The future of rimfire ammo?

[Mauser48]

What is your guys predictions about the future of all rimfire ammo? How is it for you guys now? 17 hmr doesn't seem too hard to find. 22 mag is pretty hard to find online and in stores and it seems to be about the cost of decent 223. Online its around $20 for 50! 17 hmr is only about $11. 22lr is hard to find locally. Do you think this will all calm down?

[high standard 40]

It will depend largely on the next presidential election. It could produce another buying frenzy.

[aspangler]

All available local here without much limit on how much except the 22 mag. Can't find it here. Ammo companies say it is not in as much demand as it once was so the just do seasonal runs.

[DerekP Houston]

I got so fed up with the last round of shortages and the price hikes. It is now more fun to cast for the 38 spec and plink in the revolver or levergun.

[RogerDat]

The .22 LR shortage was pretty much all shooter/scalper induced. It does seem to be fading now. Month ago at gun show saw table full of assorted (as in every brand and size in small quantities of each) with a sign that said "Make a Reasonable Offer". Was a painted wood sign too, not a quick and dirty marker and cardboard sign. I'm thinking this means I was seeing a scalper getting stuck with inventory. Seem to recall this person had about 10 ft. of table piled with assorted brands/sizes before, now about 6 ft. with the sign.

Prices have fallen at same show from $57 for 333 rnd box to $43 for that same box. When/If you find that item at Wal-Mart it is $25 out the door. Have seen green tip for $1 a round for a brief period during that "news" cycle on AP ban. Now .223 is settled down some, and is available.

Next election will probably influence the market, aka panic buying vs. relaxed regulations creating a dumping mentality from vendors. What is past is a couple of powder manufacturers that had fires and/or plant issues are now producing in quantity again. Already seeing regional availability return to normal, with other regions still having tight availability.

Considering how ubiquitous the .22 LR is in firearms I don't see it going away in the near future. A few million firearms in private hands chamber it, not a market that won't be served by some company or another. Me I'm thinking I should look into a nice bolt action in .22 with a decent scope. Maybe a Ruger pistol too. While they are still cheap due to a perceived scarcity of ammo.

[Mauser48]

Considering how ubiquitous the .22 LR is in firearms I don't see it going away in the near future. A few million firearms in private hands chamber it, not a market that won't be served by some company or another. Me I'm thinking I should look into a nice bolt action in .22 with a decent scope. Maybe a Ruger pistol too. While they are still cheap due to a perceived scarcity of ammo.[/QUOTE]

Yeah thats what got me to posting this. Im looking into buying a CZ 455 varmint. Not sure if I should get the 22 or 17 hmr first. Probably 22. Do you guys think 17 hmr is here to stay?

[DerekP Houston]

I have seen plenty of 17 hmr even during the shortage. 17 mach2 is dead from what I can tell ;).

[Mauser48]

Yeah it seems like the 17 hmr is the most successful .17 cal rimfire. 17 mach 2 is too slow and 17 wsm hasn't had the best accuracy reports.

[maxreloader]

There is almost always plenty of the CCI "Choot em' up" 22Mag (overpriced imo) locally and more often than not a decent selection of 22lr and the occasional batch of shorts or quiets. I would love to know how the Cannucks are getting it back across the border these days... there are lots of them plates in the parking lot just hours after it hits the shelves lol! I dont see 22 rimfire going anyplace anytime soon.

[tazman]

I have been finding the Federal auto match 325 round boxes here for $25 lately. Down quite a bit from the $45 of a few months ago. CCI and other good name brand have still been bringing premium prices but those prices are dropping.
I think 22lr will be here forever. It will just be hard to find from time to time.

[Mauser48]

Yeah im not worried about 22 going anywhere im worried that it will always be hard to get.

[lefty o]

its not hard to get now. every store ive been in lately that carries ammo has had at least some 22lr on the shelf, and at fairly normal prices. im sure by now all those paranoid the gvmnt is trying to get me people that swore up and down for 2yrs that the gvmnt was buying all the 22lr ammo are, and should be feeling extremely foolish by now. if the average american would quit being a paranoid freak this whole hoarding, panic buying episode would never have happened, but until you change the mentality you had best keep at least some on hand if you like to shoot.

[oldred]

its not hard to get now. Every store ive been in lately that carries ammo has had at least some 22lr on the shelf, and at fairly normal prices. Im sure by now all those paranoid the gvmnt is trying to get me people that swore up and down for 2yrs that the gvmnt was buying all the 22lr ammo are, and should be feeling extremely foolish by now. If the average american would quit being a paranoid freak this whole hoarding, panic buying episode would never have happened, but until you change the mentality you had best keep at least some on hand if you like to shoot.


