Ammunition Shortage

[Lloyd Smale]

Having been deeply involved in engineering automation for the auto industry, it pains me to see that the primer making process is still done by hand. This is a prime candidate for robots with vision systems if nothing else.

mechanics take electricity. Rotating parts moving creates static electricity. One mistake and you could blow the whole place up. Probably no room for an error in programming or a computer crashing. Im so far from a computer expert that truth be told my opinion means nothing but if it could be done safely it would have by now.

[Garyshome]

but now we’re gonna SCREWED by being FORCED to try something new by Xibiden

[Wayne Smith]

Good article in the current Rifleman about the ammo problems. Good news is that there are a couple new factories coming on line, a big one is that the Remington factory is now up and running again after being quiet for over a year. That's simply getting an existing facility up and running, not building new,

[Tripplebeards]

You guys realize this is cyclical and gets worse everytime right? Trust me... its industry wide. The bug guys are cranking out at max capacity. The average Joe is panic buying and the middle man is getting rich. In 2-3 years, they'll be giving stuff away again. We did this in 2015. I work first hand with the ammo industry. I deal with this daily. I promise you, no one is holding back, and the only price gauging is taking place at a local store near you.

Exactly
, stop buying and the price will go down. The cheapest I have ever seen AR prices and parts prices were after the last panic buy was over and suppliers were trying to get rid of their hoarded inventory that they thought was going to make them rich.

[Randy Bohannon]

4.1 million gun sales in one month has a significant impact on each gun with low estimate of two boxes of ammo = Shortage . That’s one month of gun sales in January vast majority of those guns are 9mm if your not set up to load anything you have paper weights in the very near future.
The Great Reset is in effect it is never going back to what you were used to,Gov. is poised to print $6T ,assault on finance companies that do anything gun related are being ramped up.Many untoward events are in the mix,keep your head and your supplies ,don’t sell anything.

[Ed K]

For those looking for the makers to invest in more capacity, would it even be wise to make capital expenditures in the face of an administration that could possibly be looking to squash the very activity that makes this forum thrive?

[Rcmaveric]

OK another Cycle of higher ammo costs? So how long have WE been reloading? Why was it that a slew of members are complaining of A lack of components? Why weren't the components purchased when readily available? Wasn't most or all of this stuff available in 2019 for reasonable costs? What were members spending their $$$$$$ on when they could have been purchasing primers/Powder/brass/boolitz?

Anyone have a reply? I don't want to hear it because I purchased stuff when it was available

Child support and rent. I pay more in childsupport than some make a month. I will be free of that soon enough. First one turns 18 in August

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

[dverna]

OK another Cycle of higher ammo costs? So how long have WE been reloading? Why was it that a slew of members are complaining of A lack of components? Why weren't the components purchased when readily available? Wasn't most or all of this stuff available in 2019 for reasonable costs? What were members spending their $$$$$$ on when they could have been purchasing primers/Powder/brass/boolitz?

Anyone have a reply? I don't want to hear it because I purchased stuff when it was available

My impression is that most of the longer term members on this site are not complaining much. Those that ar,e are either too poor to stock up or too stupid. I feel sorry for those who cannot stock up due to financial issues but hopefully they have been wise enough to conserve for hunting and self-defense. Seems newer reloaders/casters are the most vocal and that makes sense. They have been driven to reload/cast due to shortages/prices and find themselves way behind the curve. The smart ones will learn and stock up once things get to normal.

It is easy to be judgmental wrt to those who did not prepare, and I am guilty of that trait. I have helped out a handful of people. One member here but the others are people I know. I have also turned down requests from people who should have known better but did nothing. Sucks to be stupid. One of the stupid ones brags about being worth $2 million...he does not need my help.

[snowwolfe]

I do feel for some folks. Not everyone has the financial ability to buy components every time they see them on sale. For one shooter it could be a serious stretch to buy a brick of primers and 2 pounds of powder at the old prices. Thats at least $100.
Others could buy a couple of 8 pound jugs and 10 bricks and not break a sweat.
We all have different budgets.

[MUSTANG]

For those looking for the makers to invest in more capacity, would it even be wise to make capital expenditures in the face of an administration that could possibly be looking to squash the very activity that makes this forum thrive?

