The Magnitude of the .22 ammo shortage

[MtGun44]

My job is engineering, which uses mathematics to try to get
understanding of problems and seek prediction and solutions.
This whole .22 ammo thing has been getting to be pretty weird
and I wanted to try to use a bit of math to try to wrap my head
around the size of the problem, at least approximately.

I put a few numbers down to try to get a grip on the scope of our problem, at least the .22 part of it.

Looks like we are pretty seriously screwed for quite a while.

Two online sources (no way to verify) indicate max TOTAL US production capacity at 1.5 billion rounds
per year of .22 ammo. Another sources says 2.5 billion rounds per year.

So, if it is 1.5 billion (1,500,000,000) ROUNDS per year, that is 4.1 million rounds per day.
If it is 2.5 billion (2,500,000,000) rounds per year, that is 6.8 million rounds per day. These
are two reported values for TOTAL US production of .22 ammo.

In ten box BRICKS of 500 rds, this works out to between about 8,200 to 13,700 bricks per
day.

OK, here is where it gets totally crazy. I have heard that there are about 170 million gun owners
in the country. Assuming this is somewhere near true, what if 1% of them decided that they
needed to put 5 bricks of .22 ammo away "for a rainy day" OVER A YEAR'S TIME. This
works out to 1.7 million times 5 bricks or 8.5 million bricks of ADDITIONAL DEMAND, above
the normal useage rate of ammo, over the next year.

8.5 million bricks works out to 23,288 BRICKS per day - JUST IN ADDITIONAL DEMAND,
on top of the normal demand for shooting.

If total production is between 8,200 bricks and 13,700 bricks per day, then the ADDITIONAL
demand caused by 1 gun owner out of 100 gun owners wanting to buy 5 bricks during
the next year will be between 2.8 and 1.7 times the TOTAL capacity of the system.

This is pretty grim because I think that the shortage is CAUSING more people to decide that
they want to stockpile "a few bricks" more than what they normally use. I have to assume
that the normal production levels are approximately matched to the normal consumption levels.
There haven't been huge warehouses of .22 ammo piling up in normal years, as far as I know,
so it makes sense that production capacity is about the same as normal use.

So normal consumption approximately equals normal production and we need an additional
1.7 to 2.8 times normal production if 1 gun owner out of 100 decides to stockpile 5 bricks
OVER THE NEXT YEAR. If it is 5 % that choose to add 5 bricks to inventory over the
next year, the ADDITIONAL production requirement jumps to 8.5 to 14.2 times current
production.

HOLY COW!! If these numbers are ANYWHERE NEAR realistic we are in for a LONG
shortage. Bringing a new line up is reported to take 18 months from the time the go
choice is made.

The longer it runs, the worse it will be, because the more people are inconvenienced and
scared by a long shortage, the more they will react by wanting to store some ammo
away to avoid running out in the future. As Pogo said, "We have met the enemy,
and he is us."

PLEASE correct my math if I have gone off the rails somewhere. I hope I have.

Bill

[btroj]

Sums it up pretty well.

[contender1]

The only thing wrong I see with your numbers is the number of gun owners. According to the NRA, there are between 80 million & 90 million gun owners in this country. Not 170 million. So, use that figure to calculate the shortage. But, you still get a pretty big backlog of ammo delivery. The absolute best way to STOP this insanity is for people to NOT buy any ammo from ANY source that is above normal costs.
Just look at wally world. When they have ammo, the cost hasn't risen. Talk to the manufacturers,, and they say the manufacturing costs have not risen a lot.
It's the gougers,,, pure & simple preying upon the fears of any ban etc.
The bans as proposed by our wonderful politicians caused MANY folks who are CASUAL gun owners to decide to get off the fence & invest in a few things.
Remember,, with 80-90 million gun owners,, yet only 4-5 million NRA members,, do the math. The 5 million are the most active & informed. Double that number (taking into account the non NRA members who are active,) & you have 10 million active gun owners, out of the say 90 million who fight all the time against gun laws.
By the politicians wanting to restrict our rights, it has caused a lot of folks to want something, that they should be able to have, yet are being told is bad for them. (Sounds like Prohibitation from the 20's).
Maybe this is the kind of sleeping bear giant we need at the polls during the next election?
So, if we convince our friends & neighbors who are casual gun owners, (the non active bunch) to NOT buy any ammo from the gougers, it will cause the gougers to stop raping folks on the price of ammo.
Don't get me wrong,, I'm all for capitalism, but there's making a fair profit, & there is raping a customer.
Besides,, it's a federal law that you are SUPPOSED to have a FFL to sell ammo commercially!

