Spot market on Lead Sky-High

[brshooter]

Just looked up the spot market on lead, $ 1.41 per lb. this morning. Looking at the 5 year history it was 20 cents a lb in 2003. Unreal price.......... Last week bought 80 bags of shot, best price $ 29.75 per bag delivered. Shot was made in Peru.

[Andy_P]

No saying where the price will go, but I doubt it will go back near 20 cents unless cheap effective alternatives are found. They exist for wheelweights, sinkers, ballast and the like, but not yet for lead acid batteries, which are by far the greatest consumer of lead. Burgeoning environmental laws are making it more difficult for us to acquire it (tire shop chains are required to account for safe disposal) as well.

I just smelted another 400 lbs of wheelweights - I'm stockpiling and will continue to as long as I have space. I've also taken to recovering as much spent lead as possible at the source (with permission from my club). I shoot heavy slow bullets that travel no more than a foot into the sand berm. Just brush the sand behind the target smooth before you start shooting, replace targets over the same place on the stand, and when done, start digging where the sand's disturbed. A Minnow trap is a perfect strainer. It's easy to reclaim 50% this way, essentially doubling the life of my stash.

[cohutt]

spikes like this have occurred a few times and things eventually settle down again somewhat. Back to 20 cents? doubt it-

a while back I looked back at the history of lead, did some head scratching and then tried to put it all in some sort of perspective. -
here is very recent history from kitco for reference: http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lead_historical_large.html#1year
other sources sources are usgs historical data and cpi data
read http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lead/
and review: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lead/380798.pdf for some historical perspective
and memorize all data here: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lead/stat/

look at this homemade table- yes, lead is expensive now, but historically not off the charts as it may appear vs a couple years ago. it was just pretty cheap during the early 2000s by historical standards when compared to the price of everything else................relative to everything else......... still $1.40 is tough, like $3.00 gas....

we are in the same area as just after WWII and in the 70s, per the inflation adjusted price in c3. thank you, china.....

c1 = year
c2 = price per lb in that years dollar
c3 = inflation adjusted price in dec 2006 dollars for US delivered lead, usually a few cents/lb more than lme spot prices as shown in kitco's commodity charts
Year $/lb 2006$/lb
1913 $0.044 $0.90
1914 $0.039 $0.79
1915 $0.047 $0.94
1916 $0.069 $1.28
1917 $0.088 $1.39
1918 $0.074 $0.99
1919 $0.058 $0.68
1920 $0.080 $0.81
1921 $0.045 $0.51
1922 $0.057 $0.68
1923 $0.073 $0.86
1924 $0.081 $0.95
1925 $0.090 $1.04
1926 $0.084 $0.96
1927 $0.068 $0.79
1928 $0.063 $0.74
1929 $0.068 $0.80
1930 $0.055 $0.66
1931 $0.042 $0.56
1932 $0.032 $0.47
1933 $0.039 $0.60
1934 $0.039 $0.59
1935 $0.041 $0.60
1936 $0.047 $0.68
1937 $0.060 $0.84
1938 $0.047 $0.67
1939 $0.051 $0.74
1940 $0.052 $0.75
1941 $0.058 $0.80
1942 $0.065 $0.80
1943 $0.065 $0.76
1944 $0.065 $0.74
1945 $0.065 $0.73
1946 $0.081 $0.84
1947 $0.147 $1.33
1948 $0.180 $1.51
1949 $0.154 $1.30
1950 $0.133 $1.11
1951 $0.175 $1.36
1952 $0.165 $1.26
1953 $0.135 $1.02
1954 $0.141 $1.06
1955 $0.151 $1.14
1956 $0.160 $1.19
1957 $0.147 $1.05
1958 $0.121 $0.84
1959 $0.122 $0.85
1960 $0.119 $0.81
1961 $0.109 $0.73
1962 $0.096 $0.64
1963 $0.111 $0.73
1964 $0.136 $0.88
1965 $0.160 $1.02
1966 $0.151 $0.94
1967 $0.140 $0.85
1968 $0.132 $0.76
1969 $0.149 $0.82
1970 $0.157 $0.82
1971 $0.139 $0.69
1972 $0.150 $0.72
1973 $0.163 $0.74
1974 $0.225 $0.92
1975 $0.215 $0.81
1976 $0.231 $0.82
1977 $0.307 $1.02
1978 $0.337 $1.04
1979 $0.526 $1.46
1980 $0.425 $1.04
1981 $0.365 $0.81
1982 $0.255 $0.53
1983 $0.217 $0.44
1984 $0.256 $0.50
1985 $0.191 $0.36
1986 $0.221 $0.41
1987 $0.359 $0.64
1988 $0.371 $0.63
1989 $0.394 $0.64
1990 $0.460 $0.71
1991 $0.335 $0.50
1992 $0.351 $0.50
1993 $0.317 $0.44
1994 $0.372 $0.51
1995 $0.423 $0.56
1996 $0.488 $0.63
1997 $0.465 $0.58
1998 $0.453 $0.56
1999 $0.437 $0.53
2000 $0.436 $0.51
2001 $0.436 $0.50
2002 $0.436 $0.49
2003 $0.438 $0.48
2004 $0.551 $0.59
2005 $0.610 $0.63
2006 $0.863 $0.86

