How long do you think this supply issue is going to last?

[500MAG]

I have been working on my lead hoard so diligently, I failed to properly stock up on primers. The first thing I did, after the Sandy Hook shooting, was to order another AR. Didn't worry about ammo and didn't think about primers. Why the run on primers? Are they requiring background checks on primers in NY? Or is that the fear? How long do you think the stock outages will last? :holysheep

[grimace1]

After Obama's first election it took about eight months for supplies of most components to come back to normal. I'd imagine it will take at least that long this time, if not a year.

[Crusty Deary Ol'Coot]

Well, 500mag.,

Part of the problem is too many people this day and age live hand to mouth.

Meaning they look little towards the future, and instead go buy the can of soup when needed rather then taking it from their pantry and then buying to restock the pantry.

Same with components.

I have for years, made it a habit to be working on a brick of a thousand primers with 1 or more fresh/unopened ones backing it up.

Does that mean I won't buy more if I see them on the dealers shelf, NO WAY!!, but I can shoot and keep shooting for a goodly length of time with my normal stock on hand.

Well, some folk are the hand to mouth type, and they are out in the cold now.

Don't greave for them, it is a problem many smart folk aren't having.

The ones who may be hurting really bad now, through no fault of their own, are the new folk just getting started or buying a new firearm, and those who consume huge amounts of ammo for practice and competition.

However, as to your question on how long it will last ---------------- After the last obamanation, things were barley back to normal, kinda/maybe, in 2 1/2 - 3 years, and the prices never did come back to pre-obamanation levels.

And I live less then an hours drive from Speer & CCI

I really expect it to be much worse this time as D.C. and the left wings folk are running wild and not likely to slow down any time soon.

You can bet the manufactures are pumping out the product as fast as they can, and one thing that just may ????? - time will tell - help, is the fact that it has only been 4 years since the last obamanation and "possibly" ???? some manufactures may have increased their capacity since the first one.

I'm seeing a fair amount of .223 ammo on a local classified web site, and seems some - not all - of the prices aren't even too bad. The AR rifles are out of sight, price wise!

Hang on, this may be a really bumpy ride.

Crusty Deary Ol'Coot

[dragon813gt]

Barring any more shootings or events that will set the media world on fire. Everything should back to normal supply wise by the end of the summer. The manufacturers want to reap profits just as much as we want to buy their products. Now pricing in a few months is still up in the air. prices typically take a long time to come back down from ridiculous highs. I'm still waiting for it to happen with gasoline.

Hoarders don't help the situation. Someone posted on another board about how he has a twenty year supply and he's still buying cases of everything he can find. I get not living hand to mouth which is why I have a stockpile that will keep me shooting for a long time. But when you have decades of supplies you have to start thinking about if you're right in the head.

New shooters are part of the reason that stock is so low. They come in and need to buy everything. Same with new reloaders. I was laughing at some of the conversations I overheard at Cabela's two weeks ago. If you can't figure out which dies you need when they're clearly labeled on the box, and a manual describes them all in detail, you shouldn't attempt to reload.

[Kevin Rohrer]

The shortage is mostly due to the seasonal slowdown by manufacturers. Give them a month to ramp-up production and refill the supply chain, and all will be well.

I will also say that the lack of supply is not universal. I can find anything I want at normal prices in my area.

[LUBEDUDE]

The shortage is mostly due to the seasonal slowdown by manufacturers. Give them a month to ramp-up production and refill the supply chain, and all will be well.



Also keep in mind any smart business will let inventories drops at fiscal year end, so as not to pay taxes on inventory. Many corporations fiscal year end is Sept or Dec.

This means if the manufacturer and wholesaler let inventories drop, it's awful hard for Mr Retailer to get product.

You'll just have to wait for the pipeline to start trickling and eventually fill up again.

[Crusty Deary Ol'Coot]

Hope you folks are correct, but it didn't happen after the last obamanation, and I don't think it will this time.

As said earlier, live less then an hours drive from CCI & Speer and it took a couple years before things began to show any SIGN of possible marked improvement.

The prices never came back below about 19 dollars for a brick of Blazers, and before the obamanation, it was 9 to 10 dollars.

