Pb price and production

[LiquidLead]

I'm not sure if this means anything, I just thought it was interesting. I live not to far from there, but I am having a rough time find Pb, in any form, around here.

http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA6463516.html?ref=nbra

Mike

[lathesmith]

I live in SW MO, and I share your frustration in finding Pb locally. I posted a link from a metals pricing site a few days ago that showed Pb has soared to $1.50+/lb. These guys seem to think getting this one smelter back on line is going to drop the price considerably. I am not quite so optimistic, guess we'll see in a few months.
Lathesmith

[randyrat]

I;m not so optimistic either. The Hurculaneum plant only produces 2-5% of world lead production from what i read. Australia went GREEN they are still not shipping from their ports...Green political problems.

[cohutt]

Lead was down today by 5%+ from 1.48+/- to 1.40+/-
It was main mover down today so maybe we've seen a top. who knows. down is good, regardless.

edit to add charts

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-lead-60d-Large.gif

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-lead-1y-Large.gif

Let's hope this is the big flame out we've been waiting for and prices come down some again.

[wiljen]

I talked to the smelter today who is doing the +Metal for us and he told me that fuel costs and the Chinese market are NOT what is causing the price climb. He said the hedge funds and futures traders have gone nuts over metals and caused the ridiculous rates we are currently seeing. He says to look at nickel as an example that the Hedge funds took it from 13 to 26. Once the funds got out of it again it returned to 14. He is hoping the same will be true of the metals we use.

[cohutt]

I talked to the smelter today who is doing the +Metal for us and he told me that fuel costs and the Chinese market are NOT what is causing the price climb. He said the hedge funds and futures traders have gone nuts over metals and caused the ridiculous rates we are currently seeing. He says to look at nickel as an example that the Hedge funds took it from 13 to 26. Once the funds got out of it again it returned to 14. He is hoping the same will be true of the metals we use.

21 years in the $ business I've seen a lot of speculative bubbles come and go. The charts look the same most of the time (since the behavior of humans is usually the same when in a crowd).

The lead charts look "toppy" and would be along the lines of what your metal man is saying.

[cohutt]

Look at the 1 year lead chart from above vs the NASDAQ's run into 2000...

LEAD:
http://i107.photobucket.com/albums/m284/cohutt/lead1yraugust07.gif

NASDAQ
http://i107.photobucket.com/albums/m284/cohutt/nasdaq97-2000.gif

Similar shapes, although the NASDAQ chart is roughly 3 years vs 1 for the lead. (Remember that futures move much faster than stocks so bubbles tend to come and go more quickly.)

So, what does sthe NASDAQ chart look like with 2 more years on it?

http://i107.photobucket.com/albums/m284/cohutt/nasdaq97-2002.gif

Looks a LOT different, doesn't it?

Let's hope the lead chart resembles the Nasdaq chart in a few months.
A lock? Nah, nothing is. Possible? Yes.

[lathesmith]

I think the hedge funds are a contributing factor right now as well. I remember a few years ago when hedges started getting into oil the same thing happened, with an eventual price collapse and a lot of people getting burned. However, I believe other factors are also at work in the broader metals market. Using copper as an example--there is a huge boom and sharp price escalation for this metal. What other market has also been booming? Housing, of course. Now that that boom is abating, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the trend line for copper heading down in the near future. It may take awhile though, and who knows, other factors may keep the price propped up. Greed is a funny thing, and you never know what the "herd" is going to do next.
That is why I advise those involved in activities that depend on these metals to get a stash hoarded. This is NOT an attempt to make killer profits, but simply to protect oneself from the ups and downs of a greed-driven market. Even though my metal stash has appreciated somewhat I would not consider selling it just to turn a quick profit. Rather it is more for my peace of mind, and I can know that the activities I love are not dependent on the fortunes of Wall Street or the gyrations of a crazy market.
Lathesmith

[Springfield]

2000 down, 2000 to go. Pounds of lead, that is. That should keep my kids and I shooting for quite a while.

[blysmelter]

If lead is traded at 1.40$ you pay less than the rest of the world, last time I checked on the european market it traded around 4.4$/kg.
Many reasons for the high price on lead, gunpowder, brass and primers, could there be a war going on somewhere?

Luckily may local scrapdealer still sells at around 1$/kg:-)