Primer Shortage?

[Froogal]

Currently the ammo companies can make more money selling ammo than primers so they keep all their primer production for ammunition.

If that is true, then where is that ammo?

[la5676]

If that is true, then where is that ammo?

Google is your friend

https://gunandsurvival.com/2020/11/1...-more-than-1b/

The gist of it is that Vista has a 1Billion dollar backlog for ammunition. They believe it will be a year before they are caught up. If that is true, then reloaders are in for a rough patch, for sure, as powder, primer and projectile capacity wlll be going to factory loaded ammo.

[MUSTANG]

I have a Tap O Cap to make percussion caps out of beer cans. Great idea. Maybe someone will come up with a similar idea to make primers. I know, not likely...
What about repriming primers?
I have a 7mm pinfire revolver and a box of very old ammo. Interesting how the pinfire ammo works.

Battis:

May I suggest you and others look on this Site for threads dealing with "Reloading Primers". A recent thread reports the use of Toy Caps as the Primer charge. See: http://castboolits.gunloads.com/show...y-caps-results

Perhaps the availability of Toy Caps will take a hit; but their production is outside of the Ammo Chain; and the numbers of centerfire reloaders is a very small Fraction of the Shooting Public; so it may be a methodology for many reloads to weather the Primer Shortage if they choose to do so. I ordered numerous rolls of "Toy Caps" on line a few weeks ago after reading this article (Which I think the write up is superb); I ordered more yesterday online. Amazon seems to have DROPPED all Toy Roll Caps from their offerings now - but not the cap guns. As they used to say in Bootcamp and follow on training - a recruit/student never runs out of ammo as long as they can say BANG_BANG_BANG.

[RogerDat]

Seems to me in a way once again we are seeing the downside of just in time delivery model. It is efficient for companies to have only the capacity required to meet demand over time and to keep inventory at levels that just meet current demand.

When we get repeated spikes in demand the limited inventory is gone and the limited capacity that is able to keep up over the long haul can't ramp up to meet sudden high demand. Business is in most cases foolish to invest in equipment that is not fully utilized or materials that sit around as finished inventory. Be like buying a 1 ton truck to haul a 1/2 ton load. However when repeated spikes in demand take place inventory is exhausted, shortages lead to hoarding, or scalper purchases that make it difficult for production to catch up. Throw in even a modest reduction in capacity such as powder valley outlined and you have the 2020 primer shortage.

The inventory can absorb a single run, maybe even two, but there have been at least two or three in a row and they have gone on for months. Not all that different than the great powder shortage. Obama election, followed by Sandy Hook, followed by Congress considering gun regulation. Toss in ADI Powder that supplies much of the powder sold under US company labels had a fire in their pistol powder line..... No one could get pistol powder reliably until ADI came back on line. They didn't make every variety but they made enough that their lack of production created the shortage that creates runs on ALL of the pistol powders.

I am surprised no S&B action, I recall them being around at Cabela's even when CCI etc. were scarce.

People will learn, I think half the reason no real powder shortage now is everyone who stocked up after the powder shortage. They have powder, some just forgot to buy primers at the same time.

Lesson here, look at shooting habits and translate that into required amount of balanced inventory of lead/bullets, powder, and primers to carry you through a reasonable amount of time. Maintain that level by replacing as used.

[RogerDat]

I do wonder if the gun show this coming weekend will take place and if there will be people selling primers for really high prices. That was the case with .22 rim fire, powder, and of course AP 5.56 ammo when it got banned. Saw that AP ammo hitting buck a round. With .22 going for 3x price at Walmart when it was in stock.

[Froogal]

Seems to me in a way once again we are seeing the downside of just in time delivery model. It is efficient for companies to have only the capacity required to meet demand over time and to keep inventory at levels that just meet current demand.

When we get repeated spikes in demand the limited inventory is gone and the limited capacity that is able to keep up over the long haul can't ramp up to meet sudden high demand. Business is in most cases foolish to invest in equipment that is not fully utilized or materials that sit around as finished inventory. Be like buying a 1 ton truck to haul a 1/2 ton load. However when repeated spikes in demand take place inventory is exhausted, shortages lead to hoarding, or scalper purchases that make it difficult for production to catch up. Throw in even a modest reduction in capacity such as powder valley outlined and you have the 2020 primer shortage.

The inventory can absorb a single run, maybe even two, but there have been at least two or three in a row and they have gone on for months. Not all that different than the great powder shortage. Obama election, followed by Sandy Hook, followed by Congress considering gun regulation. Toss in ADI Powder that supplies much of the powder sold under US company labels had a fire in their pistol powder line..... No one could get pistol powder reliably until ADI came back on line. They didn't make every variety but they made enough that their lack of production created the shortage that creates runs on ALL of the pistol powders.

I am surprised no S&B action, I recall them being around at Cabela's even when CCI etc. were scarce.

People will learn, I think half the reason no real powder shortage now is everyone who stocked up after the powder shortage. They have powder, some just forgot to buy primers at the same time.

Lesson here, look at shooting habits and translate that into required amount of balanced inventory of lead/bullets, powder, and primers to carry you through a reasonable amount of time. Maintain that level by replacing as used.

I have also had negative thoughts about that "just in time" delivery thing. At the factory where I used to work, many times we had to go into overtime to hopefully meet a customers needs because suddenly that customers demands were greater than his supply.

[dtknowles]

Seems to me in a way once again we are seeing the downside of just in time delivery model. It is efficient for companies to have only the capacity required to meet demand over time and to keep inventory at levels that just meet current demand.

