they want to try to sell and aren't moving it very fast, the amount they have now no longer counts in future productions. The only folks that are buying now are the actual shooters (that's a bunch) and the stockpilers that want it for shooting later and want to make sure they have it (that's a bunch).
Just a few years ago, rice was hard to get and everyone that kept a small bag of rice on hand had to have a couple of 50# bags. I suspect everyone on this forum could quit buying 22lr and still shoot all they want at the same price 22lr costs. We all cast boolits. A lee soup can and 5 or 6 grs Red Dot, Unique,W231 pick your powder and a primer and you don't have to worry about 22lr. But even if we all quit buying 22lr it wouldn't matter as there just isn't enough of us. The only thing really causing this is the TENS of MILLIONS of of folks buying 22lr every time they see it on a store shelf. When they get their fill, it will stop, no sooner. Some of us are there, more will get there unless there is another ammo super salesman voted in. Please get out and vote. Obummer was elected by about 26% of the potential voters. About 50% stayed home.

RogerDat

03-18-2016, 07:58 PM

Well of course they are, everyone knows it is hard to come by, right? So if you pick up that box (or three limit) at Wally-Mart then you know it is good for swapping, or helping out friends and family, or putting in your stash so you have it for later. Scarcity breeds hoarding and buying in larger than normal quantity which makes sense. If I can't find it enough times, have seen it for lots more money and then finally there is some then I am going to buy what I need for sure plus some extra since I don't want to not be able to find it next time. Every check anyone does at the store when they have no .22LR increases their willingness to purchase more when they do find it. No reason not to, after all it is worth way more than you are paying for it in a retail store, everyone as has seen it at gun shows for twice the price.

Heck how much would you pick up if you found Linotype at a good price? As much as you could afford, and without apologies either. Eventually the demand will slack off, only so many boxes that so many people will buy for stashing. At least that is what I hope but considering how many primers or how much lead and powder most of us are willing to store..... may be awhile before balance is achieved. What the heck, grandkids are not that old, in their lifetime I'm sure it will be back on the shelves. :-)

I could add after having bought powder at Bass Pro Shop I will probably be all over it at the next gun show, ship to store may avoid hazmat but the powder prices are pretty high. I see Varget at a semi-normal price I'm going to buy Varget, at least while the money holds out.

oldred

03-18-2016, 08:25 PM

I would think that the ammo manufacturers more so than anyone else would know what to expect in the market for the foreseeable future, the fact they are not investing mega-bucks in new manufacturing facilities makes me think that they expect the shortage to end before too long. If they thought this thing was going to last for many years it would seem like they would invest the capital to increase production, obviously they could sell a LOT more ammo right now if they could make even more of it. However it wouldn't make sense to invest all that money into new facilities that would sit idle because of a lack for a market due to the glut of ammo out there, make no mistake there is a glut rather than a shortage! What I mean is that at no time in history has the public held anywhere near as much RF ammunition as they do right now, not even close! Never in history has there been a buying frenzy like this, even the last time it wasn't this bad nor did it last nearly as long. Hopefully as the panic dies down, IF it does, then 22 ammo sales could hit rock bottom for the manufacturers as people not only stop the panic buying but also don't buy nearly as much as they did before because they have so many stashed away, of course this may not happen but I think the manufacturers expect it to otherwise we would probably have seen efforts by them to make the investment in order to increase production rather than just stay with the current capacity for all this time, if this happens then we could see some bargain prices.

SSGOldfart

03-18-2016, 09:13 PM

Dang, that is some stash.
Yep it's a good pile, I wonder if they ship?? I've never had to worry about it for long rifle,now 22mag I looked for two years to find a couple of bricks. I've stepped up to a hornet for my 22 needs.but I'm still on the fence with the idea of converting my 22LR Dan Wesson Revolver to 22 Hornet, guess I have started a new affair with the 22Hornet round.

rbuck351

03-19-2016, 05:37 PM

I currently have 2 22mags. i have about 75rds for them. Somebody gave me 1 box quite a few years back. The half box or so I bought about 30 years ago. That's how much I shoot 22mag and gives a pretty good idea of what I think of the 22mag. I have a 22H and 2 22KH as well as 2 25/20s. Any of these will out perform a 22mag at 1/3 the cost or less. The 22lr is still a good thing at 5 to 6 cents per rd as there is no casting, lubing, brass loss or reloading involved. 8 to 10 cents per rd and my titewad nature takes over. Remington was supposed to have built a new plant last spring for 22lr and if the shortage continues others will as well.

