OK, so it looks like a good recipe for black powder is:
http://www.musketeer.ch/blackpowder/recipe.html
100 parts potassium nitrate
18 parts charcoal
16 parts sulfur
So if you want to know how much of each ingredient to make, say, 10 pounds of black powder, this should do the trick:
10 lb = X saltpeter + .18(X) charcoal + .16(X) sulfur
10 lb = X(1 + .18 + .16)
10 lb = X(1.34)
X = 10/1.34
X = 7.46
So we can see then that for 10 pounds of black powder you would need:
7.46 pounds saltpeter
7.46(.18) pounds charcoal = 1.34 pounds charcoal
7.46(.16) pounds sulfur = 1.19 pounds sulfur
Sourcing materials as follows:
http://www.customcharcoal.com/willow-lump-charcoal.html
8 pounds of black willow charcoal shipped for $39.99. You can only buy it in 8 pound sacks so I am sourcing the other materials assuming you have 8 pounds of charcoal.
To consume 8 pounds of charcoal, you would need about 45 pounds of Potassium Nitrate and about 8 pounds of Sulfur (rounding up to nearest pound).
http://www.hobbychemicalsupply.com/potassium-nitrate/
http://www.hobbychemicalsupply.com/sulfur-powder/
45 pounds of Potassium Nitrate + 8 pounds of Sulfur shipped for $167.25
This works out to $207.24 for sufficient materials to manufacture about 61 pounds of black powder.
This works out to about $3.40 per pound.
I currently can purchase Goex from one local gun store that carries it for $26 per pound. 10 pounds of Goex from Powder Inc (
https://www.powderinc.com/catalog/order.htm) will cost you $200.50, or $20.05 per pound, shipped. 25 pounds will cost you $405 or $16.20 per pound, shipped.
So you can manufacture your own for about 17% to 21% of the cost of buying it.
It would be interesting to see someone take one of the Harbor Freight drums and load it with a typical charge and rolling balls and deliberately ignite it electrically and video the results, so that everyone can see the explosion/damage potential. I don't know how much containment the tumbler will offer before it ruptures and just allows the powder to burn off. But it would be good to see this in a controlled and isolated experiment so that others could gauge the risk. I live in a residential neighborhood. I'd put my tumbler off along my back fence on my property, but would this send my back fence into the neighbor's house 50 yards away?
Steve