[historicfirearms]

Besides,, it's a federal law that you are SUPPOSED to have a FFL to sell ammo commercially!

not true

[Sasquatch-1]

I was in the local Walmart yesterday (5-10-13) talking with the sales lady at the sporting goods counter. She told me that she can't get any of the .22 when it comes in and she is working. Also told me that there is a group that gets informed when the ammo arrives, comes in and buys most all they can and resells at flea markets. I am sure the person doing the informing must be getting a slice of the pie. Maybe it's time for BATF to start checking flea markets.

[Jim]

[QUOTE=contender1;2210887.....Besides,, it's a federal law that you are SUPPOSED to have a FFL to sell ammo commercially![/QUOTE]

I'm curious, where'd you get that information? That's new to me.

I ask because there are three businesses that I know of around here that carry ammunition and I know for a fact they don't have FFLs. Seems to me that if a business were required to have an FFL to sell ammo, ATF would have caught up with these people by now.

If ATF required a business to have an FFL to sell ammo, wouldn't the business be required to show proof of an FFL to buy it wholesale with intent to resell? If that were the case, how are these businesses that I speak of getting this ammo?

Something's not matchin' up here.

[btroj]

Time for the ATF to start checking on flea markets? Really?

Stop buying ammo at other than "normal" prices?

I love all these "solutions" to a panic. What we need to do Isit back, relax, and wait.

More government intervention is NOT the answer. How many little mom and pop places sell ammo at gun shows? I know I have purchased much Aguila 22 ammo from one in the Omaha area in the past.

If you don't have ammo and want to shoot then you can pay the price or not shoot. Pretty simple really.

[MtGun44]

OK, I stand corrected on the number of gun owners, but that doesn't change the
basic problem much.

If the system is set up to pretty much have capacity equal to normal amount that
is shot each year and even a small percentage of gun owners decide to "stock up",
this can suck the system dry and cause shortages. Once the shortages start,
there are people that can't get ammo for a while and they decide to "put a few
bricks aside" the next chance they get. This makes it a good bit worse.

I am one of the people that wants to have some extra in stock, so I know the
psychology.

This all feeds and extends the shortage. I think that this .22 shortage is going
to last a while.

I hope I'm wrong.

Bill

[WILCO]

As Pogo said, "We have met the enemy,
and he is us."

I disagree with that statement Bill. It ignores the fact that there are many new shooters to the firearms world. Many of these folks have purchased rimfire rifles and pistols, as it's the most common cartridge for beginners and, for a time, was the most economical choice for anyone starting out. We don't have a supply issue, it's a demand situation. Membership to my shooting club is at an all time high. Last week, I took a family of five out to the range. Out of the five, one is a reloader, one is a new gun owner after 30 years of not owning any and the other three are new shooters looking for firearms and ammo! Many folks are waking up to the economical and political reality
that are nation is facing. It's not a simple "Billy Bob Horton is hoarding ammo at Walmart" scenario. Demand for firearms and ammuntion is up and it isn't coming down anytime soon. Nice work on the math by the way.

[Blammer]

I think the overseas production of 22LR will help out.

[oldtrucks]

It's been mentioned in a similar thread that there are non gun owners buying ammo just to buy. Some of them want to be gun owners and fear they won't be able to get ammo, others are buying and reselling for the profit. With those kind of variables in play it's difficult to define the problem

[Vly]

The one positive moderating trend is usage appears to be decreasing. I know the 22RF shooting activity at my range has slacked off. When a brick is selling for $75, the mag dumps from the 10/22 shooters with the 25 and 50 rd magazines becomes much less.

[Love Life]

So when do we get free stuff? We were all promised free stuff...

On a serious note. Supply has not kept pace with demand on both the manufacturing side of the house and the reselling side of the house. People are still willing to pay to play. It's just the way things are.

Yes the "evil gouger guys" may be helping the problem, but the "Wahhhhhh!!!!! I can't buy my ammo, or buy ammo to resell myself is being caused by the evil gouger guys!!! WAHHHHHHHH" don't help either.

[Thumbcocker]

I am surprised that there is not more foreign .22 rimfire coming in. Any country that has any firearms in private hands probably manufactures .22's.

[dragon813gt]

I am surprised that there is not more foreign .22 rimfire coming in. Any country that has any firearms in private hands probably manufactures .22's.

This is where conspiracy theories enter the debate. Why aren't the imports here in large numbers? 22 was starting to dry up last summer. The Newtown tragedy just made things worse. So is the government preventing the imported ammo from coming in? I've dealt w/ customs on plenty of occasions. They are like any other government agency and run at their own sluggish pace. I've heard all type of rumors as to where all the imported ammo is. If someone could manage to get a container of 22lr shipped over they would be able to retire off the profits.

[35isit]

On average I shoot maybe 3 bricks of "plinking .22s" a year. But I shoot 2 bricks plus of foriegn higher grade target ammo per year. I can't find it by the brick anywhere. I can buy it 2 boxes at a time occasionally. If the foreign manufacturers were going to ease the situation, wouldn't we be seeing that ammo on the shelves?