Amen!!!!!!!!

[Mauser48]

Yeah theres no shortage at all of 22 its just people buying it up then reselling it trying to price gouge.

[lefty o]

you can buy it in stores, and online for normal retail prices, its readily available again.

[dragon813gt]

you can buy it in stores, and online for normal retail prices, its readily available again.

Maybe by you, but it isn't here. I haven't looked online so I won't comment on that. But the places that do have it haven't brought their prices down.

[aspangler]

Only paying 29 out the door here for Remington 500 round boxes.

[oldred]

Only paying 29 out the door here for Remington 500 round boxes.


Where in Tn are you finding it? I am in NE Tn and the only 22LR I can find is at gougers prices!



and online for normal retail prices, its readily available again


Really????? Where?

Every major shooting supplier I have looked at that has even close to regular prices are all out of stock! OCCASIONALLY some of the places will have some to offer, Wiedner's for instance a couple of weeks ago, but it always sells out quickly and prices are far from what was considered "normal" before the panic and in fact are very high at most places that actually have any to sell! "Readily available again" is hardly the way I would describe the situation, at least from what I see here locally and can find online, "better than last year" maybe but it's still hard to find in most places and prices are still way too high when it does show up, places like WalMart that sell at closer to "normal" prices (when they even have it!) still sell out in a matter of hours!


The panic may be easing somewhat but it's still far from over!

[BAGTIC]

I am getting old. I remember when as a teenager .22 LR were 50 cents a box and I thought it was overpriced then.

[wv109323]

I live near the WV/Ky. border. The "norm" here is that people are waiting at Wal-mart to snatch up the 22LR as soon as it hits the shelf.
Very little 22 can be found at other places and prices are still above what I will pay.
With lead and brass prices declining .22LR ammo should be less in the near future. I would think 4 cents per round will be tops.
The problem will be people will keep a few thousands rounds as a comfort zone and not a few hundred as before the panic.

[GhostHawk]

Well I have not cleaned out any stores, have not bought any for a year.

I did have a pretty nice stash passed on by my father in law that I have slowly been working through.
New stuff I buy is all online, and I watch for reasonable prices in brands that I trust. Mostly down to CCI, Federal although I do have 3 bricks of the Armscore made in the Phillipene's.

Mostly I have put the .22s away and shoot other things.
I can shoot .357 mag for less than .22lr and a whole lot more fun Same for 9mm in a Hipoint carbine.

Yeah its ugly,but dang it shoots! and it shoots cheap! Light loads of Red Dot, no gas checks needed, no tin or antimony required, I'm shooting pretty much range lead with just a touch of lino, or clip on WW, and it works fine in the carbine.

If I want to push the range I'm going to reach for tbe .223 and a cast boolit over more red dot.

If I need a bigger boom well that costs more.

Shoot what you got, find a way to make it work on a budget and everyone's happy.

[Ring3]

Wheeling WV Cabela's has 22 ammo every time I visit. Brands vary though. Rem, Win, Fed, CCI bulk packs. Usually have some match stuff too.

Prices higher than the old norm but not outrageous.

[shtur]

I was fortunate to buy all I could ever want before the buying/gouging/hording spree hit. I started buying 2 bricks every time it went on sale, because I wanted enough when I retired that I would not have to spend any of my retirement money buying it. My plans worked out...for once. I will not have to buy .22lr ammo for many years, if any.

[onehousecat]

Where I live, IF you see 22s on the shelf, 22 LR are 15 cents a round and 22 magnums are 40 cents a round. There may come a time in future in which I will pay those prices, but I doubt living that long.

[GhostHawk]

Gunbot still shows 9 cents a round as being the best price online. I think you could probably better that if you happen to be at the right place at the right time.

Far as I can see this is the new standard base price for .22lr.

[contender1]

Locally,,, the big box stores don't have any 22 LR. (Wally world, Dicks, Field & Stream, etc.) Smaller shops have some but they still have over-inflated prices.
To me,, a 22 LR has less lead, less powder & by using history,,, costs less to produce than other ammo. But to see prices at .05-.10 per round is overpricing.
Many say "it's about back to normal" and are paying $25+ for a box of "cheap" bulk stuff in 333 packs (or close to that.)
I recall that Federal bulk packs of 550 rounds were $18-$20 before the craze. To me, counting inflation, cost of materials etc,,, a bulk pack of 550 should be selling for about $20-$22 now, before I'd call it "normal."

