Originally Posted by
jlchucker
Yes, in a way--but to take it a step further, this should have all been corrected by the producers by now. And I'm speaking as someone who understands the complexities of production control in a just-in-time environment. That sort of thing gets WAY out of control if marketing doesn't keep up with forecasting. What gets out of control, simply put, is not only the manufacturing schedules for finished product, but for the entire bill of materials that go into that product--all the way back to raw materials. Someone hasn't been keeping up every day with forecasting changes in demand, and now it's spread all the way back into shortages for components. Some of those components, i.e brass (to you and I in the form of reloadable new cartridge cases), primers, various powders, bullets, etc. are now quickly getting to be in short supply to retailers, and eventually us buyers. There's been a "spike", yes. But the industry didn't keep up with forecasting and production control. To me, it's why you go to the gunshops and still see some powders, like Unique for example, out of stock, while other, slower-moving powders, remain available. Production in a well-run manufacturing facility is entirely dependent upon the forecast for finished goods out the door--everything that goes into making that finished product as it sits on a dealer's shelf gets ordered and produced based upon that. The "spike" you refer to, Imashooter, should have been addressed by the manufacturers by now. If some external force is continuously screwing with the demand on an ongoing basis, then that's a whole other thing--it would mean that the "external force" is causing demand to change. Now--either the ammo industry has a very out-of-date manufacturing control process (by about 30 years), or somebody (and I wonder who) is making sure that this so-called "spike" gets prolonged. This has been going on for a few months too long now, and is too widespread IMO, to just be written off as a "spike".