On a side note. I was asked by a fellow club member if I had any ammo to sell. He didn't need it to shoot. Said it sold like hot cakes on the internet and he had sold all he had and was looking for more. He didn't care what kind.

[10 ga]

I think the overseas production of 22LR will help out.

I have shot plenty of imported stuff:
Wolf = Russian
Aguila = Mexican
Armscor = Phillipine
Lapua = Europe
Eley = Europe
(I hope I haven't placed them wrong)

And I'm sure that there are others I don't recognize.
And if the china businessmen smell $50 bricks then they'll be in the business too.

The imports won't save us but can mitigate the harshness of the short supply.

And I'm not paying gouged RF prices, just shooting the ML with cast PRB and reloading more. Slower rate of fire but plenty of fun to be had.

Best, 10

[snaketail]

Bass Pro, Phoenix - yesterday (5/10) - Remington Thunderbolt on the shelves. Maybe the worm his turning.

[MtGun44]

When I quoted Pogo (young guys will have NO idea!) I mean ALL shooters, new and
old are "us". The shortage causes a desired to "put a bit away" - which is perfectly
logical, but it will make the shortage run longer. Not pointing fingers, but it is a
bit irritating that the "entrepreneurs" have injected themselves as another layer
in the system which raises prices.

All that said, I am not yet worried, I have enough .22 ammo to last for a while and
amazngly enough, I have an ammo factory in my basement!

Bill

[willie_pete]

This is just a speculative bubble and will end like they have all ended. The first one is generally considered to have happened in 1637. The "Tulip Bubble" is an interesting read.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

The last biggest one was probably the "Dot Com" bubble ot the current housing bubble. They all end the same way with prices returning to pre-mania levels. Just wait them out.

WP

[starmac]

I can and will ride out several years of this shortage. I loaned a pickup to a friend that comes up and works summers. The other day he brought in one of the little feceral short bricks in out of the console and said here you will probably be looking for this. lol
I had to laugh and told him to look in the rest of the vehicles, as I keep one in every vehicle I own. lol
The one I personally drive the most also has 30/30, 44,and 338 ammo in the console too, some things you just don't leave home without. lol

[TXGunNut]

Your math is close enough for the purpose but a better number would be the number of active shooters, Bill. A fair percentage of gun owners seldom actually shoot. I wouldn't be surprised if the number of actual shooters was closer to 50 million and that is just a guess. As has been pointed out some folks buying ammo are merely commodities traders so even the number of active shooters isn't very helpful. Point you make is valid, hoarding and gouging will plague this market as long as it's profitable. The only solution is to refuse to pay inflated prices.
This reminds me of the gasoline "shortage" of the 70's. It was caused by folks running around with tanks full instead of filling up when it ran low.

[SlippShodd]

