More obsolete case sizes in our future

[HWooldridge]

Everybody is aware of the overall ammo and brass shortages - it's nothing new. However, I'm starting to be concerned we will effectively be forced away from cartridges that were very common just a few short years ago. I'm talking about 30-30 and 30-40 Krag or even worse, 32-20, 38-40, 44-40, etc.

For example, I've loaded 30-30 for a long time and never had any issues obtaining brass - I'd buy a bag of 100 and those would last several years. My sons shoot 30-30 quite a bit and they lose a few cases here and there, with natural attrition doing the rest - but it was never a big deal to get another bag.

Now we are at a point where nobody is producing some of these sizes so of course, the old supply and demand rules kick in. I was surfing GunBroker the other day and saw 32-20 empties asking $4 each! There were no bids but I expect we may not be too far from that being the new norm.

Of course, the same shortage happened with domestic black powder (and we are hoping Goex will start back up soon), but the driver for that effort is military use - not market pressure. Cowboy action shooting revived a lot of the oldies but even that continuing hobby doesn't seem to be providing enough push for the manufacturers to run more. I'm sitting here wondering what calibers are consuming all of the demand and whether we have a snowball's chance of getting anyone to run a wider variety of sizes? I have a good supply of everything but that won't be the case ten years from now. It could be that my sons will inherit a bunch of pretty paperweights that can't be shot because no ammo is available...

[Harter66]

32 Rem was last run in a production run of loaded ammo in 1964 by of all makers Winchester. Of late several makers have offered 30 Rem recently. As long as there is a sister/cousin cartridge and even a a demand of 15-20,000 pieces every couple of years it will continue to be made .

I doubt very much that 30-30 is in any danger of going away with 473 million 94 Winchesters to feed . 30-40 maybe but as long as there is a cumulative demand for 30-40, 303 , 9.3×64 , and 410 brass cases it's not likely to go completely away .

[deces]

Funny that you should mention 32rem, I have been reading about people swaging it into cases for the 5.45mm

[fc60]

Greetings,

Time to visit the local Goon Show. Yes, it like going on a Treasure Hunt these days; but, you might just find some "Treasure".

At least you will be able to negotiate face to face.

Cheers,

Dave

[Kai]

This was very foreseeable prior to the first shortage many years ago and it is sad. Those of us savvy enough to see the writing on the wall took steps to ensure that components we would need in the future were acquired before they disappeared, became obsolete, or became unobtainable due to cost. We were called hoarders. Knowing things would only going to get worse I called it "I want to keep reloading/shooting and I want my kids to be able to do the same". No shortage of 30/32wcf nor 38/44-40 here!!

[Kai]

Greetings,

Time to visit the local Goon Show. Yes, it like going on a Treasure Hunt these days; but, you might just find some "Treasure".

At least you will be able to negotiate face to face.

Cheers,

Dave

Have you tried recently to negotiate with someone selling at a gunshow? There is no negotiating like the old days. Prices are nuts and the sellers know that someone will come along and pay the price.

[HWooldridge]

This was very foreseeable prior to the first shortage many years ago and it is sad. Those of us savvy enough to see the writing on the wall took steps to ensure that components we would need in the future were acquired before they disappeared, became obsolete, or became unobtainable due to cost. We were called hoarders. Knowing things would only going to get worse I called it "I want to keep reloading/shooting and I want my kids to be able to do the same". No shortage of 30/32wcf nor 38/44-40 here!!

I don’t have a shortage right now either, but might be a different story 10, 15 or 20 years from now.

[Kai]

I don’t have a shortage right now either, but might be a different story 10, 15 or 20 years from now.

Only primers will be the issue.

[Tall]

Starline says they are going to make 32 WCF brass in the near future once they get caught up on brass that is more in demand. 38 WCF I don't know - might be a good idea to stock up if that's a caliber you use often. 44 WCF and 30 WCF I think I already own a lifetime supply. 30-40 Krag I don't own a rifle that uses it so it's a don't care.

[Winger Ed.]

