I guess you've forgotten your high school physics. I just add up the energy needed to raise the temperature of the pot, copper scrap, and lead plus the energy to phase change lead from solid to liquid and compare that to the energy output of the propane burned. As alluded to here a layer of insulation helps a lot. My smelter has the pot sitting inside a 30 gal steel drum with 4" of fiberglas (paper back removed) and an inner sheet metal shell. Firebrick insulation is massive overkill for this type of smelter. For a simple smelting setup like this an efficiency of 15-20% is quite reasonable.