I am NOT an engineer -- I've never even ridden on a train, much less driven one -- but I really enjoy number-bashing; as an amateur, I have to leave the "crunching" to the better-educated/more experienced. And to further foster my reputation as class clown, I am compelled to interject some of my observations.
First off, Bill, I applaud your efforts to try to wrap your brain around this chaos and try to make a palatable presentation of the numbers. It's a tough row to hoe because the stats themselves are so... all over the place. I've read several of the surveys done on simple gun ownership questions and nobody -- NObody -- can pin down how many people in the USA own firearms. The reasons are various: for one, it's a fluid number. For two, the polls used have a built-in error, plus not everyone is honest in responding. Asking "known/probable" gun owners if they own a gun results in anywhere from a typical 6 to 11% known/probable error (with some polls running in to the 30% range) because we don't necessarily like telling just anybody that asks that we do indeed own guns. Kind of like a stranger asking if I have $1000 cash on me. So that answer has to just be kind of accepted based on trusted statistics, and who trusts statistics?
I was also going to question Bill's Pogo quote, but only because I remembered reading it differently when I was a kid. I looked it up. I'll accept it as is. :)
Some others and I were just this week bemoaning the .22LR ammo shortage and the effect it was having on our beloved shooting sports. In thinking it over, I also have to accept that some of "we is them." I don't particularly "need" to buy any more .22 ammo, I have a fair supply, but the sheer brutality of not knowing when more will come commonly available is disturbing. I have my own shooting jones to feed, as well as that of my newly-introduced-to-shooting niece, nephew and brother-in-law (stats fluidity in action) and their couple of new guns in the mix. At the family ranch, summer brings on an increased use of .22 ammo in daily pest control, my uncle there is having difficulties finding ammo at the local, small-town shops (read: low buying power), so I'll augment him from my supply until this too shall pass. These things all make me think, "Why didn't I buy more than my already 3 bricks above normal rate when I had the chance?" Then I have to go look in the ammo locker and just tell myself, "Chill, dude, you're okay." I've already contributed to the chaos this year. No need to start on the Panic Of 2015. Here in my home state of Idaho, CCI (ATK) is churning out 4,000,000 rounds of .22 ammo per day. Yes, Bill, that's 8,000 of the daily bricks, and we're not seeing hardly any of them here. That really bums me out. Sportsmans Warehouse had their Friday Ammo Breadline yesterday. It was about half the size of last week's according to a friend of mine that works there. I did not get in the line, because in a moment of clarity I couldn't bring myself to waste an hour to get (or not) my 1 brick of .22s. The line was 45 yards long at store opening time and they had received 180 boxes of .22 ammo in their shipment. I did buy some primers and powder which required no waiting in line whatsoever.
And I'm going to disagree with whoever it was that said the mag-dumps of .22 are less common, at least from the local standpoint. Our 28,000+ group here tends to blur the lines with commonality, and I sometimes overlook how different we are from region to region across this country, so, no disrespect intended. Every couple weeks I spend part of a day just roaming our desert shooting areas, picking up brass and trash and lead and letting my dogs run amok. One of the things most brassrats around here overlook are the piles of .22 brass, I suppose because they aren't reloadable. A big pile of easy to grab .22 brass still sells for a buck and a half a pound to the scrapyard, so I can be attracted to the big shiny piles. Wherever there's a big pile of brass, there's bound to be a few live rounds, and I pick all of those up; bear with me on this.
In 2011, I kept track of all the reloadable brass and live ammo I found in this manner. For an entire year. I had something in mind to do with the statistics, but that's beside the point now. And to keep this thread rimfire related, I'll stick to those numbers. That year I picked up 848 rounds of live .22LR, averaging about 40 rounds per trip. This was in 21 trips to the same shooting spots covered in the prior 2 or 3 weeks. That year, I tore down almost 100% of those live rounds and salvaged the lead, scrapped the brass, tossed the powder into my 4th of July can. Then I got the bright idea of testing the found ammo for function; unlike centerfire ammo, I'm not afraid of found rimfire damaging my guns or myself. That testing led me to sorting the found stuff more carefully and only scrapping the bent/damaged rounds, heavily struck rims (90% failures, light primer strikes have only about a 1 or 2% fail rate), and chocolaty stained brass/obviously wet (about an 80% failure rate). Consequently, I currently have about 800 rounds of free plinking ammo onhand, and we've been shooting it up all spring, as well as resupplying with every trip to the range. One recent trip out netted 121 rounds of live .22, about 50 of which were keepers. So, I thank the goofballs that drop live ammo on the ground and won't bend over to pick it up. If anything, there seems to be an increase in "dumpers." Probably/possibly newbs (stats fluids) that just don't understand yet the ramifications of their actions.
Problem? What problem? :)

mike

[uscra112]

I've run the same rough estimate in my head, Bill, and I think you have it nailed. Capacity was in equilibrium a year or so ago, but the demand from new shooters knocked the can over, and that set off a tidal wave of hoarding. The hoarding will wane slowly, but the new shooter demand will still be there, so until mfg. capacity gets built up, the drought will continue.

BTW I read that Remington announced a $32 million expansion of ammo capacity a day or two ago.

[Phoenix]

A license is not required for dealers in ammunition only.

That is strait from the atf website.

[runfiverun]

you'd think Remington would have just spent 32 bucks on quality control of their thunder duds.

[quilbilly]

The cost to shoot my .222 with cast is now half what it costs to shoot a 22 LR. Amazing!

[phaessler]

Glad I am not alone on speculation, I have written to most of the gun rags and posed the question " why the shortages? What do the manufacturers have to say? " , after 3 months they still would rather focus on menial articles. Let them publish and article with information from a munufacturer, it will either totally upset the apple cart, or slow down the hoarding.....

Pete

[imsoooted]

This is just a speculative bubble and will end like they have all ended. The first one is generally considered to have happened in 1637. The "Tulip Bubble" is an interesting read.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania


The last biggest one was probably the "Dot Com" bubble ot the current housing bubble. They all end the same way with prices returning to pre-mania levels. Just wait them out.

WP


+1....look at the prices of ar's and glock 17's..... prices back to normal now and available.....I do admit that I was caught with low stock of 22lr...lesson learned

[MtGun44]

uscra112 has an excellent point, also made by a friend of mine last night. They are making and
selling literally millions of new guns each year and these folks take the guns out and SHOOT THEM! How
weird! (kidding). In the past a whole lot of self defense guns were purchased with one box of
ammo and either never shot or a few rounds shot and then put in the sock drawer until the widow
sold it 40 years later. Nowdays, people actually carry guns, get training, go shooting and have fun
with them. This consumes ammo. Also, people are concerned about attacks on gun ownership,
rising ammo costs, future ammo shortages and having a substantial quantity of ammo stored
seems to make sense.

