With No Ammo and No Reloading Supplies Available, Just How Smug Are You?

[dverna]

Hey Don which PCP did you get? I've been researching air rifles a bit myself.

Got the Daystate Regal Huntsman. Have not shot it yet, but reviews are good. Mine is in .22

Will be mostly used for plinking and target shooting to 50 yards, but will play a bit at 100 yards to see how it performs. Will also be used for squirrels and vermin. I hope to start a thread on it once the weather improves.

[Soundguy]

Yesterday,LGS has berry's plated in 9mm/115/124/147: 380/100:38/357 in 125/158: .40 in 155/180:45 in 230rs/230hp. no limit.

No primers or powder though.

Surprised to even see bullets..

[Mal Paso]

Last time I went to the range, the gate was closed, no explanation on the website. My unloading has been severely hampered this last year. Finished ammo sits on the reloading room floor, waiting.

With the help of members here I picked out a RSW48 22 Air Rifle. I had been hearing good things about air rifles but had no idea how good they can be. Got my own range right here. LOL

[SeabeeMan]

The way I figure, even if I never laid my hands on another new component, I could feed my family for the rest of my life and teach my kids to shoot without really ever having to ration. I'm even set on 22LR as long as we don't shoot more than 1000 a year, or so.

Even with that, I'll most likely have stuff that somebody will have to sort through some day. Best part is, I'm 38! There's a few molds I'd like to add and should this hysteria ever pass, I'll be padding my stash even more, but I'm good if it doesn't.

[MarkW]

OK, didn't read the entire thread but I think the issue is that most people are set for at least a year but like the last time, nobody knows how long the "drought" is going to last. I'm of the opinion that we are just seeing the end result of a record amount of guns being sold last year and a substantial amount of first time buyers in that group who each bought several boxes of ammo at the same time. However, I may be wrong which is why there's all the uncertainty right now.

[USSR]

It was a perfect storm. A pandemic, rioting and looting, a national election, and a national election that turned over all branches of the government to a party known to be unfriendly to firearms ownership. A painful lesson for those of you who did not prepare. A classic case of The Ant and the Grasshopper fable.

Don

[green mountain boy]

I am in much the same boat as many of you, short in areas i wish i was not, fat in some areas yet over stocked in several as well. i have 9 five gallon pails of wheel weights waiting to be melted into ingots (or fishing weights) . and i hope that most of us also are thinking of our pantry supplies, if you were not perhaps some effort in that area would pay us dividends (lead and gunpowder taste nasty) it just might be a great time to think outside the box since my crystal ball is somewhat cloudy....and none of us KNOW what lies beyond the horizon .

[brewer12345]

I decided my alternative to centerfire would be black powder shooting if this turns into a really long term thing. I think I just about managed to squeak under the wire before that market went dry as well. Should be set for a while and am actually looking forward to the spring and summer shooting season now that hunting season is over.

[dverna]

The way I figure, even if I never laid my hands on another new component, I could feed my family for the rest of my life and teach my kids to shoot without really ever having to ration. I'm even set on 22LR as long as we don't shoot more than 1000 a year, or so.

Even with that, I'll most likely have stuff that somebody will have to sort through some day. Best part is, I'm 38! There's a few molds I'd like to add and should this hysteria ever pass, I'll be padding my stash even more, but I'm good if it doesn't.

You are a wise young man. I did not start "inventorying" (trying to be PC....LOL) until I was about 50. I was fortunate that I had no debt and a good job. When I found sales I bought in bulk....50k cast bullets on one order (was too busy to spend time casting), 50k primers per order, cases of ammunition, and cases of powder etc. It does not take many sales to get stocked up.

During previous shortages I sold stuff and reinvested in more stuff when prices came back down. Doing the same this time. At this point, the components/ammo I have left are essentially "free". I stopped shooting competitively a few years ago so I use far less stuff than I used to. I can shoot about 8-10 years with what I have left and it will last a lifetime if things get really bad. One "advantage" of being 70 YO.

Stay with your plan. Learn from history, and think about being prepared to "help" the grasshoppers during the next shortage. You can make a bit of money with no downside risk if you buy when times are good. Fortunately, most people are married, and many wives would rather spend $3k for a vacation instead of buying 120k primers. Those primers now are worth over $12,000.

BTW, being single I did not have to deal with that issue much. I did what I wanted. Get your wife on board. My fiancé has already "approved" restocking after seeing what is happening now. Fortunately for me she enjoys shooting. and is smart enough to see the upside of being prepared.

