shortages to get worse

[tmak]

Hello all and sorry for the bad news but my crystal ball was cleared up a little bit this morning and I don't think things look to good. I've kept quiet about my job for a reason I'm a manufactures sales rep. I seam to like you all so I should tell you all that there will be a shortage of hunting ammo come this fall. I know most if not of us seldom if ever shoot factory but there are a lot that do. Come fall there will be no ammo well very little at best and that's going to put a big strain on the already strained reloading industries. Whether or not you believe me let it be said that you all have been given a heads up. Get what you may need for the next year while we can. If this reads strange I typed it on my blackberry.

[Sprue]

I'll comment more when I get back from the three area Walmarts...might as well hit the other *mart stores too while I'm at it.....gotta run now.

[fredj338]

This wouldn't surprise me. There is so little amm available out there. I would think the hoarders would have spent all their money by now, same for reloading components.

[tmak]

Ok now that I'm to a full sized key board I will explain a little more. One of my accounts has 5 warehouses that covers the entire country. I was talking with their fall good buyer today and he was explaining to me the fact that they have 0 30-06 on hand and thousands of boxes on back order. Now i know thats only one of many calibers but it has always been the standard by which ammo sales are judged. If those that buy lots and shoot little get just a little nervous it will be a mess. Now with that said the prediction for pistol ammo is to become more available. The prediction from the industry is shortages in all things reloading. again just a little heads up for those of us that use what we buy and don't just have ammo cans filled.

[leadman]

It would be great if the people than would normally buy a box or 2 for the fall hunts would do that rather than buy all they can. I think people are too worried about what the future will bring to do this.
I've overheard conversations at the range among several shooters planning where to search for ammo so they can shoot again. Like small battle plans, everyone was assigned an area of town to hit certain stores. Even plans on how much to pay and what credit cards to use.
Unbelievable. I quess you do what ya gotta do.

[anachronism]

This wouldn't surprise me. There is so little amm available out there. I would think the hoarders would have spent all their money by now, same for reloading components.

Two little words that empower hoarders everywhere... "Charge it!"

Something I need to add. I hope I'm wrong, but this could be a very nasty winter if the influenza thing takes off & our economy gets any worse. I'd suggest setting aside some extra food & other necessities before everyone else thinks of the same thing. It's just a suggestion, please feel free to ignore it as the ramblings of a crazy paranoid if you want.

[Blammer]

my local wally world and the Rex's sporting shop down the street have pleanty of ammo.

I was in another gunshop in Kernersville NC and they had LOTS of ammo, and were unpacking more as I was there.

I'm actually seeing the ammo situation get better not worse.

[outdoorfan]

Two little words that empower hoarders everywhere... "Charge it!"

Something I need to add. I hope I'm wrong, but this could be a very nasty winter if the influenza thing takes off & our economy gets any worse. I'd suggest setting aside some extra food & other necessities before everyone else thinks of the same thing. It's just a suggestion, please feel free to ignore it as the ramblings of a crazy paranoid if you want.

Me thinks much the same way. I'm not worried about the "common flu", however, but other man-made ones are a different story.

[randyrat]

I've seen some ammo trickling in more now than 6 months ago. "Trickling" is the key word here. It's not flowing in like it should.
I'm doomed if i can't get 1000 rds for Bullseye shooting (22 cal) this fall, it could be a long winter.

[rhubarb]

I sell steel. Steel prices are going up in the next quarter. Availability is already spotty and will likely be worse.

Buy it while you can and it's still cheap!

[Sprue]

In all seriousness... I've got a little less than a full bag of (hunting) shot. So I think I've enough to last me and the boy several seasons.

As for the 209 primer availability though, its always been on the shelves throughout this past and current fiasco.

Agreed - that ammo and components are slowly hitting the shelves once again. But wouldn't it be another blow, to us, if only the manufactures were to loosen their belts a little to only tighten them up again for another round or bout of craziness. Sounds logical in this day and time.

I'll just have to make sure that we have enough Pop Corn, sit back and watch if it comes to that again.