Many shooters out there keep 10,000 to 20,000 rounds on the shelf as a routine thing. If there
are 50 million active shooters and 1/2 of 1% have 10,000 rounds in storage, this is 2.5 billion
rounds. If 5% have 2,000 rounds stored, this is an additional 5 billion rounds. It would be easy
to believe that there are 10-15 billion rounds stored in private homes in the US. If anything makes
the group want to add to their stash, then billions more get pulled out of the system and are
unavailable for others to buy and shoot. Complex problem.

I know of a family, new to shooting that bought a couple of .380s for self defense, one for each
adult. They and their two teens regularly burn up 250 rounds in a shooting session. Probably
are a lot of new shooters like this, and many bought a .22.

It seems that the actual consumption of .22 ammo has been steadily increasing as there
are more gun sales. The recent large increase in centerfire ammo costs has been selling a
whole lot of AR .22 conversions, dedicated rimfire uppers and .22 conversions for various
centerfire handguns (1911 conversion uppers are getting more common) all of this puts
more pressure on .22LR.

My bet is that there will have to be a few all new .22 ammo production lines opened up
before this is really solved.

Bill

[Catshooter]

Well, all the really undeterminable answers aside, one thing I agree with is that it ain't gonna end soon. None of the shortages I've seen ended soon and this is by far the worst. I don't think it's going to change much if any this year for sure. Maybe next, maybe.


Cat

[dakotashooter2]

According to my internet search there are 131,806 licensed firearms and ammunition dealers in the US. Figuring only 10% (which is probably low) or 13,180 as the largest ammunition dealers, your calculations of 8200-13,700 mean that is only 1 brick or less per day for just the major dealers. Not too hard to see why they can't get caught up.

At some point the guys stockpiling will have enough and slow down their buying. States/cities with gun registration/licensing probably don't have as big an issue with non gun owners purchasing the ammo supply. Business with "call" lists could cut back on this by taking names off the list as purchases are made. I think once things stabilize many shooters will stock up more than they ever have and some of use may end up with more ammo than our local national guard armory............... I can see the headlines now...1.5 MILLION ROUNDS OF AMMO FOUND AT HOME OF HEART ATTACK VICTUM............

Prior to this situation in my small town, with 3 stores that sell ammo I doubt that combined they were selling a brick per month and probably had a total of 5-6 bricks between them. Needless to say their miniscule supply didn't last long when the panic started. I am guilty of buying 2 bricks myself but I had already previously made the decision, after a long hiatus, to start shooting .22s again. I would also note that the last brick in town sat on the store shelf for 1 1/2 months before I finally broke down and bought it without guilt.

[MtGun44]

I like the dealer numbers added into this. Good point that even if only 10% of the
FFL dealers stock ammo there is still probably less than one brick per day available
to them.

Bill

[Matt_G]

Probably are a lot of new shooters like this, and many bought a .22.

Absolutely.
I personally know two women who recently became gun owners for the first time.
They both bought 22RF semi-auto pistols.

[dragon813gt]

It seems as though some people think a brick is a lot. When the weather warms I routinely shoot a brick a week. I know I'm on the high end. And thankfully I'm stocked and not currently buying. But when I do start looking it will be for cases of bricks. It will eventually settle down. I'm just patiently waiting.

And in regards to the last speculative bubble. It was the housing market. The dot com bubble cost people money but it was really only limited to investors. Yes some retirement accounts were hit but that's why you don't invest in just one area. The housing crash effected every single home owner and drug the world economy down w/ it. The responsible people that had mortgages they could afford saw their home values fall because the banks were giving loans to everyone.

[41 mag fan]

Thanks Bill for putting a mathematical spin to the shortage. Kind of makes sense, esp to someone like me whose not math savvy.
I will say, I think the shortage is due in major parts to varying factors. First the hoarders, then the gougers, and the new gun owners, and finally those like us who see a brick and only buy 1 or 2 at a time when found. Take that last one alone, and spread it across the U.S. and it'd be astounding.

But the new gun owners would really only affect the gun market. I know of 3 who recently started buying guns, realizing we're at the age of gun control is just around the corner.
Of course 2 are my mother and step father. Step father is buying rifles here and there, my mother has fallen into the conspiracy theories about gov't control from all places...facebook.
My step father is buying here and there and picking up a few boxes of factory ammo at the same time. Last purchase was a browning 243. Picked up 5 boxes of factory ammo at the same time.
My mother....who was around guns from my father, and her father was an FFL dealer, but she didn't own any, till lately. Now she's on a buying binge, and buying up ammo at the same time too. Or will be buying components and letting me reload for her.
The 3rd one is a friend from up north of me, she bought a 9mm Glock. Been shooting it quite regularly.