[lightman]

Smug is not the word that I would use. I have seen how quickly a guy can be humbled. But, I shot as much as I wanted to last year and can do the same this year. I gifted ammo, primers, powder, AR mags and toilet paper to a few guys last year and may do the same this year. Selectively of course. I got caught in a shortage years ago, maybe during the Clinton years, but I don't really remember. History truly does repeat itself and I learn from that one.

[bluebird66]

I'm okay but I would feel better with a few thousand more primers.

[RKJ]

I wish I had a few more primers (SPP) but I'm okay.

[zarrinvz24]

I fear I am more smug than I should be.

The OP doesn't specifically address being Generous to those who are not stocked up or who want to be stocked up or who just want to buy tooling and equipment...But I guess indirectly, the word smug does.

I very much appreciate that the members here are willing to sell things without using the crazy eBay prices as a comparable sale for setting prices. Good honest people are hard to come by these days.

[Hogtamer]

Don’t be caught without water and food preps. Guns and ammo only go so far.

[monadnock#5]

There was one internet reader of tea leaves who opined that, on our current glide path, it will be 4 to 6 years for a return to "normalcy". Of course there's no consideration given to possible disruptions in the market in the meantime.

Way too early in the game for smugness. Puts me in mind of the chorus from The Gambler by Kenny Rogers.

[imashooter2]

I have a little over a box (50 rounds) of 9mm and a hundred small pistol primers. So I can laugh at the shortage. This will last me the rest of my life.

My prayers that the doctors are wrong and you’ll live more than a half an hour.

[RogerDat]

I bought steadily what I could afford. I can't be the only one that recalls the run during Y2K or after the Clinton Assault Weapons Bill? Sandy Hook was really bad for shortages as it had Presidential election which tends to draw down supplies a bit, Obama won which helped encourage adding some "extra" then a major incident that had Congress talking about introducing legislation and many states enacting restrictions. Nothing gets the masses of gun owner more inclined to add something to the pantry like legislation restricting firearms.

There are two forms of shortage. Situational as in Y2K or the pandemic. People start worrying about social upheaval and that causes some panic buying. We were out of guns and ammo well before election or Democratic gains. Pandemic alone caused two local gun shops I know of to sell out. I think pandemic type stuff tends to be harder on reloading supplies. When people think end of civilization it makes the idea of reloading their own seem more attractive. You can hardly find black powder firearms. I guess much of the country thinks they will need to defend hearth and home with a Kentucky rifle or cap & ball pistol. When the driving force is some sort of regulation it also drives stockpile additions but I think that is as much a case of buying a gun and then buying a bunch of ammo for it. Enough people do it and there are shortages in popular calibers. Doesn't hit reloading as hard I don't think.

Pandemic had $22 Lee 2 cavity 9mm molds SELLING on eBay for over $150 which is a panic purchase. If you cast and have a 9mm you probably have a mold, or know where you can borrow one. If you just managed to find a 9mm and can't find ammo and are certain your life is in danger due to the pandemic or BLM or something then you will pay a buck and a quarter a round or $150 for a $22 mold.

I'm not exactly smug. I'm ok with where I'm at. I would in a really long term shortage adjust my habits to make available supplies last longer. Darn sure can't replace them right now at today's prices. I would also add that selling into today's market puts some cash in the gun safe for replacement components which I assume will become available eventually. With stuff unavailable and when the supply situation will change being so uncertain it takes a fair amount of cash to make me not miss a box of 1000 primers. Or a pack of 300 rounds of 5.56 ammo. Less than gun broker prices but certainly not letting it go for what I paid for it. If a friend needed something that is different than stopping at LGS or a gun show to see if someone will pay me enough that I don't miss the item being available. Gun broker is priced like Cheaper than Dirt to insure that the most desperate buyer with the most money will buy the item. It is the one real strength of capitalism. The ability to put desired products and services into the hands of people who have the money to pay for them. eBay and Gun Broker are simply filtering out the buyers who lack a strong desire and a good amount of money by having high prices.

Am I smug? No satisfied that I don't have any reason to be concerned. Slightly annoyed that some items I wish to purchase will have to wait until things settle back down. More than a little amazed that this can keep happening repeatedly for decades and some people still get caught by surprise. That others seem to think this time is going to be different before it happens or has a different cause other than situational panic or government changes. Both of which are sure to come up again.

