Analyze Target Please

[Ickisrulz]

43494

Load: .338 Winchester Magnum, 200 grain GC bullet (BRP 342-200 GC), 28.5 grains of IMR 4227, CCI 250 primer.

I shot this target at 50 yards. Each group was 5 shots. Target 1 has a couple of 30 caliber holes I shot by mistake.

As you can see, targets 1 and 2 had pretty big groups. But on targets 3 and 4 the holes are all touching.

Can you explain to me what happen between targets 2 and 3? I assume the barrel optimally fouled or heated up?

Rifle is a Winchester Model 70 which has a barrel shortened to 18". It has a 4x Weaver scope (K-4?).

[shooterg]

Could be you were holding harder !

[2ndAmendmentNut]

The barrel getting properly fouled or "seasoned" could be a factor, also you could have simple been more familiar with the rifle by then.

[2ndAmendmentNut]

Could have also shot out the oil if you cleaned the barrel last time you used it.

[tomme boy]

Head position on stock. You got more comfortable as you shot. The scopes paralax is set for a farther distance than 50yds.

[Pitchnit]

Was the barell clean when you started? I am not a rifle man except for my .22s but right after I clean one, at fifty yards, they shoot 1-1/4 to 1-1/2" groups. I shoot groups of 5 and by the time I have shot 25 they are nice and tight 1 holers. My 22's only get cleaned once the accuracy starts to drop off, usually 750-1000 rounds. I dont know if this applies to centerfire but it also holds true in my slug gun. Dont clean it til after the season. Regards, Pitchnit

[geargnasher]

I observe that quite often. Runfiverun and I have agreed recently that it takes as many as 20 shots for a given combination of components to "settle in". With a good load and good lube, the fouling will stablize after 10-20 shots and you're good to go until you clean it. One reason I don't like cleaning bores once things are working is the "season" gets screwed up and you have to start over. Of course some guns and loads are less prone to this than others, a lot depends on the lube you use, the temperature range of shooting, how much residue the powder leaves, and the bore condition and material. I don't have any chrome-lined guns, but my stainless guns season in 3-4 shots at most, and some of my carbon steel rifles take at least 20 to fully settle in.

Gear

[Ickisrulz]

This is a stainless rifle. I have only shot 20 rounds of jacketed and then 40 cast rounds. I'm not sure if I cleaned it the last time I had it out. I don't see any unburned powder in the bore. after this weekend's shooting.

The lube I use is equal parts bee's wax, paraffin wax and petroleum jelly. The bullets are WW +1% tin, water dropped. I have no idea about velocity.

I'll make up some more ammo and try it again and see what happens.

[Wolfer]

When using my homemade lube of one cake of parrifin to one Johnny bowl ring in my 45 colt it would take at least 12 shots after cleaning to settle in. Another thing I noticed is if I had been shooting another pistol and this gun hadent been shot for a couple weeks or more the first shot would be 3 inches or more out of the group. One shot would freshen it so to speak and after that all was well. Usually not an issue but before I go hunting I run a cyl full thru the night before.

[John Boy]

Cases annealed and mouth chamfered or not?
Unequal neck tension for all the reloads

[Ickisrulz]

Cases annealed and mouth chamfered or not?
Unequal neck tension for all the reloads

Neither. They were brand new cases on their second load.

[Frank]

Ickishulz:

This is a stainless rifle. I have only shot 20 rounds of jacketed and then 40 cast rounds. I'm not sure if I cleaned it the last time I had it out. I don't see any unburned powder in the bore. after this weekend's shooting.

You must have copper in that bore and you're shooting lead over it. It looks like you found your load. Clean your barrel, get the copper out and load some more like that and see if you can make more small groups. Load enough more so you can test to see if the shots still take 10 rounds to settle in. If it does it like that again, that proves the seasoning theory. :coffeecom:

[runfiverun]

i can't add too much to what gear said.
i will bet that your next group [if you don't clean the bbl] looks eerily similar to target number one though.

[TCLouis]

If you have it try 39.0 3031. It does not perform near as well with my 200 grain RCBS boolits, but is a tack driver with 220 Lee's out of Model 70!

Like the others have said, it looks like bore was getting "seasoned" as the shooting went on.