BTW - I just hauled off six thirty-gallon trash bags of Pop Cans yesterday, I sure miss the days when they brought 90 cent a lb. So metal prices are going up ehh ?

[Rusty W]

I haven't bought a factory round of ammo except for 22lr since the early 90's. When I was younger, in my teens and early 20's I thought if I had a couple box's of ammo for my 30/30 and a brick of 22's I was set. Then I started handloading for a 45 Blackhawk and my whole outlook about guns and ammo was changed. They both started to multiply. I have thousands of rounds for several different calibers and still wonder if it's "enough". I'm still young, 38, and hopefully have a long way to go so I can shoot up some of this ammo. Then I start thinking about the shortages and price increase's of both componets and factory ammo, so I shoot less and reload less. Guess I'll have to take up fishing again.

[tmak]

I'm not saying what I am for the fear factor. And you are all correct in what you are seeing on the shelfs ammo primers powder and brass loosining up. What i'm talking about is in the next 60 to 90 days. Things are empty in the distridution chains and its not looing like it going to get any better. I will eat crow cold or hot your choice but I'm pretty sure i will not need to. Besides if I'm wrong i can buy what i want when i want.

[Cowboy5780]

Here the local Walmart's have limited ammo to 6 boxes per person per day for what good it does.. All the local flea market sellers go in and buy it and take it to the flea market and sell Winchester white box in the average of 50 bucks. I had it in the back of my mind you had to have some sorta ffl to sell ammo but i may be wrong.

[finishman2000]

i to was at a flea market last sun morning and saw alot of wally world ammo for sale. most was marked up twice what they paid for it. you know what? not selling at all. I had to return later with my truck to pick something up and did another quick walk around. again not a single box sold. a few months ago people would have sucked it right up, now not so. i think that is a good sign becuase if they can't sell they won't buy more which will leave it on the shelf.

[jameslovesjammie]

I have been keeping tabs on ammo availability in our area. I just got back from Walmart. Bought 2 Winchester 500 round bulk packs of .22 ammo (the first I've seen in months). Last week I bought 2 boxes of the Federal Automatch there. Both shelves were gone the next day. .30-06, .308, .30-30 and .223 ammo were quite prevelant, as was .270 Winchester. No .22-250 or .243.

As I was leaving, I did notice a pallet of sporting goods boxes to be stocked. When I walked over to it, the boxes were marked Federal Cartridge and Winchester, so they did have more to put away.

[Green Frog]

I was told last year that Federal had discontinued the production of that Automatch ammo. It would be a very good thing if that reasonably priced and reasonably accurate ammo were readily available for casual target shooting. I got surprisingly good results with it, so I guess I'll start looking for it here in Central VA again. [smilie=2:

"Hope springs eternal..." :coffeecom

Froggie

[jameslovesjammie]

I just checked Federal's website and you're right! They don't list it at all. It's a shame, as it worked quite well in my Sig Trailside. Wish I would have bought more, now.

[high standard 40]

I looked at Federal's website yesterday and Automatch was listed. Stock number is AM22.

Just checked again and yep, still there.

[Treetop]

Hello all and sorry for the bad news but my crystal ball was cleared up a little bit this morning and I don't think things look to good. I've kept quiet about my job for a reason I'm a manufactures sales rep. I seam to like you all so I should tell you all that there will be a shortage of hunting ammo come this fall. I know most if not of us seldom if ever shoot factory but there are a lot that do. Come fall there will be no ammo well very little at best and that's going to put a big strain on the already strained reloading industries. Whether or not you believe me let it be said that you all have been given a heads up. Get what you may need for the next year while we can. If this reads strange I typed it on my blackberry.

First of all, thanks for the "heads up", tmak. I always pay attention to the industry insiders because they have a more "global", overall picture of the status of ammo and components. While I enjoy reading about different poster's experiences at their local ammo retailers, these "microcosms" do not paint a conclusive picture re: the future supply of ammo and components.

Personally, I "hoarded" back when ammo and components were plentiful, so I can afford to wait this situation out, that is, if there is and end to it...

