Component manufacture/distribution capability?

[avogunner]

Yeah, I remember the primer shortage from 2009 and needless to say, this round is worse by a factor of 10! BUT...........the manufacturers must sill be producing primers and other components, right? 4 years ago, I remember reading that CCI, Winchester, etc all added shifts to their production lines and were producing 24/7 to meet demand and I would imagine the same today (revenue is revenue after all). If so, where is what they're producing going? All my normal outlets are still "Out of Stock", some even say no backorders, and I just saw that police depts are having trouble buying ammo! I would think cases of stuff are rolling out of the warehouses daily but to who? Wouldn't it be reasonable to have expected at least small amounts of stuff available by now? What are their projected schedules? My background isn't manufactureing so I don't know and I'm interested in hearing others thoughts.

Oh too, aren't we still importing powder (Hodgdon) an other foriegn made components (Prvi, Fiocci, Cheddite, S&B, etc)? Where is that going?

Semper Fi.

[btroj]

Where is I going? Right home with someone who buys it.

I was at Cabelas yesterday. It might as well have been a week before Christmas. Yes, that many people there, many buying.

Shelves are pretty bare, gun cases very bare.

It is being bought as soon as it hits the shelves.

I can assure you it isn't because the manufacturers aren't producing stuff. They are making things fast as they can, they just aren't keeping up with demand.

[44 WCF]

I have considerable experience with inventory management (industrial markets) and we keep inventory on hand to supply projected usages, with seasonal adjustments up and down based upon what we think we will sell. It's tricky at times, but experience and sales history we can be fairly accurate in keeping back orders to a minimum and preventing overstock in the warehouses. Couple years ago, heavy winter snow created unusual demand on some items, we sold all our inventory in days rather than weeks, we wiped out our suppliers regional warehouse in two weeks, in short we never could fill some of the back orders. Everyone even the manufactureres operate on projections of sales and usages. If you are a manufacturer and you want to add a second shift for production, you have to go through the hiring process, then the training process before they can produce one item. And, don't forget, can they buy the increased need for raw materials, their material suppliers will be limited response also.................tough to react quickly

[runfiverun]

i have been to atk where they make primer compound,and solid rocket fuel too.
they have processes they have to follow and safety procedures.
you don't just ramp up production.
it's not like dumping component-a and component-b and some water in a machine, turning it on and you have a paste shoot out the back.

[jonas302]

I'm willing to bet the plants were already at the edge of keeping up from the election

[462]

Any glitch in the supply chain -- be it from the weather, raw materials, the product manufacturer, the distributor/wholesaler, the retailer, or the buyer -- will create shortages that may take months to get back to normal. This time, we were hit with two, almost back-to-back glitches -- a presidential election and the Newtown shooting, and it was the buyer that created the glitch.

A quick perusal of Gunbroker primer auctions will reveal that, those who acted quickly and those who didn't, are showing just how well capitalism works. I suspect that when availability is back to normal, those who didn't act quickly enough will be kicking themselves, for paying more than double the usual price.

[troyboy]

I hear what is being said but still. What did all the horders do the last time? Where did it all go? Are there really that many more. Where were they on election day? Bunch of muttonheads continuing to cause problems for the true gun bugs.

[btroj]

Muttonheads? True gun bugs? Really?

The stuff is being purchased. Who buys it is of no relevance. Would you prefer that ammo sot on the shelves and the manufacturers and retailers go belly up?

Hoarding is rampant because people are afraid. They are worried that the WH will get what it wants and ammo and firearms will be taxed into oblivian.

A company can't just suddenly triple production of something like primers or bullets. Only so much equipment and so many trained operators. Buying and hiring isn't the answer because in a year or two it leads to excess machinery and lay offs.

Be patient. It will level out. Always has, always does. Once it does, buy enough to keep ahead of short term issues like this.

You can be a planner or a victim, which do YOU want to be?

[HATCH]

You should of been hoarding before he got re-elected.
The best you can do now is ride out the storm. It will calm down once they do something.....
Only **** part is if they tax it or make it require a back ground check.....

[fatnhappy]

Where were they on election day? Bunch of muttonheads continuing to cause problems for the true gun bugs.

Where were you? Didn't you learn from the Clinton primer shortage of 1993?

I started buying and laying in a large surplus in 2008.