I view this differently. Historically; those businesses and individuals that usually prosper make investments when times are bad. Yes; the volume of ammunition produced and shot may/will go down as the market becomes saturated. This saturation may occur because there is no more closet space for storage of those buying and holding for bad times; or the hoarders, or the ..... The saturation may also diminish because
the volume of "New Shooters/Gun Buyers" slows, becomes stable, or diminishes. There is a probability that the needed "New Ammo Production" capacity will need to be higher to meet annual demands - that is an indicator for need of new plant capacity if you are in business for the long haul and not driven by short term strategies.

There is one area we as Shooters, Constitutional Conservatives, and those of self interest need to engage our CONGRESS CRITTERS. If our current facility capacity is running 24/7/352 - Then how the heck can we meet the needs for defending our nation in even a SMALL Shooting War? In the last couple of Ammo/Component shortages we saw many (including a couple of politicians) stating the Ammo was going to LEO's and the military; so there was not enough for the civilian market demands. This is a Canary in the Coal Mine indicator.

Since the WWI and WWII days; the Leaders of the Nation recognized that there was a need for Industry to have "Excess Capacity" and for the Nation to have large Stockpiles of critical raw materials and logistical supplies. All of the "Surplus" Ammo many of our more seasoned members were shooting for much of their lives came from aged and disposed of long term Ammunition supplies (allthough still viable for sporting purposes). Since the days of the Kennedy Wiz Kid administration we have slowly migrated away from these National Policies of "Excess Capacity (or more appropriately referred to as Wartime Contngency reserve Capacity) to JIT (Just in Time) production. Ammo has followed the same PROBLEM that is prevalent from the Wohoo Virus (Covid-19) pandemic; that being the US production is "Outsourced", Manufacturing no longer has "Surge Capacity", and JIT is proven not to be Just in Time if there are any hiccups.

We the People should be demanding our Congress Critters intervene and ensure there is "Wartime Surge Capacity" for Ammo and Reloading Components, and they return to the same concepts for Strategic Materials. Our largest and most insidious long term enemy threat currently is Communist China - and they recognize these areas I am addressing; buying and warehousing more than their current needs for China - so that if they need it they have it.

[reddog81]

I’m pretty sure the military is sitting on enough ammo to last a long time. Asking for Congress to determine how much ammo to make seems like a huge mistake to me.

The amount of 9mm ammo expended during wartime on any given day is probably a fraction of what is shot domestically.

[rbuck351]

I differ only slightly from Mustang. I believe our biggest threat is not China but the commies in our own govt. I believe Trump was doing fine against China. I believe Biden is the puppet and I'm not sure whether China or Soros is the puppet master.

As far as the shortage goes, there are those that don't have much if any discretionary money. I was there until my three kids were out of the house. However, even when the kids were young and I was twisting wrenches for a living, I did jobs after hours in trade for guns or cash. Most of the cash went to feed and house the family but occasionally a lb of powder or a couple boxes of 100 primers could be bought. I started reloading when I was 14 so I had the needed equipment before getting married. Also the kids didn't get a lot of the things that some of their friends did unless they got a job and could pay for it. My wife quit work to raise the kids when they came along as we both thought her being home for the kids was more important than buying them stuff they really didn't need. They all grew up to be independent hard workers. I am well aware of what digging through the couch or the car seats for nickles and dimes to get the kids cereal or milk is all about.

Now the price of all gun related stuff has gone through the roof for the ? time in my life, I am prepared. Now I can more afford $250 for 1000 primers than in times past I could afford $10 for 1000.

There are very few that could not afford to buy a box of ammo for their hunting rifle or their home defense weapon a few months ago. How much ammo do you really need for either? For those that didn't buy a box or two and instead bought a smart phone, I'm sorry you thought the phone was so important. I still use a flip phone but I have ammo. My new car is a 2001 Chevy Cavalier but I have ammo. It's too bad the Ant and the Grasshopper fable is racist and isn't taught in school any more. Maybe if they swapped the ant for the grasshopper it wouldn't be racist any more but then it wouldn't make sense either.

