Experts Baffled By Crime Rate Dropped

[leadman]

There is an article on the MSN home page that states the experts are baffled by the drop in the crime rates despite the bad economy that usually increases the crime rates.

Do you think the addition of many states allowing concealed carry had anything to do with it? Even if it could be proven the "experts" would not admit this was the cause.

I know if I was a criminal I would do some hard thinking before attacking another. You don't know if they or someone close by is carrying. Course this would not include the drug ccrazies out there that are not thinking.

[DIRT Farmer]

Partly, even OSHA has found robbing armed people creates a hazardous work enviroment.

[Bret4207]

I don;t know where they are dropping, but it's not dropping around me.

[Dutch4122]

"Statistics" and "data gathering" are always skewed towards what the individual gathering the data wants to prove, or disprove. Especially when the work is done for a customer that has an agenda.

Violent crime is definately on the rise in the Flint, MI area. We've been on fire for months with no end in sight. I've been on three bank robberies in the last four weeks alone. The courts and jail are literally choking on the number of assaults, weapons cases, and drug related crime cases we are sending to them. Along with that goes all the petty crimes that don't get much attention in the news such as Larceny, Destruction of Property, Fraud, Home Invasions, Domestic Violence, etc.

If you live in an area that is relatively low crime and stable you should count your blessings; but at the same time you should be careful and vigilant. A little "CYA" and common sense can go a long way to making sure you and your family stay safe.

[contender1]

I saw that story. My first thoughts were; "I wonder if it's because of the increase of CCW, relaxed self defense laws, and the increase of gun sales?" Notice, if you read the TYPES of crimes they say have dropped. The types where physical confrontation by the BG's are dropping. A study a long time ago, and even broadcast on TV where they interviewed crooks in prison had one main theme; Crooks prefer to NOT confront homeowners when committing their evil deeds. Why? Homeowners could be armed.
Nope, the major crime study groups will die before they admit that more legally armed citizens, who are allowed self defense WILL lower crime.

[starreloader]

Bret, I'm with you on this... The crime rate around here has NOT went down in the least.. Home invasions, thefts, day time burglaries and shootings all have increased... Don't know where MSN got their info but it is wrong... Just glad I'm not working the "streets" anymore..

[1Shirt]

Not dropping here much either!
1Shirt!:coffee:

[Wayne Smith]

Usually the source is the FBI Crime Statistics. Universally the most common relationship is between the incidence of crime and the age of the population. The higher the number of 18-26 year olds the higher the crime. As that portion of the population reduces crime reduces.

[Crawdaddy]

banner year in gun sales + drop in crime = an armed society is a polite society

[geargnasher]

banner year in gun sales + drop in crime = an armed society is a polite society

I'd like to think so, but who knows if there is a relationship between the areas where these types of crime have dropped and the increase in gun purchases. Thugs don't know who, outside of the illegal market, is buying guns. Hopefully the increase in gun sales has made an overall impression on the bad guys, but I doubt it will ever be proven. Until true gun freedom is restored in american, we'll never know just how much of a deterrent it is. I'll say this though, Texas and several other CCW states have seen a DRASTIC decrease in armed assaults since the implementation the CCW laws in the last few years, although the liberal media does their best to keep that a secret.

I live in the county, and shoot a lot. The little hispanic gangbangerwannabe thugs that roam the countryside around here give me a wide berth.

Gear

[Dutch4122]

, Texas and several other CCW states have seen a DRASTIC decrease in armed assaults since the implementation the CCW laws in the last few years, although the liberal media does their best to keep that a secret.
Gear

A big +1 on that. One thing that has improved in Michigan since the adoption of the shall issue CPL is the personal safety of much of the public that seriously needed to carry a firearm for self protection. Under the old "discreationary" (read POLITICAL) permit law these people were denied permits for no other reason than a panel of three bureacrats didn't think that these citizens had a valid "reason" to carry a gun. Apparently in our more liberal counties, self protection and the protection of one's family was not considered a valid "reason." I'm glad we were able to get the old CCW Permit law thrown out and replaced with the CPL system.

[Rafe Covington]

Got mugged in 1997, shot one of them, as long as there are savages that live among us there will be crime. You have to learn to take care of yourself and family or suffer the consequenses. JMHO

Rafe

[firefly1957]

Bret your state has no concealed weapon reform though I do agree crime does not seem any lower to me either . Maybe it has something to do with all the illegals that returned home?

[Bret4207]

FF, we have no uniform shall issue type laws but we do have a pretty fair number of armed citizens. Your idea about the illegals may have something to do with it too.

Having helped compile the stats at the station level for years, I wonder if the FBI changed anything in what info they required. Have a few changes in the way things are reported and the rate will rise or fall based just on that. It's possible.

[alamogunr]

I'm a county commissioner in our small county(Crockett Co, TN) and a member of the budget committee. We get to hear all the appeals for more money. Last meeting the Sheriff was asking for 2 more deputies immediately and 2 more next year(now this year). Seems that calls have more than doubled over the last 10 years. When asked what was responsible, he said that domestic disturbances were most of it. His deputies hated to answer those calls. More dangerous!