Will be having a man from Speer/CCI speaking to a men's group at my church in about a month, so will be interesting to see what the insiders have to say.

Crusty Deary Ol'Coot

[L1A1Rocker]

How long? Provided that all this gun control **** goes no where and is dropped, about a year.

[I'll Make Mine]

Hey, Crusty, I'd just like to point out that some folks live hand to mouth because they can't spare enough from barely getting by to stock up ahead on anything -- like not being able to afford a Costco membership because it won't save back the full cost on the first trip (and you can't spare anything from the grocery budget if it doesn't). Then again, some of us are just getting back into this after many years away, and don't have any stock of powder or primers because our last purchase of those items was twenty-five years and half a dozen moves ago.

[LUBEDUDE]

Well Crusty, you will notice that I did not put a time frame on my statements. However I do tend to side with you. With this huge panic going on, any supply trickling in will get sucked up so fast like a thirsty man in the desert getting his final drops out of his canteen. This will make stocking up on shelves quite difficult for some time.

[ReloaderFred]

I got home Friday night from the SHOT Show in Las Vegas. To give you an example of the situation, Fiocchi has already sold their entire loaded ammunition production of both their U.S. and Italian ammunition plants for the year, $134,000,000.00 worth. They weren't taking any new orders, period. I was able to place an order for 20,000 Fiocchi shotgun primers from one of the distributors, but no distributor I talked to has any rifle or pistol primers in stock. These aren't dealers, they're the distributors the dealers get their stock from.

I've always tried to keep a two year supply of primers on hand, since without primers, bullets are fishing weights and powder is fertilizer........ I'm hoping my two year supply will be enough, since my supplier has been waiting for his primer order from last August, and the shipment he got in July was from an order he placed the previous January. He normally orders in increments of 500,000 primers, but the shipment he got in July was only half of what he ordered.

My guess, based on this past year, and what I heard at the SHOT Show, is at least two years before it gets back to somewhat "normal", whatever that is.....

Hope this helps.

Fred

[Love Life]

I would say at least a year unless any legislation is squashed.

[Crusty Deary Ol'Coot]

I think that Fred is closer then most on his estimate, and I wonder just how any of us can think it will be any better then what the last obamanation struck 4 years ago.

This situation already makes what happened 4 years ago seem like a party and I just rec'd a notice a bit ago, that the government itself is responsible for much of the shortage, due to the volumn they are buying state side, not even considering military.

Sure hope the info was WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Crusty Deary Ol'Coot

[r1kk1]

Someone did a timeline showing component shortages through the last two or three decades. I was living in Montana during gulf war and Clinton. Every time there is a shortage, my wife and I just don't get to shoot as much as we like. Last Obama election, shotgun primers were very scarce. Prices keep going up and watch gun broker. Record prices will be set again by some seller. I have enough stuff to get me through this shortage. I will not pay price gouging rates.

For those who are starting to reload or getting back, hang on as this will not be your first rodeo as history has shown. I teach more people how to reload during shortages than any other time.

Take care and good luck,

r1kk1

[jmorris]

I'm hoping my two year supply will be enough, since my supplier has been waiting for his primer order from last August, and the shipment he got in July was from an order he placed the previous January. He normally orders in increments of 500,000 primers, but the shipment he got in July was only half of what he ordered.

250,000 primers doesn't sound like much for a supplier, heck I have over 50k for myself. Keep an eye on powder valley and the other larger outlets. They still have LP, LPM, LR and LRM primers in stock despite the panic.

[novalty]

I'd say things should start to settle down somewhere around April 15th. Should see a flood of NIB, or LNIB guns on the market around then.

[EDG]

It is hard to say but as long as Obama is in office we could see this issue come back over and over if there are more atrocities by nut cases. So I would say it is possible that it will last 2 to 4 years.

[wantoutofca]

^ this

Hopefully this term doesn't measure in decades.

[1hole]

How long do you think this supply issue is going to last?

I asked my barber. He said his next door neighbor's brother-in-law's plumber's cousin said it will be over at 4:40 pm, EST, on July 18. If that's wrong I don't have anything else to go on so I won't guess.

[Crusty Deary Ol'Coot]

I was in Lewiston, Ideeeeeho today, (home of CCI & Speer) and stopped in at the Black Sheep to see how their stock was holding up.

