Why 22lr are bought up for ?

[rbuck351]

I like to keep my fingers in every pie that comes along. I picked up a 180lb crossbow. I already have a Beeman R2 a couple of compound bows and a recurve. I also have been a Jack of all trades most of my life including mechanic, welder, machinist, carpenter, electrician, plumber and have been stocking many of the things I think will be important if our money becomes low grade toilet paper or there is just nothing to buy. The next step is my retirement farm far enough out of town to be difficult to get to. Hope it doesn't happen but don't want to be caught not ready. I still need a flint lock rifle though.

[jlchucker]

So you are agreeing that the supply is unable to accommodate spikes in demand.

Yes, in a way--but to take it a step further, this should have all been corrected by the producers by now. And I'm speaking as someone who understands the complexities of production control in a just-in-time environment. That sort of thing gets WAY out of control if marketing doesn't keep up with forecasting. What gets out of control, simply put, is not only the manufacturing schedules for finished product, but for the entire bill of materials that go into that product--all the way back to raw materials. Someone hasn't been keeping up every day with forecasting changes in demand, and now it's spread all the way back into shortages for components. Some of those components, i.e brass (to you and I in the form of reloadable new cartridge cases), primers, various powders, bullets, etc. are now quickly getting to be in short supply to retailers, and eventually us buyers. There's been a "spike", yes. But the industry didn't keep up with forecasting and production control. To me, it's why you go to the gunshops and still see some powders, like Unique for example, out of stock, while other, slower-moving powders, remain available. Production in a well-run manufacturing facility is entirely dependent upon the forecast for finished goods out the door--everything that goes into making that finished product as it sits on a dealer's shelf gets ordered and produced based upon that. The "spike" you refer to, Imashooter, should have been addressed by the manufacturers by now. If some external force is continuously screwing with the demand on an ongoing basis, then that's a whole other thing--it would mean that the "external force" is causing demand to change. Now--either the ammo industry has a very out-of-date manufacturing control process (by about 30 years), or somebody (and I wonder who) is making sure that this so-called "spike" gets prolonged. This has been going on for a few months too long now, and is too widespread IMO, to just be written off as a "spike".

[jlchucker]

Yes, in a way--but to take it a step further, this should have all been corrected by the producers by now. And I'm speaking as someone who understands the complexities of production control in a just-in-time environment. That sort of thing gets WAY out of control if marketing doesn't keep up with forecasting. What gets out of control, simply put, is not only the manufacturing schedules for finished product, but for the entire bill of materials that go into that product--all the way back to raw materials. Someone hasn't been keeping up every day with forecasting changes in demand, and now it's spread all the way back into shortages for components. Some of those components, i.e brass (to you and I in the form of reloadable new cartridge cases), primers, various powders, bullets, etc. are now quickly getting to be in short supply to retailers, and eventually us buyers. There's been a "spike", yes. But the industry didn't keep up with forecasting and production control. To me, it's why you go to the gunshops and still see some powders, like Unique for example, out of stock, while other, slower-moving powders, remain available. Production in a well-run manufacturing facility is entirely dependent upon the forecast for finished goods out the door--everything that goes into making that finished product as it sits on a dealer's shelf gets ordered and produced based upon that. The "spike" you refer to, Imashooter, should have been addressed by the manufacturers by now. If some external force is continuously screwing with the demand on an ongoing basis, then that's a whole other thing--it would mean that the "external force" is causing demand to change. Now--either the ammo industry has a very out-of-date manufacturing control process (by about 30 years), or somebody (and I wonder who) is making sure that this so-called "spike" gets prolonged. This has been going on for a few months too long now, and is too widespread IMO, to just be written off as a "spike".

Just to take it a step further--the way these spikes can be messed with is to mess with the availability and/or lead time of the components that go into making the finished product themselve. A big buy of finished ammo by Homeland Security or some other part of Obamanation would be a poor way of doing it. More "bang for the buck" could theoretically jam up production if demand and/or supply for a critical component of the finished product was messed with. A component (or component) such as one or more of the chemicals that go into making primer mix, or one or more grades of powder. That's the scarey part--and it's the way some unscrupulous entity can turn a "spike" into something much more widespread, longer lasting, and harder to detect. Factories depend on placing orders for components these days by starting with demand for finished product, which "explodes" into demand for all of the components, with lead times for each component factored in. Screwing with the lead times or availability of one component that gets used in lots of calibers, primers, or grades of powder would have a huge effect. Now--are there "external forces" causing all of this at play here? This inquiring mind is starting to wonder.

