Silver - How low will it go?

[waksupi]

and how many silver bars have you used as payment for something?

Bought a set of new tires two years ago.

[Four-Sixty]

Since the title of this thread asks "how low will it go", I would offer up a couple of things to consider.

1) I wonder if we'll see any impact from the aging baby boomers? I imagine that older folks have more experience with silver coins, than younger ones. I think they hold way, way more silver coins than younger folks. A lot of those older folks are doing what older folks due, pass away. I think that the interest in silver will 'pass', to some degree, with them. I've knew an older guy who've had 5 gallon buckets full of junk silver. I bet there is a lot of that stuff salted away that is going to come back on the market. Supply will increase.

2) Another risk is China. Things over there continue to slow. I think their demand will wane.

3) I also hear a lot about how big the derivatives market has gotten. How much of the support/demand for silver exists because of this market?

4) Another risk is deflation. There are a lot of people on the globe today, but they have a lot of stuff. And, a lot of the folks earning a decent wage are having that wage threatened by folks who'll accept a lower wage. There is also the risk of automation/robots as well. I know pretty much everyone says were going to face inflation in the future. I think, however, there is a risk we'll see deflation.

I think it is a good idea to hold some silver/gold to barter with. I would not hold a lot though. I expect silver will go down in price further.

[Cord]

“Does anyone have some sort of reference I can educate myself
on silver coinage and how to buy it for the layman?”

http://www.coinflation.com/
Is a very helpful site for news and reference information.
Always be aware of the down/up bias of the PM haters and the PM lovers.

The Coinflation site has an extremely helpful melt value calculator:
http://www.coinflation.com/coins/sil...alculator.html
You can work with that and get a feel for the silver metal content of singles and rolls.

I use it to make myself a fresh “cheat sheet” on a small card before going to
a shop or show. It helps me remember the expected range of prices for
singles, rolls and bullion coins - you never know what you will see at a show.

For instance, a "Morgan Dollar contains 0.7735 troy ounces of silver
and is valued at $11.28 when silver is at $14.58 per ounce"

But I don't think you will find a Morgan for sale anywhere near that cheap.
.

[deepskyridge]

Here are some sites that I have found helpful:

1. http://www.bullionstacker.com/index.php - lots of discussion of different types of PM's (you may have to create a account)

2. http://www.realcent.org/ - similar site , (you may have to create a account).

3. There are lots of youtube videos on PM's.

Good Luck
Gary

[bangerjim]

banger,

So what is the difference, value wise, from a newly minted coin of 1 Troy ounce silver (maple silver coin or minted eagle silver dollar from, say, jmbullion as listed above) compared to equal Troy ounce of an older silver dollar?

A troy is a troy. The difference is in proving the authenticity and the verification when/if you ever want to move them. There is so much fraud today, old US coins are far more reliable than newly minted bullion.

It is all still silver.

I doubt if there is any confiscation risk with silver bullion like there potentially could be with gold bullion. Pre-1934 gold is "private" sale and is not confiscatable.......if it ever got to that!!!! Elect Hillary and find out!

banger

[Cord]

It seldom happens, but always be ready to buy from someone you know who mentions it.

My local coin shop has 1# coffee cans of loose coins you can pick through to get nice ones
or certain dates, and they charge by the roll. They are generally a little bit high.
They have a tray of "generic rounds" that sometimes contains good collectibles.

A local coin show has competition; the best screaming deals are gone within the first hour
but you can still do well a little later on. The show is 2/3 numismatics and 1/3 bullion or
“junk “dealers, and right now the action is on bullion. Sounds like a gun show, yes?

Third is online dealers with good reputations- You can get very good prices even with
shipping costs, many times you can beat the LCS and the show to buy a dip in price.
Be careful and look for reviews before ordering. Provident, JM Bullion, Goldmart, APMEX,
SD Bullion are good places to start. Compare shipping and C.C fees on all of them.

Fourth is eBay, you can waste a lot of time following auctions only to find that
people will pay crazy amounts sometimes. There are definitely sellers of fake or plated
bars and coins who will carefully word their ads to mislead you, or outright lie to you.
But APMEX sells on eBay, sometimes with special prices lower than their website.

Fifth is Craigslist or Armslist, buyer beware all the way! You can list a firearm on Armslist
and specify that you will take silver coins in trade. If someone responds with interest,
quote them a rate well below spot just like a coin dealer would offer them for the coins.
Call a local shop , see what they offer you, and quote the same or slightly less to the buyer.
People who don’t have enough fiat to buy may have some old coins they don’t care about.

Lastly, Dealers who advertise on TV and radio have very high overhead expenses
and I would not even consider buying from them. Obviously, buy as close to melt as possible.

Make no mistake, ASEs are being counterfeited and you can learn online how to spot them.
Smart people count their stacks in ounces or pieces, not in dollar price - present or past.
At present, silver is very seriously undervalued, in my opinion.
JMHO -YMMV
.

[fatelk]

I bought some silver back in the late '90s when it was well under $5, and think I paid something like $350 for an ounce of gold.

The ironic thing is that my income back then was pathetic, and I would buy a little silver just for fun when I had a little extra money. Over the years I bought a handful of silver and an ounce of gold. Then around 2000 I got a much better job and had money to burn for a while. I stopped buying metals completely by then because it had gone up too much. Five bucks an ounce for silver? Too much!

