cows and such

[rancher1913]

I know there are several members that have cows and was wondering what your take on the calf market is, will there be a January spike or are we in a losing battle this year.

around here the price for a 5 weight is about a buck a pound, that's about a 3rd of what they were selling for a few years ago and well below the break-even for most ranchers, me included. I had hopped to hold back some heifers this year but may need to sell everything just to cover feed expenses this year. one neighbor said he was down a hundred grand over last year and doesn't know if he can hold on. it looks like a blood bath around here and it sure ain't a fun time to be a rancher.

calves sure look good, had good grass this year. most business that cater to ranchers around here are starting to hurt, the protein tub supplier I usually spend a couple a thousand dollars with will probably be lucky to get a couple of hundred from me. wonder if the old adage of "as ag goes so goes the economy" will hold true this year.

[dtknowles]

I can't provide any advice but it seems we are in down swing in prices at a time of growth. Too much production and not enough consumers across the board. Even the floods, droughts and disease can't seem to stifle production.

Tim

[jonp]

I get a farming update on the all the ag markets most every day although I don't have a farm or keep livestock. I just find it interesting. Live cattle are showing a slight uptick. If you combine the website news with the futures market you can get an idea of the direction but I'm sure no expert in trading let alone any ag market futures.

http://www.agriculture.com/?did=84475

[MT Gianni]

Most of my neighbors contracted in May or June. I believe the corn producers have backed off production some but are no longer driving the market rise that was there the last couple of years.

[Gofaaast]

Wait to sell till after the first big snow storm that comes through the plains and rallies prices some. You have to hope and pray the storm does not affect you though. Huge supply of bawlers right now and corn is inching back up, not good news for the calf market. High prices cured high prices now the pendulum has swung the other way and low prices will cure low prices.

[Alstep]

Talked to my neighbor a few days ago, milk prices are down to $14 a hundred. A while back he sold some calves and the dealer sent him a bill to haul them away. The only saving grace for him is, he was smart enough to start a cheese plant some years ago. So instead of shipping milk at a loss, he makes cheese at 4 times the price for a profit. l don't know how a dairy farmer stays in business these days. Even some creameries are shutting down.

[tja6435]

What about offering direct sales from farm to consumer? That'd allow more room for profit on your end, but a lot more work dealing with butchering.

[dtknowles]

What about offering direct sales from farm to consumer? That'd allow more room for profit on your end, but a lot more work dealing with butchering.

I thought that people were doing that already. We used to go in halves on a steer and buy raw milk at the farm and hundreds of pounds of potatoes and dried beans.

Tim

[Beagle333]

I know that I keep wishing that I had a couple of cows, every time I go to the market, and I'm kinda tired of chicken all the time. I would think that a few cows wandering around the property might not be such a bad thing. Haven't had any cattle in a little over 30 years. It might also be fun.

[Ole Joe Clarke]

From the other side of the problem, (and I understand your problem and hate that it is happening to farmers and ranchers), when I go shopping for groceries I can't afford 8-10 bucks a pound for a rib eye. I haven't purchased them in 4 or 5 years. I buy the marked down stew meat or 80/20 hamburger because it is about 30% cheaper. We buy mostly chicken and pork chops on occasion.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining. We are certainly blessed.

Leon

[William Yanda]

Here in western NY, there are fewer dairy farmers, but about the same number of dairy cows. Several large 200-300 cow dairys instead of dozens of 40-60 cow dairies. There is no practical way for them to handle direct sales.

[rancher1913]

we are to far out from a large city to do the direct sale thing and the usda red tape to get started takes a lot of cash up front, we do keep and finish a few, mostly for our own use. the fact that you guys are paying 8 - 10 bucks a pound and the rancher is getting 1 dollar of that shows where all the money is in the beef business. was more curious to hear what some others are trying to do to get through the tough times.

[MaryB]

My beef supplier does direct to the consumer. She partnered with a local butcher so the USDA end is covered. She keeps a file of who orders what so all I do is drop her an email an say "get me on the list". They drop the cattle at the butchers along with the cutting instructions for each one. Butcher calls her when it is ready and she picks up deliveries for 5-6 people and delivers to the front door. No real middle man, butcher charges the same fee as if I brought it in to be cut up. Think my cost this year was $3.49 a pound. My quarter was 165 pounds hanging weight, processing was $117.10, she got $2.54 a pound. They feed grass so little overhead costs.

[MaryB]

I am 90 miles from the nearest town over 75,000, population density out where i live is about 13 people per square mile. Rancher I buy beef from delivers all over including to some Twin Cities restaurants 140 miles from their ranch. They have a waiting list to buy beef and a customer has to drop off the list before they can add a new one. They do a very good business and deliver to my front door. They partnered with a local butcher to cover the USDA end of things.

we are to far out from a large city to do the direct sale thing and the usda red tape to get started takes a lot of cash up front, we do keep and finish a few, mostly for our own use. the fact that you guys are paying 8 - 10 bucks a pound and the rancher is getting 1 dollar of that shows where all the money is in the beef business. was more curious to hear what some others are trying to do to get through the tough times.