Zero/zip on any AR or 10/22 rifles, but good many rifles and handguns available, Lots of bullets "J" type, some primers, powder and .22 Blazers at the best price I have seen for awhile.

Just under 160 Dollars per case (10 - 525count boxes) limit of one case per customer pre day.

The Best price I'd seen since the first obamanation was about 19 dollars for a brick of 500, so $16 for 525 looked pretty good.

One of the counter people said they were smart enough to buy up stock before hand, so here's hoping that others did the same, as that would help cut this obamanation off at the knees.

Crusty Deary Ol'Coot

[oldtoolsniper]

How long do you think this supply issue is going to last?

I asked my barber. He said his next door neighbor's brother-in-law's plumber's cousin said it will be over at 4:40 pm, EST, on July 18. If that's wrong I don't have anything else to go on so I won't guess.

Now that is funny and about as logical as any other Scientific Wild **** Guess.

[cajun shooter]

It's very sad to say but the shooting crowd has itself to blame and no one else. There are many who have a lot of disposable income and they purchase everything by the thousands. That is great for them but not so good for the average Joe who has a family and a regular or low income.
I myself am a retired man on a Disability Income that allows only small purchases of any one item at a time. Even when the shelves are full, I can only manage two boxes of one thousand primers every once in a while. The same goes for bullets. I have plenty of lead and BP and that will not hurt my SASS shooting.
To shoot my Colt M4 is another story. It will not see anything but the inside of my safe for quite a while.
I know that the people who have the money are not trying to hurt me and others like me but the end result is, they do.
On the last primer shortage they had people buying primers by 100,000 and more. I was trying to find a couple of hundred to load my 44WCF for the SASS matches.
About the middle of December I found a company that was selling AR magazines for $18 each, yes that is correct and still is. I ordered two and they were at my door 6 days later. They are steel and made in Isreal. A very fine magazine that is combat proven.
I went back to that forum just this past week which was only three weeks from my first order and they stated it would be a 6 month wait for any order placed on line. That is the problem. It was not my small order of two but those who placed orders for 100. Later David

[ph4570]

Powder Valley shows Tula lg rifle mag, lg pistol mag and 7.62 in stock -- hurry if you need some.

[craig61a]

Based on the last 'panic', I'd say a year or more for things to get back to normal. Of course that depends on what happens in the coming months as far as the anti-gun hysteria...

[angus6]

My guess, based on this past year, and what I heard at the SHOT Show, is at least two years before it gets back to somewhat "normal", whatever that is.....

Gee just in time for the Hilterbeast to throw her hat in the race and send things into a spin again :-( Can make it through Jugears last term and 4 years of the Hilterbeast but then things look bad

[Recluse]

This shortage, and more like it, will continue to last so long as less than ten percent of all gun-owners belong to and support the NRA or other pro-gun associations.

When the NRA hits 50-million members, there will be no more shortages because there will never be another word spoken about ANY type of gun-control.

Until then. . .

:coffee:

[Huntducks]

It will last as long as their is a muslem commie or anti-2A lib in the white house.

[Bonz]

I doubt that supplies return to normal until some time in 2014

[BK7saum]

I got a call yesterday from a wholesaler/distributor that had my order for powder and brass on backorder. They wanted to go ahead and ship what was in stock, and keep the rest as a backorder, However, The popular rifle powders I wanted are backlogged out to 8-12 months. 556 and other popular brass, who knows.

So it looks like it will be a while before supply is back up.

[1Shirt]

Doubt it will ever go back to pre election levels due to the paranoia that exists at the present time. Howeve would expect a leveling off in probaby a year or so.
1Shirt!

[Love Life]

I agree with Recluse. If every gun owner were a member of the NRA we wouldn't have this problem.

Moving along... I believe the supply chain will start to even out in the summer after everybody has maxed out credit cards and blown their tax returns. If no legislation comes then a market glut at the end of the year.

[captaint]

After we see that Congress won't pass any meaningful legislation, things should start to settle down. If WE weren't hoarding - there wouldn't be a problem. The retailers should stop selling huge quantities of anything to hoarders. They (the hoarders) didn't need the huge quantity 3 months ago, and they don't need it now. Soon as WE get back to normal buying practices, things will normalize. That's all I got. Mike

[1hole]

"If every gun owner were a member of the NRA "

The bigger problem is so many NRA members money goes to gun friendly candidates but they VOTE for the one party that is the only threat to our rights!