But if you take people buying across the U.S. who've bought 22lr guns, then bought a few bricks of ammo, it dont take very long at all for the shelves to start to empty, then you got a culmination of everyone else grabbing when it hits the shelves.....till the demand slows, it'll be this way for awhile.
One way it will slow, will be the media going quiet and obama and biden stop and let the gun control issue drop.
But if we have another idiot, like the Newtown idiot, do another mass shooting, it'll be this way for awhile, if not the straw that broke the camels back.

[Iowa Fox]

All you have to do is look at Rugers sales for the last three years of 10/22s and then the little SR22 pistols. Lots of new shooters and they really like to rattle them off at the range. Last year at this time Long Rifle rimfire in this area was getting pretty difficult to find. I commend Remington on their expansion. In the interim before the plant is up and running we need some imports to take the edge off.

[Matt_G]

It is good to hear of Remington's expansion; however, it won't matter much if all that comes out of there once it's up and running is "Thunderduds", as Lamar so accurately called them.

[.45Cole]

MtGun44
I think that your math is probably spot on, BUT your assumptions are debatable (good-natured)

max TOTAL US production capacity at 1.5 billion rounds
per year of .22 ammo. Another sources says 2.5 billion rounds per year.


So, if it is 1.5 billion (1,500,000,000) ROUNDS per year, that is 4.1 million rounds per day. If it is 2.5 billion (2,500,000,000) rounds per year, that is 6.8 million rounds per day. These
are two reported values for TOTAL US production of .22 ammo.
Production probably isn't linear, consumption I'm sure isn't linear WRT time. Probably more produced over summer for larger usage over summer months


... there are about 170 million gun owners in the country. Assuming this is somewhere near true, what if 1% of them decided that they needed to put 5 bricks of .22 ammo away ...
If these two assumptions are correct,
(8.5E9 rounds/yr =17E6 bricks/yr) produced

170E6 gun owners @ 30% of them buying 1 brick/yr (purposely undershot)=56E6 bricks/yr total demand for normal year at only 30% shooting a brick of .22's once a year
That would have had us 39E6 bricks short per year

Assuming steady state (no accumulation of .22 ammo at end of year)
8.5E9/500=17E6 bricks/yr and say 30% of total gun owners shoot a box .22's per year and 10% shoot two boxes per year, then total gun owners are approximately: (17E6-.3x)+[17E6-2(0.1x)]=0, x=68E6 gun owners

Note 1E6 =1,000,000, 17E6=17,000,000, E denotes powers of 10 (decimal place)
I hope this brightens up mothers day .22 shooting, and I did my math correct.

+1 engineering, what field of study, I'm Chem E

[10 ga]

Absolutely.
I personally know two women who recently became gun owners for the first time.
They both bought 22RF semi-auto pistols.

Dittos " " to Matt on that! In my extended family alone there were 4 of the feminine persuasion that took a CC class and all purchased double action LR revolvers, simple as it gets for a newbie, point and pull the trigger! All 4 also did the applications and have permits! Now they like to shoot. There has been no drop in RF consumption in our group, probably an increase. In order to preserve RF ammo for the rookies to use when at the range I do a bit of shooting with the 1911 and 38 or the 17HMR or ML with PRB. Now the girls are wanting to shoot that stuff too. Times they are a changing!

10 ga

[contender1]

Ok, I FULLY apologize for the comment about a FFL license being required to sell ammo. We used to own a country store where we wanted to sell ammo. We were politely informed at that time, (many years ago,) a FFL was required.
I didn't know it had changed.
My apologies.
However,, if you do go into wally world & are buying ammo, a question pops up about the age of the buyer. I'm assuming that it's still a legal requirement that a person be of a certain age to purchase handgun ammo?

Still if a lot of these folks who are buying up the supply at wally world,, and going to a flea mkt to quadruple their money were to be visited by friendly ATF agents,, AND we had a bit of news coverage,, MAYBE,,, just MAYBE we'd see an increase in the supply for the majority of folks.

[MtGun44]

No fed restrictions on ammo sales other than "armor piercing" handgun
ammo.

Somebody said the 170 million gun owners was high. I based it on
"over half of homes have a gun" kind of info.

I think that assuming 30% of gun owners by a brick a year is very much
too high. Many folks fire ZERO rounds per year, and I think the norm has
been (changing?) pretty low for a majority of shooters. But, basically
we have near zero data.

Bill

[freebullet]

I don't understand the threads title. What 22 ammo shortage?

[Malgus]

Ok, I FULLY apologize for the comment about a FFL license being required to sell ammo. We used to own a country store where we wanted to sell ammo. We were politely informed at that time, (many years ago,) a FFL was required.
I didn't know it had changed.
My apologies.
However,, if you do go into wally world & are buying ammo, a question pops up about the age of the buyer. I'm assuming that it's still a legal requirement that a person be of a certain age to purchase handgun ammo?