[Goatlips]

Thanks for the fascinating table and the research cohutt.

Goatlips

[duke76]

hit 1.50 a pound, better start locking up the wheelweights with the guns in the safe.

[rodnocker1]

What'd wild about these "soaring metal prices" is a fellow I work with hauls salvage metal on his day's off and he told me that last week the salvage price he received on lead was 3 cents a lb. on scrap/5 cents on batteries ($3.00/$5.00 per 100#). Copper has came down a little to around $2.50 a lb. yet #1 yellow brass is still remaining up (he didn't give a price).

[black44hawk]

It is not just lead. Copper, zinc, etc is also becoming more precious. India and China are buying great quantities of this stuff which drives up the prices. I am sure you have heard on your local news how many idiots try to scrap stolen metal for money. Anyone that tries to get the copper in my catalytic converter will get some lead instead:Fire:

[686]

I DO NOT under stant it. if lead was $1.46 in 1979 and oner $1.00 from 77-80. then why was shot $15.00 a bag in 79. some one is lining there pockest now.

[buck1]

$1.41 A LB! WOW!! WOOHOO!! Felex get the MOS ready, I think a lot of us just became RICH!!!! LOL

[cohutt]

I DO NOT under stant it. if lead was $1.46 in 1979 and oner $1.00 from 77-80. then why was shot $15.00 a bag in 79. some one is lining there pockest now.

in 1979 actual price of lead was 52 cents - the 1.46 is the inflation adjusted price in today's doillars.
Inflation adjusted bBasically means it would take $1.46 today to buy what 52 cents would have bought in 79.
So, the price of everything else we buy has increased almost 3x since 1979.- the 1.46 applies the same increase to the 1979 price of lead, just for comparison.

[John Boy]

... guess it's about time to start digging my 500 grainers out of the berms!

[randyrat]

I missed one TON of WWs for .20/lb a week ago. Thats what the scrap dealer got for them. He has 200 more lbs saved for me. Some of it includes pure lead for .20/lb That makes the deal sweet. The markets will go UP & DOWN for a while but the long run UP,UP....IMO

[randyrat]

Output of Lead down and the biggest price gain in years. Factors involved>> Ivernia inc. Australia is not allowing export do to enviromental concerns.... Doe Run resources corp.(Herculaneum smelter) Missouri cut 50% smelting production due to an Explosion... China's going through a boom in their economy and buying metals like crazy. This is not expected to last forever but the $$experts don't expect any big drop any time soon in metal prices. It would be fun to snoop on some of these people that have enviromental concerns> how many of them have stock in the metal markets..If people only knew they would hang these crooks by the toes.