[Shiloh]

Bought another brick of .22 LR to add to the stash. Wal-Mart and Fleet Farm have it and plenty more. I saw some .40 S&W on the shelves. about 7 boxes. Also bought a brick of WSP Primers. Things seem to be loosening up, at least starting to a little.

Shiloh

[jameslovesjammie]

I looked at Federal's website yesterday and Automatch was listed. Stock number is AM22.

Just checked again and yep, still there.

Just looked there for the AM22 instead of AutoMatch. It's there! But it looks like they changed it to the Champion Target line instead of its own. Thanks for the hint!

[zardoz]

Another encouragement from here in Tennessee.

A small rural sportmans shop I stop in, maybe once a month, has been out of primers for the last 4 or 5 months.

I walked in today after work, and asked and finally got the "yes" answer. They had a few cases in, and wanted 39.99 for 1000. I only bought 1000 small pistol, but may stop in again tomorrow and buy another 1000.

They have a gun show tomorrow about an hours drive from here, and I feel compelled to go of course. Wondering what the attendance level, selection, and prices will be at this point.

Been lusting after a 44 Magnum lever action carbine as of late.......

[dale2242]

I went to several sporting goods/ gun shops last week in Southern Oregon. I am seeing MORE loading components and ammo not less on the shelves. The only exception is primers. There still is not many showing up in this area.---dale

[uncle joe]

the shelves in wallyworld last night were well stocked (most I've seen in a long time) with all calibers. They also had hundred round boxes of shotgun shells on sale for about 20 bucks.
UJ

[Jim_Fleming]

There wasn't very much ammo on the shelves of the Wal-Mart store in Olean NY Saturday evening...

[armyrat1970]

Went into my local WallyWorld Sunday afternoon. NO pistol ammo. A lot of 22 but most all was in 100 or 50 round boxes and expensive. Had some bricks of Federal for nearly $40 a brick. No way. Some rifle ammo but did not give it much attention as I was looking for pistol. A lot of shotgun ammo though. Next time I go in if there is nothing else I want I will get a box of shotgun before it becomes scarce also.
Called a not so local gunshop last week looking for primers and he had nothing except shotgun and didn't know when he would be getting more in. I have enough to last me for awhile but if I can pick up a few hundred now and then I will.

[7.62Man]

North of the 49th (Canada) I am told is completely out of rifle primers amd powder is drying up for some types (H332 first to mind). Any thing pistol based you can still get because you need a license from hell to have. Good thing I have a 44mag lever so I can still get my primers and powder for this season. The other thing that is out of stock across the country is gas checks and this effects me more than the primer shortage.

The local Wal-mart has a few boxes of 30-06 but are out of 303brisith (most common moose gun up here) two boxes of 300win mag and many 12-20gauge boxes. The local stores also seem to have there selfs full of ammo.

Just our rifle reloading components have seemed to dried up, can't wait for things to return to normal.

[mike in co]

[QUOTE=Sprue;615025]In all seriousness....

But wouldn't it be another blow, to us, if only the manufactures were to loosen their belts a little to only tighten them up again for another round or bout of craziness. Sounds logical in this day and time.

QUOTE]

too conflicting statments...seriousness and claiming the manufactures cause/control the issue.

this is a stupid ststement.
the manufactures are running full bore producing all they can within equiptment limits.....10/12 hr days///6/7 days a week.
the manufacturers did not/do not control the the buying spreed caused by the election.
if thire is any "blame" it would belong to "change"....it was offered, it was voted for, the results for us was a change to our supplies. period

quit looking for someone to blame..

[WILCO]

I went to Wally World after hearing about them having 22LR from a guy at the club. Made it there at 12:30 am and they did indeed have ammo in stock.
555 rnds of Winchester for $15.97. Wound up with some anti-gunner type manager who had an attitude that was asking me what the ammo was for?
I simply said it's for a rifle, the stuff is hard to find and I'd like to purchase a box.
He said he would get right back to me and after a few minutes, he returned to say that there was no key available to the display cabinet and that I'd have to come back later. Heading out there now........:killingpc

[358wcf]