Still if a lot of these folks who are buying up the supply at wally world,, and going to a flea mkt to quadruple their money were to be visited by friendly ATF agents,, AND we had a bit of news coverage,, MAYBE,,, just MAYBE we'd see an increase in the supply for the majority of folks.

This reminds me of something..

A couple 10 years ago or so, here in Kentucky we were slammed with an ice storm. Bad one. Knocked out power in Lexington and surrounding areas, etc. Folks were caught napping, and it seemed like everyone wanted a generator. Within a few days, you could not buy a generator anywhere in the Commonwealth of Kentucky at any price - everywhere was sold out. Period. And power had not yet been restored.

A couple enterprising young men rented a large cargo truck and drove to Florida. They hit every Home Depot and Lowes store they could find, buying any kind of generator they could. When the truck was full to bursting, they drove back to Lexington, Kentucky. They hung out a sign that said "Generators for sale" and sold every generator they had at obscene prices. They made a small fortune.

Were they "gouging"? Depends on your point of view. Clearly, there was nothing stopping anyone from doing the same thing, or even making the drive to another state to buy a generator. Folks who did nothing but sit there and wait for help were the ones who crabbed about "price gouging". Folks who didn't think ahead and get a generator when the weather was nice were the ones crabbing.

I've been setting aside ammo for the last 10 years. In 10 years, it's gotten to be quite the pile. This is the SHTF stash. Since this ammo shortage has hit, I have ceased all shooting except when it is necessary (pests, etc), and then try to make do with my muzzle stuffers.

Folks can either pay the going rate, or not. Nobody is forcing them. But yet more government intrusion into our lives is NOT the answer. Those people are doing nothing illegal.

[starmac]

Ok, I FULLY apologize for the comment about a FFL license being required to sell ammo. We used to own a country store where we wanted to sell ammo. We were politely informed at that time, (many years ago,) a FFL was required.
I didn't know it had changed.
My apologies.
However,, if you do go into wally world & are buying ammo, a question pops up about the age of the buyer. I'm assuming that it's still a legal requirement that a person be of a certain age to purchase handgun ammo?

Still if a lot of these folks who are buying up the supply at wally world,, and going to a flea mkt to quadruple their money were to be visited by friendly ATF agents,, AND we had a bit of news coverage,, MAYBE,,, just MAYBE we'd see an increase in the supply for the majority of folks.

I do hope we don't go down the road you are hinting at. I'm not sure why the atf agents would be interested anyway.

[dtknowles]

I am NOT an engineer -- So, I thank the goofballs that drop live ammo on the ground and won't bend over to pick it up. If anything, there seems to be an increase in "dumpers." Probably/possibly newbs (stats fluids) that just don't understand yet the ramifications of their actions.
Problem? What problem? :)

mike

Mike

You can thank the goofballs and maybe the "expert" that told then to never put a round in your gun that you dropped on the ground! That's is way easier than educating them with the when, what and how of dealing with dropped ammo. Remember these goofballs don't have any common sense. I have over 700 rounds of .223 that I picked up off the ground in the "buffer zone" (uncontrolled range in Mississippi) a few years ago before the Sheriff shut it down. I don't even own a firearm of that caliber, I guess that is why I still have it and the .40 I picked up. I tore down or shot the rest. I am almost an engineer, I don't have a license but I like your way of thinking.

Tim

[SlippShodd]

You can thank the goofballs and maybe the "expert" that told then to never put a round in your gun that you dropped on the ground! Tim

Yeah, and I think about that whenever I pick the stuff up. I came from a family of Depression Era farmers, and we never wasted anything. My old man taught me to not put dropped ammo in the gun... immediately. Clean it off, look it over, don't introduce anything bad to a good gun, shoot it if it looks good to go. He would literally have kicked my young butt if I'd left good ammo lying on the ground. I also think about the stuff that was obvious misfires... the goofballs drop it or throw it. I put it in with the rest of the stuff I'm taking home, and like you, tear it down and use the useful stuff. Again, my old man would have had a conniption fit if I'd left a "dangerous" thing like that lying on the ground.
I have 4 peanut butter jars full of live ammo I've picked up in the last couple years that is what I haven't torn down yet.

mike

[Malgus]

Yeah, and I think about that whenever I pick the stuff up. I came from a family of Depression Era farmers, and we never wasted anything. My old man taught me to not put dropped ammo in the gun... immediately. Clean it off, look it over, don't introduce anything bad to a good gun, shoot it if it looks good to go. He would literally have kicked my young butt if I'd left good ammo lying on the ground. mike

My father also grew up during the Depression. It seems to be a rule drummed into their heads (and then ours) by their parents: never throw anything away. Everything has multiple uses. Dropped ammo? Same thing. Pick it up, wipe it down, inspect it. If it's clean and good to hook, then use it.