In roughly 1000 rounds out of my Husky 5500 7mm Mag last winter I cleaned 2-3 ,maybe up to 5 times by pushing a dry rough (wool sock) cloth patch over a worn out bore brush thru the bore several times.

That barrel has been "polished" and does NOT foul in the least.

[Larry Gibson]

Between targets 2 - 4 it's called "random selection" as to where the shots hit. Five shots is not a statistically valid sample to determine accuracy, especially at 50 yards. Assuming the sight (scope) was not changed and the point of aim was the same then over laying the groups will give a much more realistic concept of the actual accuracy capability.....at 50 yards of the load and rifle. Doing so it appears the #2 target is slightly smaller than the probable accuracy of that load. Moving to 100 yards will probably see a larger than linear expansion of that accuracy with probable vertical stringing.

I would suggest a dacron filler with 4227 in that case with that cast bullet and test at 100 yards with 10 shot groups.

Larry Gibson

[Frank]

Larry Gibson:

I would suggest a dacron filler with 4227 in that case with that cast bullet and test at 100 yards with 10 shot groups.
His last ten shots were good. Now he has to work on the improvements. He should move the target out, preferably to 200 yards. :idea: When he finds his moa load, he can tell me what his powder and charge is and what others he has available. I can put info into Quickload and tell him what powder charge for another powder he can try that goes the same velocity.

[Ickisrulz]

I appreciate all the responses and advice. I have to cast some more before I can give this rifle another go. I'll do that in the next few days and hopefully be ready for the next weekend.

I won't clean the barrel, I'll use filler with the same powder and charge, and shoot at 100 yards. I'll post my results for further consideration.

[Larry Gibson]

Frank

If the load was the same, the point of aim was the same and no sight adjustments made then, for a range of 50 yards, there is a distinct disparity between the point of impact between groups 3 & 4 not to mention group 2. If we just consider groups 3 & 4 then that 11 oclock shot out of group 4 is telling us something not to mention the different points of impacts between those two groups and that of group 2. Overlay the groups and you get a sufficient sample for analysis. Lengthen the range and further testing with sufficient sample size (7 - 10 shot groups) and the accuracy potential becomes meaningful. Just by looking at groups 3 & 4 and ignoring groups 1 & 2 along with the parameters of the individual shot groups and we could easily get led into a false assumption as to the actual accuracy potential of that load.

While groups 3 & 4 are good five shot groups for 50 yards the OP asked for an explanation of what happened between groups (targets) 2 & 3. I did not percieve he wanted smoke blown where the sun doesn't shine. What happened between groups 2 & 3 was probably random dispersion of the shots as explained.

Larry Gibson

[Larry Gibson]

Frank

Perhaps I was a little curt in that last post, my opologies.....didn't mean it to sound that way.

For a more detailed explanation of assuming accuracy from 3 or 5 shot groups and "random dispersion" I suggest you take a look at my post #38 in

http://castboolits.gunloads.com/showthread.php?t=145737&highlight=7.62x54R

I provide a detailed explaination and an example in that post. Note in those 2 targets you could select any number of 5 shot groups that would appear to be very good and all would apear to have a different zero. However, once the sample got large enough (10 shots) the true nature of that load's accuracy became apparent and the zero was consistent.

Larry Gibson

[soldierbilly1]

Icki:
My own personal belief is that rifles, such as 338, should not be shot at 50 yards, very little is gleaned from this. You should move to 100 - 200 yds. Most bullets dont go to sleep till after 125 - 150 yards anyways. I really dunno bout cast boolits.
How many minutes between shots? between groups?
When I go hunting I set up on a fouled barrel, lightly swabbed with patch, no solvent. I sighted in with a fouled bore and this is the way I will hunt.
The barrel's heat, your load, rifle heat, and the nut behind the butt are BIG variables for sure.
The last two groups are real nice, bag technique may or may not have ruined the 1st two groups. Are you a practiced bag shooter? What do you normally get with J bullets?

