Has Anyone Found Primers In Stock........Anywhere?

[reddog81]

But it really is NOT a surge in demand. The demand has been steadily increasing month by month for about 4 years now, ever since it looked like Hillary might get elected, and the demand is not likely to drop off even AFTER Trump gets elected for another 4 years.

In 2018 and 2019 demand dropped off quite a bit. I get emails from a variety of vendors and during the first half of 2019 ammo and component sellers were desperate to move product. Retailers had primers on sale and Federal and Winchester had rebates available. Same with Vihtavuori powders. I stocked up for just over $20 per thousand primers and under $25 per pound of Vihtavuori powders(normally they run $33 per pound).

[fcvan]

I loaded every casing I had that was empty, then made sure I had plenty of powder and primers, not to mention alloy for casting. I won't say how much or each but lets just say a lot. I'm good to wait for things to come down before I get the things I don't have much of, shot shell primers and #11 BP caps. I just don't shoot much of either, but I still need to maintain a supply of components. I just won't panic buy at stoooopid prices. Last time, I wouldn't pay more than $30/1000 for primers. I stocked up when things went back to $22.50/1000 from my supplier, sometimes with hazmat waived or reduced.

[Froogal]

Okay. I f the reason I cannot buy primers is because all of those are going into loaded ammo, then why can't I find any loaded ammo anywhere?

[Mike in MD]

While driving through Western PA yesterday, I found two LGS that had some LRP and LRMP Federal and some Winchester. The other had 209 primers. No one has any SRP or SPP on the shelf that I have seen. And have you seen the craziness on GB? Hundreds of dollars a brick!

[reddog81]

Okay. I f the reason I cannot buy primers is because all of those are going into loaded ammo, then why can't I find any loaded ammo anywhere?

It's out there. You just have to know where to look or be willing to pay high prices. I have a couple local shops that I watch their Facebook feed and at least once per week one of them gets in a decent shipment of ammo at reasonable prices. Otherwise check out ammoseek and get ready to pay through the nose.

[Dancing Bear]

After going through numerous "shortages" over the last 25 some years I learned to stock up when I really didn't need to on both ammo and reloading components. Would I like more just in case? Sure but I'm set for now.
$5.99 for a box of 50 9mm target ammo sounds like fiction now but that's what we were paying.

[megasupermagnum]

Not sure the analysis of "Not worth investing in the surge is worth it" is valid.

In 2018 there were 8,100,000,000 (8.1 billion) rounds of ammunition manufactured in the US. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/w...of-ammo-a-year

Each round has a primer; and at an average retail price of 3.5 cents that translates to $283.5 Million dollars retail in primer value. Making primers for a corporation is fairly cheap (when capital machinery and plant costs are discounted). Assuming 25% in direct costs (mfg, pkg, labor, shipping) and a 25% mark up for distributor/retail operations; it still leaves $141.75 Million. If we see only a surge of 10% demand increase in 2019 & 2020; that means a ~$30 Million increase in primer cash flow to the manufacturers. On the surface; looks to me like there is a case for a more detailed analysis of the viability of expanding primer production by the Ammunition industry - using more actual numbers in the analysis.

By the way; anecdotally - it appears there is a much greater expansion of Ammunition (by inference primers) demand than 10% in 2019 and 2020.

I'm just a lowly technician. I work on machinery, currently diecast and CNC's. I won't pretend to have the first clue about how Federal, Winchester, and the other primer manufacturers should do things. If they think they can make more money by investing in more equipment and workers, they will do so. I will say I have set up a number of work cells, and it isn't an overnight process. One die cast machine we got in I think January 2019, and we have been working on it since. I helped move the diecast machine in, set it up, ran plumbing, hoses, set up guarding, robots, conveyors, all that good stuff. Plus there is machining, polishing, etc. to set up too. All of this, and we are only just recently getting the parts approved for production for Harley Davidson for the 2021 model year. That is on top of the time for the manufacturer to build the machine, which can easily be a year.

