Dave since you don't like theory, then you really have to answer the question on your own. Like Kurt said, nose shape, powder brand, granulation and even batch may matter. So will many other things - all just small additional effects but that's what you need to consider if you want a "perfect" answer, so you will have to get it empirically.
The good news is that paper patches can tell you something about this more easily than other bullets. Your patches will give you clues. Look for burn through in the grooves, where hot gasses jet past the wad and bullet before it bumps up (if it bumps up) and burn the patches. If this is really severe, you will get major gas cutting and leading but the patches will tell you even without the bullet to look at.
Here is a relatively is what relatively minor blow-by looks like on a patch - thanks to Larry Talley, as I recall.