tazman

03-19-2016, 05:49 PM

I walked into a local farm store today and just for grins checked out the bullet counter. They had a Remington 1400 round bucket on the shelf as well as significant stocks of Federal auto-match and CCI high speed. The CCI were overpriced(11 cents per) but the others were 6-8 cents per. Since that was the first bucket I had seen in 5 years, I bought it. The rest is still there.
I asked him about the bucket as far as stocking them. He said they got 15 buckets in 2 days ago. I got the last one.
He said he didn't know when stocks were coming in unless he got word from corporate. Apparently he only gets word about 1 day ahead of arrival.

DerekP Houston

03-19-2016, 05:51 PM

castalott

03-19-2016, 07:05 PM

DerekP Houston

03-19-2016, 07:09 PM

I tend to believe the line about it just not being a profitable product. Honestly how many people used to stockpile 22lr before this whole debacle? I'd keep a few bricks set back for "shtf" but beyond the first few weeks no one would be using 22lr to hunt. Why would they (manufacturers) increase production or invest in another plant to manufacture rimfire when the return is pennies on the dollar? Backordered amounts that are being shipped directly to consumers and online vendors probably account for most of the rimfire hitting the market with the remainder going to your local wally world. I occasionally see it showing up now, and I'm sure (barring hillary winning the election) it will *eventually* get to the point of market saturation. I'm already at the point where I don't honestly *need* more, Im just hedging my bet against the inevitable price increase.

Hogtamer

03-19-2016, 07:16 PM

I actually purchased 5 boxes of CCI maximag 40 JHP .22 WMR at Walmart last week. First I have seen in nearly 2 yrs. $.26 each no real bargain but half price of decent stuff on gunbroker.

oldred

03-19-2016, 07:29 PM

Just a few thoughts....I'm NOT taking sides or stirring the pot....just thinking out loud...

(1) Thru this whole debacle , why hasn't capitalism adjusted output or imports upward ? I thought this country was about 'making a buck'.....

(2) For several years I asked store managers how much 22lr they were getting. The answer was 'almost none or none'. They were not getting any product to sell. it wasn't people were buying it for whatever reason as it wasn't for sale.

(3) Powder and to some extent primers were hard to get at the first of the 22 scare. Powder and primers are plentiful now. 22 has just started to show up locally but the price is still high...too high for me.

(4) I am old enough to remember the gasoline scare of the middle 70s. Just learned in the last few years that was a manufactured shortage for the most part. Someone made a ton of money with that one. Hhmmm....seems familiar here.....

Just thinking out loud......no one needs to get upset....and I'll keep my own counsel on this too...

It would cost several millions of dollars to start up a new plant, machinery has to be specifically built for the task since there are no "off the shelf" machines to make rimfire ammunition, build a new facility, hire and train a new work force, it goes on and on and the the cost is enormous. Still it would seem that it would soon pay for itself and quickly become profitable with demand being what it is but there's the kicker! Not only would those new facilities be staggeringly expensive to start up but it would take a good deal of time for it to be built and go into full production, the "shortage" is not expected to last forever and could very well be over before that shinny new facility was even finished and/or loaded the first round, or at least it could easily be un-needed before it even paid for itself. The so-called shortage could fade before long and with all the ammo people have stashed away this very profitable 24/7 production schedule the manufacturers are enjoying right now could quite easily develop into a slump as people not only stop adding to their stockpile but actually start dipping into that stockpile rather than buying. If this happens, and it's a real possibility, then those multi-millions of dollars could very well end up paying for an idle facility that's simply un-needed.