Will .22 LR go away? Not likely unless the guberment shuts it all down. Remington is building another plant for it.

Add in the fact that a lot of shooters are not casters & do not have a source for ammo other than factory supplied. Nope, not going anywhere.

[Ballistics in Scotland]

The factories, foreign and domestic, are geared up to make it, and probably make a lot more of it than they did on a more stable market. I think market forces will cause the price to revert to normal when shooters stop hoarding, or replenishing stocks they ran down.

It would be interesting if any trade member can tell us whether the manufacturers and wholesalers are in on the "what the market will stand" pricing, or if it is just something that happens after the stocks leave their hands.

I think the .22LR is here to stay as a major market item. I can see the Magnum becoming an expensive rarity, though surely not vanishing altogether like the 5mm. Remington rimfire.

One thing that annoys me about Eley rimfires is that in the 1960s they advertised their High Velocity as having a velocity of 1400ft./sec., which at a hundred yards made it superior in all respects to the hypervelocity rounds which were afterwards developed. Now their nearest equivalent is only 1200. If they did 1400 then, they could do it now, and if they can't, they didn't.

[Bonz]

I've bought some recently for 0.07 per round. Just need to watch for sales and buy quickly. I can't see 22LR ever going away because so many companies are producing them now.

[Mauser48]

Before the craze the cheapest it was for me was $25 for 500. Thats fair in my opinion but I guess a lot of people used to get it for about $18. Cci makes 4 million rounds a day alone so theres obviously no shortage.

[rbuck351]

All the companies making 22LR are selling it faster than they can produce it. With a market like that, do you seriously think they are going to stop making it. It doesn't matter what you're selling, if people want more than you can make you've got a sweet deal going. 7 years now of producing 22LR 24/7 and still can't keep up. I'm surprised there aren't several new producers of 22LR. Look at all the new companies making ARs in the last 7 years. It has to be easier to make a 22LR round than a complete AR. On the other hand, some of this 17 rim fire stuff isn't selling well and I suspect there may only be one in the end. One thing I have noticed is as the surpressors are becoming more popular so is std vel 22lr and for that matter there seems to be more variety of hi speed than ever before as well. The next presidential election should cause another major change in ammo availability. Could be good, could be bad, depending on who is elected.

[dtknowles]

The factories, foreign and domestic, are geared up to make it, and probably make a lot more of it than they did on a more stable market. I think market forces will cause the price to revert to normal when shooters stop hoarding, or replenishing stocks they ran down.

It would be interesting if any trade member can tell us whether the manufacturers and wholesalers are in on the "what the market will stand" pricing, or if it is just something that happens after the stocks leave their hands.

I think the .22LR is here to stay as a major market item. I can see the Magnum becoming an expensive rarity, though surely not vanishing altogether like the 5mm. Remington rimfire.

One thing that annoys me about Eley rimfires is that in the 1960s they advertised their High Velocity as having a velocity of 1400ft./sec., which at a hundred yards made it superior in all respects to the hypervelocity rounds which were afterwards developed. Now their nearest equivalent is only 1200. If they did 1400 then, they could do it now, and if they can't, they didn't.

Did you ever shoot any of the 1400 FPS Eley stuff across a chronograph? I have shot some of the Aguila Interceptor 40 gr. RN thru my Anchuez Exemplar with a 10 inch barrel and it chrono'd from 1329 to 1471 with the average around 1410 fps. Isn't Aguila stuff licenced by Eley?

Tim

[35remington]

I have the depressing impression that bare shelves will be a more frequent theme in the coming years for rimfire ammo as the gun control idea gets even more politicized and events conspire to make people panic buy and hoard.

Here's the reality: Profit margins are small. Everyone shoots .22's and finds them useful, and wants to have an adequate supply.

These two things conspire to make the following truth: Existing supplies will be sold out immediately upon the next buying/hoarding panic, and low profit margins conspire to ensure that manufacturers will replace existing stocks slowly at best because they don't make any money if they devote too much production to making .22's. Production of 22's is at a crawl compared to how fast we deplete it when hoarding and panic buying.

Not a good recipe for plentiful future supply over long periods of time. Most people realize this, and for a long time try to grab as much as they can. Buying patterns need to return to the mentality of "only a few boxes will do me" as if the supply was expected to be stable for a long period for things to truly get back to normal.

