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Thread: Just a little data

  1. #1
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    Just a little data

    The U.S. population is over 328 MILLION people. The U.S.A. is the 3rd most populous nation in the world. (only falling behind India and China).

    No one really knows how many firearms are in private hands in the U.S.A. but one of the more credible research papers put the number at over 393 million guns in 2018. This is still only a best guess. We can look at the number of guns manufactured domestically plus the number of guns imported since 1968. We then add those numbers to what was believed to be in circulation before that, and come up with a baseline. It's not perfect but it's a start.

    http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/filea...ms-Numbers.pdf

    Since 2018, that number has been added to considerably. Manufacturing and importation alone is in the millions for the years after that study.
    The sales of new guns in 2020 broke ALL records.

    So when people start talking about bizarre conspiracy theories concerning ammunition and component shortages, take a moment to think about how big the numbers: 328 Million and 393 Million really are.

  2. #2
    Boolit Master
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    If everyone that thought they didn't have enough ammo for the long haul went out and bought a couple of boxes for those 400 million or so guns, it doesn't surprise me there is a ammo and component shortage.

    Bidumb has surpassed Obummer by a good margin as being the worlds top gun and ammo salesman. The puppet master has spoken and Bidumb is marching to his orders.

  3. #3
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    Those numbers are LOW. We've been told for 30 years there's over 300 million firearms in the US, they are correct, but the number is much higher than 300 million.

    I'll hazard a guess and say close to HALF A BILLION firearms in the US.
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  4. #4
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    You'll get no argument from me that the estimate of 393 Million guns in the U.S., in 2018 may have been a little on the low side.

    As for the current estimate, I doubt that it is a a half a billion (500 million) but I don't think a figure in the low 400's would be too far off.

  5. #5
    Boolit Master

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    Consider (strictly academic):

    1.) 50% of the population (164M) have a gun: 164 million guns in the U.S.
    2.) 5% of Conservatives (8.2M) have 10 guns: 82 million additional guns
    3.) 0.5% of Conservatives (820T) have 50 guns: 41 million additional guns
    4.) 0.05% of Conservatives (82T) have 200 guns: 16.4 million additional guns
    5.) 0.005% of Conservatives (8.2T) have 500 guns: 4.1M additional guns
    6.) 0.0005% of Conservatives (820) have 1000 guns: 0.820M additional guns
    7.) Guns in Museums not considered: 0.0M additional guns
    8.) 1 in 1,000 for Liberal gun owners in categories 2 thru 6 : 0.144M additional guns

    Conclude that (academically and conservatively) there are OVER 308.5 Million guns in the hands of the We The People.
    If it was easy, anybody could do it.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Land Owner View Post
    Consider (strictly academic):

    1.) 50% of the population (164M) have a gun: 164 million guns in the U.S.
    2.) 5% of Conservatives (8.2M) have 10 guns: 82 million additional guns
    3.) 0.5% of Conservatives (820T) have 50 guns: 41 million additional guns
    4.) 0.05% of Conservatives (82T) have 200 guns: 16.4 million additional guns
    5.) 0.005% of Conservatives (8.2T) have 500 guns: 4.1M additional guns
    6.) 0.0005% of Conservatives (820) have 1000 guns: 0.820M additional guns
    7.) Guns in Museums not considered: 0.0M additional guns
    8.) 1 in 1,000 for Liberal gun owners in categories 2 thru 6 : 0.144M additional guns

    Conclude that (academically and conservatively) there are OVER 308.5 Million guns in the hands of the We The People.
    Ya failed basic math.

    You're not removing the initial values from your equation.

    IE: 1.) would be an additional 73 million guns since you already counted their first gun. It gets worse with each point you attempt to make.
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  7. #7
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    I am getting the impression the wall is going to get built ... but not on the USA/Mexico Border .
    The troops haven't left and the FBI warns of a "Credible Threat" of attack ... the troops will remain .
    Too many guns and too much ammo out there for them to feel safe ?
    Gary
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    Proud Member of The Basket of Deplorables
    " Let's Go Brandon !"

  8. #8
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    Let's keep this on track.

    There are a LOT of guns in America. Probably in excess of 393 MILLION guns.

    There are a LOT of people in America. Clearly in excess of 328 MILLION people (the 3rd most populous nation on the planet).

    The demand for loaded ammunition, components, firearms is correspondingly high.

    There's no need for bizarre conspiracy theories to explain shortages, the demand has simply outstripped the supply.

    If in late 2019 you told someone that there would be a toilet paper shortage in the spring of 2020, they would have looked at you like you had three heads. But there WAS a toilet paper shortage in 2020. Not because we ran out of trees. Not because the government was buying up all the toilet paper. Not because the paper mills intentionally reduced production for some crazy illogical reason. But because people panicked and purchased EVERY single roll of toilet paper they could find.
    That shortage was caused by consumers and consumers ALONE.

    Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

  9. #9
    Boolit Master

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    Quote Originally Posted by Burnt Fingers View Post
    Ya failed basic math.