odfairfaxsub

03-19-2016, 07:35 PM

Found 22 Mag at dicks for 13 a box but only bought what I could afford at time 5 boxes.... Gunbroker 2 weeks later for 18 dollars a box bought 750 rounds

oldred

03-19-2016, 08:29 PM

I have not seen 22 Mag on a shelf in well over two years with one exception, I discussed these a while back. I was in the local Co-Op Farm Store and spotted a box of Winchester 22 Mag mixed up among dusty boxes of various rifle/pistol and shotgun ammo, I don't know how long they had been there or what conditions they had been subjected to but they were marked $9.99 so of course I jumped on them. They were junk! Some of them had to be rotated and re-snapped before they would even fire and two of them didn't fire even after multiple tries. Out of the twenty or so I did shoot several of those split the cases and/or sounded quite different than others so after firing about half them I just tossed the rest of them before something more serious happened. I have one full box of 50 CCI MaxiMags and about 35 rounds of the CCI in another box and then my 22 Mag is going to be useless until I rechamber into something more available! For a short time I toyed with the idea of rechambering to 218 Bee since I have a few cases, dies, access to a reamer and I have always liked that round but I quickly discovered that 218 Bee loaded rounds and even empty brass is about as scarce as Dodo birds so I scratched that idea. I am thinking now maybe that the 22 Hornet just might be the answer but for sure I am no longer interested in the 22 WMR and I no longer even look for those things, I probably wouldn't buy any now if I ran across them.

castalott

03-20-2016, 01:40 PM

Maybe not build a new plant but start up another line? Wouldn't one or two of these companies have enough spares and enough space to add another line?

I have just reread most of the NRA publication " Ammunition Making" by George E Frost. On page 79, he talks about rimfire loading. Now you have to have the automated machinery to draw, rim, trim, and prime a case. Also a header machine to make bullets and then to lube them. Not as easy as I make it sound but not rocket science either.

His example is Squires Bingham in the Philippines in the (1980s?). Four people using the plate method powdering, placing the bullet , and crimping 500 cartridges at a time ( with $5,000 of equipment at that time) could easily produce 200,000 cartridges a shift.

No, I am not an expert. I only know what I read and maybe not even that! Just more food for thought....

oldred

03-20-2016, 01:50 PM

From what I have heard I think some of them have done or are doing what you are describing there, those bean counters working for the manufacturers are plenty smart and will do whatever is the most profitable, or at least what they determine to be the most profitable and those guys understand this market better than anyone.

Earlwb

03-20-2016, 09:24 PM

oldred

03-20-2016, 10:28 PM

I tend to suspect that the ammunition companies likely don't want to expand production all that much. Heck they might have even helped the fear mongering causing the shortages too. Supply and demand, if demand is up and supply is low, then the prices go up. So they likely get to make more money trying to keep up with demand as is.

I was going through some stuff at home and I ran across this box of 22 LR's I forgot that I had. I must have bought it ages ago from the price tag. I don't remember buying it either.

Anyway those were the days. Unfortunately those days are long gone now.
164105

I don't think the manufacturers are complicit in any conspiracy to keep the shortage going because they have actually held the line on pricing when they could have gouged us to the bone, but they have not and in fact if you visit their websites they say quite clearly that the real problem is panic buying. There has been some pricing increases due to inflation (that part would have gone up anyway) and component cost increases such as powder and even a substantial cost increase due to overtime/added employee costs and other expenses associated with a 24/7 production schedule. They have pretty much held the line and passed on those increases, which is only fair, without resorting to huge profit margin increases which they probably could have gotten away with to increase short term profits. These ridiculous prices we are seeing is almost entirely at the retail level so little if any blame goes to the manufacturers, they are making a mint without gouging us due to the sellers market and I suppose they determined that long term business reputation would be better than short term profit taking that could eventually backfire on them.

RogerDat

03-21-2016, 03:10 PM

flyingmonkey35

03-23-2016, 09:11 PM

Saw this today at the gun range I went to shoot by big bore rifles.

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160324/9043a99cd131d0227cab255774ef07d7.jpghttp://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160324/eb86e1fa7c4fa191cf09b17ffc3cbdc7.jpg

Iowa Fox

03-23-2016, 09:31 PM

The pic in the OP is probably some CMP ammo that found its way there for profit.

flyingmonkey that's a heck of a stash!! I really like Aquilla and love the primer smell, kind of like the old time Hoppes to me.