I suspect that in many locales that these are not included in the statistics.

[Jamesconn]

I haven't seen a drop in crime on the border there's never a dull moment. There's always armed illegals smuggling **** through our yards and the people that rob houses in my neighborhood wait till the woman is home alone because all the men have guns all the time but the women don't.

I dont think CCW has helped much atleast where I am if we actually become a gun friendly country then the crime will drop

PS it's almost a requirement to have a gun if your in Texas I only know 2 people that don't have guns one has hippie parents and the other is a Quaker.

[Jamesconn]

I haven't seen a drop in crime on the border there's never a dull moment. There's always armed illegals smuggling **** through our yards and the people that rob houses in my neighborhood wait till the woman is home alone because all the men have guns all the time but the women don't.

Keep nagging the women you love to carry they need it more than we do and not many carry at all.

I dont think CCW has helped much atleast where I am if we actually become a gun friendly country then the crime will drop
The only way I'd feel safe down here is to have a browning M3 .50bmg machine gun ontop of the house with a person manning it 24/7

[walltube]

City of New Orleans murder rate for 2011 is a 14.5% increase over 2010. 2012 holds promise of exceeding the 2011 body count. If some of the immediate adjoining areas' murder rates were added to N.O.'s count, that would be a much higher number.

N.O Mayor Mitch Landrieu ( U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu's baby bro) has today announced that he will activate Plan MB to curb the killings and other violent crimes. Midnight Basketball's astounding success in Atlanta, Los Angeles, Detroit, East St. Louis and other 'crime-town" cities have bouyed the Mayor's hopes.

I kid you not.

[perotter]

Crime has been going up around here too. I haven't run into anyone from around the country that isn't saying the same thing. IMO, the books are being cooked.

[94Doug]

Perhaps the study is based on incarceration. With all the alternatives to incarceration, and the pressure to let criminals out.....I'm just saying.

[oldgeezershooter]

Just saw the story where the young mother who lost her husband shot an intruder after calling 911 and asking if it was OK to shoot if they broke in. The operator told her she couldn't tell her to shoot but do whatever you have to to protect your baby. She shot and killed one and the other one turned himself in.
Maybe it will make some of the scum stop and think.

[725]

Crime stats. Figures lie & liars figure.

My jurisdiction back in the '70's had a murder rate around 300 / 350 per year. This year (2011) it's 190's plus. Better, right?

Population in the '70's was just under a million. Current population just south of 600,000. Huge loss of population have yielded smaller numbers. Crime just keeps on keeping on.

[c3d4b2]

:confused:Here is a link to the FBI report.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/preliminary-annual-ucr-jan-jun-2011/data-tables/table-4/table-4/view

I also wonder about how the incidents are coded by the officers. We are heading into an election year and the elected officials do not want to show crime increased on their watch. :confused:

[Bret4207]

I'm a county commissioner in our small county(Crockett Co, TN) and a member of the budget committee. We get to hear all the appeals for more money. Last meeting the Sheriff was asking for 2 more deputies immediately and 2 more next year(now this year). Seems that calls have more than doubled over the last 10 years. When asked what was responsible, he said that domestic disturbances were most of it. His deputies hated to answer those calls. More dangerous!

I suspect that in many locales that these are not included in the statistics.

Last I knew the Uniform Crime Reports included domestics and were broken down by type, ie- husband by wife, common law wife by common law husband, weapons involved, etc.

[Dutch4122]

FBI crime statistics do a poor job of reflecting the "workload" handled by officers in any jurisdiction. I work for a small dept. (28 officers from top to bottom) in a Township that borders the north end of Flint, MI. The population is between 20,000 to 25,000 "residents." In the Patrol Bureau we handle 30,000 911 calls a year with 3 Officers and 1 Sgt. on each shift. We work 12 hour shifts. Before the economy went down the drain and the budget cuts hit we were handling the same volume of calls with 5 patrolmen per shift. The Sgts. have mostly an administrative function which means that 3 Patrolmen are dealing with more than the lions share of those 30,000 911 calls and the resulting paperwork. Our Detective Bureau consists of 4 Detectives. They are basically a "Major Crimes" bureau. The minor complaints don't even go back there for investigation.

Domestics are more common than traffic stops. However, not as many of these calls require paperwork as most think. Many of these calls are just arguments and no arrest is made. In an "entitlement" community the police are viewed no different than their social services caseworkers; and are expected to solve their personal problems for them. The FBI statistics really don't reflect much of this activity. Other calls such as "trouble with a man" etc. many times end up with the same result. Somebody takes off before we arrive or leaves once we do arrive. Again, situations that require police response, but aren't reported to the FBI because no report is necessary due to no arrest, no crime committed, etc.

Petty crimes such as Larceny, Destruction of Property, Frauds, etc, as well as traffic accidents and the volume of workload they create due to time spent answering the calls, processing paperwork and possibly later court time are not things that are mentioned when you hear about FBI Statistics on the news. Even when Home Invasions (which are rampant in urban & suburban areas) are mentioned it is just as a footnote; and they take up a lot of time, energy, and resources. This is what I mean by "workload" vs. the FBI's statistics.