[bayjoe]

Up to 2 weeks ago not many calves moving. La Junta had a few out of New Mexico. So with the grass holding out and not much moving off the mountain right now, it looks like most of the calves moving to the markets are holding off. When they do move it will be all at once, and you know what happens then.
I haven't kept up on the video auctions. That might be an option, to talk to a Superior rep and see when the bulk of calves are moving.
In your area a lot depends on what the wheat is doing in Kan/Neb/OK.
You've got a tough decision to make. Good Luck

Just an after thought but with the down turn, you might want to consider the organic (grass fed/no antibiotics) It is a nich market but can be very lucrative
Double J up at Pierce butcher organic beef and they might put you in touch with the organic meat buyers.

[jcwit]

Guess it depends somewhat on where you live. Here is this weeks add where Wife & I shop for beef.

Prices are effective from: Monday, OCT10 through Sunday, OCT 16TH

WHOLE NEW YORK STRIP LOINS $2.89LB 12LB AV	PRIME RIB WHOLE BONELESS rib eyes $3.99 lb 15LB AVG	WHOLE BEEF short loins $4.50 lb t-bone- porter	SHAVED HAM $1.79LB
WHOLE TOP SIRLOIN $2.99 lb 10-15 lb avg.	WHOLE BEEF TENDERLOIN $8.99LB	WHOLE PORK BUTT.99Lb PORK SHOULDERS .95LB	BONELESS CHICKEN BREAST 10lb-$14.90 40lb-$51.99
SPLIT CHICKEN BREAST 10 LB $11.90 40 LB $39.99	PEPSI LITERS 5/$5.00 +DEP	WHOLE BONELESS PORK LOINS $1.59LB	RUSSET POTATOES 8LB BAG$1.25 5/$5.99
WHOLE BEEF BRISKET 12LB AVG $2.99 LB	TILAPIA FILLETS 5LB $12.25 10LB BOX $19.99	CENTER CUT PORK CHOPS 10 LB $19.90	PREMIUM TRIM PORK STEAK 10lbs $13.90
POLLOCK FILLETS 10LB BOX $15.90	PREMIUM #1 SLICED BACON 10 LBS $25.90 30 lb box $68.99	EZ PEEL 31/40 CT SHRIMP 1LB $4.75	FIRST CUT PORK CHOPS 10LB $9.90
BONELESS BEEF CHUCK ROAST 10LB $35.90	WHOLE BONE IN PORK LOINS $1.25 LB	LOWERYS OWN FRESH MADE BRATS 10 LB $25.90	CENTRELLA WATER 24PK $1.99
BAR-S-HOTDOGS 10LB $8.90	100% PURE BEEF hamburger patties 5 lbs $12.95	BONELESS BEEF RUMP ROAST 10LB $29.90	WHOLE BONE IN TURKEY BREAST $1.69LB
CAT FISH NUGGETS 5LB $9.99 15LB BOX $23.90	RED POTATOES 50LB $9.99	SMALL CHICKEN WINGS 10LB $16.90 40 LB BOX $67.50	EGGS .25 DOZEN 10/$1.90
100% BEEF HAMBURGER PREMIUM EXTRA LEAN GROUND FRESH 10LBS $23.90	P&D RAW SHRIMP 31/40 $12.99 2LB BAG	CHICKEN DRUMSTICKS 10LB $ 5.90 40LB BOX $22.99	BEEF RANCH STEAK 10 LB $27.90
JUMBO CHICKEN WINGS 10LB $21.90 40LB BOX $79.99	COUNTRY STYLE PORK RIBS 10LB$14.90	Cooked SHRIMP 31/40 $6.99LB SALMON FILLETS 2LB BAG $8.99	FRESH CHICKEN LEG 1/4S 10LB$490 40LB BOX$18.99
SMALL PORK SPARE RIBS $1.99LB BOX $1.89LB	PREMIUM BEEF GROUND SIRLOIN 10 LB $29.90	BABY BACK PORK RIBS $2..59 LB BOX $2.49 LB	CATFISH FILLETS 5LB $ 22.90 15LB $56.99
BONELESS BEEF ARM ROAST 10LB$ 24.90	PORK RIB TIPS 10LB BOX $11.90	POTATOES 50LB BAG $7.90	TURKEY NECKS OR WINGS DRUMS 10LB $7.90

This is where they are from, and yes it is quality!

http://lowerysmeatandgrocery.com/

[rancher1913]

thanks bayjoe, that was more along the lines that I wanted to know. we already do the all natural, preconditioned thing and that helps us.

would love to do the direct sales mary but we do not have the resources to house and feed the calves for another year and a half and the few ranchers that have tried it around here spend a lot of time sitting on the beef because the buyer backed out at the last minute or trying to collect money. there are a lot of options to increase our revenue but unfortunately they all take a lot of money and resources that we just don't have.

thanks for the reply's but would really like to hear from some of the producers that I know are on here either big or small and what their take on the future holds.

[Three44s]

rancher1913,

Yes, this hurts!