The Darwin award is always available for those that don't prepare. This probably sounds a bit cruel but I scrimped and saved my entire life and I'm not going to apologize for being prepared.

[rbuck351]

The military doesn't sit on ammo for a long time. They think it only lasts a couple of years and then needs to be replaced so they destroy it. Wouldn't want it to fall into the wrong hands even though it's to old to work.

[MUSTANG]

I’m pretty sure the military is sitting on enough ammo to last a long time. Asking for Congress to determine how much ammo to make seems like a huge mistake to me.

The amount of 9mm ammo expended during wartime on any given day is probably a fraction of what is shot domestically.

Red Dog; I will disagree. The amount of ammunition the military sits on fluctuates with National Policy. The vastly predominant expenditure of military ammunition is not in war - but in training. Initial boot camp and annual "Proficiency Training" is factored in; but in time of crisis these go up dramatically. In case of deployments - redeployment training and deployed "Pre-Conflict" training requires vast mounts of ammunition for training. Although the US military has many many billions of rounds in storage and deployed to forward areas - that ammunition can see significant draw downs in times of crisis. During the 1930's the US military relied on conversion units for many firearms to fire .22LR's as part of the training to allow some low level of "Live Fire Training"; while retaining the "Full Bore" ammo in war stocks. We saw similar efforts in cyclical manners up to today. One would think that at the end/post Vietnam period there would have been vast amounts of Ammunition in the military system; yet I remember in the 1970's when being assigned to guard duty ammo was in short supply so "Guard Duty Training" was dry firing for hours - then 3 rounds of .45, 3 rounds of 12 gauge, and 5 rounds of 5.56.

Traditionally; the Government has not controlled how much is made; rather they pay a fee for additional Plant floor space and machinery to be available when the Government Calls it up. They do not control production rate. My dad worked in a plant that manufactured Tank, Artillery, and Ship barrels. They had floor space and machinery/tooling sitting idle on one end that was paid to be there by Uncle Sugar.

With NO SURGE CAPACITY in industry; the Civilians, LEO's, and Military are at risk.

[contender1]

"And if you are listening to the primer manufactures, they are saying they are doing everything they can to meet demand, practically running 24-7. Well, if they suddenly have a 600% profit margin, why aren’t they reinvesting that into increasing production capacity?
Something ain’t right in this equation... somebody is getting over someplace.
Heck, why aren’t importers cashing in and importing primers, powder and other components from overseas?"

Look closely at this.
Primers, are the one component that is the least available. There are not many actual manufacturing plants in the USA that are capable of making them.
It's NOT easy to build a new plant,, AND the expense needs to be justified,, over the long term. Once the supply catches the demands,, as noted above,, about going from full capacity to lay-offs in a year.

Next,, the cost of the raw materials to make ammo,, has risen so the mfg's have HAD to increase their prices. This of course, gets passed along to consumers. But they are NOT making a 600% profit. That's the secondary market.

Importing components; Think "Tariff's" on all imported goods AND raw materials. Remember,, we no longer have a lead refinery operating in this country. Again,, the expense has risen all over all sections of this market.

And loaded ammo;
The manufacturers have previously signed contracts with the government, and LEO agencies,, that were signed well before the current demands. A legal obligation to fulfill these contracts takes priority over ANY non-contract buyer.

Next,, think of the FACT that US manufacturing has shifted over the last few decades to "lean manufacturing" & NOT warehousing products. Having a warehouse full of a product costs money, and the bean counters listen to the stockholders who want profits,, so they have stopped warehousing as much as they can. They only set themselves up for projected sales for the year, and NOT for any sudden shortages.

There is not a single, one answer, or fix to it all.

It's kinda like a lumberjack with an ax. he can't fell a mighty oak with just one whack, but he can fell it with MANY successive cuts. We, as a Country, have been whacking away at many things to where the mighty oak has fallen or is about to fall.

And the simple answer is MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!