We are seeing a slow, but steady improvement in the ammo and primer situation in Sunny California-- No, the libs in our county won't let Walmart sell ammo, not at all- Very, very few places to walk in and purchase ammo, forcing you to use the internet-- interesting?
Anyway, a few weeks ago the shelves were bare, no primers at all, no pistol/revolver ammo at all, and especially NO 22LR!! None to be had-
I've noticed a small but steady increase in availability of pistol ammo, and some hunting rifle ammo as well- seems to be lots of 223 on the shelves for some reason too. Never been a shortage of shotshells- dove season is coming, and that traditionally uses lots of 12ga, and heralds the beginning of another fall hunting season with lots of shooters going to the range to "sight in" and pop off a box or so-
Local gun shows are showing tables of primers, at about $40/brick, limited to two bricks per buyer-- not a bad situation at all compared to a few months ago.
Let's hope we see further improvement in supply--

358wcf

[Junior1942]

WILCO, I wish you had immediately asked to see the store manager.

[WILCO]

WILCO, I wish you had immediately asked to see the store manager.

I didn't think of it as I was focused on finding other items for the house......

[GabbyM]

I agree with mike in co completely.

Also it's hard for me to see this “shortage” since I've managed to spend over $1K on reloading supplies in July. I could care less if big box stores have anything on their shelves.

If their's any problems in Canada I'd blame that on their oppressive gun control laws. Fear of similar law is what's driving this rush to buy here in the USA.

I can't blame anyone for stocking up on abut anything. Heard yesterday the pro's want to tax coffee along with soda and about anything else. The dollar is set to take a plunge in value which will make ammo very expensive. Metals used in manufacture are a commodity just like gold. Not based on the value of the dollar. Chinese are already starting to rumble about what they see as a plan by the BO admin to devalue the dollar to diminish value of debt owed them.

This devaluation will also wipe out my pension owed to me when I retire in twelve years. It's set at X $ per month per year of service. Those X dollars wont buy a bag of cap and trade taxed groceries once Obama is done with the dollar. That's how Communist work for the working class. Closets full of ammo won't do us any good.

[TAWILDCATT]

I went in to Simpsons hardware and the shelves were loaded with rifle and shotgun ammo,the clerk said no pistol ammo came in.
I donrt care as I have plenty as I dont shoot 100s a week.I want accuracy and I shoot enuf to keep my eye in.bullseye is the way to go.all the rest is just games.
they wondered why I needed 90 acres when I moved here.so did I but it was the best piece of land I could find.now with 30 deer in the field and a large garden,I know why. and lakes with BIG catfish and stripers,we are complete.plenty farms around for vegtables.

[Mtman314]

TAwildcatt
If I was you I'd still put in a good supply of heirloom seeds and also keep a decent tiller on hand with plenty of wire fencing to surround a garden just in case. Deer have a tendency to disappear into folks freezers when there is a food shortage. I would never ever base living off the land without backup plans.

[outdoorfan]

Yeah, I think you can kiss the deer goodbye in the time of a crisis/shortage of food. The garden is what counts. But you still have to defend that.

[WILCO]

I went back and managed to purchase some Winchester 22LR from Wally World today. Also found out that they ask what the ammo is for because if you say "pistol" you're supposed to show a pistol permit. If you say "rifle" they just sell it to you.

How stupid is that??????

[rhead]

TAwildcatt
If I was you I'd still put in a good supply of heirloom seeds and also keep a decent tiller on hand with plenty of wire fencing to surround a garden just in case. Deer have a tendency to disappear into folks freezers when there is a food shortage. I would never ever base living off the land without backup plans.



+1 add a canner also. Freezer may be unreliable if Waxman/ Markey goes into effect.
power shortages/rationing and outrageous prices for fuel and electricity may be the norm. It would be good to be able to grow a variety of spices and tobacco as trade goods. Stockpile a few hundred pounds of salt, saltlicks are there but it will be labor and time intensive. By all means do not have the hardware for a still in hand, that would be against the law and whiskey would have no trade value at all.!