I am certainly going to set aside as much of my covid-19 checks to put the finishing touches on my inventory once I see a return to normal. Heck I may find some deals as people with no clue decide the world won't end and they can sell whatever it is they bought for defense in anticipation of anarchy and madness sweeping the nation. Pretty sure there are at least a few women who now own a .40 S&W that will rock their world if they ever try and shoot the thing. Even a few men I expect that will find it a useless item that they don't enjoy and can't really use at any distance where a knife wouldn't be more appropriate weapon choice.

Nope can't really be smug just for not being an idiot and having paid attention over a moderate number of years of living so as to have some clue about the world around me.

[44Blam]

When things started looking lean, I picked up a few kegs of some powders I don't normally use. One was Herco, then AA11fs, Norma 200 and Alliant 2400.
Turns out, Herco is just a little slower than Unique and is REALLY useful. 2400 is a go to in a lot of applications and Norma 200 gives me a really consistent 350 legend load.
I thought, hmm, what is still available... I was amazed that EVERY powder is out of stock. Even the oddball ones!
I've got 100 or so slugs loaded, so I think I'll stop dropping 30 grain of Herco in the shotshells and maybe make some lower velocity handgun rounds...

[44Blam]

I have a little over a box (50 rounds) of 9mm and a hundred small pistol primers. So I can laugh at the shortage. This will last me the rest of my life.

Damn, Traffer... Are you on death's door?

[RogerDat]

on the return to normalcy. I saw gun show ammo dipping below a buck a round. Some was still that high but much of it was going for a little less than that. I see the 9mm Lee molds that were over $150 for sold price have buy it now in the $50 range. I saw a lot of old primers, like almost antique packaging that were for sale at almost "normal" prices and no one offered me over $100 for a brick of SPP I had for sale at the show. For the record that wasn't enough to make me let them go. Would be happy to add $150 to the stash in place of those primers, might even be ok replacing the primers with $125 but not for $100, would rather have the primers than the C-note.

There was a severe case of supply not meeting demand after Sandy Hook in 2012 by the time the Pulse nightclub shooting took place in 2016 one could generally get at least primers and 1 pound bottles of powder to cover most any need. Maybe not any powder but a suitable powder. Ordering online was a hassle for a good portion of that 4 years due to not being generally able to find larger 8 pound jugs reliably in stock (more profit in 1 lb. bottles) and not finding one store with the multiple different powders one wanted to order in one go to save on hazmat and shipping. I bought plenty of powder. When Pulse came on the news I was finally ordering two 8 lb. jugs of rifle powder including Varget. When I saw the news I added some 1 pound bottles of 2400, Blue Dot and more primers as I recall. Told wife it was an early birthday present.

Prices didn't really spike, availability went down a little as I recall. But I think by then everyone was so stocked up from supplies returning after the post Sandy Hook shortage and there just wasn't much need to buy more even if one was worried. So we have had the pandemic for a full year. Things are sort of calming down from extreme high prices. I think it may well take until end of 2021 for products to be at least somewhat available at "regular" prices in retail outlets we normally shop at. Maybe not able to order everything we want in one go but will be able to get some SPP primers here and maybe a different brand of LRP at same time. Add a few pounds of desired powder but won't find all the items we want in one stop and will have to shop around and maybe eat an extra hazmat shipping fee due to having to shop at multiple retailers to get what we need.

By sometime in 2022 I think things will settle down but... that somewhat depends on either some crazy butt munch going on a shooting spree triggering a catalyst for passing more regulations. That could easily push demand up again. But not for long. If the supply exists by then we will all be stocked to the gills, if the supply is still short no one will be really able to panic buy. I guess I'm saying by one year after the pandemic gets resolved barring some incidents we should be in ok shape as far as supply goes.

Don't forget both the house and senate are very close. Seats held by Democrats in more conservative areas really can't win reelection with any gun regulations that are too extreme. The margin of majority is very small meaning stuff won't get passed if it looks like it will cost the Democrats the majority. Unfortunately I fear there are restrictions that have enough popular support that some regulations will get passed. Not sure when or how they will impact the market for firearms or ammo or reloading components. I suspect less than one might think for at least some possible changes. Buying another AR and 100 round of ammo isn't an especially effective response for increased background checks. So potentially not much impact to the market. Although one never knows. Congress introduces a bill and people do get concerned with good reason.