There is way more to expanding than most realize. I have no idea what a primer making machine looks like, but I'm thinking it is more than a quick bolt together, and plug in ordeal.

@Froogal, it most certainly is a surge. 2017-2019 was known as the Trump slump for firearms and ammunition sales. I do not know what the numbers were, or are now, but there is a drastic increase in demand this year.

[Winger Ed.]

Okay. I f the reason I cannot buy primers is because all of those are going into loaded ammo, then why can't I find any loaded ammo anywhere?

It's hoarding, just like what happened with Navy Literature (toilet paper) a few months ago.
People that used a package or two every so often would buy a whole grocery cart full of it.

How many stories have ya seen, even here, where some place would get in a small shipment of primers, powder, .22LRs,
have their buddy hold it back from the shelf, or see it in stock somewhere, and they'd buy it all?

Like anything else, If a few people do it, its no big deal, the system can absorb it.
If almost everybody does that,,,, here we are.

[mad88minutejohn]

Midway usa in-stock notifications have been my friend.

I got 5k spp and 5k srp

Shared 2k of the spp with a guy on another forum for cost.



Sent from my moto e6 using Tapatalk

[dwtim]

I'm in the Northeast, and the only thing I can't find are small pistol primers. (But there are still magnum pistol primers.) The things that I can't find are factory ammo for 9mm or 38 Special. But then, I load my own mostly. If it gets really stupid, I'll go back to cap-and-ball guns for fun. But I guarantee my current supplies will outlast a hoarder's bank account.

I have a long history of being a contrarian with my purchases. Just buy what's not popular, right?

[blikseme300]

I have been in manufacturing most of my life and it is not that easy. We were set up to run 24/7 during our peak months and dialed back when things got slow. Once running 24/7 there is nothing that can be done.

Successful companies do not invest in overcapacity. It is capital intensive and the economics do not work. It made more sense for us to invest in warehousing and at times we rented space to stockpile inventory in anticipation the peaks. Not sure what the regulations are for stocking piling millions of primers so that may not make sense. With primers lasing indefinitely, it is a viable solution if insurance and regulatory constraints can be met.

We also ran up inventory before contract negotiations. Helped in more than one way.

We only added capacity when we could forecast market growth or the exiting of a competitor. Short term demand spikes, like this one, would not trigger investing.

I work in the packaging manufacturing industry with the majority of our product being used by produce companies that package their product into consumer and bulk packaging. Think Full color Apple, potato, mozarella bags, etc, from 1.5# to 50#.

We are outfitted with enough equipment so as to be able to at peak times to run at around 85% sustained production in 8x3x7 shifts. The 15% is consumed by maintenance or breakdowns, etc. Prior to Covid we were at peak due to seasonal demands. Typical lead times for new orders was 3 weeks then. Now we are still at at new crazy peak, which has in the past been a slow time with 2 shifts of 7hrs only, and our lead times are in excess of 3 months. This is due to the huge shift in demand for end user packaging versus a large proportion used by the hospitality business. Will we spend more CAPEX to meet these new demands? Yes, but only to streamline and cut out some glaring bottle necks but not to be able to return to our previous lead times. Maybe 20~30% more than the previous financial year.

I was not prescient in stockpiling enough reloading components because of Covid but with the sales on these items last year and remembering the crazy behaviors in the past number of election years and having some disposable income I purchased a number of items that store well typically every month. Primers were on top of my list so every month 4 bricks of CCI were purchased, spread across what I typically use. There were also good deals on firearms and accessories requiring me to add another large safe. Am I a hoarder, maybe, but I was not caught with my pants down either.

At the indoor range I frequent during summer, 95~105Degrees not uncommon where I live I’m typically alone in the 15 lane range. In stock ammo is scarce and when available with a 1box limit. Lousy times but we need to simply wait it out.

I apologize for this long post but I’m stuck in hospital with tubes including a catheter inside me. I do not recommend this to anybody as your ability to do certain things are impaired.

[Froogal]

Midway usa in-stock notifications have been my friend.