Anecdote time: My wife thinks I'm crazy. When we bought this farm, we had an old chicken coop behind the house. All rotten and shot with termites. I hated the thing and didn't want them eating on the house, so I tore it down. Then I realized the entire thing was put together with hand forged square nails. So, little by little, I've been burning the wood down to ash and reclaiming the nails. Unless you know a blacksmith, NOBODY is making square nails by hand anymore, and they are better than wire cut nails. (I was reading in Woodworker magazine that the old hand forged square nails have about 400% more holding power than wire cut nails. And now I have 3 or 4 big mason jars full of them.).

Even if you don't have a firearm in a certain caliber, pick up the ammo anyway. It will make good trading stock in the future, even if it's only the components.

[pmer]

My Buckmark was having some FTFs but after a cleaning it was back in business. Lately I learned at my LGS you shouldn't dry fire the rimfires too.

[wallenba]

Yep, the shortage is a phenomenon of human creation. To quote the great philosopher Pogo, '' We have met the enemy...and he is us".

[reloader28]

My uncle was at a gun show a couple weeks ago and saw a table covered in .22lr bricks.
$160 and people were buying them.:shock:
I still have 8 or 10 bricks that I paid $9 for.

[dakotashooter2]

You also have to consider the change in the average firearm itself. When I was growing up every kid with a .22 had a single shot. There were a few lever actions around but very few semi autos. Now, semi autos seem to be the prevalent gun. It takes a while to go through a brick of shells with the single shot but not so with the semi auto, thus people tend to buy more than they used to.

I remember when my uncle gave me 2 cents each for gopher tails. At the time I had to make my shots count because .22 shells were 1 cent each............Even then I though I was doing a lot of shooting and never went through a brick of shells all summer.

[jcwit]

Ok, I FULLY apologize for the comment about a FFL license being required to sell ammo. We used to own a country store where we wanted to sell ammo. We were politely informed at that time, (many years ago,) a FFL was required.
I didn't know it had changed.
My apologies.
However,, if you do go into wally world & are buying ammo, a question pops up about the age of the buyer. I'm assuming that it's still a legal requirement that a person be of a certain age to purchase handgun ammo?

Still if a lot of these folks who are buying up the supply at wally world,, and going to a flea mkt to quadruple their money were to be visited by friendly ATF agents,, AND we had a bit of news coverage,, MAYBE,,, just MAYBE we'd see an increase in the supply for the majority of folks.


I do hope we don't go down the road you are hinting at. I'm not sure why the atf agents would be interested anyway.

Folks, Its not the ATF, its the tax agents both Fed. and State. I live fairly close "walking distance" to one of the largest weekly flea markets East of the Mississippi, Shipshewana Trading Place. In order to have a spot in the market one needs a state retail license for starters, and yes the tax people do check. A few years ago 'thats 4 to 5' the state of Indiana had a booth at the market weekly checking dealers, however this has now gone by the wayside. How do I know this, 20 years of experience there as a dealer till retirement..

BTW, they also have unexpected checks periodically for counterfeit, and stolen goods.

[Malgus]

My uncle was at a gun show a couple weeks ago and saw a table covered in .22lr bricks.
$160 and people were buying them.:shock:
I still have 8 or 10 bricks that I paid $9 for.

Prices on GB reflect the same..

But, as a friend of mine said (and he's an investment broker) "It ain't that the price of gold has gone way up. It's that the value of our money has gone way down."

I get the feeling that not only is that true, but it's gonna get worse.

[dtknowles]

Prices on GB reflect the same..

But, as a friend of mine said (and he's an investment broker) "It ain't that the price of gold has gone way up. It's that the value of our money has gone way down."

I get the feeling that not only is that true, but it's gonna get worse.

The dollar is hitting highs against major overseas currencies that it has not seen in decades and the value of gold is down from highs. Our money is doing good. What is down is the value of labor, too many workers and too little good work. With demand for good being soft to flat and every work force on the planet trying to find a market for its products money talks and stuff (things not money) aren't worth what they used too.

Tim

[starmac]

My uncle was at a gun show a couple weeks ago and saw a table covered in .22lr bricks.
$160 and people were buying them.:shock:
I still have 8 or 10 bricks that I paid $9 for.

At our gun show two weeks ago, there were a couple of guys trying to get 50 and one at 60, but I didn't see anyone walking around with a brick they had bought.
There was also a guy with a lot of primers at 40 bucks a thousand (wolf) while he sold some , he also left with a lot of them.

[reloader28]

The dollar is hitting highs against major overseas currencies that it has not seen in decades and the value of gold is down from highs. Our money is doing good. What is down is the value of labor, too many workers and too little good work. With demand for good being soft to flat and every work force on the planet trying to find a market for its products money talks and stuff (things not money) aren't worth what they used too.

Tim

It only appears that way because of all the phoney money the government has been dumping into the system lately to make it look like we're recovering.