When we get repeated spikes in demand the limited inventory is gone and the limited capacity that is able to keep up over the long haul can't ramp up to meet sudden high demand. Business is in most cases foolish to invest in equipment that is not fully utilized or materials that sit around as finished inventory. Be like buying a 1 ton truck to haul a 1/2 ton load. However when repeated spikes in demand take place inventory is exhausted, shortages lead to hoarding, or scalper purchases that make it difficult for production to catch up. Throw in even a modest reduction in capacity such as powder valley outlined and you have the 2020 primer shortage.

The inventory can absorb a single run, maybe even two, but there have been at least two or three in a row and they have gone on for months. Not all that different than the great powder shortage. Obama election, followed by Sandy Hook, followed by Congress considering gun regulation. Toss in ADI Powder that supplies much of the powder sold under US company labels had a fire in their pistol powder line..... No one could get pistol powder reliably until ADI came back on line. They didn't make every variety but they made enough that their lack of production created the shortage that creates runs on ALL of the pistol powders.

I am surprised no S&B action, I recall them being around at Cabela's even when CCI etc. were scarce.

People will learn, I think half the reason no real powder shortage now is everyone who stocked up after the powder shortage. They have powder, some just forgot to buy primers at the same time.

Lesson here, look at shooting habits and translate that into required amount of balanced inventory of lead/bullets, powder, and primers to carry you through a reasonable amount of time. Maintain that level by replacing as used.

Around here balanced inventory translates as a lifetime supply.

Tim

[quilbilly]

With the shortage, I decided to take an inventory of just how many primers are in my possession. I couldn't believe how many I found or when I got them. Nice! In my business travels to sporting goods stores I noticed that around here no one has gun oil of any kind - Hoppe's, Remoil, or any other - but plenty of gun cleaning supplies. Curious.

[bayjoe]

Auction on Gun Broker for 1000 small pistol primers is at $1000.00 with 23 hours left to go!!!!!!!!!!!!

[flyer1]

A dollar a primer....insane.

[bayjoe]

Up to $1232.50

[Four-Sixty]

Up to $1232.50

The thumbnail for the auction shows 10 boxes, while the description say only 1 box. It looks like someone will be upset!

Just think if a year ago you bought a semi full of primers at a bulk rate. You'd be cashing in now.

[bayjoe]

GunBroker let someone off the hook. Price is back down to $1025.00

[reddog81]

Factories using just in time inventory doesn’t mean a thing if you do your part and buy enough in advance to keep shooting. I don’t understand how someone can complain about factories using JIT models if they are doing the same thing and only buying the primers they plan on using in the near future.

Plan and buy accordingly then blips in the supply chain won’t matter.

[Brass&Lead]

Buy it cheap and stack it deep!

[JoeJames]

Seems to me in a way once again we are seeing the downside of just in time delivery model. It is efficient for companies to have only the capacity required to meet demand over time and to keep inventory at levels that just meet current demand.

When we get repeated spikes in demand the limited inventory is gone and the limited capacity that is able to keep up over the long haul can't ramp up to meet sudden high demand. Business is in most cases foolish to invest in equipment that is not fully utilized or materials that sit around as finished inventory. Be like buying a 1 ton truck to haul a 1/2 ton load. However when repeated spikes in demand take place inventory is exhausted, shortages lead to hoarding, or scalper purchases that make it difficult for production to catch up. Throw in even a modest reduction in capacity such as powder valley outlined and you have the 2020 primer shortage.

The inventory can absorb a single run, maybe even two, but there have been at least two or three in a row and they have gone on for months. Not all that different than the great powder shortage. Obama election, followed by Sandy Hook, followed by Congress considering gun regulation. Toss in ADI Powder that supplies much of the powder sold under US company labels had a fire in their pistol powder line..... No one could get pistol powder reliably until ADI came back on line. They didn't make every variety but they made enough that their lack of production created the shortage that creates runs on ALL of the pistol powders.

I am surprised no S&B action, I recall them being around at Cabela's even when CCI etc. were scarce.

People will learn, I think half the reason no real powder shortage now is everyone who stocked up after the powder shortage. They have powder, some just forgot to buy primers at the same time.

Lesson here, look at shooting habits and translate that into required amount of balanced inventory of lead/bullets, powder, and primers to carry you through a reasonable amount of time. Maintain that level by replacing as used.

Excellent point on balanced inventory. Say you are primarily loading 38 Special wadcutters; if casting the boolits are not that big a deal if you have access to wheel weights, etc., and with a straight wall case, the cases can be reused many, many times; so the balance problem comes down to powder and primers. 7000 grains to a pound; so in a pert near standard WC 38 Special load of 3 grains of Bullseye pistol powder, you can look at (hopefully) 2,333 powder charges out of a pound of Bullseye. Ok, did you buy 2 and a third (2,333 count) bricks of small pistol primers at the same time? If not you are plumb out of balance at the git-go.

[Froogal]

Excellent point on balanced inventory. Say you are primarily loading 38 Special wadcutters; if casting the boolits are not that big a deal if you have access to wheel weights, etc., and with a straight wall case, the cases can be reused many, many times; so the balance problem comes down to powder and primers. 7000 grains to a pound; so in a pert near standard WC 38 Special load of 3 grains of Bullseye pistol powder, you can look at (hopefully) 2,333 powder charges out of a pound of Bullseye. Ok, did you buy 2 and a third (2,333 count) bricks of small pistol primers at the same time? If not you are plumb out of balance at the git-go.

Sorry, but this time around, it does not work that way. About 10 months ago I bought the powder I will need for the next 2 years, and tried to buy primers at the same time, but the primers were already out of stock, and shortly after, my favorite powder was also out of stock.

[brstevns]

It all comes down to GREED!

[snowwolfe]

It all comes down to GREED!

How so?

[Blanket]

no sympathy from me, if folks weren't smart enough to prepare after the last 2 or three shortages they get what they get