And as I said, that likely ain't happening. Things will probably have not stabilized by the time Hillary gets elected, and here we go all over again.

Need small animal/varmint/plinking ammo of stable availability? Get a small caliber centerfire and load your own. That's my future prediction and I'm currently in the process of making sure I can carry that out for an extended period of time. Relying on someone else to make your ammo is a poor policy in the time of panic and hoard buying.

It is unfortunate we have to discover this in this particular way.

To respond to the comments above, of course they will still make it. The problem is, they won't make it fast enough when panics set in, and I see these being more frequent in the future. Not less. So confidence that they will still make it does not translate to an assurance you will get it when you want it.

The question really asked? "Is the future of rimfire ammo gonna be spotty availability for extended periods of time?"

The answer to that is "most likely, especially if a Democrat is elected, and if Democrats heavily populate Congress, and contentious events keep happening."

Respond as you see fit to forestall that event. Most people's response is to buy as much as they can when they can......and supply keeps lagging as a result.

[oldred]

I am beginning to think maybe we will never see plentiful supplies like we once did, not only are the literally multitudes of people who before might keep a couple of boxes on hand now trying to stash away thousands but now we have hordes of people who don't even shoot grabbing it because "It will be worth a bundle soon"! The unfounded rumor that RF ammunition is a guaranteed profit when it can be found is getting to be a bigger problem than those who want to put back a stash as a hedge against the next panic (which almost surely will happen!), I personally know of at least two such people and I'm certain it has gotten to be very common. Anytime ANYTHING takes on a perceived value "Gold-Rush-Fever" sets in then the rumor feeds on itself and may last for many years -or at least until misguided regulation causes a real buying shortage.

[35remington]

"and may last for many years -or at least until misguided regulation causes a real buying shortage."

Then it's still a shortage, but for real reasons instead of imaginary ones. Unfortunately to the buyer there's no real difference between the two as there's no ammo either way.

And we're seeing just that happen now. It's been three years plus for this one, and it's still shortages everywhere. CCI's at the local Scheel's lasted for all of four hours. They had a lot of them to start.

[freebullet]

22 lol...Um.... I don't care.

I cast boolits and reload ammo therefore 22 and it's availability are of zero concern to me and, I find it hilarious that so many on a casting forum would be panty wadded or that we have 100 threads gripping over it. The only folks I feel sorry for in the 22 nonsense are the kids.

[oldred]

"and may last for many years -or at least until misguided regulation causes a real buying shortage."

Then it's still a shortage, but for real reasons instead of imaginary ones. Unfortunately to the buyer there's no real difference between the two as there's no ammo either way.




Yep it's still a shortage either way, looking at the numbers it could take years before those who want to "build a stash" are satisfied and the longer this lasts the worse the Gold-Fever will get! There are many thousands upon thousands of people who will still right now buy every round they can find at a decent price and when those folks are multiplied times the thousands of rounds it will still take to satisfy them it can amount to all the production for quite a while yet, probably several years.

[lefty o]

I have the depressing impression that bare shelves will be a more frequent theme in the coming years for rimfire ammo as the gun control idea gets even more politicized and events conspire to make people panic buy and hoard.

Here's the reality: Profit margins are small. Everyone shoots .22's and finds them useful, and wants to have an adequate supply.

These two things conspire to make the following truth: Existing supplies will be sold out immediately upon the next buying/hoarding panic, and low profit margins conspire to ensure that manufacturers will replace existing stocks slowly at best because they don't make any money if they devote too much production to making .22's. Production of 22's is at a crawl compared to how fast we deplete it when hoarding and panic buying.

Not a good recipe for plentiful future supply over long periods of time. Most people realize this, and for a long time try to grab as much as they can. Buying patterns need to return to the mentality of "only a few boxes will do me" as if the supply was expected to be stable for a long period for things to truly get back to normal.

And as I said, that likely ain't happening. Things will probably have not stabilized by the time Hillary gets elected, and here we go all over again.

Need small animal/varmint/plinking ammo of stable availability? Get a small caliber centerfire and load your own. That's my future prediction and I'm currently in the process of making sure I can carry that out for an extended period of time. Relying on someone else to make your ammo is a poor policy in the time of panic and hoard buying.

It is unfortunate we have to discover this in this particular way.

To respond to the comments above, of course they will still make it. The problem is, they won't make it fast enough when panics set in, and I see these being more frequent in the future. Not less. So confidence that they will still make it does not translate to an assurance you will get it when you want it.