Agencies are trusted to report this data to the FBI. There are those that will play with the numbers one way or the other for various reasons. The FBI statistics for the City of Flint's homicide rate last year were found to be undereported; as the city was trying to avoid the stigma of "most violent city per capita in the U.S."

Bottom line is this, if you're an elected official and your Chief or Sheriff is asking for more money (like any municipality has spare cash just laying around:roll:) the FBI Statistics can be a poor indicator of the workload that department is handling. Other stats such as calls answered, arrests made, guns taken off the street, ratio of serious crimes to petty crimes, increases in drug arrests made, and increases in Home Invasions should be considered. Ask the Chief or Sheriff for the statistics personally, he or she will be able to provide you with all that information. If not, keep an eye on them, because something is not right.

Just my perspective after 20 years of police work.

Hope this helps,

[MtGun44]

Interesting, Matt. The Home Invasions thing really grabbed my attention. This is really
bad news. Of course, so it most of the rest of it.

Bill

[OneSkinnyMass]

From my personal experience, 2011 was the worst year of all 58 I've lived. I've lived in Long Beach CA for the last 30 odd years and we had a home invasion robbery little over a month ago. I'm still pack'in in the house and backyard and sleep with a 357 under my pillow. I was caught off guard once, it won't happen again.

[Bret4207]

Statistics all depend on good data. If the data is skewed to start with or manipulated...you know what happens.

[archmaker]

Houston reported a drop in the number of homicides, what I would like to know . . .

Is the number of reported homicides PLUS the number of valid shootings in self-defense equals the average number of homicide from the past three years.

IE. if 2008 = 100, 2009 = 102, 2010=98, then the average would be 100, and if the 2011 figure was 90 but there was 10 self defense shootings . . . .

Then the only logical and to me sounds sane outcome is that the criminals have not decided to do it less often, they are just experiencing a greater chance of failure. :)

[Lloyd Smale]

http://news.yahoo.com/fbi-data-shows-spike-firearm-purchases-2011-045125172.html could be why!!

[Moonman]

NOT really baffling, IT'S AN ELECTION YEAR.

Politicos are PENCIL WHIPPING the books.

[KCSO]

Crime rate statistics are bunk! Aside from human manipulation the crime rate fluctuates naturally and is not very predictable. It is worthless in a low poopulation area as only one or two murders can DOUBLE the so called crime rate. Then you have the supervisors who juggle the books to make their stats look better..eg...

Joe blow gets slugged at the street corner and his wallet taken. The Officer investigates and files a report of assault and robery with the use of a weapon. The supervisor looks at that and thinks it's going to up his crime stats so he enters it as simple theft of XX dollars and sends the report back to the officer for ammendment. And then we get to plea bargain. Joe's attacker gets caught and Joe is shaky on ID of the perp so the City Attorney drops the charges from Theft to Criminal mischief so S. Baggs will plead guilty. So now the stats show a misdemeanor in disposition.

If you want a true piicture of crime you need to loook at stats over a period of years and look with a jaundiced eye. I can't see that there has been any drop in crime in the past 20 years. In fact due to more reporting and the addition of social service crimes overall crime is up.

[wv109323]

If you ponder this ,when is the last time you heard the crime rate went up. If the crime rate has gone down for as many years as I remember being reported, then police departments would be getting smaller all the time.
Besides remember Obummer threaten a few months back than women would be raped if his budget was not approved and the number of police officers increased.
I think the lower crime rate story is put out by the government to make us "feel good".
I have always lived by the notion that there are three types of lies: little white lies, dirty black lies and statistics.

[TCLouis]

Was it Mark Twain that said
Figures don't lie,
Liars figure

Numbers seem to change lots of time due to the whims of needed outcome.

I would like to believe that folks concern that the next robbery, break-in, carjacking might be the last action in their short punk life and that has helped.

[looseprojectile]

And it has been proven again that the FBI is not to be looked to as being EXPERTS on anything. ATFE is in the same category. [Any goobermint agency?]The comments here could be taken as expert testimony to what the real facts are.
I wouldn't be a city cop for twice what they get paid.
I would like to be an FBI agent for a while. Maybe I could get an idea of what they really do.
Looks like your retirement pay is in jepoardy if you worked for city police departments and some States also. No money in the retirement system.

Crime is up. Punishment is down. 'Convictions' is probably where they get their figures.


Life is good

[Bullet Caster]

:kidding:Dutch4221,
You stated in your first post on this thread that you'd been on 3 bank robbries in the last 4 weeks. You mean that they ain't caught you yet?:kidding: I think you must be a police officer. I just thought that was funny. Don't mind me. BC

[Dutch4122]

:kidding:Dutch4221,
You stated in your first post on this thread that you'd been on 3 bank robbries in the last 4 weeks. You mean that they ain't caught you yet?:kidding: I think you must be a police officer. I just thought that was funny. Don't mind me. BC

Just re-read the post & you are right. I worded that one kinda funny for sure!:bigsmyl2: