How long do you think this supply issue is going to last?

[500MAG]

I have been working on my lead hoard so diligently, I failed to properly stock up on primers. The first thing I did, after the Sandy Hook shooting, was to order another AR. Didn't worry about ammo and didn't think about primers. Why the run on primers? Are they requiring background checks on primers in NY? Or is that the fear? How long do you think the stock outages will last?

[grimace1]

After Obama's first election it took about eight months for supplies of most components to come back to normal. I'd imagine it will take at least that long this time, if not a year.

[Crusty Deary Ol'Coot]

Well, 500mag.,

Part of the problem is too many people this day and age live hand to mouth.

Meaning they look little towards the future, and instead go buy the can of soup when needed rather then taking it from their pantry and then buying to restock the pantry.

Same with components.

I have for years, made it a habit to be working on a brick of a thousand primers with 1 or more fresh/unopened ones backing it up.

Does that mean I won't buy more if I see them on the dealers shelf, NO WAY!!, but I can shoot and keep shooting for a goodly length of time with my normal stock on hand.

Well, some folk are the hand to mouth type, and they are out in the cold now.

Don't greave for them, it is a problem many smart folk aren't having.

The ones who may be hurting really bad now, through no fault of their own, are the new folk just getting started or buying a new firearm, and those who consume huge amounts of ammo for practice and competition.

However, as to your question on how long it will last ---------------- After the last obamanation, things were barley back to normal, kinda/maybe, in 2 1/2 - 3 years, and the prices never did come back to pre-obamanation levels.

And I live less then an hours drive from Speer & CCI

I really expect it to be much worse this time as D.C. and the left wings folk are running wild and not likely to slow down any time soon.

You can bet the manufactures are pumping out the product as fast as they can, and one thing that just may ????? - time will tell - help, is the fact that it has only been 4 years since the last obamanation and "possibly" ???? some manufactures may have increased their capacity since the first one.

I'm seeing a fair amount of .223 ammo on a local classified web site, and seems some - not all - of the prices aren't even too bad. The AR rifles are out of sight, price wise!

Hang on, this may be a really bumpy ride.

Crusty Deary Ol'Coot

[dragon813gt]

Barring any more shootings or events that will set the media world on fire. Everything should back to normal supply wise by the end of the summer. The manufacturers want to reap profits just as much as we want to buy their products. Now pricing in a few months is still up in the air. prices typically take a long time to come back down from ridiculous highs. I'm still waiting for it to happen with gasoline.

Hoarders don't help the situation. Someone posted on another board about how he has a twenty year supply and he's still buying cases of everything he can find. I get not living hand to mouth which is why I have a stockpile that will keep me shooting for a long time. But when you have decades of supplies you have to start thinking about if you're right in the head.

New shooters are part of the reason that stock is so low. They come in and need to buy everything. Same with new reloaders. I was laughing at some of the conversations I overheard at Cabela's two weeks ago. If you can't figure out which dies you need when they're clearly labeled on the box, and a manual describes them all in detail, you shouldn't attempt to reload.

[Kevin Rohrer]

The shortage is mostly due to the seasonal slowdown by manufacturers. Give them a month to ramp-up production and refill the supply chain, and all will be well.

I will also say that the lack of supply is not universal. I can find anything I want at normal prices in my area.

[LUBEDUDE]

The shortage is mostly due to the seasonal slowdown by manufacturers. Give them a month to ramp-up production and refill the supply chain, and all will be well.

Also keep in mind any smart business will let inventories drops at fiscal year end, so as not to pay taxes on inventory. Many corporations fiscal year end is Sept or Dec.

This means if the manufacturer and wholesaler let inventories drop, it's awful hard for Mr Retailer to get product.

You'll just have to wait for the pipeline to start trickling and eventually fill up again.

[Crusty Deary Ol'Coot]

Hope you folks are correct, but it didn't happen after the last obamanation, and I don't think it will this time.

As said earlier, live less then an hours drive from CCI & Speer and it took a couple years before things began to show any SIGN of possible marked improvement.

The prices never came back below about 19 dollars for a brick of Blazers, and before the obamanation, it was 9 to 10 dollars.

Will be having a man from Speer/CCI speaking to a men's group at my church in about a month, so will be interesting to see what the insiders have to say.

Crusty Deary Ol'Coot

[L1A1Rocker]

How long? Provided that all this gun control **** goes no where and is dropped, about a year.

[I'll Make Mine]

Hey, Crusty, I'd just like to point out that some folks live hand to mouth because they can't spare enough from barely getting by to stock up ahead on anything -- like not being able to afford a Costco membership because it won't save back the full cost on the first trip (and you can't spare anything from the grocery budget if it doesn't). Then again, some of us are just getting back into this after many years away, and don't have any stock of powder or primers because our last purchase of those items was twenty-five years and half a dozen moves ago.

[LUBEDUDE]

Well Crusty, you will notice that I did not put a time frame on my statements. However I do tend to side with you. With this huge panic going on, any supply trickling in will get sucked up so fast like a thirsty man in the desert getting his final drops out of his canteen. This will make stocking up on shelves quite difficult for some time.

[ReloaderFred]

I got home Friday night from the SHOT Show in Las Vegas. To give you an example of the situation, Fiocchi has already sold their entire loaded ammunition production of both their U.S. and Italian ammunition plants for the year, $134,000,000.00 worth. They weren't taking any new orders, period. I was able to place an order for 20,000 Fiocchi shotgun primers from one of the distributors, but no distributor I talked to has any rifle or pistol primers in stock. These aren't dealers, they're the distributors the dealers get their stock from.

I've always tried to keep a two year supply of primers on hand, since without primers, bullets are fishing weights and powder is fertilizer........ I'm hoping my two year supply will be enough, since my supplier has been waiting for his primer order from last August, and the shipment he got in July was from an order he placed the previous January. He normally orders in increments of 500,000 primers, but the shipment he got in July was only half of what he ordered.

My guess, based on this past year, and what I heard at the SHOT Show, is at least two years before it gets back to somewhat "normal", whatever that is.....

Hope this helps.

Fred

[Love Life]

I would say at least a year unless any legislation is squashed.

[Crusty Deary Ol'Coot]

I think that Fred is closer then most on his estimate, and I wonder just how any of us can think it will be any better then what the last obamanation struck 4 years ago.

This situation already makes what happened 4 years ago seem like a party and I just rec'd a notice a bit ago, that the government itself is responsible for much of the shortage, due to the volumn they are buying state side, not even considering military.

Sure hope the info was WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Crusty Deary Ol'Coot

[r1kk1]

Someone did a timeline showing component shortages through the last two or three decades. I was living in Montana during gulf war and Clinton. Every time there is a shortage, my wife and I just don't get to shoot as much as we like. Last Obama election, shotgun primers were very scarce. Prices keep going up and watch gun broker. Record prices will be set again by some seller. I have enough stuff to get me through this shortage. I will not pay price gouging rates.

For those who are starting to reload or getting back, hang on as this will not be your first rodeo as history has shown. I teach more people how to reload during shortages than any other time.

Take care and good luck,

r1kk1

[jmorris]

I'm hoping my two year supply will be enough, since my supplier has been waiting for his primer order from last August, and the shipment he got in July was from an order he placed the previous January. He normally orders in increments of 500,000 primers, but the shipment he got in July was only half of what he ordered.

250,000 primers doesn't sound like much for a supplier, heck I have over 50k for myself. Keep an eye on powder valley and the other larger outlets. They still have LP, LPM, LR and LRM primers in stock despite the panic.

[novalty]

I'd say things should start to settle down somewhere around April 15th. Should see a flood of NIB, or LNIB guns on the market around then.

[EDG]

It is hard to say but as long as Obama is in office we could see this issue come back over and over if there are more atrocities by nut cases. So I would say it is possible that it will last 2 to 4 years.

[wantoutofca]

^ this

Hopefully this term doesn't measure in decades.

[1hole]

How long do you think this supply issue is going to last?

I asked my barber. He said his next door neighbor's brother-in-law's plumber's cousin said it will be over at 4:40 pm, EST, on July 18. If that's wrong I don't have anything else to go on so I won't guess.

[Crusty Deary Ol'Coot]

I was in Lewiston, Ideeeeeho today, (home of CCI & Speer) and stopped in at the Black Sheep to see how their stock was holding up.

Zero/zip on any AR or 10/22 rifles, but good many rifles and handguns available, Lots of bullets "J" type, some primers, powder and .22 Blazers at the best price I have seen for awhile.

Just under 160 Dollars per case (10 - 525count boxes) limit of one case per customer pre day.

The Best price I'd seen since the first obamanation was about 19 dollars for a brick of 500, so $16 for 525 looked pretty good.

One of the counter people said they were smart enough to buy up stock before hand, so here's hoping that others did the same, as that would help cut this obamanation off at the knees.

Crusty Deary Ol'Coot