AK Caster

03-25-2016, 02:59 PM

I buy a brick or two of CCI SV or Blazer anytime I see it in a store for a reasonable price, and that's around $35 a brick or less. Don't care how much I end up with. The worse that can happen is my son will have plenty to shoot after I die.

cosmoline one

03-26-2016, 12:32 PM

The problem with the ammo companies(and most in general) is they only look at the next quarter and not the long run. This mess has been about 8 years long. In my neck of the Woods there's been less shooters at the range.beginners in age and experience usually start with 22lr. It's almost a generation of shooters they are losing. If they thouhht of it that way they should open more production. Also I find it hard to believe they wouldn't recoup there investment after 8. Or more years!

tazman

03-26-2016, 04:57 PM

It would seem that someone would attempt to import 22lr ammo from outside the country in sufficient quantity to help clear up the shortage. I have seen some(Armscor, Aguila) but not in quantity to make a dent in the shortage.
I would have expected more to show up.

Earlwb

03-26-2016, 11:13 PM

The Chinese tried to under cut or undersell everyone and amazingly enough the government agreed when the ammo companies all complained vigorously. So Norinco ammo and some others wound up being not sold here. The tariffs made their ammo expensive then instead of super cheap. That was back when the Chinese would flood the market with surplus military rifles, etc. They would overload a importer who couldn't take any more in, fire them and get another importer then keep on flooding the marketplace and repeat the process.

I see some foreign made ammo being sold here. Usually from Philippines (Armscor), Mexico or Europe and Russia etc.

HangFireW8

03-28-2016, 09:28 AM

The manufacturers are not running 24/7 any more.

Mica_Hiebert

03-28-2016, 02:32 PM

The manufacturers are not running 24/7 any more. not sure which manufacturer you are referring to but CCI is running 24/7 except for holidays. I know it sounds good on paper to just buy more machines, hire more people and make more amunition but it is not that simple. You have to secure the buildings to house the machines, this requires local, state and federal permitting and inspections for all building stages since buildings have to meet specific requirements for the explosive priming/propelant compounds, machines have to be built and are not cheap, we're talking 10s of millions for the machines to make the 22 cases, 10s of millions for more machines to swage the projectiles, securing more raw products such as lead, brass, propelant, and the compounds in the priming. Hiring and training the staffing upgrading the antiquated electrical on the plants to run all the new machinery so you are talking cutting through miles of red tape burocracy and investing hundreds of millions on something that has a very little profit margin for the manufacturer and could bankrupt them if the current demand dropped off... most manufacturers are running 24/7 and implementing "lean manufacturing" to make current machines and staffing more efficient and profitable without investing them selves out of bussiness to provide the needs of what could be a bubble market.

oldred

03-28-2016, 04:38 PM

not sure which manufacturer you are referring to but CCI is running 24/7 except for holidays. I know it sounds good on paper to just buy more machines, hire more people and make more amunition but it is not that simple. You have to secure the buildings to house the machines, this requires local, state and federal permitting and inspections for all building stages since buildings have to meet specific requirements for the explosive priming/propelant compounds, machines have to be built and are not cheap, we're talking 10s of millions for the machines to make the 22 cases, 10s of millions for more machines to swage the projectiles, securing more raw products such as lead, brass, propelant, and the compounds in the priming. Hiring and training the staffing upgrading the antiquated electrical on the plants to run all the new machinery so you are talking cutting through miles of red tape burocracy and investing hundreds of millions on something that has a very little profit margin for the manufacturer and could bankrupt them if the current demand dropped off... most manufacturers are running 24/7 and implementing "lean manufacturing" to make current machines and staffing more efficient and profitable without investing them selves out of bussiness to provide the needs of what could be a bubble market.

Agree 100%, it's all to easy for us to " armchair quarterback" and say the the ammo companies should be doing this or that but those mega-million dollar corporations are pretty sharp when it comes to making a profit so if it was in their interest to build new plants and would make them a buck they would have done it already. Very likely those new plants would soon be sitting idle if they had of built them and they likely would start losing big bucks on them long before that kind of investment was paid for, new factories are built for sustained long term production and even a ten year spurt in demand is not usually reason enough for that kind of expenditure if a slump is expected to follow. There is simply no way the kind of demand we are seeing today is going to be permanent, the slump will come either through a saturated market or a worse case scenario of Government restrictions but either way it WILL eventually happen.