I got 5k spp and 5k srp

Shared 2k of the spp with a guy on another forum for cost.



Sent from my moto e6 using Tapatalk

Yes. I AM signed up to receive notifications. Signed up at least 6 months ago. NOTHING!

I also check the website twice per day. Again, NOTHING. Same goes for Graf's and Natchez.

[mad88minutejohn]

Yes. I AM signed up to receive notifications. Signed up at least 6 months ago. NOTHING!

I also check the website twice per day. Again, NOTHING. Same goes for Graf's and Natchez.

Its a bad situation. They were out of stock within minutes of the notification. If you get the email, dont dilly dally. Put it in the cart and check out.

Sent from my moto e6 using Tapatalk

[JonB_in_Glencoe]

Well plenty is relative & without cost, irrelevant. if you found old ss Win, then you bought primers from the early 90s that cost maybe $10/1000.

I didn't include prices, because they were all over the place.
all the primers I seen were new production, except the old ss Win that I bought at $2 per hundred.
also, I needed CCI LPP, and one vendor had them at $40 per 1K,,,more than I'd like to spend but still reasonable under the current conditions. as to the other prices, I seen several brands at several different vendors, multiple bricks stacked on the table...some were $35, not CCI ...but I also seen some at 55 and 65 and 70 and 80.
IMHO, the cost when varied this much, is irrelevent, but when shelves are bare at most all the LGS in my area, the fact that they are available at Gunshows is more the point, IMHO.

[toallmy]

We'll see what happens in November before I start to get concerned .

[LenH]

$5.99 for a box of 50 9mm target ammo sounds like fiction now but that's what we were paying.[/QUOTE]

I know a guy that just bought a 9MM, I made that statement and he laughed at me. He found a box at a Pawn shop and paid $40 for said box.
I bought a guys reloading equipment for pennies on the dollar because his wife wanted it gone and he had bought a Dillon 550B to reload 9mm.
That was in 2004 and I was buying 9MM for about $6. Funny how things turn out.

[mr surveyor]

I keep seeing y'all mention $6/box 9mm target ammo in 2004/2005. I don't remember seeing that price (around here) until the obamanation years started. In 2005 we were buying (9mm) Blazer Aluminum for $2.99/box and Blazer Brass for $3.99/box. I think it did bump up a dollar more in '06-'07.

But then again, I remember buying .22 ammo for 29¢ for shorts, 39¢ for longs and 49¢ for long rifles. That wasn't all that long ago ....


jd

[Hanzy4200]

I think if the best possible scenario plays out, we might see normalcy in 6-8 months. Otherwise it could be indefinite. Can you imagine if Joe wins? As underhanded as this is getting, I'm not confident in anything.

[WILCO]

The lefties will not have to take your guns. They scare all these stupid hoarders into buying up everything in sight and then nobody can reload to feed their guns.

No hoarding about it.

Burning cities and lawless government will motivate
all kinds of people into action.

Supply and demand.

[fredj338]

Not sure the analysis of "Not worth investing in the surge is worth it" is valid.

In 2018 there were 8,100,000,000 (8.1 billion) rounds of ammunition manufactured in the US. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/w...of-ammo-a-year

Each round has a primer; and at an average retail price of 3.5 cents that translates to $283.5 Million dollars retail in primer value. Making primers for a corporation is fairly cheap (when capital machinery and plant costs are discounted). Assuming 25% in direct costs (mfg, pkg, labor, shipping) and a 25% mark up for distributor/retail operations; it still leaves $141.75 Million. If we see only a surge of 10% demand increase in 2019 & 2020; that means a ~$30 Million increase in primer cash flow to the manufacturers. On the surface; looks to me like there is a case for a more detailed analysis of the viability of expanding primer production by the Ammunition industry - using more actual numbers in the analysis.

By the way; anecdotally - it appears there is a much greater expansion of Ammunition (by inference primers) demand than 10% in 2019 and 2020.

Well the part you are missing is the manuf isnt making 3.5c per primer, more like half that. So the math isnt quite right.