People want to make a profit on their investments, and the consumers want to pay the least amount for any product. Look around,, and many are complaining about the price of primers at $150-$250 per brick. When it was available at $150 per case,, many would only buy a brick, thinking the supply would always be available.
I own some stock, and I WISH I had bought more at the price I paid initially. Over the years,, following the stock,,, I've added a modest amount, as my funds allowed, and I enjoy a quarterly dividend check.
I know not everybody can do as I've done,, and I'll admit I didn't start such important things when I was younger,, because I didn't have the money to do so. Or,, let's say I didn't put forth the EFFORT to do it like I have done in the last 30 years.

With age, comes wisdom, IF we listen to the wise folks before us.

So,, the problem does NOT have an easy solution.

[Ickisrulz]

I do feel for some folks. Not everyone has the financial ability to buy components every time they see them on sale. For one shooter it could be a serious stretch to buy a brick of primers and 2 pounds of powder at the old prices. Thats at least $100.
Others could buy a couple of 8 pound jugs and 10 bricks and not break a sweat.
We all have different budgets.

Shooting is not an inexpensive hobby.

[Rcmaveric]

The military doesn't sit on ammo for a long time. They think it only lasts a couple of years and then needs to be replaced so they destroy it. Wouldn't want it to fall into the wrong hands even though it's to old to work.

We shoot it off. I love when ammo is expiring. We do a mass gun requal day. What doesn't get used, make friends with the GM so you can shoot it off after hours with them.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

[MUSTANG]

I note how societal impacts, where one lies in the economic strata, and the choices individuals have/will make has significant play in the discussion. All have an impact, but they are the root causes and require long term strategic action to resolve. I fear that we have few in our local, state and Federal governance who are up to that challenge today. I see the immediacy of the Problem being addressed across this and other threads on this and parallel threads. As an example; my wife has a friend from college that we have maintained close ties to her and her husband who passed away last year. After his death; she came to visit for a month. Her neighbors in Florida had numerous times advocated after her husbands death that she needed to get a hand gun for self protection even though she lives in a nice neighborhood. Their reasoning was that they would look out for her, but they are not always there and if needed she should be able to defend herself in absence of neighbors presence. Any way; we took her to the Range several times during her visit and had her "FamFire" (old USMC slang I couldn't resist - Familiarization Firing of a Firearm). She got to shoot single action Ruger revolvers, Double action S&W revolvers of various calibers and barrel lengths, and the old tried and true 1911 as well as a Beretta and a couple of other Wonder 9's. She decided she liked the S&W 38/357 revolvers with 2"-3" barrels best. After returning the Jacksonville Florida; she went and got some training and got her Concealed Carry permit; ordered an S&W Air Weight revolver and waited 5 months until she got it. Earlier this February she was talking to my wife and mentioned that she wanted to practice some - BUT that at $80.00 a box of 20 at the Gun Range she was hesitant to go shooting more than once every 6 months to a year. Well, Mustang stepped in - went out the the Reloading shed and dug around until 500 rounds of Range 38 Special could be assimilated, then digging to find 148Gr Wadcutters and 158 Grain SemiWadcutters to load. Loaded 500 rounds - reboxed them into .38 Special Boxes scrounged from the Trash Cans at the Range over the last few years; located a heavy duty box of appropriate size - then off to her via UPS. shipping. She can now go every couple of weeks and shoot a few rounds to establish and maintain a comfort level with her new revolver.

Thrust of the story is that we have two problems. We need to find ways to resolve the Ammo Shortage - including putting our Conservative elected officials on the hook to fight the shadow wars concerning things that may be affecting our Ammunition Production/Access; but also addressing the immediacy of the problem that surrounds most of us with our friends, neighbors, and family.

[Tripplebeards]

The military doesn't sit on ammo for a long time. They think it only lasts a couple of years and then needs to be replaced so they destroy it. Wouldn't want it to fall into the wrong hands even though it's to old to work.

Police departments do the same thing. My buddies uncle gives them more “expired” ammo then they know what do do with.

All I can say is ammo must not be a profitable business or manufacturers would hire more employees and buy more equipment to increase production.

[MrWolf]

I started digging my old stash of factory ammo. I found boxes of 45's and some 9's from 2013 that I think was my first scare and paid for my entry in the game. I might just recoup my money and then some getting rid of "extra" factery ammo. I always keep some boxes around for when friends or family show up with kids to shoot vs my reloads.