We sold our yearlings last summer and I thought that was pretty bad but it turns out we did very good by current standards. (mid- July and mid- August)

We used to sell direct to the feed lots but the size and scale thing caught us up, it's hard to get buyers for mid sized bunches and our local auction yard is one of the few survivors of that debacle so for the first time in decades we bring our yearling cattle to the auction.

The other difference is that we are in communication around our traditional selling times and they advertise a "feeder sale" every so often so those buyers know when to get there ...... it makes a huge difference in buyer pressure to have twice as many buyers at a sale than not have them.

If I need sales at a different time than one of those sales, I have to take my lumps but fit the volume to the need and sell some "scraps" so to speak to get me to the "big event".

I'd rather get beat up on a few sort outs rather than some choice animals until I can get to the time when the buyers really show up.

You rather shocked me when I looked at what the market had done lately ........ WOW!

I do have a few cattle to sell even now and this sure blind sided me.

As far as retaining some heifers ....... you know the saying: Buy low and sell high!

I realize that is not much comfort in trying to balance expenses but it's a fact. I hate to make predictions, I am no guru but common sense tells us that while this is not the "low to end all" it is certainly in the running. It makes a lot more sense to sell those heifer calves on the 3.00 highs or yearlings at their highs of 2.20 two years ago and replace their moms with cattle in the .90's than the other way around.

And the other thing is that everybody is getting older .......... these are just facts.

Banks are just inclined to want to loan money to cattle people on highs to buy outrageously priced cows and then tell them to sell them when the bottom drops out and that is one of the most destructive thing they could do to their customers!

I want to say that there might be a little price up tick in this thing going out a month or 6-7 weeks but it will not be a ground shattering experience. Right now we've likely got some producers stuck in the doorway trying to beat an even lower price expectation and you may profit some a bit of wait and see as cooler heads prevail?

You look at historical cattle pricing and it's a see saw over a season. There should be a mild swing back up, a correction if you will but the general low situation is most likely baked in the cake as they say!

On the protein tubs, I was in a position to need to include some a while back but I was also talking to our extension agent who runs cows and has a nutrition back ground and he suggested just adding prime alfalfa hay ......... I think we were about 6# per cow out it turned out.

If you price those tubs .......... I think you get to around 700 bucks per ton at a 36% level and even then alfalfa at say 20% was 200 bucks. It was during winter feeding and we were dishing out cull apples then with poorer feeder hay so we were out with feeding equipment anyway but even a special trip with that small an amount of prime alfalfa by itself pays for a lot of fuel when you look at what the convience is costing you.

Today small bales are running at 150 a ton tops if you shop around. If you have enough cattle, big bales of prime alfalfa is much less than that or you could break one and dedicate a truck to that and feed off some of it each day, harder to meter it out though.



Best regards

Three 44s

[Three44s]

rancher1913,

I did not go for the organic cattle thing but I have been doing the natural bit, I have given it about 6-7 years to turn into something I could really feel like it was paying off.

I guess my ship came in last summer about the time I was ready to bag the whole business!

I had one set last August get run up to $146.00 ...... it was ten head of steers in the mid 700#'s. We usually get about 2-3 cents added and sometimes it makes no difference if the right buyers are not there. Other bunches of heifers got priced right up with the steers ....... I think we were averaging around the $130 range ....... I hung my head then and now it looks good ...... go figure!

When you factor in the lower gain from not using an implant and or better efficiency from feed additives ....... it's not easy to justify.

The old adage about "something for nothing" holds here ....... there is a lot of talk from the folks that want this kind of beef but unless you are in the inner circle of producers ........ you just get scraps for putting a rope around your neck!

I market cattle to individuals but I sell them live on the farm and the killer comes and the customer owns the animal before it hits the bricks. We have a truck scale at a rock pit on our farm and they get scaled on wheels and back to the corral.

But we are talking peanuts here ........... If I sell three head that way, it's a big year. Simply put too may people want to tip toe into the store and buy one steak at a time and can't or won't lay out that much money at once.

So what I do is market my cattle that are good animals but either have gotten too big or have some other fault that would cause a discount at the auction. I tell my customers just what the deal is and they can chose accordingly.

You don't run an operation on it but it does take some sting out of the process.

Best regards

Three 44s

[runfiverun]

dang JC.
you pay for red potatoes pretty much what I pay for them right off the field. [literally off the truck that just come off the field]
unless you go right to the cellar and get russets [know the farmer] or pick them out of the piles before the frost they are 10 bucks a 50 lb bag.[red or gold]

that would explain why so many fields went into wheat this year. [the wheat was a barely average harvest in this region BTW]

as far as the beef prices they had to come down.
look at what a matched pair was bringing 5 years ago.
but the end prices are not the price of beef plus a mark up, and processing plus a mark up, and shipping plus a mark up, they are sitting at what the market will bear.

anyway don't look at beef futures look at grass/hay production figures.
I never met a cow raiser that was in the beef business they are all in the grass business.
if the grass is down many will hold onto their calves and at some point the market will have to be saturated driving the price down even further.
unfortunately it's gonna be a long wet winter.