[Frank]

Larry Gibson:

If we just consider groups 3 & 4 then that 11 oclock shot out of group 4 is telling us something not to mention the different points of impacts between those two groups and that of group 2. Overlay the groups and you get a sufficient sample for analysis. Lengthen the range and further testing with sufficient sample size (7 - 10 shot groups) and the accuracy potential becomes meaningful. Just by looking at groups 3 & 4 and ignoring groups 1 & 2 along with the parameters of the individual shot groups and we could easily get led into a false assumption as to the actual accuracy potential of that load.
I wouldn't read so much into the off shots. Something is working for it to produce group 3. Has he tried to load higher and lower powder charges? We have no clue. I assume he has tried every load with that powder and that is the sweet spot. He should definitely use Dacron. He's not going to walk away now from that load, right? That's the best load he currently has.

[Ickisrulz]

Larry Gibson:

I wouldn't read so much into the off shots. Something is working for it to produce group 3. Has he tried to load higher and lower powder charges? We have no clue. I assume he has tried every load with that powder and that is the sweet spot. He should definitely use Dacron. He's not going to walk away now from that load, right? That's the best load he currently has.

This was the second load I tried. The first time out with a lighter charge produced results similar to the first two groups. Not very encouraging.

I see what Larry Gibson is saying about needing larger group sizes to prove a load consistantly accurate. I won't argue with him. On the other hand, the last two groups really caught my attention. That is why I posted the question here asking what happened.

As soon as I get more rounds loaded up, I'll try more rounds into the same target at 100 yards and see what happens.

[soldierbilly1]

Frank

Perhaps I was a little curt in that last post, my opologies.....didn't mean it to sound that way.

For a more detailed explanation of assuming accuracy from 3 or 5 shot groups and "random dispersion" I suggest you take a look at my post #38 in

http://castboolits.gunloads.com/showthread.php?t=145737&highlight=7.62x54R

I provide a detailed explaination and an example in that post. Note in those 2 targets you could select any number of 5 shot groups that would appear to be very good and all would apear to have a different zero. However, once the sample got large enough (10 shots) the true nature of that load's accuracy became apparent and the zero was consistent.

Larry Gibson
Larry:
I read your post #38. Very interesting, I shot hipowr many years and we have had this discussion many times over the years with many folks. I know you like 10 shot groups, but a lot of my varmintin' friends (statisticians, too) preferred groups of 20!
billy

[Larry Gibson]

Hey, they caught my eye too. By no means am I saying it is not a good load as the potential is apparently there. Just need to find out with a little better testing is all and is my point.

Now, admitting to little cast experience with a 338 Win mag I also will say I'v a bit of experience with 4227 in other such large cases with similar weight bullets. That's the reason for the dacron filler recomendation; the 28.5 gr 4227 is probably 40% loading density at best. The dacron filler would no doubt give much better ignition consistency. Might even drop the charge a gr or two and work back up with the dacron filler.

Larry Gibson

[mainiac]

This was the second load I tried. The first time out with a lighter charge produced results similar to the first two groups. Not very encouraging.

I see what Larry Gibson is saying about needing larger group sizes to prove a load consistantly accurate. I won't argue with him. On the other hand, the last two groups really caught my attention. That is why I posted the question here asking what happened.

As soon as I get more rounds loaded up, I'll try more rounds into the same target at 100 yards and see what happens.

I reconize that target,,would like to have a buck for every one of them that i shot years back.IBS hunter class was my favorite.

[Larry Gibson]

Larry:
I read your post #38. Very interesting, I shot hipowr many years and we have had this discussion many times over the years with many folks. I know you like 10 shot groups, but a lot of my varmintin' friends (statisticians, too) preferred groups of 20!
billy

And I most certainly agree with 20 shot groups! I just use 10 shot groups as i do R&D for an ammuntion company and that is SAAMI's number of test shots per string. It gives close to 90% assurance and we must keep in mind there are other SAAMI specifications other than the MAP that ammunition must conform to. I always used 22 shot test strings for my HP loads as that's the number of shots the 600 yard "group" took. :drinks:

These days if a load looks good with 10 shots at 100 yards I also prefer 3 ten shot groups at 200 yards to confirm. I learned a long time ago the hard way shooting HP and long range rock chucks that 3 and even 5 shot test groups at 100 yards did not really tell me what an "accurate" load was.

Larry Gibson

BTW; speaking of HP and "accuracy"; how many times have you seen shooters chase the spotter and lose points instead of holding hard and just shooting their cone of fire?