[I'll Make Mine]

Soon as WE get back to normal buying practices, things will normalize.

I haven't changed my buying habits -- I tried to buy when I had a little money, and there was nothing to buy, either locally or online. I never buy huge quantities or hoard supplies -- I can't afford to. But then I get caught short when I get a little money because other folks think they need ten thousand rounds of .22 to get through the zombie apocalypse, er, I mean the fear of a gun ban.

You know, I'm beginning to think gun rights only apply to those I'd consider rich. Those of us who can barely manage rent, bills, and groceries most months must not have any rights...

[rodsvet]

I don't think as long as we have the present group in Washington that it will ever go back where it was. Even after this group is gone, the cost for the raw material will be high. When you print new money out of thin air and borrow the rest, the dollar becomes worthless (worth less). Everyone think gold has risen in price over the past 40 years. Not true, gold is constant. It is the number of printed unbacked dollars in circulation. The same is true for metal, minerals, oil, you name it. It's this bozo in Washington that has no experience in economics that is fueling the deflation of our money so it takes more to buy less. He is not the only one, the past administrations did it too. They just were a lot slower to print the phoney money.

[451whitworth]

if you want a good chuckle go to Gunbroker and look up the going rate for smokeless powder and small rifle/pistol primers.

[Kydaddy]

Primers have been about all I have been able to find. Was in LGS Saturday and they had SP, LP and LR and normal prices ( couldn't resist buying 2k more LR that I didn't really need for $33 each). No SR though. But did have an oddball bag of #7 (not 7 1/2) though :)

[_4_]

Primers have been a problem for me too. I have found various amounts here and there but only after calling around everyday. Hopefully things turn around soon.

[Jack Stanley]

Rodsvet has a good observation there with the cost of materials and the Ol' Coot from Ideeho touchs on it a bit . You all know when the current administration came to power the cost of everything we use went up . When they printed more money out of thin air that guaranteed the cost of the materials was going to stay high . It was this past year that I saw rimfire ammo get to eighteen dollars a brick here in the land of falling waters . Other items had a price track of there own dependant on what people wanted . The best I saw Winchester primers was thirty bucks a thousand .

Now the first three years of the Obamanation I didn't buy any rimfire to replace what I'd fired . Last year was an interesting year in that I used up over seven thousand rounds of rimfire . So the two cases I bought this past summer probably makes me a hoarder in some circles . But the pantry was so close to being empty , I just had to buy . At the rate it is being used it likely will be gone within two years . Some of the people I've met think that is enough ammo for two lifetimes or to take over a banana republic . Those same good folk normally only use a box and a half of ammo a year so for their purposes they are correct . The thing is I didn't buy the ammo for them and neither does anyone supply materials without cost to the rest of us . I won't consider them as less because they don't practice . It's what they think about others that starts to drive the wedge in , and that is sad .

I really don't mind if a person buys one box of materials or a trainload , I try to plan for what I will use not them .... OK , I do try to keep a little extra for nieces , nephews and children to use . Some might have the idea that history repeats itself and having these materials on hand for a couple generations is a good thing . I can't fault them for that and buyers of that magnitude are what encourages companies to add machinery to produce the product .

When will the market recover ?? After you pay back the sixteen trillion dollars you owe the international bankers ....... maybe .

Jack

[troyboy]

The prices will go up come down and stabalize much higher than before. Happens every time. It is going to be a looooong time before availability is where it was 2 months ago. And when it does... It's going to be a lot more expensive.

[Crusty Deary Ol'Coot]

Well said Jack, and Troyboy is right on.

A week ago yesterday, I was in Lewiston, Idaho and stopped in at the Black Sheep.

They still had CCI Blazer bulk pack .22 by the case (5250 rounds) for just less then $160. Limit of one case per customer per day. Best price I'd seen since obamanation #1.

Not so now, I just heard yesterday that the limit was down to two bulk packs per customer.

I'm guessing there were at least 30 - 40 cases that I could see just over a week ago, or +/- a quarter of million rounds, and most of it sold in a week or less.

