Lead prices falling, but how low is too low?

[Just Duke]

So about those lead prices...................

[AK Caster]

Just love the fact so many people here know what the best investments were in the past. I bet you guys could even predict the winners and score spread of the last 5 super bowls

Still hoping lead, silver, and gold drops so I can buy a little. But by this time next year some of you wise men will tell me what I should of done.

[RogerDat]

Lead prices can fall too low if:

• Demand is so low that it puts all the sources of supply out of business. Our own little demand piggybacks on industrial demand without that demand to support the lead industry we have no supply. Most household and even industrial uses have been replaced with plastics.
• The economy is in the toilet and any non-essential to life commodity has no market aka the great depression when things such as cars or furniture saw prices fall through the floor. Supplies and equipment might be cheap but those that work will probably be unemployed, and those that get retirement checks from pension investments or SS taxes paid by workers won't have any money.

Economics theory as applied to current world, tax policies, the US or world economy are all complex subjects that do not lend themselves well to discussion in brief or even long postings. At best one can get a link to some article which may or may not be well reasoned. Maybe some sound bite type statements and cherry picked data posted. Also answers and comments tend to be snarky and hostile which does not lend itself to thoughtful discussion.

If the subject is complicated both in terms of theory and data I think it is a safe bet that no matter how brilliant the membership in the discussion the forum works against anything but "yes men" type discussions or "shouted" arguments. For example I don't know exact figures off hand but IF 70% of taxes are paid by the top 10% (not seen evidence just statement) that would be unfair tax policy UNLESS 70% or more of all income was going to that same 10% because you see if it is an income tax and you make more of the income then you pay more taxes. If a group only makes 10% of all income then the group would reasonably only pay 10% of income taxes right? If another group made 40% of all income that one would be expected to pay 40% of the income taxes paid. Now if the top 10% make 90% of the money and only pays 70% of the taxes someone else is paying 20% that the top 10% should have paid on that 90% of income. If the top 10% only makes 60% of the income then they are paying more than an equal share. However equal and fair are not always the same. Otherwise giving the team that lost the same "champion" trophy as the team that won would be "fair".

BTW - prices of lead locally for purchases from a scrap yard are not down much at all, the prices going in are down a pretty good amount.

[jmort]

"Lead prices can fall too low if:

Demand is so low that it puts all the sources of supply out of business"


Good point

[Blammer]

If I had to make a call, I'd buy silver now.

[jmort]

"If I had to make a call, I'd buy silver now."

Me too, but silver has been a bitter mistress for me.

[dtknowles]

Just love the fact so many people here know what the best investments were in the past. I bet you guys could even predict the winners and score spread of the last 5 super bowls

Still hoping lead, silver, and gold drops so I can buy a little. But by this time next year some of you wise men will tell me what I should of done.

I have told everyone here what I am doing to prepare for the recession that is almost certain in the next few years, move to cash. Yes, if lead, silver and gold drop some more use some of that cash to buy it. When the recession hits, sell the metal and by stocks when they start to recover.

Tim

[jmort]

"move to cash."

You mean literally or electronically? I thinks having a stash of paper cash in a safe place make a lot sense right now. Electronic cash seems perilous for the little guy. I often chuckle at the concept of paper money backed by the full faith and credit of the issuing government/entity. Still, if it is legal tender, my creditors, as few as they are, have to accept it. And, if there is a 'bank holiday" and no ATM access, it would be nice to have some cash. With negative interest rates proliferating, paper cash or even silver cash makes sense.

[dtknowles]

...................If the subject is complicated both in terms of theory and data I think it is a safe bet that no matter how brilliant the membership in the discussion the forum works against anything but "yes men" type discussions or "shouted" arguments. For example I don't know exact figures off hand but IF 70% of taxes are paid by the top 10% (not seen evidence just statement) that would be unfair tax policy UNLESS 70% or more of all income was going to that same 10% because you see if it is an income tax and you make more of the income then you pay more taxes. If a group only makes 10% of all income then the group would reasonably only pay 10% of income taxes right? If another group made 40% of all income that one would be expected to pay 40% of the income taxes paid. Now if the top 10% make 90% of the money and only pays 70% of the taxes someone else is paying 20% that the top 10% should have paid on that 90% of income. If the top 10% only makes 60% of the income then they are paying more than an equal share. However equal and fair are not always the same. Otherwise giving the team that lost the same "champion" trophy as the team that won would be "fair".

BTW - prices of lead locally for purchases from a scrap yard are not down much at all, the prices going in are down a pretty good amount.