[soldierbilly1]

Larry:
chasing the spotter, overclicking, failing to accept your wobble, etc. We hear these things but they do take time to learn!
Bag shooting is another world, and doing it with hunting rifles is another whole realm of grief! When I bag shoot to sight in, I try my best, but most dont realize it is not that easy, esp. if you are not decently trained in the art! Bench resting a pistol is another major learning process.
Gear's point of same POI day after boring day, is well taken.
BTW, Most guys that have heard of the 'cone' think about it, but many do not understand its significance, they continue to overcorrect.
But, back to topic, there are many variables indeed. I now sight in my hunting rifles on my hands, but my hands are sand bagged up. Seems to duplicate the real world better. I have yet to shoot a deer on sand bags!
billy boy

[Frank]

Larry Gibson:

Now, admitting to little cast experience with a 338 Win mag I also will say I'v a bit of experience with 4227 in other such large cases with similar weight bullets. That's the reason for the dacron filler recomendation; the 28.5 gr 4227 is probably 40% loading density at best. The dacron filler would no doubt give much better ignition consistency. Might even drop the charge a gr or two and work back up with the dacron filler.

Larry Gibson
I checked QL. Your load is going 1769 fps. And you only have 41% capacity. So Larry is right. That is not the right powder charge. Does your bullet base go no lower than the bottom of the neck? If so, then next time go up to 40.0 grains 4227 and go up or down a grain in 1/2 grain increments. That should put you in the 2100 fps +/- region.

If your bullet base is below the neck, I don't know what to tell you. You need to go slower I have been told. But if you get below 50% case capacity and use filler that is also not accurate.

[Larry Gibson]

soldierbilly1

You don't shoot deer of sandbags! What kind of hunting is that? You mean you actually walk out in the woods and try to find them......LOLs

I usually zero my deer hunting rifles at 200 yards and do so from prone resting my forarm over my back pack like I would be for a long range shot. That's where I need the most accuracy. If I shoot from sitting , kneeling or standing with a rest then that zero will be close enough to 200 yards for deer shooting. I also agree with gear but don't tell him as he might think I'm getting soft on him......

Larry Gibson

[Ickisrulz]

Larry Gibson:

I checked QL. Your load is going 1769 fps. And you only have 41% capacity. So Larry is right. That is not the right powder charge. Does your bullet base go no lower than the bottom of the neck? If so, then next time go up to 40.0 grains 4227 and go up or down a grain in 1/2 grain increments. That should put you in the 2100 fps +/- region.

If your bullet base is below the neck, I don't know what to tell you. You need to go slower I have been told. But if you get below 50% case capacity and use filler that is also not accurate.

The base of the bullet is about even with the bottom of the neck.

Is 40.0 grains of IMR 4227 safe? Lyman says 35.0 is maximum with Lee's 220 grain design. I have no experience developing loads without a manual!

[Frank]

Ickisrulz:

The base of the bullet is about even with the bottom of the neck.

Is 40.0 grains of IMR 4227 safe? Lyman says 35.0 is maximum with Lee's 220 grain design. I have no experience developing loads without a manual!

It's safe. It should be right around 33,000. The 338 WM operates up to 62,000 psi according to QL. The limitation in Lyman is speed. If they took it faster they got lousy results. They're right. Stick to the Lyman velocities. 2100-2200 is what you want with that twist and that bullet/neck.

[Ickisrulz]

Ickisrulz:


It's safe. It should be right around 33,000. The 338 WM operates up to 62,000 psi according to QL. The limitation in Lyman is speed. If they took it faster they got lousy results. They're right. Stick to the Lyman velocities. 2100-2200 is what you want with that twist and that bullet/neck.

I'll give 40 grains of 4227 a try and see what I does. I'll report back.

[Frank]

A good powder is W748. Do you have any of that?

[Ickisrulz]

A good powder is W748. Do you have any of that?

No.

I have 2400, Unique, IMR 4895, WC 844 (H335). Maybe a 1/4 pound of 4198.