[squid1230]

TAWILDCAT - care to sever off ten acres?? Up here in Canada, rifle reloading items are purely rumour, but pistol stuff is still scattered here and there. I live in Toronto, the most liberal gun hating city north of the 49th parallel. Looking to move further north on some acrerage, become self sustaining and watch the world fold like a house of cards on top of their heads from the comfort of my porch with my m14 in my lap. Ten acres in SC would do in a pinch ;)

[Mtman314]

I went back and managed to purchase some Winchester 22LR from Wally World today. Also found out that they ask what the ammo is for because if you say "pistol" you're supposed to show a pistol permit. If you say "rifle" they just sell it to you.

How stupid is that??????

up here if you say pistol they ask if you are over 21 but for a rifle it's just sold.

[Texasflyboy]

Economics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics)

Supply & Demand (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand)

Note the graph on the right side of the page.

Demand goes up, Supply goes up, prices tend to stay the same.

Demand goes up, supply remains fixed, prices tend to go up.

Demand goes up, supply drops, prices tend to increase.

Demand goes up, supply drops to zero, demand will sometimes fall. (You can't buy what ain't for sale)

Demand goes down, supply goes up, prices tend to fall.

Demand goes down, supply goes down, prices tend to remain fixed.


For commercial ammunition and reloading supply it looks like this:

Commercial ammunition & reloading supplies have elastic demand and relatively inelastic supply.

Ammunition and reloading components are a specialty item with fewer than six Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM's) in the USA. These OEM's have demand data going back to the 1800's in some cases (Remington/Winchester). Their historical customer demand is a relatively stable, repeatable curve. These OEM's plan their production based on this very reliable demand data. So, in order to meet this demand, they base annual production on this very reliable demand number. They are not guessing.

In comes a buying panic. Suddenly, demand shoots up like a ski jump. And the supply line is pretty steady. These OEM's have been feeding the supply line steadily based on their annual prediction. Demand now exceeds supply. Shortages abound.

Customers wonder "Why won't these OEM's meet the new demand?"

Well, why should they? Demand is temporary, based on historical data. If your customers buy 500% of their needs in 1/10 of the normal time, should you increase production to meet this need? You will be shortly out of business should you do so.


You, the OEM then think "If I increase production to meet demand, does this mean that consumption will increase? Will all this extra supply be consumed, or hoarded away for some rainy day? And if hoarded, will future demand be impacted? Will my customers buy today a 10 year supply of ammunition or reloading components, and therefore my demand in one year will drop, and ....on and on and on this scenario can go. See the dilemma?

As an OEM, balancing demand and supply is an art form. More so when you are dealing with as passionate a subject as ammunition and reloading supplies.

If, and I mean If I were an OEM like Winchester or Federal or Remington, I would strictly adhere to my supply schedule and not respond to temporary swings in demand. I would have faith in my historical data.

I give you Robert Shiller as an excellent example of the relationship between supply and demand and the current economic crisis:

Robert Shiller @ Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Shiller)

[Storydude]

I went to Wally World after hearing about them having 22LR from a guy at the club. Made it there at 12:30 am and they did indeed have ammo in stock.
555 rnds of Winchester for $15.97. Wound up with some anti-gunner type manager who had an attitude that was asking me what the ammo was for?
I simply said it's for a rifle, the stuff is hard to find and I'd like to purchase a box.
He said he would get right back to me and after a few minutes, he returned to say that there was no key available to the display cabinet and that I'd have to come back later. Heading out there now........:killingpc

Let me guess, Cheektowaga Wallyworld? I've had it out many times with those idiots there.

[Jim_Fleming]

I wasn't going to post my experience with stupid NY State laws, but I ran into the same inane logic...

If I'd've said pistol, I would have had to produce a New York State CCW permit to buy it. Fortunately I knew the proper answer...

It felt danged peculiar knowing I was committing a felony... I didn't like it a darned bit...

From now own I'll not buy the ammo in Olean, NY, instead I'll drive three miles less and buy the goods in Bradford PA.

It's just that we like shopping in Olean better...



I went back and managed to purchase some Winchester 22LR from Wally World today. Also found out that they ask what the ammo is for because if you say "pistol" you're supposed to show a pistol permit. If you say "rifle" they just sell it to you.