[imashooter2]

Yes, in a way--but to take it a step further, this should have all been corrected by the producers by now. And I'm speaking as someone who understands the complexities of production control in a just-in-time environment. That sort of thing gets WAY out of control if marketing doesn't keep up with forecasting. What gets out of control, simply put, is not only the manufacturing schedules for finished product, but for the entire bill of materials that go into that product--all the way back to raw materials. Someone hasn't been keeping up every day with forecasting changes in demand, and now it's spread all the way back into shortages for components. Some of those components, i.e brass (to you and I in the form of reloadable new cartridge cases), primers, various powders, bullets, etc. are now quickly getting to be in short supply to retailers, and eventually us buyers. There's been a "spike", yes. But the industry didn't keep up with forecasting and production control. To me, it's why you go to the gunshops and still see some powders, like Unique for example, out of stock, while other, slower-moving powders, remain available. Production in a well-run manufacturing facility is entirely dependent upon the forecast for finished goods out the door--everything that goes into making that finished product as it sits on a dealer's shelf gets ordered and produced based upon that. The "spike" you refer to, Imashooter, should have been addressed by the manufacturers by now. If some external force is continuously screwing with the demand on an ongoing basis, then that's a whole other thing--it would mean that the "external force" is causing demand to change. Now--either the ammo industry has a very out-of-date manufacturing control process (by about 30 years), or somebody (and I wonder who) is making sure that this so-called "spike" gets prolonged. This has been going on for a few months too long now, and is too widespread IMO, to just be written off as a "spike".

It could only be corrected if the producers had available capacity. Absent the ability to double production, a forecast of double demand does little.

[w0fms]

If one goes and looks at the NICS website and looks at the "record week" of 12/17-12/23/2012 at 953,613 checks alone, one can assume that in reality it's not a million current owners of 22LR that killed the supply chain. It's probably a million NEW owners of 22LR's that did it along with another million who thought an extra brick was a good idea. If you take the top five weeks, BTW, you are looking at about 3.4 million checks. All since Newtown.

Nice Job Democrats and Obama. Great job selling firearms! A lot of new people into the hobby is a good thing. We need to welcome them in with open arms.

[jlchucker]

It could only be corrected if the producers had available capacity. Absent the ability to double production, a forecast of double demand does little.

Up-to-date forecasts are always needed to point out projected capacity bottlenecks at each workcenter, allowing for management to decide when, where, and how to increase capacity at those identified workcenters, or to temporarily subcontract for some of those bottlenecked operations to be performed by vendors.

[imashooter2]

Up-to-date forecasts are always needed to point out projected capacity bottlenecks at each workcenter, allowing for management to decide when, where, and how to increase capacity at those identified workcenters, or to temporarily subcontract for some of those bottlenecked operations to be performed by vendors.

LOL! We both know how Lean Manufacturing works and we both know that there is no way that the system could cope with the unprecedented demand. Further, we both know that there are no subcontractors for ammunition manufacture. What point are you trying to make?

[Swamp Man]

Yeah, I always laugh when I hear one of those news reports. Only my closest friends and family get to see my little stockpile. They used to make fun of me before this latest shortage, guess who is smiling now?

Well you have already made a BIG mistake. NEVER show your hand/stockpile to ANYONE other then those who will be using it. My wife knows I have a stock but not even she has seen it she knows where it's at if she needs it but has NO idea what all I have.

[RP]

Well just my thoughts on this, I move around a lot and stop by a few gun shops when I can. So to speak I am a people watcher and the local shop I go for lunch since I am a cheap skate I can get a drink and candy bar for 1.10 lol. I sit at the end of the counter and see the same people everyday buying ammo since there is a limits on how many. They get as much as they can everyday and new people come in and get all they can. They don't even asked the price if he has it out they buy it. So as long as people all over are doing the same thing supplies will be low. I think in a few more months things will slow down supply will build back up and all the back ordered ammo (so they are on the list ) will start being canceled. Just my thoughts I noticed AR 15s are back on the racks and are starting to get dust on them I think ammo will soon follow if nothing happens. I live in the south and if they say snow all the milk and bread in the stores is gone fast and I never seen the snow keep you from moving more than three days. Kind of the same thing. So when supplies are back and prices are down stock up it will happen again.