The question really asked? "Is the future of rimfire ammo gonna be spotty availability for extended periods of time?"

The answer to that is "most likely, especially if a Democrat is elected, and if Democrats heavily populate Congress, and contentious events keep happening."

Respond as you see fit to forestall that event. Most people's response is to buy as much as they can when they can......and supply keeps lagging as a result.

all rimfire production machinery is dedicated to production of rf ammunition, it cant be changed over to something else, therfore the manufacturers run it 24/7. if they arent running, they arent making money, therefore it runs non stop.

[Good Cheer]

Rifle or revolver, for small game and plinking you won't beat a plain vanilla cast .38 Spl with just enough powder to get it on it's way.

But I'd like to try to beat it with a .28-38Spl. in a 1892.

[35remington]

lefty, do you suppose the manufacturers expand their ability to make ammo at a greatly or even significantly increased rate when supplies are short?

No, they do not. Not really. The bigger problem is they don't have the ability to greatly or even significantly increase production capacity.

Let me quote myself:

"......they don't make any money if they devote too much production to making .22's."

That statement is still accurate despite your commentary. No extra machinery is purchased and brought online to make lots more ammo that generates low profits and has little ability to repay the cost of new machinery. Raw material is not greatly diverted to make more .22's because the existing machinery is already maxed out. Sure, they're running at full capacity.....which is completely inadequate capacity for high demand.

Full production capacity is geared toward average demand, not high demand. Full production capacity is predicated on the fact that it isn't all that needed right away and adequate existing stocks take up the average demand, with only the relative trickle representing full production capacity needed to maintain existing supplies at the dealers.

Noticed any 22's for three years? What would you say that says about "full production capacity" versus demand? Given it's been three plus years, what does that say about the full production ability to keep up?

All other ammo types have been restocked by now and have been for some time. Pistol. Centerfire rifle. Shotgun. Not .22's. Makes my comments seem rather on point.

The sad fact is it takes only a small spike in demand to crash the production capacity, and this is a big spike in demand over a long period of time.

If you don't mind, I don't feel the need to retract anything I stated.

[GhostHawk]

I've been leaning more towards the bator bullet, no check and 4.5 grains of Red Dot trying to hold just under the 1400 fps mark. Very little louder than a .22lr, similar speed, bit more punch with 55 grains vs 40. As accurate or better than most .22 rifles I've shot, there are perhaps a few exceptions. The ones I've shot at 100 yards if I aimed at a rabbits eye they would all have landed within 3/4 inch. I think if I was shooting golf balls at 100 I would hit most. Certainly minute of squirrel at up to 100 yards and potentially farther.

Partially because the little 55 gr bator goes through a third the lead of a 7.62 or .357.
Partially because I'm sitting on a couple thousand CCI small rifle primers, and that is the only caliber I reload that uses them. Partially because the Red Dot does not seem to care which brass it goes into. Partially because the 4.6 grain load seems to work well across a wide variety of calibers, so I can just set my measure, and just top it off as needed.

If I want to load something else I make a dipper or hand weigh each charge. (or both)

I have 2 rifles and 2 pistols that shoot .22lr and all are cleaned, oiled and stashed away till further notice.
I have enough I could shoot them if I desired, but I just don't have the desire.

I do take the old Ruger 10/22 to the range once a year, nostalgia mostly.
It was THE rifle when I owned mostly shotguns, we have many a mile under our boots together.

But for sheer fun I am as likely now to reach for a 9mm carbine or the big .357 mag. When you are shooting for kicks, might as well get a good one.

[35remington]