[Down South]

Last go round it was also rumored that plants were supplying military contracts to a then very active war.
I had to drive by the local Bass Pro today so I decided to stop and to see if by chance maybe some 22 rim fire might be on the shelves.
It was like mentioned in a post above, like before Christmas. I counted 19 handguns larger than a 22 rim fire in the glass cases. Several cases were completely empty. The long gun racks were suffering too. The ammo shelves were pretty much bare.
One thing that can be said, Obummer is the best firearm and ammo salesman ever. He is also a great reloading supply salesman.
Now you do have to consider, this is Houston with a large population and supplies have dried up fast.
I'm just beginning to realize that being known as a caster and reloader may have not been the best thing. I've been hit up several times lately to sell reloads or help out. A lady and her husband across the street just bought a Beretta 92 at the gun show and they asked me about ammo too. They got the gun but can't find ammo. They bought a 50 rd box of ball at the show at an inflated price but actually got the pistol at a resonable price. Neither one know beans about the pistol, husband has never shot a gun but they want me to teach them. 50 rds won't go far. I actually cut the tie wrap out of the barrel and showed them how the slide worked a few minutes ago.

[waksupi]

Where were you? Didn't you learn from the Clinton primer shortage of 1993?

I started buying and laying in a large surplus in 2008.

I started in when Bush 1 was still in office. Things were starting to stink back then even.

Got to remember Dean, some of these guys here weren't even alive in '93.

[Blacksmith]

Just imagine when everybody figures it is time to stock up on food, clothes, fuel and everything else. Instead of empty shelves in the gun store it will be the grocery, pharmacy, and department store.

[Down South]

I've been working on my stock for a number of years, always order more than I use plus extra stuff that I didn't have to begin with. If it all shut down right now, I'd have plenty to last me even doing target practice. I'd have to cut back but I could make it. My problem would be all those who know what I have. It's already becoming a problem. People are already wanting me to "make some reloads for them". I guess that they think what I have grew on trees, I don't know.
I've been reloading for about 40 yrs now. I learned many years back the value of saving brass. I always told folks, save your brass. Nobody listens. Folks ask me about reloads, I ask them, you have any brass. The answer is always the same, No. They don't understand that the brass is one thing that I can't let go of. I can reload their brass a lot easier than I can let go of mine.

[chrisw]

my neighbor has well over 10,000 rounds of 5.56. And no gun. He's investing in ammo and planning on making a killing when he can. At the moment he is moment he is selling 20 round boxes for 35 bucks while buying as much as he can. He is also stockpiling part kits, pistol grips, heck, anything he can find. Oh, and no gun nor plans to buy a gun... He's just a redneck kid, 25, lives at home working full time and rolling his salary into his stockpile.


IMHO he is a criminal but when you know of dozens of people, most that don't even own guns, buying mags, bullets, everything... Planning on making a killing here when things get bad...

well- personally I'm just waiting til they figure out that this is the worse it gets and paying $1/round of ammo that's worth 25-34cents a round and hording it planning to sell is STUPID (not to mention at least a felony of running a unlicensed gun retail shop).

these are the idiots ruining it for the rest of us. If we didn't have all these speculators actually buying up the supply, seeing prices go up, so they buy more planning on selling in 6 months to a year once ammo hits $10/round....

I wish Obanya would enforce the laws on the books... Oh- and this kids dad is a cop and doesn't see anything wrong with it-

[Blacksmith]

chrisw
Guys like that frequently get burned when the supply eases prices drop and he will be left holding stock he paid a dollar a round for when it is worth fifty cents.

[a.squibload]

Had a wild thought:
Manufacturers may not want to invest in additional capacity for fear of their product
becoming contraband in the near future due to regulation, executive fiat, etc.
???

[btroj]

I don't think fear of it becoming a banned product. It is a reality that this will blow over and extra equipment bought now will then become unused. Extra people hired now will need to be trained, which is expensive for a business, and then laid off in a year or two.
A business doesn't want to increase plant size and production equipment based upon a market spike, they look to see what the normal level of demand is and meet that.

The manufacturers are making a sound business decision. They have to look out forthe long term health of their business, not the short term needs of hoarders.

[chrisw]

chrisw
Guys like that frequently get burned when the supply eases prices drop and he will be left holding stock he paid a dollar a round for when it is worth fifty cents.

yes, but these marginal buyers are a large part of what is causing these problems.

heck- the magazine shortage is OVER already! ASC, PRI and CPD are selling mags at list prices. But we still have these fools stocking up with enough to last 10 lifetimes. Oh, and I'm not really sure out there ever was a .223 bullet shortage- I'm still seeing .345/round prices on slickguns???

[starmac]

You have also got to think, we have record amounts of new gun owners since 2008, and these records are getting broke daily.