[rondog]

I love silver, have owned a bunch over the years but have none right now and am too broke to buy any. Hopefully, that may change soon.

I've always bought mine locally from coin shops, I prefer 1oz. .999 bullion rounds and bullion bars, up to 10oz. I had a 100oz. bar once, it was awesome! I'd love to have a stack of 'em.

I wish the price would go back up, I'm holding a bunch of shares of Silver Wheaton (SLW), and it's been taking a beating lately.

[JimmyTheDentist]

For roughly 210 years and with few exceptions prior to the current craziness starting near 2005, the market value of silver has always wobbled around between $1 and $6.

We’ve gone through a Civil War and World Wars and Cold Wars and market crashes, recessions, depressions, assassinations of Presidents and even the fear of nuclear Armageddon . . . none of this, not even abandoning the Gold Standard, was enough to permanently push the value of silver much outside of that five-dollar range.

But something has changed. People - especially people who are presently paying even a little bit of attention to conditions around the whole world - instinctively sense that since about 2005 there’s been something askew . . . something essentially wrong with what we traditionally trusted as reliably valuable.

Silver has never been worth “zero”. And, especially in recent decades, has proven to be a much better store of value than arguably any other "traditional" investment.

Contrast that with our current Federal Reserve Note which is backed by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government . . . whatever the heck that really means . . . how much is that worth to you these days?

Today what is needed is an alternative to what we’ve long considered “normal”.

If you can find “junk silver” - regardless of wherever you might find it - then buy as much of it as you can afford - at any price - and rest easy with your decision.

Jimmy the Dentist

[Handloader109]

I just had to have this 308 .999 2oz silver bullet.

Attachment 145933 Attachment 145934

now that might be worth buying!

[dragon813gt]

now that might be worth buying!

They make a one ounce version that is a 45acp round as well.

[jonp]

Bought a set of new tires two years ago.

Somebody took silver bars for new tires? No kidding!

[jonp]

One thing to consider...Don't buy on the way down. Wait until the market finds the bottom for you, then when it slowly starts back up, buy.
You don't want to catch a "falling knife".

Trying to guess the bottom is a fools game. Dollar cost average on the way down.

[mold maker]

Been my experience that the price will be stable till I buy some. Then it will drop even farther. If I turn down a deal, it will dramatically rise the next day.
I'll do you a favor and report the next time I'm gonna ignore a deal.
No point in both of us missing out.

[tygar]

I used to buy silver when it went under 4 & sold when it went over 5, buy 20$ St. Gaudens at 48-49 & sell at 55.
Times sure have changed!

I've been sitting on a bunch of silver & gold & just havn't been able to talk myself into selling much of it. I did sell a lot of numismatic gold & silver during the climb up but as it turns out - way to early.

[Blacksmith]

For roughly 210 years and with few exceptions prior to the current craziness starting near 2005, the market value of silver has always wobbled around between $1 and $6.

We’ve gone through a Civil War and World Wars and Cold Wars and market crashes, recessions, depressions, assassinations of Presidents and even the fear of nuclear Armageddon . . . none of this, not even abandoning the Gold Standard, was enough to permanently push the value of silver much outside of that five-dollar range.

But something has changed. People - especially people who are presently paying even a little bit of attention to conditions around the whole world - instinctively sense that since about 2005 there’s been something askew . . . something essentially wrong with what we traditionally trusted as reliably valuable.

Silver has never been worth “zero”. And, especially in recent decades, has proven to be a much better store of value than arguably any other "traditional" investment.

Contrast that with our current Federal Reserve Note which is backed by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government . . . whatever the heck that really means . . . how much is that worth to you these days?

Today what is needed is an alternative to what we’ve long considered “normal”.

If you can find “junk silver” - regardless of wherever you might find it - then buy as much of it as you can afford - at any price - and rest easy with your decision.

Jimmy the Dentist

For most of that time the price of silver was controlled by the government same as gold. Not until we stopped printing Silver Certificates and a paper dollar was no longer redeemable in silver was the price allowed to float.

[Four-Sixty]

This is the five year price of silver per Monex. Man, look at that trend line!

I would say that the market views silver as just another asset class - one whose luster has become tarnished. (I could not resist, sorry!)

[waksupi]

J.P. Morgan and a couple other big money concerns have been manipulating the silver market a lot the past few years. Why? Because on paper that they have backing their business, they have billions in silver. In reality, they don't. There was no way they would ever be able to spend assets to catch up on their shortfall, so they continue to drive down the price, and attempt to cover their asses before some has them thrown in prison.

[MaryB]

Yeah the so called "investigations" that found no manipulation were a total joke. Watch for the 8:30AM(CST) Bounce or fall, usually the day of the jobs reports they drop the price by flooding the system with fake orders then turn around 2-3 days later and use fake orders to force the price back up!

[rush1886]

Been my experience that the price will be stable till I buy some. Then it will drop even farther. If I turn down a deal, it will dramatically rise the next day.
I'll do you a favor and report the next time I'm gonna ignore a deal.
No point in both of us missing out.

I'll be waiting!