For domestic rimfire plants, ATK/Federal (http://www.federalpremium.com/) has one in Minnesota, there is the ATK/CCI plant is in Idaho, Remington (http://www.remington.com/) has one in Arkansas, and Winchester (http://www.winchester.com/) has one in Oxford, Miss. The latter used to be in East Alton, Ill., but in order to remain profitable and competitive, Olin Corp. moved the plant about a decade ago. Notice those two words, “profitable” and “competitive.” One of the reasons we shoot so much .22 is that it is cheap. At least compared to center-fire ammunition. Granted, material costs (i.e., lead and copper) have increased but at around 5 to 10 cents a round in normal conditions, .22 Long Rifle is remarkably reliable and inexpensive. But it is not terribly profitable. Much like the promotional dove loads that hit every big box store in the country this time of year (remind me to pick up a case), they are designed for mass production and have low profit margins. Pricing, at least from the manufacturer, is extremely sensitive and competitive. They sell huge amounts of rimfire and dove loads, but no company’s bottom line financial success is made by these products. Loss leaders or thin margins, they may not be pork bellies, but sure seem like commodities.
If you have even seen .22 being made (and my friend Mike Bussard wrote an excellent piece (http://www.americanrifleman.org/article.php?id=14347&cat=27&sub=28) on how they actually make it), you know it is a huge capital expense to set up a rimfire plant. It’s not like you can order a high-speed rimfire loading machine out of the Staples catalog and set it up in your garage. It takes time, land and, literally, a lot of dollars to establish a rimfire factory. Then you have to train the workers and ensure the safety of your workers and the area in which the plant resides. Priming rimfire cases is not something best left to amateurs. The question is, though, would it be worth it to go to the expense of, say, building a $250 million rimfire plant to make your company’s money back at a penny a round over the next 10 to 20 years? The answer, so far, has been a resounding no.
This demonstrates prudence on the part of ammo manufacturers. No one can predict how long the current bubble will last. It has more than burst on the firearms side as demand for new firearms has predictably dropped from last year’s hyper-inflated levels. A company cannot plan soundly based upon a bubble. But a company can plan based on known variables. Variables such as a substantial increase in the number of .22s sold and a change in the type of .22s being shot by their new owners. This may make a new rimfire plant worth it. Time will tell.
There are, literally, millions more .22 Long Rifle firearms owned and shot that have entered civilian hands in recent years. Based on BATF data, Sturm, Ruger (http://www.ruger.com/) alone in 2012 (the most recent year for which date is available) produced 254,991 “up to .22” pistols, in addition to 68,001 “up to .22” revolvers. Heritage (http://www.heritagemfg.com/) in Florida made 88,778, while North American Arms (http://www.northamericanarms.com/) trailed with a still impressive 54,511. And remember, those “up to 22” pistols made by Ruger were pretty much all semi-automatics with 10-round capacity magazines. If each new Ruger buyer purchased just 100 rounds, that is an increase in demand of 25,499,100 just for those buyers. If they bought 200 rounds, you are looking at an increase of demand of roughly 51 million rounds.




Attributable to another source!

As I said.....production capacity just ain't there to meet this kind of demand.

[lefty o]

lefty, do you suppose the manufacturers expand their ability to make ammo at a greatly or even significantly increased rate when supplies are short?

No, they do not. Not really. The bigger problem is they don't have the ability to greatly or even significantly increase production capacity.

Let me quote myself:

"......they don't make any money if they devote too much production to making .22's."

That statement is still accurate despite your commentary. No extra machinery is purchased and brought online to make lots more ammo that generates low profits and has little ability to repay the cost of new machinery. Raw material is not greatly diverted to make more .22's because the existing machinery is already maxed out. Sure, they're running at full capacity.....which is completely inadequate capacity for high demand.

Full production capacity is geared toward average demand, not high demand. Full production capacity is predicated on the fact that it isn't all that needed right away and adequate existing stocks take up the average demand, with only the relative trickle representing full production capacity needed to maintain existing supplies at the dealers.

Noticed any 22's for three years? What would you say that says about "full production capacity" versus demand? Given it's been three plus years, what does that say about the full production ability to keep up?

All other ammo types have been restocked by now and have been for some time. Pistol. Centerfire rifle. Shotgun. Not .22's. Makes my comments seem rather on point.

The sad fact is it takes only a small spike in demand to crash the production capacity, and this is a big spike in demand over a long period of time.

If you don't mind, I don't feel the need to retract anything I stated.

ill just restate what i said, the machinery is dedicated, it cant be changed over to run other things, and they run it all 24/7. i have a pretty good grasp on how it all works, as i did work in a rimfire plant for a few yeras. my knowldege is not 2nd hand.

[10-x]

Traveled from Va. through N.C.,S.C.& GA.to FL. No .22 @ any of the Wally worlds near interstate, the one store off I-77 just below Charlotte had plenty but at gun show scalper prices. Feel like many that posted above, load up some 38 Spl. and sit on the .22 stashed. Remember buying bricks back in the early 60s for less than $5, shoot for several weekends. Obongo has been and is the best salesman for firearms and ammo. Election will tell.

[35remington]

Lefty, that is fine. Still doesn't change the fact that they cannot and do not change their ability to make more when demand spikes.

