Will the Gun Market Collapse Soon?

[Four-Sixty]

I've been wondering, with all the coming head-winds, what kind of effect it will have on the gun market, and gun prices. What are your thoughts?

What I foresee happening is:

1) Romney will win the White House. Ryan is outspoken about his belief in gun rights. Gun Owners will feel safe, and turn their resources to buying things other than guns to prepare for a "gun grab". The black rifle market will dry up.

2) A serious dialogue will begin about our Nation's debt crisis. Credit will contract. Attitutudes about "I gotta have it now" will wane in favor of people saving to "earn what they buy". In short, frugalness will be more widespread diminishing the demand for finer, and otherwise more expensive arms.

3) Baby Boomers will dump collections on the market in droves. The supply of used arms will go up due to Baby Boomers needing to supplement their retirements, to pay for medical bills and keep the guns out of the hands of their kids who are stupid.

4) Manufacturers who expanded operations to meet red-hot demand will have excess capacity. They introduce new, more economical, models further crowding supply of the cheaper arms.

5) We'll live past December 21, 2012. No Zombies will come. The poles don't shift. It's yet another day. All these people who fantasize about shooting their zombified neighbors will come to accept it'll never happen. Now they have an AR-15 or a shotgun collecting dust. They just foundout their girlfriend (notice I did not say Wife) is pregnant, and now they need some cash...

What goes up, must come down. I recall listening on my car radio to how fast house prices were going up. I remember watching 20 year olds, with no job, buy homes in California for $450,000 with the hopes of remodeling them and reselling them for $600,000. I think there is a touch of that madness in this market everytime I see new numbers about how many guns were sold this year, this month etc.

What do you folks think?

[Love Life]

I don't see it happening anytime soon.

The firearms and related markets won't crash, but should halt once they reach the point where the market won't bear the price anymore.

[Char-Gar]

If a person pays fair market price for a gun, it will increase in value at least to deal with inflaction. Buying firearms for an investment is not a good idea, unless you are buying those few high grade investment grade antique or historic firearms. A good rule of thumb, is it is cost less than $25,000 it isn't investment grade.

[Four-Sixty]

I guess what I feel is; get out of debt & save your cash because the gun lover's buying opportunity of a life-time is coming right up!

[shdwlkr]

The firearm industry is already tanking.
Look at Remington and Marlin both used to make good firearms now they are in question of making even fair firearms.
Winchester is much smaller than it used to be, many firearms are made under winchester name in Japan.
The black gun industry will continue for as long as they are made and many can buy them.

As for the baby boomers selling their collections I don't see that being a big issue as when and if they come up for sale the owner will most likely be dead and no one left in the family wants the firearms.

What you want to wonder is what happens if there is no money, no fuel, no electricity, no food that you can afford to buy.

[JonB_in_Glencoe]

Um, after Clinton left office (but before 9/11) the gun market didn't crash.
this was also right after Y2K, and all those preppers didn't dump their guns
onto the market after "nothing happened" either.

The only thing I tend to worry about is when Obama or the like finally get to ban guns,
then having more than one or two becomes more of a liabilty then an asset...unless
that is the begining of the revolution ?
Jon

[gray wolf]

Some will sell, some will become complacent,
in the end it will balance out and be as usual.
But the threat to our 2nd. will live on, don't think Mr. MIT or Ryan will be the factor that decides what you keep.

[ErikO]

With the current path for my finances, March would be a great time for the bottom to drop out of the firearms market.

[tomme boy]

I feel the next big thing is when all of the baby boomers start taking out their 401s an bonds, there is going to be a huge market crash. Then they are going to blame it on the Republicans because that is what they are going to be told who to blame.

[Wayne Smith]

It's already happening. Individual savings rates are up, consumer debt is leveling off. Any time there is a balloon it will collapse, how fast and completely it collapses is the issue, not if it will. All this is under Obama. Some people are waking up, will it be enough?

Yes, people are retiring, dying, and collections have already hit the auction market. You are really talking about when it hits your local gun store and pawn shop. However, how likely is it that we will be saying, "I need to save, not spend" at that point?

[bob208]

lets look at it this way. remember all the $15-20 mausers, enfields and sprigfields. where are they? i go to a gun show see one or two of each. not table after table of each. where did they all go? not wore out and throughed away in the junk. how about all the m1 carbines that were every where now you don't even see one. even the single shot .22 rifles and the singleshot shot guns as many as were made should be a barrel full in every gun shop for sale.

[largom]

I will not worry about it UNLESS Obama gets re-elected. Then all hell will break loose. It is probable that 3 to 5 new supreme court judges will be appointed during the next 4 years. If the democrats get to pick the judges we will be in deep trouble, not only with guns but all aspects of our lives.

Larry

[M-Tecs]

I really thought after Y2K I could find a nice generator cheap. That never happened. I also don’t believe it will happen with firearms

UNLESS Obama gets re-elected. Then all hell will break loose. It is probable that 3 to 5 new supreme court judges will be appointed during the next 4 years. If the democrats get to pick the judges we will be in deep trouble, not only with guns but all aspects of our lives.

[376Steyr]

Guns are pretty good assets. They don't take up much space, are easy to transport, and can be turned into cash quickly. In the Red states they make up a fair portion of the inheiritances that the government and the lawyers never find out about. I don't foresee a glut of slightly used guns on the market. I do predict that demand is going to slightly decrease, the big factories will get caught up with their orders, and the smaller firms that have been churning out 1911's and AR s will be winnowed out.

[oneokie]

I guess what I feel is; get out of debt & save your cash because the gun lover's buying opportunity of a life-time is coming right up!

Getting out of debt should be the # 1 priority.
Saving cash is a less than an even proposition because the value of the Dollar is in a free fall and will most likely continue even after Romney wins. Any spare cash should be invested in a diverse selection of goods.

[Four-Sixty]

Any spare cash should be invested in a diverse selection of goods.

I've had the same thought for awhile.

I also think that it could be better to have things to barter with instead of cash. Some bartering goods maybe,

1) Gas
2) Food and cooking gas, charcoal, etc.
3) Water and the means to store it
4) Ammo

[GREENCOUNTYPETE]

nope , we add 500 new CC license holders every week , that is just our state , that is got to drive the demand for carry pieces of at least 200-300 a week

one of the few guns that does wear out , is the piece carried every day

then there is the constant stream of needing the newer smaller lighter piece

[starmac]

Just curious, when was the last gun market crash.

[GREENCOUNTYPETE]

Just curious, when was the last gun market crash.

not sure it was a crash , but in 1947 there suddenly became millions of primer and pounds of powder , guns , parts and such available at surplus rates , that carried us thru the 1960s or beyond

but since they will not be selling the current service rifles when they return from the middle east , there will be no surplus rifles or pistols this time , we might see a little powder or some loaded ammo but i don't figure much

[looseprojectile]

There are several that I want though.

I can cast and load for virtually any firearm.

When I think about investing for the coming crash??? -- I am thinking about whisky and tobacco.

The problem with that is, how are you going to know what the quality of your stash is if you don't sample it?

Dammed if you do. dammed if you don't.

I have never seen firearms go down in value in the long term. [ 5 or 10 years].

In my lifetime I have seen a pack of cigarets go from 9 cents to over 9 bucks.
Whisky [or vodka] doubled or tripled in cost, not so much of an increase, but just wait.

I think I will take the wait and see route .





Life is good