I have seen reports of gun shows with waiting times of up to 4 hours just to get in the door, how could manufacturers even begin to keep up with it.

[chrisw]

I'd love for the NRA to name Obanya/News Media the firearm co-men of the Year for promoting such record breaking sales... Maybe that would be enough to wake up the news mediia

[hanleyfan]

I checked the Cabelas web site and saw they had Federal large rifle pimers in stock and Remington magnum large rifle primers in stock, they also had some Remington 30cal. 180gr. bullets in stock which I have been looking for, well like a fool I decided to wait until monday morn to order some since this was 11:00 in the evening no one would order any thing until morn. well I got up at 7:00am and looked and everything was sold out already! I am still kicking my *** for not ordering Sunday Evening. I think retailers should put a limit on how many a individual can buy until this run is over. It would stop 1 or 2 individual from buying up all the stock. The only reason I am looking for reloading supplies now is I just got a 30-06 for my birthday the 2nd of Jan. and I don't have any thing for it yet.

[Love Life]

You would just get the people that come through the line several times.

[TXGunNut]

Big box stores generally buy direct from the mfgr. Manufacturing schedules are made months in advance based on orders from buyers. Retailers, distributors and manufacturers generally try to have a minimum inventory on hand on Jan 1 for tax purposes, other times of the year they try to only keep inventory on hand to meet short-term needs. None of these practices work well with panic buying.

[popper]

Had to drop off some papers at SS fir the wife this morning. The Toyota dealership was right behind it so I looked at the new 4runners. Guess I'll keep mine. Cabelas was on the way back so I stopped. Racks were pretty bare but a clearance A400 walked out with me. I used up my Christmas Academy cards on a couple cases of shell, need to go check out the new one. Met a fellow who offered me some 308 brass so I need to call him back. They did have a lot of 22LR 50 count on the shelves.

[troyboy]

A muttonhead is an individual who has no interest in the hobby and is panic buying. Myself.. I plan ahead.

[TXGunNut]

I saw lots of empty shelf space @ Cabelas this weekend. Nothing on the used rifle rack interested me but I guess I should have inquired about primers. A friend was in the recently wanting to get into reloading and they told him they didn't have enough merchandise on hand to get him started.
Spent a bit of time on the Midway site trying to take advantage of my birthday savings and was rather dismayed by all the "out of stock-no backorder" items. I've seen a few cycles of ammo/component shortages but this may be the biggest one yet. Glad I don't need anything.

[Down South]

I've seen a few cycles of ammo/component shortages but this may be the biggest one yet. Glad I don't need anything.
I'm thinking the same thing. I wonder how long this one will last? I'm glad that I don't need anything either.

[MT Gianni]

I've been working on my stock for a number of years, always order more than I use plus extra stuff that I didn't have to begin with. If it all shut down right now, I'd have plenty to last me even doing target practice. I'd have to cut back but I could make it. My problem would be all those who know what I have. It's already becoming a problem. People are already wanting me to "make some reloads for them". I guess that they think what I have grew on trees, I don't know.
I've been reloading for about 40 yrs now. I learned many years back the value of saving brass. I always told folks, save your brass. Nobody listens. Folks ask me about reloads, I ask them, you have any brass. The answer is always the same, No. They don't understand that the brass is one thing that I can't let go of. I can reload their brass a lot easier than I can let go of mine.

Tell them if they get the components you are willing to walk them through the process.

[chrisw]

Tell them if they get the components you are willing to walk them through the process.

or teach classes charging enough to buy yourself a few new toys!

[Down South]

Well, it's started. A couple came over last night requesting that I guide them on what components to purchase. I warned them on the unavailability of powder and primers. We did locate jacketed bullets and they ordered 500. They were 9mm 125 gr hp. I have a surplus of 9mm brass so I told them I would spot them a few hundred primers and enough powder to make a few hundred rounds.
They are sorting through another bucket of range brass of mine picking out the 9mm. The guy below sorted through one bucket of mine scrounging 9mm. I figured that there were a few hundred rds in it. He came back with a big grin and said he found over 1800 rds of 9mm in the bucket. Geeez, I thought to myself if I knew that, I would have limited him. Regardless, I have boxes of 9mm on the shelves in my shop. 40 yrs of scrounging brass can add up.

Another guy I broke in on one of my Dillons the past two nights reloading .380 and 38 Specials. He has his own press still in the box but I was already set up with the Dillon. I was able to teach him a good bit about the basics of reloading under strict supervision of course.
He has been reading one of my old reloading books "Speer #9". I told him to read everything in it up to the beginning of the load data.