[Ballistics in Scotland]

QUOTE=dtknowles;3494564]Did you ever shoot any of the 1400 FPS Eley stuff across a chronograph? I have shot some of the Aguila Interceptor 40 gr. RN thru my Anchuez Exemplar with a 10 inch barrel and it chrono'd from 1329 to 1471 with the average around 1410 fps. Isn't Aguila stuff licenced by Eley?

Tim[/QUOTE]

I'm indebted to you for that information, and Aguila Interceptor ammunition is indeed supposed to be available in the UK, although a couple of dealers list it as temporarily sold out. Chronographs were less common when I did most of my rimfire shooting, Aguila using "Eley prime technology" could mean just about anything it suited both parties to say. Chronographs were uncommon when I last took much technical interest in .22 rimfires, but I suppose if Aguila do it, Eley did it. Being close to its maximum in ten inches doesn't surprise me in a .33 rimfire.

It seems a great pity if we have to get it from Mexico now. I have no doubt that Eley are still at least as good as the competition in target rimfire ammunition, but like many another good company of similar description, they seem to have let their marketing and website design people get away from them. Eley Force is described as being for semi-automatic firearms, and

"ELEY force is instantly recognisable with its unique black oxidised case finish which increases friction between the case and projectile. This regulates and controls the force required to release the bullet, stabilising the projectile and ireasing ballistic consistency and accuracy. ELEY force is a .22LR round that deliveries both strong kickback and accuracy."

I always thought a kickback was a bribe. The Interceptor bullet is solid only, and the only cartridges they list as being for hunting are Sport (solid only, and catalogued in the US as a target round) and subsonic solid or hollow. `

The Aguila Interceptor sounds very superior to the hypervelocity rounds. Here are my pictures of the old Eley HV bullets which hit rocks under water, solids turned sideways up to about 16in., and stayed sideways, not tumbling. Hollow points were still stable but with most of their energy gone at 9in., but we wouldn't be using them on more than 9in. of varmint. The very hollow CCI Stinger 29gr. bullet flew entirely pieces in without touching rock in a much shorter distance, and 7gr, round buttons from the base were the largest pieces I found.

157449157448

[lefty o]

Lefty, that is fine. Still doesn't change the fact that they cannot and do not change their ability to make more when demand spikes.

are you just trying to start an argument? never said they did.

[35remington]

Then I'm not sure of the relevance of your original commentary to what I set forth.

If you say it's irrelevant to my point I'll agree.

[EDG]

We don't really know what their profit margins are. They would drop rim fire production all together if they did not make any money.
They probably don't make any money on a lot of centerfires too. But manufacturers often feel compelled to offer a product just to be seen as offering a full line to dealers and distributors. When you start listening to anyone in marketing you might as well start believing politicians too. Marketeers are known liars and exaggerators.
The manufacturers know what the normal steady demand was in the past but they don't know what it is now. Being capitalists they have to think about the time it will take to pay off a new investment in capital equipment and floor space. They have been unwilling to invest to support the hoarding cycles. If they did the hoarding cycles might stop and they would go back to normal production making LESS MONEY than they are making now. I suspect some of the lack of investment is the nature of rimfire making machinery and facilities. This equipment is going to be unlike centerfire equipment. A centerfire loading machine can be set up for many different rounds. The rimfire lines are probably fixed and are not convertible to anything else. They either run or they don't run.

At some point in time additional domestic actors may get into the market and/or the US manufacturers will commit economic suicide by allowing more imported ammo makers like PPU get established in the market.






lefty, do you suppose the manufacturers expand their ability to make ammo at a greatly or even significantly increased rate when supplies are short?

No, they do not. Not really. The bigger problem is they don't have the ability to greatly or even significantly increase production capacity.

Let me quote myself:

"......they don't make any money if they devote too much production to making .22's."

That statement is still accurate despite your commentary. No extra machinery is purchased and brought online to make lots more ammo that generates low profits and has little ability to repay the cost of new machinery. Raw material is not greatly diverted to make more .22's because the existing machinery is already maxed out. Sure, they're running at full capacity.....which is completely inadequate capacity for high demand.

Full production capacity is geared toward average demand, not high demand. Full production capacity is predicated on the fact that it isn't all that needed right away and adequate existing stocks take up the average demand, with only the relative trickle representing full production capacity needed to maintain existing supplies at the dealers.

Noticed any 22's for three years? What would you say that says about "full production capacity" versus demand? Given it's been three plus years, what does that say about the full production ability to keep up?