I heard that this ammo was available quite awhile back, so anyones guess how many millions went out the door.

This is ammo, by the way, that is produced within 2 miles of the Black Sheep.

Did I buy a case when I saw it? You bet I did and would likely do so again if the opportunity presented itself.

I have a young hunter that I will continue mentoring this Summer, and we WILL use some ammo in the process. Both .22RF and reduced load 30/06.

I am back ordered on the 165gr Hornady Interlock I plan to load for Nate's hunting this coming Fall, but push comes to shove, I'll load from my 180gr stock that was laid in at the first obamanation, or stock that has been sitting on the shelf for years.

Food, components, fuel, clothes, blankets are all like money in the bank. Buy them when you can.

In fact, money in the bank is only a promise to pay you, and that piece of worthless paper is only good as long as someone is willing to except it in trade for what they have.

How long is that going to work out?

Crusty Deary OL'Coot

[1Shirt]

Was at the largest gun dealer in Omaha a few hours ago. From talking with the sales personnel, I am convinced that it has not yet peaked and is readiy to plateau, much less start on a downcline.
1Shirt!

[ReloaderFred]

I still think we're looking at about two years of this, at the minumum. I received this e-mail from Top Gun Supply this morning:

Due to the current state of the firearms industry, we are flooded with phone calls and emails. PLEASE use the phone for important communications only. We do not know when anything is coming in and we do not know the price until it does arrive. Many manufacturers are quoting us at 24 months for orders placed today. We are not taking any special orders at this time. We also do not have any "inside information" about the possible legislation being introduced.

If manufacturers and distributors are quoting delivery times two years out, how can the supply catch up with the demand before then? I don't think it can. At the SHOT Show, one manufacturer of AR rifles told me his current stock was what he had on display, and had orders that would take him the rest of the year to fill, if then.

No, we're in for a long dry spell here..........

Hope this helps.

Fred

[Crusty Deary Ol'Coot]

I think your right on Fred.

It is now worse then with the first obomanation, so why would we expect it to smooth out soon when it took 3 years the first time to see solid signs of returning to pre-obomanation levels of shelf stock and prices barely if any starting to come down.

Crusty Deary Ol'Coot

[hedgehorn]

Based on the last 'panic', I'd say a year or more for things to get back to normal. Of course that depends on what happens in the coming months as far as the anti-gun hysteria...

+1 I think we are in for a dry year

[Degan]

Well, if its real bad on primers, reload the cups yourself. Take a needle nose plier and hold the cup, use a nail or punch to pop the anvil out, then use a similar diameter punch as the cup, hammer and block of wood to flatten the dimple in the cup. Buy "strike anywhere matches" and crush up the powder and fill the cup with match powder. place anvil back in cup and seat the primer into case with a clamp and done, reloaded primer that can be reloaded many times.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7nphPRG6JA

[Catshooter]

Well, the Obamascare lasted for about three years and it wasn't nearly this bad or quick.

I think it's gonna be quite a long dry spell until things returns to 'normal', whatever that will look like.


Cat

[dragon813gt]

Maybe it depended on where you live? But things were back to normal within a year by me. It took the four years for ARs to become cheap. But the supply was there well before three years in.

I came to a realization earlier in the week. We have been aware of the situation for awhile because we're active shooters. A lot of casual shooters are just realizing there are shortages. Which isn't helping things at all. I got a call from a friend's father wondering why the ammo shelves at Wal-Mart are almost empty. This is a guy who I shoot with a few times a year and is very politically active. But he didn't realize there were supply issues because he isn't on the internet and only buys ammo as he needs it. I know there are a lot of people out there like this. And the more that come to realize there are supply issues will just cause the situation to last longer.

[Crusty Deary Ol'Coot]

That could be correct, and a good point.

I had a fellow contact me by "PM" just a few days ago, because I had commented that as of a week ago this past Monday, there was still CCI Blazer available in the area by the case.

No so today, by the way, but this fellow just wanted enough ammo to take his son and grandson out to do a bit of squrrel hunting.

He was willing to pay for shipping to the midwest from here in Idaho. Too bad, he was too late.

Crusty Deary Ol'Coot