    You're not removing the initial values from your equation.

    IE: 1.) would be an additional 73 million guns since you already counted their first gun. It gets worse with each point you attempt to make.
    Your disappointment, in your assertion, is telling.
    Last edited by Land Owner; 02-27-2021 at 06:38 AM.
    If it was easy, anybody could do it.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Land Owner View Post
    Your disappointment, in your assertion, is telling.
    Disappointment in the failure to understand basic math.
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  11. #11
    Boolit Master

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    The number of firearms possessed by members of the public in the USA has more than doubled since 1975
    The homicide rate /100,000 in the USA is apparently dropping correlated to rising median age
    The overall homicide rate in the USA has been dropping since 1975.

    k
    Go now and pour yourself a hot one...

  12. #12
    Boolit Master

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    Quote Originally Posted by Burnt Fingers View Post
    Disappointment in the failure to understand basic math.
    I have to agree....you do NOT understand basic math.
    If it was easy, anybody could do it.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burnt Fingers View Post
    Those numbers are LOW. We've been told for 30 years there's over 300 million firearms in the US, they are correct, but the number is much higher than 300 million.

    I'll hazard a guess and say close to HALF A BILLION firearms in the US.
    Who owns only 1 gun?
    Hit em'hard
    hit em'often

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by white eagle View Post
    Who owns only 1 gun?

    My wife's college friend who ordered an S&W revolver about 6 months ago and received it end of Jan. Lot's of new one gun owners who are concerned about the Large City Riots and it's violence spreading int their neighborhoods (not to mention the low lifespan's invading homes).
    Mustang

    "In the beginning... the patriot is a scarce man, and brave and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot." - Mark Twain.

  15. #15
    Boolit Master


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    Quote Originally Posted by Land Owner View Post
    I have to agree....you do NOT understand basic math.
    Yeah, I understand basic math just fine.


    Let's make it REALLY easy.

    We have three people.

    Joe, Larry and Bob each own one gun
    Bob owns two guns
    Larry owns three guns

    This is the math used in post #5. You're adding up each line.

    Line 1 = 3 guns
    Line 2 = 4 guns
    Line 3 = 3 guns
    Total = 10 guns.

    In reality it's

    Larry owns three guns
    Bob owns two guns
    Joe owns one gun.

    Line 1 = 3 guns
    Line 2 = 2 guns
    Line 3 = 1 gun.

    You can't count something in a subset that's been previously counted in a super set.

    The more subsets you add the further you get from the truth.

    Let's take five people. a, b, c, d, and e.

    a-e own one gun each 5 guns
    b-e own two guns each 8 guns
    c-e own four guns each 12 guns
    d and e each own eight guns each 16 guns
    e owns 16 guns

    You then added each line and come up with 57 guns.

    In reality

    a owns 1
    b owns 2
    c owns 4
    d owns 8
    e owns 16

    Which equals 31 guns.

    The written language and math don't always play nice together.

    Consider (strictly academic):

    1.) 50% of the population (164M) have a gun: 164 million guns in the U.S.
    2.) 5% of Conservatives (8.2M) have 10 guns: 82 million additional guns
    3.) 0.5% of Conservatives (820T) have 50 guns: 41 million additional guns
    4.) 0.05% of Conservatives (82T) have 200 guns: 16.4 million additional guns
    5.) 0.005% of Conservatives (8.2T) have 500 guns: 4.1M additional guns
    6.) 0.0005% of Conservatives (820) have 1000 guns: 0.820M additional guns
    7.) Guns in Museums not considered: 0.0M additional guns
    8.) 1 in 1,000 for Liberal gun owners in categories 2 thru 6 : 0.144M additional guns

    Conclude that (academically and conservatively) there are OVER 308.5 Million guns in the hands of the We The People.


    Let's break this down.

    820 people have 1000 guns 820,000 guns
    8,200-820 = 7,380 people have 500 guns 3,690,000 guns
    82,000-8200 = 73,800 people have 200 guns 14,760,000 guns
    820,000-82,000 = 738,000 people have 50 guns 36,900,000 guns
    8,200,000-820,000 = 7,380,000 have 10 guns 73,800,000 guns
    164,000,000 - 8,200,00 = 155,800,000 have one gun 155,800,000 guns

    Total 285,770,000 guns.

    If you had added additional to each sentence your math would be correct.
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  16. #16
    Boolit Master
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    Now I'm confused , and have a headache . I took off my shoes + got out a piece of paper and a pencil after some figuring I came to the conclusion everyone is just guessing .

  17. #17
    Boolit Master .45Cole's Avatar
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    So if I sign up for this "820T Conservatives" thing I'll get 50 guns? Asking for a friend. Oh, he just asked where the signup is.

  18. #18
    Boolit Master

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    Quote Originally Posted by Burnt Fingers View Post
    Yeah, I understand basic math just fine.
    Give it a rest Mate.
    If it was easy, anybody could do it.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Land Owner View Post
    Give it a rest Mate.
    Why?

    You can't refute the math you used????
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