All other ammo types have been restocked by now and have been for some time. Pistol. Centerfire rifle. Shotgun. Not .22's. Makes my comments seem rather on point.

The sad fact is it takes only a small spike in demand to crash the production capacity, and this is a big spike in demand over a long period of time.

If you don't mind, I don't feel the need to retract anything I stated.

[Tackleberry41]

I do not see an end to rimfire production any time soon, its just to popular, everybody who owns a gun has a 22 of some kind. The place near me has had a choice for quite a while. Was in there yesterday they had a case of CCI waiting to be put out. Now 22 mag, forget it, havent seen any there in months. I bought a box when they had some even tho I dont have one, just so I had some.

17HMR has always been in stock, but I guess very few are semi autos that burn thru the ammo like 22lr. And those who own 17s again dont tend to burn thru it, whole different animal than plinking with a 22.

[Mauser48]

I'm not worried about them not making anymore that will never happen. I just hope people stop hoarding it and selling it at inflated prices.

[tazman]

I went to my shooting range/gun shop this morning for a practice session. They had a bunch of 22lr on the shelf. I suspect it will be there for a while.
Federal auto match 325 round boxes for $47
Remington Thunderbolt bricks $53
Aguila 50 found boxes $6
CCI mini mag standard velocity 100 pack $15

[dragon813gt]

Actually saw some on the shelf at the local WalMart. Winchester 555 for $28 equals pass. Federal Automatch 325 for $24 equals pass. Nice to see it on the shelf but I can't run either one of them in my pistols.

[Four-Sixty]

I looked at Academy here in Georgia tonight. All they had in the way of 22 were the CCI shot shells. They did have piles on hand before Christmas though.

I would go to the Academy store evry payday in 2010-2011 to set a little 22 aside. Half the time they were sold out then.

If I won the PowerBall yesterday, I would have built a plant dedicated to 22.

[Forrest r]

[QUOTE=Ballistics in Scotland Aguila using "Eley prime technology" could mean just about anything it suited both parties to say.[/QUOTE]

http://i162.photobucket.com/albums/t242/forrestr-photo/EleyPrimer2_zps501ab46b.jpg (http://s162.photobucket.com/user/forrestr-photo/media/EleyPrimer2_zps501ab46b.jpg.html)

A cutaway of 2 different cases to actually see what aguila is calling "ELEY" primed, it's a real eye opener.

[ProfGAB101]

One big factor is who is being allowed import permits and who is blocked.

I for one if I had the capitol would love to buy the forming equipment that Baikal uses to make "Jr. Steel" 22LR - Which when stored properly worked great. Back when we could buy Russian 22 I seem to recall getting Jr. Brass for like $6.99 per 500 brick and Jr. Steel for like $5.89 per brick. I will qualify that to get those prices you were buying multiple 6000rnd crates and yes I did buy a few palette loads.

I still have a sealed brick of each Jr. Steel and Jr. Brass. At the time it was not a great seller since with its sticky wax lube they used it was less than ideal for any semi-auto action. But with the great return to bolt action 22's such as the Savage FVSR for suppressor use this would be great.

Likewise with the new methods of powder coating and other options there is no reason that clean high velocity loads for semi-auto could not be perfected.

Also cost of materials - its all in the mass - and there is no lighter cartridge than a 22RF. Packaging - look at the loose pack 333 or so sized "bulk" pack box, how can you get any cheaper.

As to the ideal of focusing production on rimfire vrs centerfire - that is a smoke and mirrors B$ question. A rimfire production line is a dedicated line it only makes rimfire ammo. So if you have that line you run it 24/7 to make money because if you are not running it full time then it is costing you money in heated cubic foot floor space, insurance costs, investment vrs return and plenty other ways an accountant would scold you for.

When the price of your rimfire nears the price of your centerfire offerings then by shear mass we know there is a good profit being had some where between production and the final retail sale.

As a machinist and former production floor supervisor I understand the limits of what can be made with existing equipment. I know that to add another rimfire line would take about 4 years from decision to full production output and a huge investment. As stated elsewhere in this thread the growth of the 22LR firearms market has exploded in recent years so that without either opening up additional import options or adding more US factory capacity we will never catch up with demand. While it might not appear that RF ammo has profit potential for the ammo companies, it is putting more profit in some peoples pocket than say a box of 9x19. It would be an investment with virtual guarantee of pay back within target figures.

The market for 22RF may cool off some, but demand will stay high, and if it puts pressure on overpriced imports that's just great.