The best trained minds can't explain economics to congress in a couple day and the training takes years and years so, yes, any economic theory discussions here are going to be only introductory.

Here is a link to the 10% - 70% data. Your tax fairness discussion seems to confirm you point about the uselessness of deep financial discussion here.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/12/news...my/rich-taxes/

The top 10 percent of taxpayers paid over 70% of the total amount collected in federal income taxes in 2010, the latest year figures are available, according to the Tax Foundation, a think tank that advocates for lower taxes. That's up from 55% in 1986.

That is from the article posted, it is not the same as the article that I read yesterday, which I think was data from a different year and put the number at 68%

In general the big earners pay more and at a higher rate. I did not call the rich this time because the Rich might not pay any taxes if they don't have any income, you can have a net worth of a billion dollars and not have any reportable income even if you net worth doubles if it is invested in real estate or other capital investments like factory equipment or stocks or gold.

Tim

[jonp]

Trying to time the precious metals market is a fools game. Buy in steady increments throughout the year as part of a larger retirement portfolio.

Lead is falling because we don't have to pay for mining it in this country anymore as Obama has driven all domestic lead production out of business. The cost of recycling lead is far lower so the cost of buying it is lower. /couple this with lower usage due to the economy and the infamous deadly lead costs less.

[troyboy]

All metals are low, will be for some time. Many mining companies will fail as prices will continue to plummet.

[dtknowles]

When timing a market most speculators try to put too fine a line on it. Don't try to pick a bottom or a top but work to buy low and sell high. Not buy at the bottom or sell at the top. Pick a longer time scale think decade not year or month. The major market cycle is every 10 years (or many as few as 8 years but rarely more than 10). If you start young you can get 5 or 6 fabulous trades in your life time. If you try to shoot for the intermediate cycles you are playing with fire because of false moves by the market. You know that there is going to be another bottom in the next two to three years, really just after the next presidential election and it does not matter who wins the election.

Tim

[MaryB]

You have to look at silver not from a fiat standpoint but as a store of value standpoint. 1948 a silver quarter bought a gallon of gas with a penny change, in 2015 a silver quarter buys a gallon of gas and 50 cents change(at $1.99/gal in my town as of today). Now a paper dollar from 1948 lost?(to much food, brain not doing the math right)

[Merick]

There are a lot of places to buy and sell silver, but the problem with it in my eyes is that the spreads are too wide (dealer markup in other words) to get it in and out of folding money, and it has limited use. If you were on an island alone what would could you do with silver dollars? A bucket of wheel weights on the other hand you could get to work casting bullets, feed yourself, and with any luck shoot a hole in the ground, collect the ensuing bubbling crude, and move away from there. However lead is marginally portable, and hard to trade outside of present company. As I figure it nothing is going to check all the boxes, so it doesn't hurt to have a few different things.

[MaryB]

Silver is easy to sell on Craigslist and ebay!

[Hardcast416taylor]

My Granddaughter told me about something an economics professor told her class 2 years back when she was still in college. He said there are 3rd and 4th generation families of coal miners still sitting on their front porch with a pick ax and shovel just waiting for the coal boom days of WW 2 time to return. Robert

[AK Caster]

My Granddaughter told me about something an economics professor told her class 2 years back when she was still in college. He said there are 3rd and 4th generation families of coal miners still sitting on their front porch with a pick ax and shovel just waiting for the coal boom days of WW 2 time to return. Robert

LOL but how true! More than a few of my older relatives hoard most anything claiming "just wait awhile and it will be worth a fortune"
One uncle collects old tires and car batteries. Another collects scraps of old wood claiming they are "barn wood" and worth a fortune. He is the same one who has a couple of walnut trees in his back yard that are only 20 or 30 years old but they are each worth $10,000 and someone will buy them soon.

[RogerDat]

I personally advocate for always getting a two-fer from stuff I stockpile for tough times. I don't buy multi-week or month freeze dried food packs but will buy canned foods or staples I use on a regular basis. I would rather have metal I can use than a hedge against inflation sitting in a box. Fuel for the camp stove or kerosene heater or propane for the smelting pot.

All things that are useful day to day, all useful in the event of weather related or other temporary disruption.

[MaryB]

Like my 11,000 pound corn stash for heating the house. I will only use about 5,000 pounds this winter unless we have a power outage and I burn 24/7. That will use close to 9,000 pounds then. Right now I only run it when I am awake. At night I let the house cool down to 72 then the natural gas furnace cycles a few times over night.

[starmac]

Cool down to 72??????? How hot do you keep it in the daytime?