How stupid is that??????

[jleneave]

I have been checking all the local Walmarts in my area (4 stores within a 30 min. drive) since the end of Jan./ 1st of Feb. for bulk packaged .22lr ammo without being able to find so much as a single round. About 3 weeks ago I went with my wife grocery shopping at one of the Walmarts and was pleasantly surprised to find 2 boxes of Winchester HV bulk packaged .22lr ammo (500 rnds/box). I bought both boxes. Then about 2 weeks ago I again went with the old lady to one of the other Walmarts and found 3 boxes of Federal .22lr bulk packaged ammo (550 rnds/box) and bought all 3 boxes. Then a couple days ago I was at yet another Walmart and when I arrived at the counter in the sporting goods dept. there was a guy buying a box of Remington bulk packaged .22lr ammo (550 rnds/box). They had 2 boxes left and I bought both boxes. Hopefully this means the shortage is coming to an end?! They did cost a little more than they did before all this crap started. Oh yeah, before everyone starts getting on to me for hoarding I shared this ammo with a few friends that also have not been able to locate any .22lr ammo. If what the original poster said comes to pass I will wish I had kept it all for myself.
As for reloading components primers are still next to impossible to locate and what little I have been able to find had purchase limits on them. Powder is not nearly as hard to find.
Take care,
Jody

[9.3X62AL]

I think Texas Fly Boy nailed it.

Hoarding/panic buying causes these "shortages"--my belief. People need to calm down a bit, maybe. We survived that airhead Jimmy Carter, and the current bevy of empty suits sure as hell aren't the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

Breathe, folks.

[Recluse]

I think Texas Fly Boy nailed it.

Hoarding/panic buying causes these "shortages"--my belief. People need to calm down a bit, maybe. We survived that airhead Jimmy Carter, and the current bevy of empty suits sure as hell aren't the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

Breathe, folks.

Been my theory since Day One, regardless of WHICH idiot is polluting the White House.

FINALLY some Americans are getting wise to the fraud known as Barack Obama and poll numbers are irrefutably reflecting that. Good news and bad alike.

Good news that all the BS is starting to be seen for what it is. Bad news in that desperate rats do desperate things, plus, even more worrisome to me, is that it could have an apathetic effect on the 2010 elections.

When/if Congress and the Senate are taken back over by conservatives (not necessarily Democrats, but conservatives), gun-owners will begin to feel much better and start SHOOTING the ammo they have stashed instead of polishing it and worshipping it.

:coffee:

[looseprojectile]

A few years ago I bought .22 ammo when it was on sale for $7.77 a box of 550.
I have survived with about a dozen boxes. All is good. The only primers I am short of are large pistol cause of the pin shooting spurt last fall.
My panic is because of the threat of the decline of the value of the dollar.
The advertising on the tube says to invest in GOLD. Why are the people that are holding gold trying so hard to sell it? I bought some silver when it was less than five bucks. It is hard to separate myself from my dollars at the price of gold today.

The panic sets in when I think about, what if gold does double from the present price? I may really regret not having bought gold with at least half of my meager savings. I am currently getting one half of one percent interest on those FRNs. [passbook account].
In 1979 it was not hard to find someone paying twenty percent interest, or more. I see this as a decline of forty times the earnings. I guess .50% is better than a loss but not worth risking a bank holiday. I don't expect to get or follow advice from people that I don't know here, I just wanted to relate my feelings on the market and comiserate a little. Reloading components are important though there is a larger picture to consider.
Life is good

[klcarroll]

.......Been my theory since Day One, regardless of WHICH idiot is polluting the White House.


Yup! .......My feelings exactly!

A Politician is a Politician: .....If you turn them upside-down, ...they all look alike!


Kent

[Shiloh]

I have acquired small pistol primers, and some small rifle. A brick of WSP and 500 CCI SR
they are starting to tricke in. Bought two bricks of CCI blazer .22lr and there was plenty more on the shelf.

Wally-World had .40 S&W but no 9mm or .380. Had a small supply of .38 hardball and some .357 125gr. soft point. They also had .45 ACP Hardball.

Shiloh