Now we are at a point where nobody is producing some of these sizes so of course, the old supply and demand rules kick in. ..

If a company doesn't sell enough of something to be profitable-- they won't manufacture them either.

If they make a run of some obsolete cartridge, and it takes a few years to sell them,,,,, why bother?

[HWooldridge]

If a company doesn't sell enough of something to be profitable-- they won't manufacture them either.

If they make a run of some obsolete cartridge, and it takes a few years to sell them,,,,, why bother?

That makes sense with something like the 33 Winchester or 40-82, but there are a lot of people shooting 32-20 and 44-40. I read comments regularly that cowboy action shooters would use 32-20 as a historical cartridge but they can’t get ammo, so they fall back to 38 Special.

What I don’t understand is why Starline apparently has plenty of 5 in 1 brass in stock but nobody can backorder 44-40 or 38-40. It’s the same basic thing, aside from longer length and larger primer hole in the blanks.

[dtknowles]

If a company doesn't sell enough of something to be profitable-- they won't manufacture them either.

If they make a run of some obsolete cartridge, and it takes a few years to sell them,,,,, why bother?

Actually, that paradigm has shifted. Very little expansion of manufacturing capacity is happening so production lines are focusing on the most profitable items. They can make a profit off the less common stuff, but they make bigger profit of the stuff in the highest demand. Like others have said, they might start making the less common stuff but only after they fill all the orders they have for the everyday stuff.

[dtknowles]

That makes sense with something like the 33 Winchester or 40-82, but there are a lot of people shooting 32-20 and 44-40. I read comments regularly that cowboy action shooters would use 32-20 as a historical cartridge but they can’t get ammo, so they fall back to 38 Special.

What I don’t understand is why Starline apparently has plenty of 5 in 1 brass in stock but nobody can backorder 44-40 or 38-40. It’s the same basic thing, aside from longer length and larger primer hole in the blanks.

I wonder maybe the 5 in 1 is new old stock, dusty stuff that was sitting on the shelf for a long time.

Tim

[Winger Ed.]

What I don’t understand is why Starline apparently has plenty of 5 in 1 brass in stock but nobody can backorder 44-40 or 38-40. It’s the same basic thing, aside from longer length and larger primer hole in the blanks.

When they go to the time and expense of setting up a production run, it might have to be for thousands of pounds of a given item.
If they don't discontinue something of little demand, it just has to get in line behind more profitable things.

Being the 'same basic thing' is sort of like when someone tells you, "All ya gotta do........".
It's never easy, quick, or simple.

[michael.birdsley]

the 30-30 was king in michigan untill the .450 and .350 took over. i had this same discussion last year on a different forum. It has been basically non-existent since the summer of 2020 but, i’m starting to see a lot of full racks of 30-30 ammo again. price isn’t to bad either $22-$24 a box depending on where you go.


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[HWooldridge]

When they go to the time and expense of setting up a production run, it might have to be for thousands of pounds of a given item.
If they don't discontinue something of little demand, it just has to get in line behind more profitable things.

Being the 'same basic thing' is sort of like when someone tells you, "All ya gotta do........".
It's never easy, quick, or simple.

Yeah, I’ve worked in manufacturing management for the last 40 years so I understand setups. Still a mystery…

[Tall]

I wonder maybe the 5 in 1 is new old stock, dusty stuff that was sitting on the shelf for a long time.

Tim

Exactly right. Starline tools up and makes X quantity. That's why they have other obscure hard to find calibers in stock. They simply have not sold the last production run yet.

[deces]

I have wondered this for years about Starline, is it likely that Starline makes brass for other companies?

[Winger Ed.]

I have wondered this for years about Starline, is it likely that Starline makes brass for other companies?

Good question.

A look at their factory and employee parking lot on Google Earth might give an idea about how big their production capacity is.

[Teddy (punchie)]

Get what you can when you can. If I see a deal think about it. Then call buddies and see if they are interested. As time goes on I seem to be the only one looking ahead, I guess I grew up that way. I was not poor but had to make due with what I did get.