[runfiverun]

just keep working up what you have.
dacron would be helpfull for/as the next step.
another 100-150 fps will be about right the dacron will give you 50 of that right off.
i shoot 20 shot groups when trying new loads unless the bbl gets too hot then i go with 2 10 shot groups.
i just done a 100 shot group over an 8 hour period consisting of 5- 20 shot groups.
the total was 1-1/2" group made up of several smaller groups progressing across the target in small incremental changes throughout the day.

[Frank]

Ickisrulz:

I have 2400, Unique, IMR 4895, WC 844 (H335). Maybe a 1/4 pound of 4198.
Forget 2400. It uses too little case capacity for the powder charge you want. For the powder you have, you might as well load 6 or 7 of each with these charges. A shot or two of each to get the barrel used to the powder, then a 5-shot group at 100 will work. You will know right away if that powder is good or not. Then next time you can load up or down to fine tune. Load several extra of 28.5 IMR 4227 and shoot those first. Get good with that like you did with target #3 & 4 before you try the new loads. When you shoot the 40+ grain loads, expect it to print higher. So shoot the first loads at the bottom of your target frame/box whatever you use.

IMR 4227: 28.5 grains- 20
IMR 4227: 40.0 grains - 7
IMR 4895: 49.0 grains - 7
H335: 48.5 grains - 7
IMR4198: 40.0 gains - 7
Total: - 48 rounds.

[Ickisrulz]

Ickisrulz:

Forget 2400. It uses too little case capacity for the powder charge you want. For the powder you have, you might as well load 6 or 7 of each with these charges. A shot or two of each to get the barrel used to the powder, then a 5-shot group at 100 will work. You will know right away if that powder is good or not. Then next time you can load up or down to fine tune. Load several extra of 28.5 IMR 4227 and shoot those first. Get good with that like you did with target #3 & 4 before you try the new loads. When you shoot the 40+ grain loads, expect it to print higher. So shoot the first loads at the bottom of your target frame/box whatever you use.

IMR 4227: 28.5 grains- 20
IMR 4227: 40.0 grains - 7
IMR 4895: 49.0 grains - 7
H335: 48.5 grains - 7
IMR4198: 40.0 gains - 7
Total: - 48 rounds.

Thanks for your help. I'll give it a try. It will take a little while though since I only have so many cases.

[Ickisrulz]

Ickisrulz:

Forget 2400. It uses too little case capacity for the powder charge you want. For the powder you have, you might as well load 6 or 7 of each with these charges. A shot or two of each to get the barrel used to the powder, then a 5-shot group at 100 will work. You will know right away if that powder is good or not. Then next time you can load up or down to fine tune. Load several extra of 28.5 IMR 4227 and shoot those first. Get good with that like you did with target #3 & 4 before you try the new loads. When you shoot the 40+ grain loads, expect it to print higher. So shoot the first loads at the bottom of your target frame/box whatever you use.

IMR 4227: 28.5 grains- 20
IMR 4227: 40.0 grains - 7
IMR 4895: 49.0 grains - 7
H335: 48.5 grains - 7
IMR4198: 40.0 gains - 7
Total: - 48 rounds.

Which loads need filler?

[Ickisrulz]

I just got back from the range.

IMR 4227 28.5 grains with 1.5 grains of poly fill resulted in 10 shot groups (2) of 2.1 and 2.4 inches at 100 yards.

40.0 grains of 4227 with poly fill was terrible...6+ inches at 100 yards.

[Larry Gibson]

I just got back from the range.

IMR 4227 28.5 grains with 1.5 grains of poly fill resulted in 10 shot groups (2) of 2.1 and 2.4 inches at 100 yards.

40.0 grains of 4227 with poly fill was terrible...6+ inches at 100 yards.


Load: .338 Winchester Magnum, 200 grain GC bullet (BRP 342-200 GC),

Probable 10" twist out of your .338 Win Mag. the 28.5 gr load was pushing 1800 - 1900 fps which is probably the best accuracy range for that twist. Lyman lists 35 gr as pushing the Lee 220 gr bullet at 2078 fps so your 200 gr cast over 40 gr with poly fill was well above that. That is way to fast an accelleration and the velocity/RPM is way to high. That load is just pushing that cast bullet too much with or without the polly fill. Load probably is "safe" but a 6"+ group at 100 yards is a pretty sad :cry: "safe" in my opinion. I would be happy with the 28.5 gr load if you just want a shootable load. If you want to push the envelope then using a much slower burning powder would be better.

Larry Gibson

[Frank]

Larry Gibson:

o your 200 gr cast over 40 gr with poly fill was well above that
How much faster do you think it's going? :coffeecom

[Larry Gibson]

I suppose if we had all the info from Ickisrulz we could run Quickload? But not having that considering Lyman is showing 2078 fps with 35 gr under a 220 gr bullet w/o a filler or wad. There is a 9 gr spread between the starting load at 1665 fps which gives close to 46 fps per gr gain. So 5 additional gr x 46 = 229 possible additional fps (+/-) with the 220 gr bullet over 40 gr 4227.

So the 40 gr 4227 under the 200 gr bullet with a polly fill is probably pushing 2300 - 2400 fps (+/-). That's just an estimation and there are a lot of variables so there is no way of really knowing without chronographing. But given the 6"+ group over the 2 - 2.5 moa group of the more sedate 28.5 gr load that 40 gr load is pushing that bullet way over the RPM threshold, no doubt about that.

Larry Gibson

[Frank]

Quickload shows my load going 2180 fps. But since I add all that Dacron, I could be pushing it 2400 fps, which I don't need because I'm using a SP, which already has the largest working range, just the right amount of expansion and full penetration, unlike a HP which opens too fast and doesn't penetrate or doesn't open up and poor wound channel.

[Larry Gibson]

Nope, 2400 fps certainly isn't needed but it sure would be nice for hunting. A slower burning powder would probably be better to push that cast bullet that high. I suspect that high flyer is telling you some thing. Have you shot that load at 200 Yards? If it holds linear group dispersion then it will kill deer all day long. However, if the group opens more than it should a slower powder might be needed as mentioned. If it isn't broke though I wouldn't "fix it".

Were you using "all that Dacron" in that load?

Larry Gibson

[Frank]

Larry Gibson:

I suspect that high flyer is telling you some thing. Have you shot that load at 200 Yards?
I shoot that load at 300 yards and it holds 1/2 MOA. The flier is nothing load related. That is all the shooter. The case is packed with Dacron to the neck.

[Larry Gibson]

Larry Gibson:

I shoot that load at 300 yards and it holds 1/2 MOA. The flier is nothing load related. That is all the shooter. The case is packed with Dacron to the neck.

In that case it's not a "flyer" but a "called shot" which is good....in a sense:drinks:

Larry Gibson

[Frank]

Larry Gibson:

In that case it's not a "flyer" but a "called shot" which is good....in a sense
Right. We try to be machine rests but if you miss something....:violin:

[HangFireW8]

I observe that quite often. Runfiverun and I have agreed recently that it takes as many as 20 shots for a given combination of components to "settle in".

Coming in a little late on this part of the conversation...

After cleaning I run a patch coated with the same boolit lube I'm planning on using next time out. Then I inspect the chamber and bore for any globs, and clean the chamber with a solvent and dry (being careful not to let the solvent get down the bore).

Pre-coating like this, I found, greatly reduces the number of fouler shots needed, on some rifles to zero.

HF

[Frank]

Runfiverun:

I observe that quite often. Runfiverun and I have agreed recently that it takes as many as 20 shots for a given combination of components to "settle in".
Another benefit of cast. You can keep shooting and the bore stays the same. With each shot the gas check scrapes out lead and lube left behind, unlike the jacketed that by 20 rounds or so the bore is fouled with copper. So you can shoot all day and never touch a cleaning rod, put the gun away and take it out next time and it'll do it the same. You can go for hundreds of rounds and it will be the same.

[Ickisrulz]

Load: .338 Winchester Magnum, 200 grain GC bullet (BRP 342-200 GC),

I would be happy with the 28.5 gr load if you just want a shootable load. If you want to push the envelope then using a much slower burning powder would be better.

Larry Gibson

I guess I should have stated my goal, which is just a shootable, inexpensive load at this point.

I will most likely work my way through my partially filled powder bottles until they are empty. I know this doesn't sound scientific or committed, but I have a major move coming up and I'd hate to have a dozen partially filled powder containers.

After I use up my 4227, I'll do some attempts with WC844 and see what happens.